waiting for the other shoelace to drop: 2013-2014 NBA regular season thread (part 2)

yup. every dynasty, like the pacers, will hit a few rough spots now and again. that's the price of having won title-after-title.

Ethan Strauss ‏@SherwoodStrauss -- Every major collapsing team is the crash scene from Flight to me. Not sure who Pacers Denzel is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nhxm5QEbYI …

btw, don't watch the embedded scene, or the movie it's from, if you're anxious about flying.

http://m.espn.go.com/nba/story?storyId=10740818

this look intersting. they're sort of vague with regard to what the methodology really is, but it looks like it does a much better job of controlling for lineup effects than other +/- systems

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

lol RPM loves nick collison too this dude is some kind of warlock i swear

iggy feelin it

manuuuu obvi

http://i.imgur.com/bbHSXxv.png

bledsoe can be more "valuable" cause hes younger but nowhere near the level of dragooooon cmon

having seen bledsoe play live now all I can really say is dude's game is singular.

bledsoe brings legit disruptive defense at both backcourt positions, undervalued skill, puts him ahead of the dragon srynotsry

aw man, dan gilbert's gonna do something completely insane this summer

CtB: Is whatever the Cleveland version of Phil Jackson out there?

BW: Isiah Thomas wants the job really bad. He’s pretty much out in New York. His influence is over. He’s met with Gilbert a couple of times – they had lunch or dinner together – and he really wants it. I think Gilbert is charmed by him, as everyone else is.

CtB: Pause for us all to light ourselves on fire.

BW: I don’t think Dan’s going to go that route. Dan is interested in Chauncey Billups, but I don’t think you can turn the team over to a guy [with no experience]. GM is job that you have to be groomed for. But I think he’d like a guy who could bring a fresh perspective and has some clout like that. David Griffin doesn’t.

http://www.cavstheblog.com/?p=25410&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

i would personally pay four figures for dan gilbert to make chauncey billups GM

isiah or bust

damn, windhorst is going ham

CtB: Last question: so there’s been a lot written this year about Kyrie being unhappy in Cleveland – that he wants to leave as soon as possible. A lot of people in Cleveland particularly have criticized that line of story for being the equivalent of picking at a scab, at the very best, to just plain not being newsworthy when the team has control over him for as long as they do. What’s your response to that criticism?

BW: 2010 taught me a lot of lessons and I’m applying them the way I’m covering the LeBron free agency. I’ve written a lot of stuff this year that in 2010 I’d have been like, “What’s the point of writing that? It’s not going to happen.” Well…

And, as far as Kyrie, rumblings and stuff, with LeBron I would have let it go. Well I’m not going to let it go [now]. I’m going to talk about it and here’s the truth:

The truth is [Kyrie’s] camp has been putting out there for years – years – that he doesn’t want to be in Cleveland. That they don’t want him in Cleveland. He doesn’t like Mike Brown. He didn’t like Chris Grant. He doesn’t like Dion Waiters. He’s already gotten a General Manager fired. He might get Mike Brown fired. This is the last time – once he signs he loses all of his leverage – so this is the last time he gets to enact leverage. I know he’s said all the right things so, fine, on July 1, when they offer a max contract – which they will – and I don’t even know if he’s a max player, but you have to sign him – sign a five year, no out. That’s what a max contract is. A max contract is five years, no out. If you want out or you want three years, that’s not a max contract. You want three years? Okay, we’ll give you $12 million a year. We’re not giving you the full thing.

I’m just giving you my feel right now and my feel is that he’s not crazy about [signing the full max extension] unless he gets everything checked off across the board.

And the other thing is: if the Cavs ever dream of having LeBron, it’s not going to be with Kyrie there. LeBron and Kyrie have drifted apart in the last few years, even to the point that if the Cavs wanted to get LeBron they would maybe trade Kyrie for someone who would fit better with LeBron. And I’m not making that up. That line of thinking was not originated by me. That’s just the truth.

Now, Kyrie has been very upset by this stuff but, whether he wants to acknowledge it or not, it exists out there and I’m just saying the way it is. I’m sure Cavs fans are upset about it. The Cavs are upset about it. When I’ve written about it, the Cavs have been like “Why does this stuff have to be written about us?” I say, “It has to be written about you because this could happen.”

I think this is very elementary from Dan Gilbert’s perspective. If Kyrie wants to play for Team USA, he’s going to have to do his deal before mid-July when he goes to play for it and he’ll either take the five years or he won’t. If the answer is “no” to five years, he goes on the trade block. Period. I think it’s pretty simple.

I thought I knew Kyrie, but he’s just disappointed me this year with his immaturity. I really do think that if he will lock up for five that you have to do that. But if he starts messing around playing power games, you’ve got to trade him. Dan Gilbert has said as much. At the end of the day, if Kyrie was really a max player, this Cavs team would not be where they are. He would have carried them to much more than this. I’m not saying he has to be LeBron, but he’s only spent one day of his career above .500. I know it’s unpopular for some people, but after 2010 I’m not in the business of messing around. It’s definitely out there in the NBA that Kyrie is not happy in Cleveland – but if that’s not the case, he has a golden opportunity to prove everybody wrong and that opportunity is coming in a few months.

Gilbert is charmed by him, as everyone else is.

haha. isiah is like the benjamin bratt character on modern family; a charming rogue who you rely on at your peril. who will also possibly get your organization embroiled in a sexual-harassment lawsuit.

What if you hired Isiah but restricted him to the draft

His trade/draft history is a fun read

http://hoopshype.com/general_managers/isiah_thomas.htm

Roy Hibbert/14
11,1 ppg - 6,7 rpg - 1,1 apg - 0,4 apg - 2,3 bpg - 3,4 fpg - 1,9 tpog - 44,9% fg

Shawn Bradley/01
7,1 ppg - 7,4 rpg - 0,5 apg - 0,4 spg - 2,8 bpg - 3,1 fpg - 1,1 topg - 49% fg

yeah but show "hibbert v. the heat," where he's like 72 PPG; 27 RPG; and 7 APG.

ppl are gonna look back and wonder why roy was on magazine covers in late 2013

yeah but show "hibbert v. the heat," where he's like 72 PPG; 27 RPG; and 7 APG.

eeh, try 12-6-1 in the regular season against the Heat in 20 games and 18-11-1 over 13 playoff games against them whilst averaging 14-10-1 in all playoff appearances.

WHAT I WAS SURE HE WAS AVERAGING 72 PPG V. THE HEAT IDGI?

well, it seems like that's what he's averaging v. the heat, i'll say that.

Yeah was just drawing attention to the fact that the idea of him showing out against the heat is a little overblown.

you're not taking into account daniel's Indiana Pacers Distortion Field

Roy Hibbert/14
11,1 ppg - 6,7 rpg - 1,1 apg - 0,4 apg - 2,3 bpg - 3,4 fpg - 1,9 tpog - 44,9% fg

Shawn Bradley/01
7,1 ppg - 7,4 rpg - 0,5 apg - 0,4 spg - 2,8 bpg - 3,1 fpg - 1,1 topg - 49% fg

― moullet, Monday, April 7, 2014 11:41 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Bradley is one of the most underrated players ever tho.

yeah 2.8bpg is nothing to shake your head at. bradley is 9th in career bpg.

congrats detroit

hibbert is a world class defender, obvs his best skill, tho maybe not so much recently

but when hes on his game he is v effective and worth it

Maybe not quite as much when this starts coming into play
http://hardwoodparoxysm.com/2014/03/31/nba-emphasizes-the-vertical-in-verticality-with-new-officiating-memo/

lol on that isiah thomas link

"Executive of the Year: Never"

yeah they def went a lil off the rails w verticality for a min but i dont see the adjustment making like too huge of a deal

one thing that interesting is that its basically impossible to raise yr arms directly vertical or at least a more natural position is for them to be some what angled forward

ILH in a holding pattern, waiting for the playoffs to start. Even the battle for the Western Conference 7 & 8 spots doesn't seem to occupy our thoughts. We even seem to be tired of Paul George as a whipping boy and have moved on to Roy Hibbert.

Let the playoffs begin, dear lord! We are in need of succor.

I'm in standard Knicks malaise

let us playoff

don't Memphis, Dallas, and Phoenix play something like a round robin right before the season ends? That'll be good watching.

yeah, and they each have some tough games besides the "round-robin," e.g., memphis plays miami; dallas and phoenix play the spurs.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10747126/nba-types-players-do-real-plus-minus-like

can someone post this?

A few of RPM's favorite things
Stretch 4s and thieves among the categories that are real plus-minus values
Updated: April 8, 2014, 3:09 PM ET
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider

Everybody has a type, and ESPN's new real plus-minus is no exception.
The beauty of RPM is that its assessment of players isn't made on assumptions about value, as with most popular box score metrics such as PER, WARP and Win Shares. Instead, RPM goes by what happened when the player is on the court or on the bench, adjusted for teammates and opponents. So it starts as an unbiased measure of player value.
More on ESPN.com

• New stats: Real plus-minus leaders
• Ilardi: Introducing real plus-minus
• Pelton: Meet the RPM All-Stars 
• Pelton: RPM's favorite players 
At the same time, RPM results do reveal certain trends, including types of players that rate well, or poorly, due to common characteristics.
Taking a look at those groups can help us understand what really matters in terms of winning and losing in the NBA.
In the spirit of the popular dating apps, in which users anonymously rate potential mates by either swiping right (to indicate interest) or swiping left (to pass), let's take a look at what RPM would say when various types of players pop up on the screen.

Swiping right

• Nonscoring big men
Examples: Nick Collison (+5.8), Amir Johnson (+4.8), Taj Gibson (+4.1)
Collison and Johnson were both members of my RPM All-Star team, but they're not alone among big men with pedestrian scoring averages -- or worse -- who come out well by RPM's measurement. Gibson also is in the top 20, as is Anderson Varejao (+4.1).
The obvious common factor here is defense. Box score stats have a tough time crediting these players for their contributions since they're not elite shot-blockers. But another factor is the ability to set good screens. Gibson and Johnson both appeared on Amin Elhassan's list of the NBA's best screeners. Freeing teammates with picks is a skill that's completely invisible in the box score, but it's one that RPM is capable of picking up.
• Floor-spacing big men
Examples: Ryan Anderson (+1.9), Matt Bonner (+2.8), Channing Frye (+4.1)


Like Anderson, Channing Frye rates well in RPM because of his floor-spacing abilities.
Defense isn't the reason stretch 4s make RPM numbers jump. Instead, these players generally rate well offensively. Anderson and Frye both rank in the NBA's top 20 in offensive RPM, with Bonner in the top 30. (Steve Novak of the Toronto Raptors, a more limited member of this group, also rates solidly above average on offense.) That's partially due to their efficient scoring, especially in the case of the more prolific Anderson.
However, RPM also credits stretch big men for the way their shooting opens up the floor for teammates. RPM co-creator Jeremias Engelmann recently posted adjusted shooting ratings that measure the impact players have had on their teammates' true shooting percentage. Frye is the lone big man near the top of those rankings who isn't an All-Star, while Bonner also rates as having a notably positive influence.
• Players with high steal rates
Examples: Monta Ellis (+1.9), Ricky Rubio (+3.9), Josh Smith (+2.0)
Larceny isn't typically a desirable characteristic in a mate, but RPM seeks it out. Rubio is an RPM All-Star, while Ellis and Smith both rate better than their reputations would suggest. But this trend is bigger than just types. Of basic skill statistics (not including stats that rate combinations of skills such as true shooting percentage), only 2-point percentage correlates more closely with RPM than steal rate.
That backs up recent research by FiveThirtyEight.com's Benjamin Morris, who found that steals are more valuable to teams than any other counting stat in the box score. It's unclear whether this is because steals are so inherently valuable or because they serve to indicate other skills -- steals actually correlate better with offensive RPM than defense -- but either way, one of RPM's first chat questions will always be, "Do you like to steal?"

Swiping left

• Score-first point guards
Examples: D.J. Augustin (-4.7), Aaron Brooks (-4.0), Brandon Jennings (-4.4)


Mine. Ball all mine. RPM does not like ballhog PGs like Brandon Jennings.
There's one other skill statistic that correlates as well with RPM as steals, and that's assists, which is the strongest single factor in offensive RPM. That's bad news for point guards who tend to rack up relatively few of them.
The other common factor among Augustin, Brooks and Jennings is that they're poor, undersized defenders. While some point guards, such as Ramon Sessions (-1.4), can compensate at the other end, this group's offensive ratings are much worse than the average point guard. RPM simply isn't impressed by their volume scoring, which generally doesn't translate to wins.
• Rookies
If you thought I was harsh on this season's rookie class last week, stay away from RPM's ratings. Of RPM's bottom 11 players who have seen at least 500 minutes of action, four are rookies:Anthony Bennett (-5.3), Ben McLemore (-5.4), Tony Snell (-5.5) and Archie Goodwin (-5.9). That's the same number of rookies that RPM rates as above-average contributors: Ryan Kelly(+2.3), Trey Burke (+1.4), Matthew Dellavedova (+1.3) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+0.4).
Though those ratings are partially a comment on this season's rookie class, in general young players tend to rate worse by RPM than their box score stats because of their difficulty in getting up to speed on defense. As a result, RPM tends to prefer older players.
• Philadelphia 76ers
RPM probably isn't going to find romance in the City of Brotherly Love. At its heart, RPM is divvying up credit for team performance among the players on the court. Alas, there hasn't been much credit to go around in Philadelphia this season. Therefore, it's only natural that the two worst players in RPM wins above replacement (factoring in minutes played and replacement level) are Sixers guards Tony Wroten (-4.9 WAR) and Elliot Williams (-4.2).
Byron Mullens (-1.4) and Hollis Thompson (-1.3) are also near the bottom of the league, whileMichael Carter-Williams (-1.0) rates much worse than he does by box score stats. Ultimately, RPM rates just one Sixers player as better than average: lone veteran holdover Thaddeus Young(+6.8 WAR).

tinder jokes :(

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mcea5aSoKgo#t=296

very very important update

(at about 4:55 if timecode embedding doesn't work on ilx)

lmao

luv manimal http://grantland.com/the-triangle/kenneth-faried-manimal-evolution-denver-nuggets

Dikimbe laughing at the end is absolutely confirmation that some variant of "who wants to sex Mutombo" is totally true also he is all-time hilarious and Adam silver needs to undo the bans on the finger wag and the cassell big ballz dance ASAP

otm

having seen bledsoe play live now all I can really say is dude's game is singular.

― Clay, Monday, April 7, 2014 2:59 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I tol u glad u enjoyed the Bledsoe, he really is one of those guys it's hard to get the full impact of without seeing him live

rule if u do the big ball dance but then someone finger wags u yr swag from the dance is counteracted