waiting for the other shoelace to drop: 2013-2014 NBA regular season thread (part 2)

glad harden is back on track

yeah all bad defense is glossed over and pardoned when you have numbers like that

a brow future

Tracking Anthony Davis' greatness
All numbers show Pelicans' big man will be NBA's best player in time
Updated: February 26, 2014, 12:45 PM ET
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider

Anthony Davis seems destined to be the NBA's best player at some point later this decade.
Since before Andrew Wiggins & Co. even played a college game, the hype around this year's crop of NCAA freshmen has been unprecedented because of what they might someday become in the NBA. But what if the next great player is already in the league? The numbers say he is.

Anthony Davis' NBA career hasn't exactly taken place in obscurity. He was the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft and was one of two second-year players chosen for the All-Star Game earlier this month. While the New Orleans Pelicans' national TV appearances tonight and Friday are just their second and third of the season, Davis has made the Pelicans favorites on NBA League Pass.

Still, the enormity of Davis' ability hasn't necessarily sunk in. He has demonstrated the potential to be not just one of the best players in the league, but the very best -- and one of the best players ever.

Precocious success

Davis won't be able to celebrate Mardi Gras in a bar, since he doesn't turn 21 until March 11. He's still more than two years younger than Damian Lillard of the Portland Trail Blazers, the other sophomore All-Star, and more than a year younger than Creighton forward Doug McDermott, this season's likely NCAA Player of the Year.

At every point since he enrolled at Kentucky, Davis has been ahead of his peers at the same age. Remember, Davis and Kevin Durant are the lone two freshmen ever to win the Naismith and Wooden awards, a feat that appears unlikely to be repeated this season. Davis capped his season by leading the Wildcats to the title and joining Carmelo Anthony and Pervis Ellison as the three freshmen to win Most Outstanding Player in the last 70 years.

Though Davis' rookie season was hampered by a series of injures, he still managed to post the best PER ever by a player in his age-19 season (as determined by age on Feb. 1), per Basketball-Reference.com. Davis is repeating the feat this year among 20-year-olds. Even more impressive is the list if we open it up to players 21 and younger, allowing the inclusion of players who spent more than two seasons in college.

http://i.imgur.com/UtTpRrT.png

Davis already ranks third, trailing Shaquille O'Neal's second season and LeBron James' third, and is ahead of some of the NBA's brightest stars, including any of Durant's first three years, Magic Johnson's first two or Michael Jordan's rookie campaign. Of the seven previous players to surpass a 25 PER by their age-21 season, all of them won MVPs except Durant (who might this season) and John Drew (whose career was limited and eventually ended by cocaine addiction). That's the kind of elite company in which Davis should be considered.

The one caveat

So far, Davis' team impact doesn't seem to be as large as his individual statistics would suggest. Different versions of regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM), which adjust New Orleans' performance with and without Davis for his teammates and opponents, shows him as an average contributor (via the Talking Practice blog) or worse (via from NBA consultant Jeremias Engelmann).

Both versions agree that, despite his blocks, Davis remains a below-average defender. That makes sense in the context of the Pelicans' leaky defense, which ranks just outside the league's bottom five in points allowed per possession. Davis has been unable to overcome the New Orleans' defensive scheme.

Poor plus-minus is hardly surprising for a young player, let alone alarming. The most similar example is Durant, who rated 1.5 points worse than average per 100 possessions in his second season, per Engelmann. That famously prompted former NBA consultant Wayne Winston to say on TrueHoop he wouldn't want Durant on his team. By his third season, Durant looked like a superstar in both box score and plus-minus measures. If Davis continues to lag next season, there will be cause for concern. For now, it's part of the development process.

Projecting forward

Davis is four and a half years younger than Durant, a slightly larger gap than the one between Durant and James. As Durant has played his way into the question of the league's best player this season, Davis could do the same sometime late this decade. Consider the graphic below on how his rapid development tracks with James and Durant early in their careers.

http://i.imgur.com/d6EadUE.jpg

The most surprising aspect of the long-term outlook for Davis from my SCHOENE projection system is that he could eventually flirt with 30 points per game. That prospect makes a bit more sense in the context of how other big men have developed late as scorers.

Davis is most frequently compared to Kevin Garnett, another lanky, athletic post player. At the same age, however, Davis is far ahead of Garnett (who topped out at 24.2 points per game) as a scorer. He's averaging 20.6 points per 36 minutes this season, a leap of 3.7 from his rookie campaign. During his second year, Garnett's per-36 average was just 16.0 points, and he didn't surpass 20 until his fifth campaign and age 23.

It's not just Garnett. Kevin Love, the league's highest-scoring big man at 26.5 PPG, averaged 17.7 points per 36 minutes in his second season. The only post player to outscore Davis at the same age in the past three decades was O'Neal, who averaged 22.2 points per 36 minutes as a rookie.

Imagine that Davis develops into a top-5 scorer, a game-changing defender and a dominant rebounder. The flashes of brilliance he demonstrates on a nightly basis make that easy, if you try. That's Davis' MVP-caliber upside, one he's right on track to reaching.

Anthony Davis seems destined to be the NBA's best player at some point later this decade.

http://i.imgur.com/NbDxMRE.png

Normally there's nothing less funny than Simmons trying to be funny but this actually made me chuckle

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nba-bag-volume-1/

Q: After porn star Ava Devine offered to have sex with every player on the Cavs team if they made the playoffs, they won 5 in a row before tailing off. How is this not a bigger story? How would you rank the current Cavs roster, in order from least likely to most likely, to follow-up on this offer should the Cavs make the playoffs? Anthony Bennett has to be most likely, right?
—Jim, Cleveland

SG: Since it’s the NBA, I’m going with “every player is the most likely.” But I’m glad you brought this up. Lord knows I’ve made enough “God Hates Cleveland” jokes, but if the Cavs are making a crazy playoff push during that final week, can you imagine First Take right before the 82nd game?

Stephen A: I don’t care what the girl said, I don’t care how well the Cleveland Cavaliers happen to be playing right now … YOU CANNOT PROMISE SEX ACTS AS COMPENSATION FOR AN ACCOMPLISHED DEED, that is absolutely ILLEGAL! That is prostitution, Skip! The Cleveland Cavaliers CANNOT CASH IN THAT OFFER! I do not CARE if she made it, I do not CARE if she wants to deliver it, I do not CARE if she wants to keep it DISCREET! That offer has to go by the wayside. Adam Silver CANNOT allow those shenanigans in the National Basketball Association.

Skip: I’m gonna go the other way, Stephen A.

Stephen: No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Skip: Lemme finish!

Stephen: No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Skip: Lemme finish!

Stephen: No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Skip: Lemme finish!

Stephen: No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Skip: Lemme finish!

Stephen: No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Skip: Lemme finish!

Stephen: No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Skip: Lemme finish!

Stephen: No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Skip: Lemme finish!

Stephen: No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Skip: Lemme finish!

Stephen: No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Skip: Lemme finish, please.

Stephen: Go ahead.

Skip: An offer was made. Terms were set. The Cavaliers are close to achieving those terms.

Stephen: No! NO, SKIP! NO!

Skip: Ava Devine is a consenting adult. The Cavaliers are consenting adults.

Stephen: Not Anthony Bennett!

Skip: He’s 20!

Stephen: HE CAN’T DRINK YET!

Skip: He’s 20, and if he wants to have sex with Ava Devine, you can’t stop him and neither can I!

(QUICK CUT TO THE TEST PATTERN.)

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/the-nba-started-selling-jason-collins--no--98-brooklyn-nets-jersey--and-it-was-the-league-s-best-seller-in-its-first-day-051527456.html

this is awesome

wow bitchin

Mark Medina ‏@MarkG_Medina 4m

Wesley Johnson is guarding Marc Gasol tonight, not Zach Randolph

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/the-nba-started-selling-jason-collins--no--98-brooklyn-nets-jersey--and-it-was-the-league-s-best-seller-in-its-first-day-051527456.html

this is awesome

― Clay, Wednesday, February 26, 2014 6:17 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

<3

Kinda shocked that a team didn't try to grab him earlier if just for business reasons, like the fuck do half of these teams care about their last roster spot atm in the season.

Also Kevin Pelton otm, although don't think it's very challopsy to point out. Not a stretch to say that, if you were building a team for the next five years, the top three to build around would be LeBron - Durant - Davis.

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/19gw3ww6rkt8epng/ku-xlarge.png

blazers and bulls basically inverses

I think the Magic and Sixers should consider firing their coaches

dirk hurt.

not even sure what happened. didn't look like was any contact. but he grabbed his arm, and went back to the locker-room.

dirk is a durable dude

fine german engineering

dirk and bosh should return to the long-hair look.

the pelicans are playing both luke babbit and alexis ajinca right now

they expected to contend for the playoffs this year

and anthony davis left the game with a shoulder injury

babbit just passed to ajinca for a dunk and hubie reacted like his 17 year old grandsons just scored on an nba team

wait luke babbit is back in the league!?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10521480/nba-chandler-parsons-developed-bona-fide-elite-player

can someone post this?

LPA Cavs/Thunder

nm, didn't forsee Spencer Hawes taking over the game.

of the players with the 10 worst TS%s in the league, Milwaukee has 3

oh wait they traded ridnour, so now Charlotte has 3 haha

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pi/shareit/SfGPl

John Salmons, 185 bad shots this season.

The rise of Chandler Parsons
Rockets forward has developed into one of the game's best big wings
Updated: February 26, 2014, 3:29 PM ET
By David Thorpe | ESPN Insider
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What's the Deal with Chandler Parsons?

Is he special? Does he complement Dwight Howard and James Harden? David Thorpe examines.
NEXT VIDEO video
Where's The Love?

To the casual observer, the NBA is mostly filled with players who have been dominating their peers their entire lives. These players are taller, faster, stronger and, ultimately, better.

Watch NBA doubleheader on ESPN
Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans take on Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks, and James Harden and the Houston Rockets take on Chris Paul and the Clippers on ESPN tonight. WatchESPN: 8:00, 10:30 p.m. ET Video

The reality is the NBA isn't quite that.

Indeed, some players were simply among the best in their class through three or four years of high school then for a year or two in college before entering the NBA draft. But the vast majority of NBA players come of age a bit later. They were not necessarily top-level recruits when they entered high school (or in some cases, when they left high school), and they were not starters or stars as underclassmen while playing in college. But hard work, and perhaps a growth spurt and a filled-out physique, became these players' tickets to real success.

Houston Rockets forward Chandler Parsons personifies this particular type of NBA journey. He has grown from being a second-round steal (38th overall in 2011) to perhaps the most underrated player in the game today. He should be the president of the "Late Bloomers" club, and he just might be the X factor who can drive Houston toward an NBA Finals date with the Miami Heat or Indiana Pacers.

Here's a look at Parsons' basketball development and where he stacks up among the NBA's top players.

How Parsons developed

To be fair, Parsons isn't just a profile in hard work. College programs throughout the country are filled with players who have worked as hard as Parsons to improve their games, but few of them are 6-foot-9 with near-elite athleticism. So Parsons had some advantages built in.

Those advantages, though, did not carry him to great heights at first. He was perhaps the second- or third-best player on his high school team, a now legendary group that went to four high school final fours in Florida (winning one) and was led by surging NBA rookie Nick Calathes, a McDonald's All American point guard who went to Europe before coming stateside. Parsons and Calathes both went to Florida, where for three years Parsons teased fans with NBA potential and lukewarm production.

He had a great feel for the game, good ball skills and great basketball IQ, but the package it came in just did not do anything to make people think he would reach his pro potential. As a senior, though, that all changed dramatically. He played much more athletically and assertively and as a result captured 2011 SEC Player of the Year honors.

NBA teams worried about his "softness" and thought it was just a case of a 22-year-old beating up younger players. And that was indeed what he was doing. It's just that once he learned how to play that way, it didn't matter if the opponents were college kids or professionals. He had developed the confidence and aggressiveness to succeed.

Parsons has the tools to dominate almost anyone. Houston quickly realized it had its small forward of the future, and he has filled that role since his rookie season. The Rockets have more than just a starting small forward on perhaps the best-value contract in pro sports for anyone who is not a superstar; they have one of the few truly unique wings in the game today.

Parsons deserves respect

Scouts love to compare players, and with Parsons, his best comparisons are, believe it or not, LeBron James and Kevin Durant. He certainly is not at their level, nor will he likely ever actually achieve that level, but he is far more similar than different to these two superstars.

First look at their comparable sizes (all three are 6-8 or taller) and ballhandling skills. Each player has some talent as a passer. Durant has proved over the years that he can facilitate as well as dominate as a scorer. James is likely the second-best passer in history for a player his size (behind Magic Johnson). Parsons ranks in the top 10 in assist rate among small forwards this season and is third on that list for players 6-8 or taller (behind Nicolas Batum and Andrei Kirilenko).

Rockets
Andrew Richardson/USA TODAY Sports
Chandler Parsons should be considered among Houston's big three with James Harden and Dwight Howard.
Now factor in Parsons' driving and slashing ability. The NBA.com stats page lists "drives" as any time a player starts at least 20 feet away from the basket and ends up with a shot inside 10 feet. Parsons ranks third in scoring on that list behind Durant and James among players 6-8 or taller. Every other player who has scored more than Parsons on drives is a point guard, shooting guard or primary ball handler. Ty Lawson and John Wall are perhaps the league's fastest guards with the ball in their hands. Only that pair, along with Durant and James, have a higher field goal percentage on drives than Parsons (52.7 percent).

Throw in Parsons' low turnover rate (9.8) and we get a clear picture of a wing slasher with great size and the athleticism to produce an excellent finishing rate. He also can effectively deliver the ball to shooters or scorers when defenses cut him off. Carmelo Anthony and Luol Deng are the only small forwards who score more than 17.0 PPG with a lower turnover rate than Parsons.

In effect, Houston has a 6-9 wing who should be mentioned next to names like Anthony, James, Durant and Deng. Those players were top-seven picks in the NBA draft and All-Stars multiple times over. Yet Parsons never has been named to an All-Star team.

Based on pure talent, he's elite

Parsons has a very flat shot. Often the trajectory of the ball seems barely above 10 feet. Most great shooters get the ball much higher in the air before it begins its descent toward the rim. Not Parsons. Because of the flatness of his shot, it's even more impressive to see he is hovering around 40 percent from 3-point range this season, which ranks as his best shooting season.

I often define talent as "production minus mechanics." What is left from that simple equation must be raw talent, or how else can production be explained? Parsons is exhibiting real talent as a shooter, and when combined with his other physical and basketball skills, he emerges by all comparisons as an elite player. Just four players stand 6-8 or taller, average 17 PPG or better and make at least 39 percent of their 3-pointers: Dirk Nowitzki, Anthony, Durant and Parsons. (Ryan Anderson is normally in that group but has been limited to 22 games this season because of injury.)

While Parsons has put up numbers that place him alongside the game's top players in a few key categories, pure scoring is not one of them. With James Harden at the 2-guard spot and Dwight Howard inside, Parsons' role is a "be everything" kind of guy, and he is doing that exceptionally well as the numbers previously mentioned suggest.

The question of whether Parsons can score like Anthony, Durant and James must remain open for now. It does seem likely he has that in him. Perhaps a long-term injury to one of the other two stars could offer that opportunity to showcase more of his scoring skills.

Best bang for the buck
Player Team WARP Salary WARP$(million)
Isaiah Thomas SAC 8.1 $884,293 9.2
Chandler Parsons HOU 5.0 $926,500 5.4
Lance Stephenson IND 4.7 $1,005,000 4.7
Andre Drummond DET 9.8 $2,462,400 4.0
Patty Mills SAS 4.4 $1,133,950 3.9
James Johnson MEM 3.5 $947,907 3.7
Paul George IND 10.4 $3,282,003 3.2
Mike Scott ATL 2.4 $788,872 3.0
Jared Sullinger BOS 3.9 $1,365,720 2.9
P.J. Tucker PHX 2.5 $884,293 2.8
Or it's possible that in another season Parsons will choose to play somewhere else for more money and fame. He is one of the NBA's most cost-efficient players (see chart, courtesy of Kevin Pelton). Harden made the choice to leave Oklahoma City for more opportunity and spotlight, and as a result his scoring potential is starting to be realized.

The playoffs could be that time for Parsons to shine. In an atmosphere where defenses zero in on primary targets (Harden and Howard) and actions (pick-and-rolls) better than they can during the regular season, Parsons will explode as a scorer. Teams that choose to concentrate on Howard and Harden and make Parsons beat them could experience exactly that. If Parsons can repeatedly rise to the occasion, it is easy to see Houston winning the West.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qNeNzaD5YE

the nets are just abominably bad

ty moullet

i spent the afternoon watching old manu highlights, then played really well tonight

simmons called josh smith "one of the NBA's 10 best forwards" in his contracts column

what the fuck are you serious?

it wasn't even a big defense of smoove or anything it was kind of just a casual comment, like it wasn't a controversial thing to say or anything

this from the guy who says Kevin Love is a "fantasy player"

" At least when Detroit spent $54 million on Josh Smith, they were getting one of the NBA’s 10 best forwards … even if every Hawks fan within a 125-mile radius would have happily driven Josh to the airport."

this doesn't even compute

"I’m not sure he could have crept into that Barkley/Malone/Dirk/Pettit group of all-time power forwards (the cluster right below Bird and Elgin)"

Simmons thinks Bird is a PF? What the fuck is going on?

(he's talking about amare there btw)

pretty sure bird started at the four once mchale moved to the bench? bird was 6'9" and certainly guarded pf's as often as he didn't.

Mchale didn't move to the bench until 89, which is pretty late in the game as far as Bird's career is concerned

bird's power forwards were cornbread maxwell and kevin mchale and . . . anyone else?

yeah for some reason i think of mchale being sixth man by like 86 or so but i guess that's not the case.

You guys this Manu exploding shoe may be like next level injury protection technology. That thing may have saved his ankle from turning over!

Knicks-Heat tomorrow night, excited to see another heartbreaker

Watching Uncle Cliff Robinson on Survivor right now with the wife.

hah, keep me updated on cliff! I'm pretty interested in that but not enough to subject myself to CBS.

will do. not much action with him so far. he hugged his team and basically both arms wrapped all the way around like 5 people :)

if he does the uncle cliffy dance i will youtube the shit outta that

it's super early but jordan hamilton might be one of morey's best moves

they needed another good wing in the worst way