One of the more cutting phrases you'll hear around the league is "sign-and-retire" -- a reference to a player mailing it in after signing a big contract, knowing that he's getting paid no matter what.
That's always the unspoken risk in signing a player to a long-term deal, especially one who hasn't been paid yet -- will he still put in the same kind of effort when he's getting guaranteed big bucks that he did when he was trying to get the big bucks? Additionally, there's a more rational risk factor. A lot of players, no matter how motivated, don't work out as hard in their free-agent offseason for fear of an injury nixing their big payday. Not everybody is able to make up for the lost time.
It depends on how the player is wired, obviously, and what his motivations are, but correlations have shown the contract-year effect is real for players seeking their first big payday (particularly a study at last year's Sloan Conference). And we've seen some good examples already in the early part of this season.
I don't mean to tar all these guys with the sign-and-retire brush. There could be lots of reasons they're struggling, and many of them have nothing to do with motivation. But as a class, players in their first season post-payday can often produce substantial buyer's remorse. Let's just say this season has been no exception.
There have been successes, too, of course -- Nic Batum has proven worth Portland's investment, Goran Dragic is holding up his end of the bargain in Phoenix, George Hill has justified Indiana's faith in him and Jrue Holiday's hefty extension is paying dividends.
Nonetheless, we have quite a few cautionary tales as well. Let's start at the top.
Any survey of 2012 free-agent failures has to begin in Milwaukee, where a year ago the big buzzword was "Ersanity" after Ersan Ilyasova averaged a double-double in February, won conference player of the week, shot 45.5 percent on 3s for the season and finished with a 20.55 PER.
Now? It's more like "Ilya-coma." After signing a five-year, $40 million free-agent deal this summer ($32 million guaranteed), he has been perhaps the league's most disappointing player. Ilyasova's Odom-esque decline includes a 9.69 PER, a 35.3 percent mark from the floor and some shockingly bad defense. He already has lost his starting job, and in a humiliating 21-point loss to the Hornets Monday night, he was without a doubt the worst player on the court.
It's a mystery how he could fall this far this fast. But for whatever reason, the same guy who knocked down everything and fought like crazy under the basket a year ago now can't shoot, can't move and won't touch anybody.
He'll be trade-eligible on Jan. 15, and if he doesn't show dramatic improvement over the next month, well, let's just say the Bucks will be making some phone calls.
Alas, Ilyasova has some company. Several other players are working on their first big paydays and have produced underwhelming results thus far. Here are a few others whose newfound wealth has been accompanied by disappointing production:
Roy Hibbert, Pacers
Last year he made the All-Star team. This season he's shooting 39 percent. Yes, that's 39, like with a 3 at the beginning. He's a 7-foot-2 center. Enough said, obviously, but let's say some more. One can fairly wonder if Hibbert's shooting and rebounding numbers from a year ago were outliers, and the real Hibbert is a guy who will shoot in the mid-40s with modest free-throw rates and won't be anything like a go-to guy offensively.
There are positives here if you look hard enough -- defensively, he's really figured out how to use his size as a weapon and use positioning to mask his lack of mobility, and it's one reason Indy has been so good at that end. Still, Hibbert got a max contract in free agency over the summer, and the Portland Trail Blazers have to be breathing a sigh of relief that Indiana decided to match their offer. (Although technically Portland never tendered an offer sheet, it was because Indiana pre-emptively told Hibbert they'd match it.)
Jeff Green, Celtics
The reaction to his four-year, $34 million deal this summer was one of nearly universal bafflement, and that hasn't gone away in the wake of his modest start.
Green can score at a decent clip and is doing so again, averaging 16.5 points per 40 minutes, but his PER would be his lowest since his rookie year. Even playing with Rajon Rondo as a set-up man, he hasn't been particularly efficient because he's a weak long-range shooter and doesn't generate a ton of foul shots. Meanwhile, he doesn't bring a whole lot else to the table. In theory, he was supposed to provide a big wing who could help guard the LeBrons of the world, but it hasn't worked out that way yet in practice.
Courtney Lee, Celtics
Lee got a full midlevel exception deal for four years, $22 million, and has become an interesting player in league circles because he has fallen out of favor and is trade-eligible Dec. 15. Lee lost his starting gig with lightning speed, posting an anemic 7.45 PER while hardly ever shooting -- he's averaging only 9.5 points per 40 minutes and has made only six 3-pointers, his alleged specialty, the entire season.
Perhaps worse, he hasn't made an impact on games at the defensive end the way Boston hoped. Lee is good on the ball but doesn't like contact at either end and is often waylaid by screens. As a result, he has fallen behind Jason Terry and Leandro Barbosa in Boston's guard hierarchy, and once Avery Bradley returns he may be out of the rotation entirely.
Ty Lawson, Nuggets
Lawson got a four-year, $44 million extension before the season, with the expectation that he'd be the engine of the Nuggets' fast-paced attack. But it appears this engine could use a tune-up. His usage rate is a career high, but he's just not creating the quality of shots that he did a year ago. Lawson's turnover rate is a career high while his TS% is a nasty 45.7.
He's at 28.3 percent on 3s and 40.3% overall, and if you dig deeper you can see his jump shot is the problem. Lawson is actually shooting more often at the basket than a year earlier and converting at nearly the same rate, but from beyond three feet he has been brutal, making only 29.5 percent of his shots outside the charge circle. The result? A 13.20 PER, a Denver offense that has yet to kick into a high gear, and a 9-9 start for a dark horse contender.
Gerald Green, Pacers
Green's three-year, $9 million payday wasn't as big as some of the others on this list, except that $9 million is still a boatload of money to anybody who isn't a professional basketball player, and it dwarfs what he had been making previously as a D-League vagabond.
Green was supposed to be an explosive sixth man for Indiana. Instead his season has been, as one scout put it, a lot of 2-for-7 nights. He's shooting 37 percent for the season with a single-digit PER, with the real shocker being his inability to get easy baskets. Green is a phenomenal leaper who explodes off the floor, but he isn't getting in range nearly enough -- in 17 games he has only 16 shots at the rim. And if you take those shots away, he's a really ordinary player.
Landry Fields, Raptors
Fields signed a three-year, $19 million deal with the Raptors that most considered wildly optimistic at the time. He has exceeded the lowest expectations, playing five games and playing them quite badly (20.8 percent shooting, 1.37 PER) before exiting with an elbow injury. The jury is still out given the small sample size of games, but this was not an encouraging start.
Michael Beasley, Suns
Beasley signed a three-year, $18 million deal with Phoenix and remains a starter despite having the worst PER of any Phoenix rotation player and, by acclamation, the worst defense. It's such a jolt to see P.J. Tucker come in for Beasley and play his rear off for 10 minutes every half, only for Phoenix to return Beasley to the game because they have a financial commitment to him.
Beasley has legitimately improved as a passer, doubling his assist rate from a year ago, but he still uses a ton of possessions on low-percentage shots. He doesn't make many 3s or draw many fouls because he loves to take long pull-up 2s off the dribble; this tendency has earned him a 39 percent shooting mark and a ghastly 45.0 TS% in the early going. And again, he's shooting a lot.
The overall impact couldn't be more seismic. The Suns have been outscored by more than four points per game this season, but are handily beating opponents (+58) in the minutes Beasley doesn't play. Only one other Sun (Marcin Gortat) can make that statement, and they're only +16 without Gortat … a difference that wouldn't exist at all except that so many of his minutes have been tainted by Beasley's presence.
About the only bright spot for the Suns is that their offer sheet for this next guy was matched by the Hornets:
Eric Gordon, Hornets
I mean, at least the guys above have shown up for the games. Gordon got a max deal from the Hornets and has vanished from sight with a nebulous knee injury that may or may not really be a case of advanced Odomitis. Gordon has yet to play a single minute after appearing in only nine games a year ago. He'll be trade eligible Dec. 15, but it's not clear why anyone would trade for him until they've at least see him run around on the court a few times.
Even then, who wants to take a flier on a 6-3 guard who has never been healthy? He was hurt his one season in college, missed 46 games in his first two seasons with the Clippers, and has scarcely been seen since. On a max contract, to boot. While things generally are looking very bright for the Hornets, this one could sting.
― J0rdan S., Tuesday, 4 December 2012 23:20 (thirteen years ago)