back to back hollinger on griz n knicks
Secret to success for Knicks, Griz
New York, Memphis using "Second Draft" approach (PER Diem: Nov. 16, 2012)
Originally Published: November 16, 2012
By John Hollinger | ESPN.com
MEMPHIS, Tenn. -- It's something a few people in the league have come to call "The Second Draft" approach: Finding players still in their early 20s, who had enough talent to be high draft picks but for whatever reason have fallen out of favor with their first teams.
The idea here is that a lot of the players who will produce excess value for a team, whether via free agency or trade, are players who (A) have talent, (B) are young enough to still get better and (C) can be acquired cheaply.
Not rocket science when you put it that way, but it's been an important cog in how a lot of smart teams have built and maintained their rosters in recent seasons.
And, as it turns out, it's a hugely ironic factor in Friday's showdown between the Grizzlies and Knicks. While calling it a Finals preview is perhaps a bit much given that they've played 13 games between them, there is no question that these two teams are playing better than their peers right now.
As for the irony -- I don't know if this is where the term originated, but the first "second draft" reference I heard came from Mark Warkentien, then with the Blazers and now ensconced in the Knicks' front office. The Knicks have had some success in this department, too, and we'll talk more about that below.
But Memphis? The Grizzlies' entire success this season has been based on a particularly bountiful "second draft" that has turned around a weak bench unit.
Memphis' four-man unit of Jerryd Bayless, Wayne Ellington, Quincy Pondexter and Marreese Speights entered the season lightly regarded, and with reason: Each of the four had underwhelmed in previous stops. But underscoring how well they've played, they're a scintillating plus-28 in 63 minutes as a quartet together, according to NBA.com.
The Grizzlies have needed it. In the past, their starting five has been the engine of their success, with the bench asked merely to not blow the game for them. This season the starting five has actually been outscored -- a pretty amazing feat for a team that, overall, has outscored opponents by 64 points in the first seven games.
Conclusion: The bench is carrying them.
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That seemed unlikely entering the season, considering where these players had come from -- especially the two wings. Consider:
• Bayless, 24, was the 11th overall pick by Indiana in 2008 and went to Portland in a draft-day trade. Bouncing to New Orleans and Toronto while on his rookie contract, he became an unrestricted free agent and the Grizzlies looked to him to solve their backup point guard riddle. So far he's done much more than that: he leads the team in PER. With an opt-out clause in his deal for after this season, Bayless is looking at a big payday if he keeps this up.
• Ellington, 24, was the 28th pick by Minnesota in 2009. He played three nondescript seasons in Minnesota without ever achieving a double-digit PER, and seemed headed for the league's reject bin. Memphis needed a backup shooting guard and traded Dante Cunningham to Minnesota for him, and he's been reborn in Memphis -- shooting 51.2 percent, including 45.8 percent on 3s, and averaging nearly a point every two minutes. (Don't weep for Minnesota, though -- Cunningham has been huge for the Wolves. Who knew this trade would actually matter to the Western Conference race?)
• Pondexter, 24, was the 26th pick in 2010. After stumbling through his rookie season in New Orleans, the Grizzlies acquired him a year ago when they needed wing depth. He wasn't particularly good in 2011-12, but has taken another step forward this season by improving his shooting stroke from the corners. Always a solid defender, his added shooting prowess gives him enough of a half-court offensive role that he can have an impact with his defense and energy.
• Speights, 25, was the 16th pick in 2008 and also came to Memphis a year ago via trade before re-signing with the Grizzlies over the summer. He's been the entire frontcourt "depth" in the first seven games while Darrell Arthur recuperates from an injury, and has provided a solid presence at both positions. His shooting has been a bit off in the early going -- 40.4 percent -- which matters because he shoots nearly every time he gets the ball. However, he's been very solid on the glass and has made progress as a back-line defender.
Obviously there are short-term questions about whether this quartet can keep up their hot start, not to mention longer-term ones about whether the Grizzlies could keep this second unit together if they kept it up (all but Pondexter can become free agents, and Memphis is not exactly flush with cap wiggle room at the moment). But if you're looking for a reason for Memphis' impressive start, its "second draft" of those four players has been a huge factor.
As for the Knicks, you might call what they're doing more of a "seventh draft" -- Jason Kidd, Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas and Rasheed Wallace all are half a decade older than anybody on the Grizzlies.
But Warkentien hasn't come up empty on the "second draft" mantra from New York, even if the money was invested in slightly older players. Both J.R. Smith and Raymond Felton fit that mantra, and both have played very well in the early part of the season.
In Smith's case, Warkentien may be the first exec in history to "second draft" the same player twice. He'd also picked up Smith on the cheap in Denver (for Howard Eisley and two second-round picks, which were used on Aaron Gray and the immortal JamesOn Curry), and after Smith left Denver and spent half a year in China, he again landed on Warkentien's doorstep in New York.
Partly, of course, this is because J.R. has done some crazy things that diminish his market value. But the twist on that is that it makes him an inexpensive source of scoring, and given the Knicks' other cap limitations that's important.
He's been a huge part of their unbeaten start. Smith is averaging 34 minutes a game off the bench, which I believe would be a record, and leads the team in PER. Not only has he gone absolutely bananas on 3-pointers (14-of-19 thus far), but unbelievably he has 18 assists against just five turnovers. At age 27, the tantalizing possibility exists that he finally gets it.
As for Felton, 28, his rehabilitation keyed on two factors: 1) that he's in much better shape, and 2) that he played much better in the second half of last season after a miserable start. His play at the point has deflected criticism of the franchise's decision to let Jeremy Lin walk, and his 19.2 points per 40 minutes blows away his previous career high. He's also shooting 40.7 percent on 3s -- not a strength of his, historically -- and has sharply cut down on the turnovers that plagued him in Portland.
Again, we remind everyone that this is a very small sample of games for both teams. Several of the players mentioned above are blowing away their previous career norms, especially in the 3-point shooting category that is the one most prone to short-term flukes. For instance, I can guarantee Smith won't shoot 73.7 percent on 3s all season, nor will Bayless shoot in the 50s or Pondexter and Felton in the 40s. Both New York and Memphis have been flukishly successful on 3s as a team, which is one reason they're a combined 12-1.
Instead, zoom out for the bigger picture. In both New York and Memphis, they used a "second draft" mentality to give themselves a chance at success. New York's guys were 27 and Memphis' were 24, but the idea was the same -- finding inexpensive assets that had a chance, given their age, situations and perceived talent level, to exceed their previous norms. Melo and Z-Bo will get the headlines, but it's those secondary roster moves that have kick-started their franchises thus far.
2nd one not insider http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8641239/memphis-grizzlies-size-too-much-knock-previously-undefeated-new-york-knicks
― lag∞n, Saturday, 17 November 2012 18:09 (thirteen years ago)