The Quest for Tony's Eyebrows: the 2012 NBA Draft

sullenger is gonna be trash in the nba and i predict d-leagueing it most of his rookie year

I think Davis is so versatile that you can even play him some at SF if you want. Just depends on your roster. Since NOH still has Okafor I'd imagine Davis mostly plays PF.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/601162_355283094542125_752696048_n.jpg

^^credit to Turbozone

Since NOH still has Okafor I'd imagine Davis mostly plays PF.

I'd like to see Ayon and Davis play together.

i forgot okafor ended up in noh since he really didn't play this year (btw my fantasy team says fuck u emeka) but i'm not sure that really factors in much once games start happening and okafor inevitably gets injured

ayon-davis is more intriguing to me

on the draft lottery show they put up NOH's roster and left off Okafor

Sullinger's athletic testing positively Sweetney-esque

if the warriors take sullinger, like some mocks have them doing, i may actually die of laughter

I don't know what the fuck Draftexpress is thinking mocking Sullinger to the Warriors. How does that make any sense?

i don't know but i hope it happens

Since yaller talking about my Dubs, do we still owe the Jazz a pick in later years, or is Utah completely out of luck now we're #7?

later years, i think

it's top 6 protected next year.

actually kind of a mixed bag for Utah since this year's draft is mediocre

http://82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

rap game draft rater

It's possible that mere moments after David Stern hands off the Larry O'Brien Trophy to Micky Arison or Clay Bennett that he will be in Newark, N.J., announcing that the New Orleans Hornets are on the clock. The Finals are slated to end June 26 (or really, the morning of June 27 if you factor in the ceremony, the interviews, the analysis and all the responsibilities of the players and the league), and the NBA draft is on June 28.

This is why we need to interrupt this riveting NBA Finals for a moment to talk about a bunch of 19-year-olds who have never played a professional game before.

That's right: It's Draft Rater time. I've developed a tool that analyzes college stats to predict NBA performance and have refined it over the past several years. It's something we can use to help identify draft steals and busts.

To review, last season was a pretty good one for the Rater. The 2011 pick with the top chance of success (Kyrie Irving) won Rookie of the Year, three other players it rated highly (Kawhi Leonard, Jon Leuer and Nikola Vucevic) provided great value for their draft position, and long-time favorite Daniel Green emerged as a starter on the West's best regular-season team.

Meanwhile, the Rater was down on Jan Vesely, Josh Selby and Jimmer Fredette. The biggest whiff was on MarShon Brooks, whom it rated as a late second-rounder but was a solid late first-round pick by the Nets. The others were players nobody else rated highly either; Isaiah Thomas, for instance, was No. 57 on my board. It was probably too optimistic about Tristan Thompson as well; he had the highest raw rating of any player but struggled at times as a rookie.

I made a few minor tweaks compared to a year ago -- most notably, I ditched the "Howland" variable, even though it was statistically significant, because it felt like an "overfit" (fitting the model to past results that may not necessarily be predictive) and I had enough significant variables without it. Otherwise, it's basically same as it ever was -- a giant regression model that gets incrementally smarter as we fill it with more data each year and one that I've segmented by position. It's still less predictive with one-and-done players, whom it sees less of statistically before they turn pro, and it's not perfect -- we're trying to project what 19-year-olds will be like at 25, a profoundly inexact science.

Nonetheless, let's zoom back out to the big picture and go through the results from this year's Draft Rater, because I think you'll see that a few points remain paramount.

1. Anthony Davis is obviously the best player

Good thing we came up with this neat model, because I don't know how we could have discerned this information otherwise. Yes, this is a one-star draft. Davis blew up my Draft Rater, as expected, but just as notable is the huge gap between him and the next place on the list.

Davis rates several points ahead of every other player on the board. In fact, the difference between Davis and the No. 2-rated player, Jared Sullinger, is greater than the gap between Sullinger and No. 16 Bradley Beal. And Sullinger's rating comes with asterisks that don't afflict Davis.

2. Remember, we're projecting PER

This gets extremely important when you look at the next few players that Draft Rater highlights and when you look back at some of the players Draft Rater has fawned over mistakenly in recent seasons. In each, you'll notice a huge propensity toward defensively lacking power forwards -- players like Michael Beasley, Charlie Villanueva and Tyrus Thomas, who had some of the best marks in recent seasons.

That's not a failure of Draft Rater as much as a failure of what I've asked it to do: project NBA PER from college stats. It did that; Beasley, Villanueva and Thomas all have excellent career PER marks. They just aren't very good in spite of those numbers due to their defensive shortcomings and questions about their fit in the team concept.

So let's take a closer look at two relatively short, stocky power forwards who are among the next names on the list: Sullinger and Draymond Green. Will these guys put up numbers? Very likely. Will they be able to guard their position? That is a much more open question and why they won't go as highly as Draft Rater places them. Green, in particular, is a massive defensive question mark.

This applies to a lesser extent to the next several players. Terrence Jones and Royce White, who also has anxiety issues that may affect his draft position, are much more offensive players who are an inch short for the power forward spot, and Furkan Aldemir of Turkey -- who rates as a mid-first-rounder although he probably won't be taken until the middle of the second round -- has defensive shortcomings too.

At least that makes it easy to pick out the second-best big man this year: Thomas Robinson of Kansas, who has no such defensive shortcomings and should be able to score effectively with his athleticism around the rim.

Also warranting looks later in the lottery are two project-level bigs with more upside, especially at the defensive end: Andre Drummond and John Henson. Henson has a slightly higher rating, but as a 7-foot center, Drummond is virtually certain to be the higher pick.

Finally, a sleeper among bigs is Henry Sims of Georgetown. He is not a great athlete and will struggle defensively, but he is a high skill guy who could be a second-round steal.

Bigs: The Best
Name College/Country Rating
Anthony Davis Kentucky 22.23
Jared Sullinger Ohio State 16.86
Thomas Robinson Kansas 15.20
Draymond Green Michigan State 14.84
Terrence Jones Kentucky 14.28
Royce White Iowa State 14.07
Furkan Aldemir Turkey 12.87
John Henson North Carolina 12.11
Andre Drummond Connecticut 12.05
Henry Sims Georgetown 10.38

3. High-rated wings usually deliver

As I noted with Leonard a year ago, wing players -- especially bigger ones -- with strong Draft Rater marks virtually never fail. Of the eight players to rate above 13 in the past decade, the worst among them was Josh Childress. Five of the players have played in an All-Star Game, and Rudy Gay may play in an All-Star Game soon. The seventh player is Leonard.

This year, we have two names to add to that list: Dion Waiters and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Kidd-Gilchrist is probably the safest pick on the board -- a big wing who plays defense, has strong stats and comes with no character questions. From a risk-aversion perspective alone he should be a top-five pick; I have him third on my board after Robinson. (See below for how I would rank the prospects, regardless of their Draft Rater numbers.)

I have Waiters fourth for similar reasons. His size, 6-foot-4, is more of a concern, but whatever team made him a promise did a wise thing. Waiters projects as the best small wing since Dwyane Wade, and he'd be a steal if somebody got him in the Nos. 8-10 range currently being discussed.

The other wing everybody is sleeping on is Quincy Miller of Baylor, who put up a strong mark despite coming off an ACL injury. He has more questions marks because of the knee and his bony build, but he is long and can score. The stories of him slipping have me baffled, because he rates as a top-10 pick.

Two other wings who will be drafted highly don't rate as strongly: Beal and Harrison Barnes. Most players in their range turn out to be solid, but this part of the pool doesn't produce many stars. I'd be more comfortable taking these two in the later part of the lottery.

Doronand Jeremy Lamb added to the perpetual confusion between the two by posting virtually the same rating, although this may be the only one that had Doron rated higher. Jeremy is likely to go 15 picks sooner given his higher ceiling, but Doron could be a great pickup in the late first or early second round as a Courtney Lee clone who hits 3s and defends.

The other wing worth a first-round look is Memphis' Will Barton, whom most have slotted as a second-rounder and who rates as a nice sleeper.

Perimeter Players: The Best
Name College/Country Rating
Dion Waiters Syracuse 14.12
Kendall Marshall North Carolina 13.84
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Kentucky 13.58
Marquis Teague Kentucky 13.18
Quincy Miller Baylor 12.94
Tony Wroten Washington 12.21
Bradley Beal Florida 11.65
Kostas Sloukas Greece 11.51
Harrison Barnes North Carolina 11.11
Will Barton Memphis 10.90
Doron Lamb Kentucky 10.65
Jeremy Lamb Connecticut 10.50

4. The point guard conundrum

Point guard is the hardest position to draft because so much depends on improvement once the player turns pro. Unless it's an overwhelming talent such as Chris Paul or Irving, the smarter play is usually to draft this position late and hope for the best.

This year, several point guards rate as first-round talents, and there is little to separate them. North Carolina's Kendall Marshall is the highest rated of the bunch and the safest pick, but he offers the least upside. Often compared to Mark Jackson because of his size, acumen and lack of athleticism, he is a solid mid-first-round pick. A poor man's version of Marshall might be Kostas Sloukas of Greece, who has solid translated Euroleague stats but will be a late second-rounder if he's drafted at all because of his questionable athleticism.

On the other hand, Marquis Teague of Kentucky and Tony Wroten of Washington have talent to spare and star upside. The question is whether each can harness it. Teague was plagued by turnovers, especially early in the year, but he is an athletic scoring point guard in the mold of his older brother, the Atlanta Hawks' Jeff Teague. Wroten, meanwhile, is enormous for a point guard (6-6) and can really see the floor, but he can't shoot and has lots of character questions.

Among Marshall, Wroten and Teague, it really is dealer's choice as to how much risk you're willing to take on for the reward. By the mid-first round I start liking Wroten's star potential quite a bit, but others may wish to play it more safely.

5. The rest of the bigs

In the tail end of the first round and throughout the second, we're sorting through several big men with fairly weak Draft Rater résumés. The Rater is a particularly harsh judge at the center position, where it frowns on the prospects of four centers with first-round aspirations -- Tyler Zeller, Meyers Leonard, Fab Melo and Festus Ezeli -- and flat-out mocks Miles Plumlee, who is off-the-charts bad with a 2.49 Draft Rater projection.

Plumlee aside, the other four are probably worthy of late first-round picks despite any misgivings, simply because size is such a rare commodity. Even if they can become just decent backup centers, taking them low in the first round makes sense. Two other 7-footers, Garrett Stutz of Wichita State and Robert Sacre of Gonzaga, shape up as solid second-rounders if we apply similar reasoning.

At the power forward spot, Perry Jones III is rated several notches lower than most, while two other likely first-rounders, Andrew Nicholson and Arnett Moultrie, rate as second-round picks. Also of note is Croatian forward Leon Radosevic as a decent second-round value play.

Bigs: The Rest
Name College/Country Rating
Perry Jones III Baylor 8.77
Leon Radosevic Croatia 8.77
JaMychal Green Alabama 8.73
Drew Gordon New Mexico 8.39
Tyler Zeller North Carolina 8.23
Andrew Nicholson St. Bonaventure 8.22
Quincy Acy Baylor 8.16
Fab Melo Syracuse 7.73
Garrett Stutz Wichita State 7.68
Mike Scott Virginia 7.50
Robert Sacre Gonzaga 7.37
Cameron Moore UAB 7.03
Meyers Leonard Illinois 7.02
Mitchell Watt Buffalo 6.77
Festus Ezeli Vanderbilt 6.54
Arnett Moultrie Mississippi State 6.42

6. Potential perimeter busts

One player that Draft Rater isn't crazy about is Damian Lillard of Weber State, who compiled strong numbers but did so against a weak schedule and is much older than most of the prospects at his position. He not only failed to outrank the top point guards above but also rates behind the less-heralded Tyshawn Taylor of Kansas. No. 6 clearly seems a stretch for Lillard, who looks more like a mid-to-late first-rounder in this analysis.

On the wings, a few potential first-rounders also fare poorly. Moe Harkless of St. John's had one of the worst ratings of any first-round prospect. While the error rate on one-and-done players has been higher, the difference between Harkless and the other lottery candidates is well outside the standard error of the Rater.

In addition to Harkless, first-round prospects John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor of Vanderbilt fared poorly. Another first-round prospect from overseas, Evan Fournier of France, didn't play in the Euroleague this year and thus has no projection. Subjectively, I'm not sold on him -- he's basically a slashing scorer who isn't athletic enough to score that way in the NBA -- but he at least has the benefit of being only 19.

One player gathering momentum is Kostas Papanikolaou of Greece, who shapes up as a solid second-round stash pick. Two other wing prospects -- Austin Rivers and Terrence Ross -- shape up about where we'd expect as mid-to-late first rounders, but after those two, the pool thins out quickly.

A final sleeper to watch is Maryland point guard Terrell Stoglin, another guy who would make a great second-rounder.

Perimeter Players: The Rest
Name College/Country Rating
Tyshawn Taylor Kansas 10.19
Austin Rivers Duke 9.85
Terrell Stoglin Maryland 9.82
Damian Lillard Weber State 9.75
Kostas Papanikolaou Greece 9.26
Terrence Ross Washington 9.12
Elias Harris Gonzaga 8.64
William Buford Ohio State 8.58
J'Covan Brown Texas 8.49
Jordan Taylor Wisconsin 8.19
Reggie Hamilton Oakland 8.18
Maalik Wayns Villanova 8.02
Hollis Thompson Georgetown 8.01
Tony Mitchell Alabama 7.91
Jae Crowder Marquette 7.90
Jared Cunningham Oregon State 7.76
John Jenkins Vanderbilt 7.76
Khris Middleton Texas A&M 7.68
Scott Machado Iona 7.57
Tornike Shengelia Republic of Georgia 7.33
Moe Harkless St. John's 7.15
Tu Holloway Xavier 7.14
Orlando Johnson UC Santa Barbara 7.11
Darius Miller Kentucky 6.65
Jeffery Taylor Vanderbilt 6.59

7. Making my board

Knowing everything we know, here is how my board looks heading into draft day. This is taking into account everything from the Draft Rater as well as what we know about the players' red flags, defensive pluses and minuses and one or two subjective calls:

1. Anthony Davis
2. Thomas Robinson
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
4. Dion Waiters
5. Andre Drummond

6. Quincy Miller
7. Jared Sullinger
8. Terrence Jones
9. John Henson
10. Royce White

11. Bradley Beal
12. Harrison Barnes
13. Tony Wroten
14. Kendall Marshall
15. Marquis Teague

16. Draymond Green
17. Jeremy Lamb
18. Damian Lillard
19. Austin Rivers
20. Doron Lamb

21. Furkan Aldemir
22. Will Barton
23. Tyler Zeller
24. Evan Fournier
25. Tyshawn Taylor

26. Meyers Leonard
27. Terrence Ross
28. Perry Jones
29. Festus Ezeli
30. Fab Melo

31. Kostas Sloukas
32. Henry Sims
33. Terrell Stoglin
34. Kostas Papanikolaou
35. Moe Harkless

36. Leon Radosevic
37. JaMychal Green
38. Andrew Nicholson
39. Drew Gordon
40. Garrett Stutz

41. Robert Sacre
42. Arnett Moultrie
43. Elias Harris
44. William Buford
45. Jae Crowder

46. Jared Cunningham
47. Jordan Taylor
48. John Jenkins
49. Orlando Johnson
50. Jeffrey Taylor

51. Quincy Acy
52. Maalik Wayns
53. Tornike Shengelia
54. Scott Machado
55. Mike Scott

56. J'Covan Brown
57. Reggie Hamilton
58. Khris Middleton
59. Tony Mitchell
60. Miles Plumlee

Sullinger apparently has a health red flag concerning his back.

know-it-all jay bilas:

1. Anthony Davis, Kentucky Wildcats
Davis is the best prospect in this draft and a "once in a decade" talent. His length, athleticism and stunning defensive range alone make him the top selection. Add in his tremendous hands, offensive potential and his selfless attitude, and you have a winner.

2. Bradley Beal, Florida Gators
Beal is likened to Ray Allen, even though he shot only 34 percent from 3-point range as a freshman. But Beal shot the ball better in the last half of the season, including better than 43 percent from deep in the last six games. Allen also shot his lowest percentage as a college freshman at UConn. Beal is athletic, efficient and can defend and rebound. He needs work on his handle, but he's a really good prospect.

3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky
The only thing you can complain about with MKG is his shooting mechanics. He doesn't square his body to the target or release it on the way up, and he does not have a natural, repeating stroke with a consistent release point. So what? You are not drafting this guy for offense. He is long, athletic, defensively versatile and absolutely relentless. He can guard anyone and is great in transition and attacking the rim. If his shot improves, great. If not, he is still worthy of this ranking.

4. Thomas Robinson, Kansas Jayhawks
Robinson has started for only one season at Kansas, and his outstanding per-minute averages did not go down a bit when his minutes more than doubled. He is a prototype power forward who can face up, post deep, move his feet on ball-screen action and rebound at a really high rate. His post game is not refined, and he is not a passer, but he is productive and should continue to improve. He may not be a superstar, but he will be a productive workhorse.

5. Harrison Barnes, North Carolina Tar Heels
In high school, I thought Barnes was super athletic and always made the right play. In college, I questioned his athleticism and his basketball IQ. Well, I am doubling down on Barnes because I think he will be a better pro than a college player. He is an outstanding jump shooter, really good at midrange and incredibly athletic with potential at both ends. Barnes is a thinker who is process-oriented, but with more time to work on his game, I like him better as a pro. And he was a heck of a college player, notwithstanding the super high expectations.

6. Andre Drummond, Connecticut Huskies
Size, athleticism, length and impressive "measurables" make Drummond a man of intrigue in this draft. You hear both Dwight Howard and Kwame Brown when his name is mentioned. Drummond's future depends on one thing -- his internal drive. If he works and is passionate about his game and development, he can be really good. If not, he can fail to live up to his potential. He lacks offensive polish and does not make free throws. But he is a freak athlete who can block shots, rebound and finish around the goal. He really moves his feet and can really run. Drummond could make you look really smart or get you canned.

7. Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut
Lamb is a scorer and shooter with really good athleticism and length. He is a good defender and can get his own shot and get it off over size with his long arms and high release. Lamb is not a passer and does not get to the free throw line as much as he should, but he is good in transition and has terrific ability.

8. Damian Lillard, Weber State Wildcats
Lillard has great tools as a scorer, including explosive athleticism and a will to improve. He is a terrific shooter from range, does a great job in transition and can really attack the lane and get to the free throw line. Whether he can be a point guard is the real question. Lillard is not a great passer or decision-maker, and he needs to better see the game, especially off of ball screens. He is, however, the best point guard prospect in this draft.

9. Dion Waiters, Syracuse Orange
Waiters is an attack guard who is terrific in transition, a powerful driver and an aggressive scorer. His body, strength and attack mentality make him a weapon, especially on the offensive end. Even though Waiters played mostly in Jim Boeheim's zone, I believe he will be a good defender in the NBA.

10. Perry Jones III, Baylor Bears
If you are old enough or watched Nickelodeon as a kid, you will recall Greg Brady's foray into music when he was selected to be the next Johnny Bravo because he "fit the suit." Jones is Johnny Bravo. He has the size, athleticism, tools, skills and look that makes him fit the NBA suit. There is only one question about Jones: Is he tough enough and does he have the inner drive to do it under the brightest lights? He is still really young in the game and is worth the risk. He has upside and is a terrific kid.

11. Austin Rivers, Duke Blue Devils
Rivers is really good with the ball, breaks down defenders without the need for a ball screen and can get by most anyone. With tremendous quickness, especially when the ball is in his hands, Rivers can get the ball to the rim in a hurry, and he has great instincts to score. He is 6-foot-5 and has a terrific competitive spirit. He gets some heat for being cocky, but what really good player is not confident to the point of cockiness? He is good defensively and accepts challenges of guarding the best perimeter players, and he gets to the free throw line at a high rate. Can Rivers play point in the NBA? I think he can, but he needs to learn to play without the ball.

12. Tyler Zeller, North Carolina
Zeller has a skill that sets him apart from any big man in this draft, and the vast majority of big men in the NBA: He can really run the floor. Zeller's ability to change ends puts tremendous pressure on opposing big men. Zeller is a good post defender who breaks contact to get deflections and rebounds at a really high rate. He needs to better hold position down low, but he is strong and has a good frame. He has a nice touch, hits a trail jumper and knocks down his free throws.

13. Jared Sullinger, Ohio State Buckeyes
Sullinger is not tall, but he is really long and uses his big body well around the paint. He rebounds very well but is not a shot-blocker or shot-changer. Sullinger is not a great athlete and, in fact, tested at the bottom among prospects at the NBA draft combine, which was not a surprise. His level of success in the NBA will depend upon his ability to hit a face-up jumper to 20 feet, which he improved upon last season.

14. John Henson, North Carolina
Henson was projected as a small forward coming out of high school, but it seems that power forward is his best spot. He has freaky length and can block shots and rebound, and his offensive game has improved to the point of being able to hit a face-up shot to 17 feet or so. He is unorthodox and does not carry a lot of bulk, but his length, shot-blocking ability and rebounding make him a very good prospect.

15. Meyers Leonard, Illinois Fighting Illini
Leonard is a true 7-footer who is very athletic, blocks shots, can step out and shoot or drive and has a really nice offensive skill set. Leonard is still very young in the game and improved greatly last season. The only question about Leonard is his toughness. There are times he settles and doesn't go into contact and use his size and strength. He does not rebound at a high rate, and he needs to fight harder for post position on both ends of the floor. That said, Leonard is a fine prospect who has terrific potential as an NBA center.

16. Terrence Jones, Kentucky
Jones is a lefty who is athletic, very strong and has improved his rebounding and toughness during the past year. He has a really good frame, can drive it past an opposing big and can step away and knock down a perimeter jumper. Like most players with size and skills, the only question marks have to do with consistency.

17. Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi State Bulldogs
Moultrie is a really good rebounder with length and size who has improved every year. He has a nice touch and improved his free throw shooting, which speaks very well of him and is an indicator he will continue to work on his weaknesses. Moultrie has athleticism and mobility, and most impressive is his willingness to move without the ball and willingness to do the dirty work. He played on a dysfunctional team and didn't always have the best body language, but he has ability.

18. Kendall Marshall, North Carolina
Marshall is a left-hander with extraordinary vision, passing ability and leadership. He has good size but lacks foot speed and the ability to get by people off the dribble. Marshall is not a great shooter or scorer but is excellent in transition, and his teammates run because he will find them. He averaged almost 10 assists per game but did not score efficiently. He can hit a wide-open standstill jumper but is not a driver or penetrator. His defense is lacking, but he is able to use his size and is smart about playing off of quicker guards and using angles to cover up speed and quickness disadvantages. Marshall has decent straight-line speed but not quickness.

19. Moe Harkless, St. John's Red Storm
Harkless is really talented and athletic. He has good rise and the ability to get to the rim going right, and he can rebound at a high rate. He was guarded mostly by interior players, which gave him a driving advantage, but he is good in transition and has the ability to be a really good and versatile defender. Harkless lacks physical strength and is not a shooter or handler, and he needs to be able to drive it to his left and finish, but he has a willingness to work and can improve those areas.

20. Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure Bonnies
Nicholson has an NBA frame with length and strength, and he can rebound and score at a high rate. He is a very good offensive rebounder, can step away and hit a face-up jumper, and he blocks shots and can guard in the post. Nicholson also does a nice job on the block offensively and has really good feet and post moves. The masses may not know him, but Nicholson will be a very good NBA player.

21. Tony Wroten Jr., Washington Huskies
Wroten was the best passer coming out of high school last year and is a lefty with size and athleticism. He can get by people and bully his way into the lane, and he gets fouled at a very high rate and shoots a ton of free throws. Wroten can be a very good defender but is not one yet. He turns the ball over at a high rate because of questionable decisions, and he is a non-shooter, neither from deep nor from the free throw line. He can be a point with size, and he has great tools. I liken him to a bigger but very raw Rajon Rondo.

22. Marquis Teague, Kentucky
Teague was overshadowed by the super talent on his title team, but he is a very good point guard prospect. He has good size, length and athleticism for a point guard, and he has very good speed with the ball. Teague is not a shooter and has had some trouble with turnovers and adjusting to running a team. He can drive it and is very good in the open floor, and he is good off of ball screens and finishing at the goal. His challenge is to improve his decision-making in the half court.

23. Terrence Ross, Washington
Ross is an excellent shooter and athlete who is very good in catch-and-shoot situations and coming off of screens. He runs hard in transition, and Washington looked to him for shots and lobs after timeouts. He is a good defender on the ball but needs to improve off the ball. Ross is not a great handler and drives right to get to the rim and left to pull up.

24. Jeff Taylor, Vanderbilt Commodores
Taylor is an outstanding athlete who is a very versatile defender and has the ability to play in the open floor and get to the rim and finish. He is a vastly improved shooter and has become far more consistent. He still needs to improve his free throw shooting, but he has become a tougher player on both ends.

25. Fab Melo, Syracuse
Melo improved his mobility, his conditioning and his strength last season, and he was a reliable player who could change ends, challenge shots and has the ability to rebound (although he does not rebound at a high enough rate on the defensive end). Melo improved his free throw shooting and finishes around the rim, but he is not a naturally gifted offensive talent. He is raw and needs work, but he has good hands and has made some limited strides.

26. Royce White, Iowa State Cyclones
White has the tools to be outstanding at the pro level. He is versatile, big and really strong, and he has an uncanny knack for passing after getting by a defender and making a play off the bounce. With a 7-foot wingspan, he can rebound and has really good body balance to take contact and finish. White is not a shooter or (despite his steals) a consistent or willing defender, but he led Iowa State in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals. He has some questions regarding his anxiety disorder and some off-court issues, and all are legitimate questions. If, however, a team is satisfied those questions are answered, he could be a real theft late in the first round.

27. John Jenkins, Vanderbilt
Jenkins is the best shooter in this draft and gets his shots off of screens and relocations. He does not get his own shot and is neither a great handler nor defender. Jenkins has a specialized skill, and that is of a shooter. With a penetrating point and an interior threat, Jenkins can help spread the floor and knock down perimeter shots with consistency.

28. Quincy Miller, Baylor
At 6-10 with skills and talent, Miller has a lot of tools. He came off of a knee injury last season but showed his scoring instincts and midrange and face-up skills in having some extraordinary performances for a first-year player. Miller was not consistent, however, and did not always play with fire. He is versatile and lengthy with very good ball skills, midrange shooting and the length to be a decent defender. He is not a great athlete, needs to get much stronger and tougher and must improve his shooting range, but Miller has some ability and skills.

29. Draymond Green, Michigan State Spartans
Green is a classic "tweener," who has really long arms and tremendous heart and will. He can rebound, pass, face up and step away, and he can hit the college 3-point shot. Green is very good in the post and does the little things a team needs to win. He is not, however, an NBA athlete. I still believe he can play at the next level because of his ability to rebound, but guarding more athletic small forwards or bigger power forwards will be a challenge.

30. Evan Fournier, France
I have not seen Fournier in person, but he has physical tools, finishing ability, good feet and a very good skill level. Fran Fraschilla noted that Fournier is the best foreign prospect in this draft and was the best prospect at this year's Eurocamp. Fournier is very young and lacks strength, but he can help a team, if given the necessary time to develop.

Bilas uses the word "really" 24 times in that Mock.

Ohio State Buckeyes big man Jared Sullinger has been medically red flagged by NBA doctors, multiple league sources told ESPN.com on Monday.

Alas! I would that they had flagged Mr. Oden, late of Ohio State, as promptly. Alack-a-day!

_Ohio State Buckeyes big man Jared Sullinger has been medically red flagged by NBA doctors, multiple league sources told ESPN.com on Monday._

Ford has him sliding to 20 in his latest mock. He dropped perry jones out of the lottery too (19).

Picks 2 through 5 look like a toss up right now.

Idly wondering. Has any SG, PG or SF lottery pick (or even later) come into the league being touted as mainly a lockdown defensive specialist right from the start? Seems like smaller players are sorted into this bin only after they arrive, not before.

avery bradley def was

also iman shumpert

ford's mock has the kings picking barnes at no. 5, which would be awesome cuz they def need another offensive minded wing player

Idly wondering. Has any SG, PG or SF lottery pick (or even later) come into the league being touted as mainly a lockdown defensive specialist right from the start? Seems like smaller players are sorted into this bin only after they arrive, not before.

― Aimless, Tuesday, 19 June 2012 17:33 (4 hours ago) Permalink

Nah it happens plenty of times.

ford's mock has the kings picking barnes at no. 5, which would be awesome cuz they def need another offensive minded wing player

― J0rdan S., Tuesday, June 19, 2012 5:35 PM (4 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the only thing they need is to trade Evans.

chadfordinsider Chad Ford
Hearing similar RT @JohnCanzanoBFT: NBA GM tells me he thinks Blazers take Lillard at No. 6, & wouldn't chance trying to get him at No. 11

Looks like drummond might slip to warriors.

that would be quite the coupe for them

Chad Ford's tier system article below. Also, rumors that the Cs made a promise to Royce White.

Tier 1

Anthony Davis

Note: This category is usually reserved for guys who are sure-fire All-Stars/franchise players. Last year, we didn't have anyone here. In 2010, John Wall was the only guy in this tier. In 2009, Blake Griffin was the only one. This year Davis is the only player in the draft to get the nod.

Tier 2

Harrison Barnes
Bradley Beal
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Thomas Robinson

Note: Tier 2 is reserved for players who are likely locks for the top half of the lottery and are projected as either very good starters or potential All-Stars by scouts. Robinson, Beal and Kidd-Gilchrist got the nod for Tier 2 from every GM I spoke with. Barnes, who has been rising on draft boards the past few weeks after some stellar athletic testing numbers at the NBA combine, was on 75 percent of the lists.

Tier 3

Andre Drummond
Damian Lillard
Dion Waiters

Note: This is a smaller than usual Tier 3. These are the only three players (outside of the five mentioned already) that were consensus top-10 picks among the GMs I spoke with. Of the group, Drummond and Lillard had every vote. Waiters was on most of the ballots. Drummond is the toughest guy to peg. One team has him No. 2 on their draft board. Others are much more nervous about him and see a high bust potential. He barely missed the Tier 2 cut. Interestingly, a few teams had Waiters in Tier 2, while a few teams had him in Tier 4. That's a pretty big spread.

Tier 4

John Henson
Perry Jones III
Terrence Jones
Jeremy Lamb
Meyers Leonard
Kendall Marshall
Austin Rivers
Terrence Ross
Jared Sullinger
Tyler Zeller

Note: After Tier 3, it's very difficult to find a real consensus here. There are 10 players here for a total of five spots left in the lottery. A few players, like Jeremy Lamb and Austin Rivers, got a few votes in Tier 3. A few others, like Kendall Marshall, got some Tier 5 votes. But in general, this group makes up the 10-20 range of the draft. (We should note that I received some of these responses before GMs had a chance to review Sullinger's physical. He is in Tier 5 on some teams' boards now.)

Tier 5

Moe Harkless
Fab Melo
Quincy Miller
Arnett Moultrie
Andrew Nicholson
Marquis Teague
Royce White
Tony Wroten Jr.

Note: This next group looks like locks for the first round, but most likely won't make the lottery. A few teams had Harkless, Melo and Moultrie in Tier 4, but not quite enough for them to make the cut. Wroten and Miller were borderline picks here. Both players dropped out of the top 30 on at least one NBA team's draft board.

Tier 6

Furkan Aldemir
Will Barton
Jared Cunningham
Festus Ezeli
Evan Fournier
Draymond Green
John Jenkins
Orlando Johnson
Doron Lamb
Kyle O'Quinn
Kostas Papanikolaou
Miles Plumlee
Jeff Taylor
Tyshawn Taylor

Note: This is what I would call the first-round bubble group and where the consensus really started to break down. A few teams had Fournier, Green, Jeff Taylor and Barton in Tier 5, but many did not. Overall there are just four spaces left in the first round ... so most of the players on this list are falling to the second round.

I pay fuck-all attention to NCAA hoops but, reading up on draft previews / etc., I'm actually excited about Pacers' #26 pick, where I'd be pumped for Draymond Green (shorter, tubbier version of Hansbrough), Fab Melo (name), or Royce White (fun OCD stories and +++upside+++).

Looks similar, though not quite as deep, to the 2009 draft where there's lots of good value in the late teens to mid-twenties.

yeah I agree, I hate this draft from 2-10 but like it a lot from 12 to 25

hey quick q, is the reasons why gm's pick shitty dudes early in the first round bc they hope they get lucky on a poss allstar instead of picking a probable role player that ends up getting picked later?

The problem with picking a probable role player is that you'll be picking a rookie who needs to be paid, trained, and takes up space on the bench - and rookies rarely contribute as role players - that usually comes years later. So, you pick a possible all-star any time you can, and maybe what you get is an eventual role player, but at least you gave it a shot.

Despite having the fifth pick, it appears the Kings will not work out the player that they may very well wind up taking. Someone is bound to slide from the top-tier group that includes Beal, Barnes, Kidd-Gilchrist and Robinson, but they have all decided against working out in Sacramento and -- unless something changes -- don't appear to be scheduling anything in the eleventh hour here, either.

hey quick q, is the reasons why gm's pick shitty dudes early in the first round bc they hope they get lucky on a poss allstar instead of picking a probable role player that ends up getting picked later?

― he bit me (it felt like a diss) (m bison), Saturday, June 23, 2012 12:07 AM (55 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

The problem with picking a probable role player is that you'll be picking a rookie who needs to be paid, trained, and takes up space on the bench - and rookies rarely contribute as role players - that usually comes years later. So, you pick a possible all-star any time you can, and maybe what you get is an eventual role player, but at least you gave it a shot.

― Aimless, Saturday, June 23, 2012 12:12 AM (51 minutes ago) Bookmark

nah it's cuz the nba above all is a superstar league, and sometimes you just gotta risk it on potential. sometimes you end up jan vessley, but sometimes you end up with paul george.

that said, the middle of the first rounds of the last few drafts have been really strong.

& "safe" players also end up as busts. it's really such an imperfect science.

actually Vesely's most common projection was as a role player.

hey quick q, is the reasons why gm's pick shitty dudes early in the first round bc they hope they get lucky on a poss allstar instead of picking a probable role player that ends up getting picked later?

― he bit me (it felt like a diss) (m bison), Saturday, June 23, 2012 4:07 AM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Yeah pretty much. All those shitty dudes have big talent. Of course inexplicable things like Jason Collier and Shelden Williams still happen anyway.

Shelden Williams was only inexplicable to Billy Knight.

Melo is a true character

The 7-foot, 255-pound center is the biggest teddy bear since Glen "Big Baby" Davis. Think about this: Syracuse had two Melos, but only one Fab. Fabricio de Melo is one of a kind. He's the guy who shows up to camp with cuts on his face, and you find out that he dove into the shallow end of a pool. He's the kid who checks in at a camp, gets handed his jersey, goes to the trainer to receive treatment (he hasn't even played yet) and somehow loses his jersey within the first 30 minutes of receiving his gear. That is Fab Melo, and he's one of a kind.

sounds like a keeper

Think about this: Syracuse had two Melos, but only one Fab. - okay ive been thinking abt this, and still nothing

UConn G Jeremy Lamb on UConn C Andre Drummond's NBA potential: "It depends on if he wants to work."

:/

playermetrics on nba.com looks ace!!!

http://www.nba.com/draft/2012/prospects/anthony-davis/
http://www.nba.com/draft/2012/prospects/harrison-barnes/
http://www.nba.com/draft/2012/prospects/bradley-beal/
http://www.nba.com/draft/2012/prospects/jeremy-lamb/
http://www.nba.com/draft/2012/prospects/michael-kidd-gilchrist/

I don't really get how Royce White fits in Boston. Seems too much like a low post version of Rondo. Not a great shot, needs the ball in his hand, great vision/passing. Maybe they're just looking for a playmaker for when Rondo sits? Seems like they'd be more interested in replacing Ray.

Probably shouldn't question Ainge's drafting or Doc's ability to utilize him..... Mostly just wish he'd slide a little further so my team could grab him. Great value in the 20s.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/46544/does-motor-matter

I was reading today about Drummond as a prospect for the Blazers. He is so young and callow that he doesn't have a clue how clueless he is. Doesn't bode well for any team that stuffs him full of money and expects him to act like a man.