The Quest for Tony's Eyebrows: the 2012 NBA Draft

PJ3 has no excuses for how he played at Baylor. He showed zero desire or intensity and that's on him.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2003736036_draft06.html

Durant, who will likely be chosen No. 2 in the June 28 draft by the Sonics, was the only player who could not bench press 185 pounds at least once. His overall performance ranked 78th out of 80 prospects, and his lackluster workout appears to have widened the gap between him and Ohio State center Greg Oden, who had an impressive combine.

ha iirc durant said re his bench press 'a basketball doesnt weigh that much'

any insider wanna put up the chad ford mock draft? I and ILH would be very grateful

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

New Orleans

Anthony Davis

Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-11
Weight: 222 pounds
Age: 19
School: Kentucky
Analysis: How hot of a commodity is Davis? As I wrote on Monday, sources said the Cavs offered the Hornets picks 4, 24, 32 and 33 for the No. 1 pick -- a deal the Hornets quickly and firmly declined. Davis is the one player in this draft that a team can immediately build around, so you can expect the Hornets to continue to receive and decline great offers.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Charlotte

Thomas Robinson

Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-9
Weight: 244 pounds
Age: 21
School: Kansas
Analysis: The Bobcats are actively talking to teams about trading the No. 2 pick. Why? Not only is there no franchise player at No. 2, but I'm told there's a bit of a split right now in Charlotte between taking Robinson or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Sources say Michael Jordan isn't sold on building around the limited offensive arsenal of Kidd-Gilchrist, but the team also has questions about how high Robinson's ceiling is.

I think MKG is the second best prospect in the class, but it's very close between him, Robinson and Bradley Beal. If the Bobcats keep the pick and take Robinson, they'd be getting a super-athletic, physical 4 who should be an instant upgrade over Tyrus Thomas and D.J. White.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Washington

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Position: SF
Height: 6-foot-8
Weight: 233 pounds
Age: 18
School: Kentucky
Analysis: The Wizards are happy at the No. 3 spot and I continue to hear it will come down to Kidd-Gilchrist or Beal. In this mock, both players are still on the board, so the choice is difficult.

Kidd-Gilchrist would give the Wizards some much-needed toughness and defense at the 3, albeit with a less advanced offensive game. Meanwhile, Beal would give them a dominant 2-guard, who can shoot the basketball, to pair with John Wall. I'm still not sure which way they'll go, but either player would be a very good addition to their roster.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Cleveland

Bradley Beal

Position: SG
Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 202 pounds
Age: 18
School: Florida
Analysis: The Cavs need a wing and like MKG, Beal and Harrison Barnes. Andre Drummond is also in the mix, but the Cavs don't yet have a comfort level with him. If this comes down to Beal or Barnes, I think Beal will have the slight edge here. But it's not a given. The Cavs have been interested in Barnes for the past year and could decide that his size is what they need.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Sacramento

Andre Drummond

Position: C
Height: 7-foot-0
Weight: 279 pounds
Age: 18
School: UConn
Analysis: Drummond measured out very close to DeMarcus Cousins last weekend at the draft combine. If the Kings draft him, they would suddenly have a massive front line, adding Drummond's athleticism, rebounding and shot-blocking to Cousins' polished offensive game.

The Kings have not shied away in recent years from prioritizing talent over players with question marks; Drummond, who has a questionable motor, has such a high upside, I'm not sure they pass here, either. If they do, however, it's because they fell in love with UNC's John Henson and feel he's more mature and willing to blend.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Portland (via Nets)

Damian Lillard

Position: PG
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 189 pounds
Age: 21
School: Weber State
Analysis: If Drummond falls here, I think they take him. But if he doesn't, I'm hearing Lillard could be the man. He wowed at the draft combine and measured very similar in size and athletic ability to Derrick Rose. While Lillard isn't nearly the same prospect as Rose, the Blazers need a point guard and Lillard has the potential to be very, very good. Taking him at No. 6 is no longer a reach. Harrison Barnes and Jeremy Lamb would also be in the mix here.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Golden State

Harrison Barnes

Position: SF
Height: 6-foot-8
Weight: 228 pounds
Age: 20
School: North Carolina
Analysis: I think both the Warriors and Barnes' camp, who want Barnes to go to a big market and an up-and-coming team, would do backflips if he slides this far. The team desperately wants to get a great small forward out of this draft and there's a pretty big drop-off after Barnes.

The Warriors worked out both Terrence Jones and Perry Jones on Monday, but weren't blown away with either player. Both are really 4s trying to pass themselves off as 3s. Jared Sullinger is also in the mix here and I'm hearing Moe Harkless is a potential dark horse for this spot, as well.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Toronto

Dion Waiters

Position: SG
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 221 pounds
Age: 20
School: Syracuse
Analysis: The Raptors adamantly denied they were the team that persuaded Waiters to drop out of the combine with a promise to draft him in the lottery. Given the team's attempts to trade the pick, I sort of believe them. But that won't stop them from drafting Waiters if they keep the pick and he's still on the board.

The Raptors have a roster full of soft jump-shooters. What they really need is a tough player who can get to the basket and get his own shot at the end of games. Someone like Waiters. Damian Lillard and Jeremy Lamb are also possibilities at No. 8.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Detroit

John Henson

Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-10
Weight: 216 pounds
Age: 21
School: North Carolina
Analysis: Greg Monroe has been a revelation in the middle for the Pistons, but they really need to pair him alongside an athletic shot-blocker. Although Henson is painfully thin, he rebounds, blocks shots and defends multiple positions.

It wouldn't be a perfect solution in Detroit, but the Pistons don't have a lot of other options here unless they want to reach a bit for Meyers Leonard who, after his stellar showing at the draft combine, might be worth it.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

New Orleans
(via Wolves)

Jared Sullinger

Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-9
Weight: 268 pounds
Age: 20
School: Ohio State
Analysis: We've been assuming the Hornets would try to fill their hole at point guard here with a player like Damian Lillard or Kendall Marshall. They may. But the buzz has been around Jared Sullinger's name here. I could see why the Hornets would think that Davis and Sullinger would be an ideal pairing together. They complete each other.

I do, however, wonder whether Sullinger's weak results in the athletic testing portion of the draft combine might change their mind. Sully may be the worst athlete in the draft.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Portland

Jeremy Lamb

Position: SG
Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 179 pounds
Age: 20
School: UConn
Analysis: If the Blazers get Lillard at No. 6, they'll be tempted to reach for a big like Leonard. However, this might also be a great opportunity to fill out their backcourt with another guard.

Lamb has great length for his position, is a smooth athlete and, combined with Lillard, would give the Blazers a powerful scoring punch. Don't count out Austin Rivers and Dion Waiters here, either; I hear Portland's new GM, Neil Olshey, is a fan of both.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Milwaukee

Meyers Leonard

Position: C
Height: 7-foot-1
Weight: 250 pounds
Age: 20
School: Illinois
Analysis: The Bucks gambled a few years ago on Brandon Jennings and it paid off big time. At this point in the draft, Leonard is risky but could have huge upside. The Bucks really need a center after trading Andrew Bogut to the Warriors at the trade deadline. Leonard is a work in progress, but has the size and athletic ability to be a dominant big man down the road.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Phoenix

Austin Rivers

Position: SG
Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 203 pounds
Age: 19
School: Duke
Analysis: The rumor du jour in Chicago was that the Suns had promised to select Dion Waiters at No. 13. However, if it's true, a promise doesn't guarantee that he'll be there when they're drafting. If he's already off the board, it could come down to Austin Rivers or Terrence Ross.

Rivers didn't play a minute at the combine, but I was told by multiple NBA GMs that he really was impressive in interviews and lessened fears that he could be uncoachable. Ross played and played well, but doesn't have quite the star power that Rivers brings to the table. It could be a tough call, but I hear Phoenix is leaning Rivers' way.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Houston

Tyler Zeller

Position: C
Height: 7-foot
Weight: 247 pounds
Age: 22
School: North Carolina
Analysis: The Rockets' biggest need is in the middle and Zeller should be a solid option. Scouts don't think Zeller is going to be an All-Star someday, but he's big, he runs the floor very well and he has a great touch around the basket. Meyers Leonard has now passed him on our Big Board, but Zeller should ultimately land somewhere between Picks 8 and 14.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Philadelphia

Terrence Jones

Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-8
Weight: 252 pounds
Age: 20
School: Kentucky
Analysis: The Sixers might have a tough choice here between Jones, Terrence Ross and Arnett Moultrie. They need size, but also shooting. Jones may be the compromise. He measured out very well for a power forward at the combine, has an NBA body and proved to be a solid rebounder and shot-blocker in college. He has tremendous upside if he puts his heart into it.

Ross, meanwhile, would give the Sixers the starting-caliber sniper that they've long lacked, while Moultrie is a long, bouncy, athletic big man who could stretch the floor for them.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Houston (via Knicks)

Moe Harkless

Position: SF
Height: 6-foot-9
Weight: 207 pounds
Age: 19
School: St. John's
Analysis: We have the Rockets going safe at No. 14, so I think they can afford to gamble a little at No. 16. Harkless was another high riser at the draft combine. He is a great athlete, has toughness and has tremendous upside.

The Rockets have generally played it safe in the draft the past few years. The upside is that they've gotten solid players. The downside is that they haven't necessarily gotten any elite talent. Harkless could be that guy. Moultrie is another real option for them here.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Dallas

Kendall Marshall

Position: PG
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 198 pounds
Age: 20
School: North Carolina
Analysis: With Jason Kidd 39 and a free agent and Rodrigue Beaubois more of a combo guard, Marshall would bring much of what Kidd brings to the table -- incredible court vision and size -- right away. He's not a great athlete or a great shooter, but he could keep Dirk & Co. happy.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Wolves (via Jazz)

Terrence Ross

Position: SG
Height: 6-foot-7
Weight: 197 pounds
Age: 21
School: Washington
Analysis: The Timberwolves' biggest need is to put a shooter in the backcourt with Ricky Rubio. Ross is not only a sharpshooter from 3-point land, but he is also a great athlete and has great size for his position. He's a steal at 18.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Orlando

Perry Jones III

Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-11
Weight: 234 pounds
Age: 20
School: Baylor
Analysis: This is a long way for Jones to slip in the draft. Many believe he's a top-five talent, but no one knows what position he'll play in the pros. His situation reminds me a lot of the one Josh Smith was in a few years ago. Jones may find a home in the lottery, but if he doesn't he could slide this far. Given Jones' raw talent, he's definitely worth the risk at this point.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Denver

Arnett Moultrie

Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-11
Weight: 223 pounds
Age: 21
School: Mississippi State
Analysis: Moultrie made the head-scratching decision to sit out the draft combine drills. He would've looked great in that setting, but instead saw several players leapfrog him on the draft board. I doubt he slips much past the Nuggets or Celtics, though.

His length, athletic ability and shooting touch should all come in handy in Denver. Kentucky point guard Marquis Teague is also an option here.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Boston

Andrew Nicholson

Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-10
Weight: 234 pounds
Age: 22
School: St. Bonaventure
Analysis: Nicholson is another draft sleeper who may really rise with workouts. He's a big stretch 4 who has drawn some comparisons to David West. He would be another welcome addition to the Celtics' summer makeover.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Boston (via Clippers)

Royce White

Position: SF
Height: 6-foot-8
Weight: 261 pounds
Age: 21
School: Iowa State
Analysis: White may have helped himself as much as anyone in the draft last week. His play on the court was solid, but his interviews were stellar. Most of the NBA executives I spoke with felt that they would be comfortable drafting White somewhere outside the lottery. If the C's can add Nicholson and White -- two value picks this late in the draft -- the rebuild will be well on its way.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Atlanta

Tony Wroten Jr.

Position: PG
Height: 6-foot-6
Weight: 203 pounds
Age: 18
School: Washington
Analysis: The Hawks have been cursed at the point guard position ever since they decided to pass on Chris Paul to draft Marvin Williams. Wroten is no Paul, but he may have the most raw talent of any point guard in the draft. He's big, he's athletic and he can get to the basket. If his shot wasn't broken, and if he had a better rep as a teammate, he'd be a top-10 pick.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Cavs (via Lakers)

Fab Melo

Position: C
Height: 7-foot
Weight: 255 pounds
Age: 22
School: Syracuse
Analysis: The Cavs could really use more help at the 5. Anderson Varejao is around for a few more years but after that the cupboard is bare. Melo might need a few years anyway before he's ready to be a serious contributor at the next level.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Memphis

Evan Fournier

Position: SG
Height: 6-foot-7
Weight: 206 pounds
Age: 19
School: France
Analysis: I'm hearing the Grizzlies are looking to stash a player over in Europe this year. Fournier, a scoring wing from France, is the best European prospect on the board.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Indiana

Marquis Teague

Position: PG
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 180 pounds
Age: 19
School: Kentucky
Analysis: Teague would've been a top-10 pick had he decided to stay in school. Instead he followed the rest of Kentucky's stars into the draft. He could go as high as the mid-first round but I doubt he slips past the Pacers here. Adding Teague would allow them to use Darren Collison as trade bait this summer.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Miami

Draymond Green

Position: SF
Height: 6-foot-8
Weight: 236 pounds
Age: 22
School: Michigan State
Analysis: The Heat need players with experience who excel in bringing out the best in their teammates. Green can be a point-forward type who does a little of everything. Think of him as a better-passing Udonis Haslem.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Oklahoma City

Jeff Taylor

Position: SF
Height: 6-foot-7
Weight: 212 pounds
Age: 23
School: Vanderbilt
Analysis: An elite athlete, Taylor can be a lockdown defender and has range on his jumper. He's probably undervalued at this point, but that happens to seniors. The Thunder will capitalize.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Chicago

John Jenkins

Position: SG
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 212 pounds
Age: 21
School: Vanderbilt
Analysis: The Bulls need a shooter and Jenkins has one of the best strokes in the draft. His super-quick release and ability to finish at the basket make him an interesting prospect here.

PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS

Golden State
(via Spurs)

Festus Ezeli

Position: C
Height: 7-foot-0
Weight: 264 pounds
Age: 22
School: Vanderbilt
Analysis: If the Warriors can nail down the small forward spot earlier in the draft, don't be surprised if they go big with their second pick. Ezeli has the size and experience to come in and be a solid backup. I'm told Norfolk State's Kyle O'Quinn is also an option here.

Can anyone who watched Syracuse this year tell me anything about fab melo? Can't tell if he's a Dan Gadzuric type of guy or what

If that mock draft plays out as ford foresees I will be both shocked and extremely impressed. After Davis at #1, the picture gets very muddy very quickly. But it is a fun exercise all the same and just as much a requirement for a hoops columnist as the end of the year top ten list for a movie critic, so I can hardly blame him for trying.

royce is amazing and i hope he's matured but he was a colossal fuckup in minnesota. lots of questions marks.

garnett, bass/nicholson, pierce/white, bradley/allen & rondo: that's the plan?

hahahaha reading this mock i realized knicks doesnt have a pick at all

fab melo is a def-minded C who doesn't do well at school

hes like.... stiemsma! (?)

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2012/

Another mock draft...

ha http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8K-EKA_vwOU

can he do that in a game tho ?

nice unguarded jumper awesome

dude looks awful handling the ball. he'd turn it over 50,000 times in the nba.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/y-sports-draftexpress-2012-nba-mock-draft-no-235200883--nba.html;_ylt=Av3BqzBFh0N3HREV6xyW.zu8vLYF

Givony writes at a 9th grade level.

"7-footer Meyers Leonard has a terrific combination of size and athleticism, and huge upside to continue to develop. Him and Tyler Zeller are the early favorites here."

oh dear

i find it kind of baffling that sullinger is gonna be picked in the top 10.

ohio state has quite the streak of overdrafted busts going

sullinger is so awful

Withey's total demolition of Sullinger is hard to forget

you really can't be that unathletic & successful in the nba

he's just not great enough at anything to overcome his physical limitations imo. Kevin Love is athletically limited but he's a rebounding genius. Also I feel like he scores too much by bullying people which won't work in the NBA.

also he's a star in college & gets ton of calls. that's not gonna happen in college.

uh, the nba*

guys I like: White, Harkless, Zller

is davis going to play center in the league? seems like he's big enough now that there are exactly two (2) centers of actual size to worry about between bynum and howard

thanks for the display name chad ford

sullenger is gonna be trash in the nba and i predict d-leagueing it most of his rookie year

I think Davis is so versatile that you can even play him some at SF if you want. Just depends on your roster. Since NOH still has Okafor I'd imagine Davis mostly plays PF.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/601162_355283094542125_752696048_n.jpg

^^credit to Turbozone

Since NOH still has Okafor I'd imagine Davis mostly plays PF.

I'd like to see Ayon and Davis play together.

i forgot okafor ended up in noh since he really didn't play this year (btw my fantasy team says fuck u emeka) but i'm not sure that really factors in much once games start happening and okafor inevitably gets injured

ayon-davis is more intriguing to me

on the draft lottery show they put up NOH's roster and left off Okafor

Sullinger's athletic testing positively Sweetney-esque

if the warriors take sullinger, like some mocks have them doing, i may actually die of laughter

I don't know what the fuck Draftexpress is thinking mocking Sullinger to the Warriors. How does that make any sense?

i don't know but i hope it happens

Since yaller talking about my Dubs, do we still owe the Jazz a pick in later years, or is Utah completely out of luck now we're #7?

later years, i think

it's top 6 protected next year.

actually kind of a mixed bag for Utah since this year's draft is mediocre

http://82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

rap game draft rater

It's possible that mere moments after David Stern hands off the Larry O'Brien Trophy to Micky Arison or Clay Bennett that he will be in Newark, N.J., announcing that the New Orleans Hornets are on the clock. The Finals are slated to end June 26 (or really, the morning of June 27 if you factor in the ceremony, the interviews, the analysis and all the responsibilities of the players and the league), and the NBA draft is on June 28.

This is why we need to interrupt this riveting NBA Finals for a moment to talk about a bunch of 19-year-olds who have never played a professional game before.

That's right: It's Draft Rater time. I've developed a tool that analyzes college stats to predict NBA performance and have refined it over the past several years. It's something we can use to help identify draft steals and busts.

To review, last season was a pretty good one for the Rater. The 2011 pick with the top chance of success (Kyrie Irving) won Rookie of the Year, three other players it rated highly (Kawhi Leonard, Jon Leuer and Nikola Vucevic) provided great value for their draft position, and long-time favorite Daniel Green emerged as a starter on the West's best regular-season team.

Meanwhile, the Rater was down on Jan Vesely, Josh Selby and Jimmer Fredette. The biggest whiff was on MarShon Brooks, whom it rated as a late second-rounder but was a solid late first-round pick by the Nets. The others were players nobody else rated highly either; Isaiah Thomas, for instance, was No. 57 on my board. It was probably too optimistic about Tristan Thompson as well; he had the highest raw rating of any player but struggled at times as a rookie.

I made a few minor tweaks compared to a year ago -- most notably, I ditched the "Howland" variable, even though it was statistically significant, because it felt like an "overfit" (fitting the model to past results that may not necessarily be predictive) and I had enough significant variables without it. Otherwise, it's basically same as it ever was -- a giant regression model that gets incrementally smarter as we fill it with more data each year and one that I've segmented by position. It's still less predictive with one-and-done players, whom it sees less of statistically before they turn pro, and it's not perfect -- we're trying to project what 19-year-olds will be like at 25, a profoundly inexact science.

Nonetheless, let's zoom back out to the big picture and go through the results from this year's Draft Rater, because I think you'll see that a few points remain paramount.

1. Anthony Davis is obviously the best player

Good thing we came up with this neat model, because I don't know how we could have discerned this information otherwise. Yes, this is a one-star draft. Davis blew up my Draft Rater, as expected, but just as notable is the huge gap between him and the next place on the list.

Davis rates several points ahead of every other player on the board. In fact, the difference between Davis and the No. 2-rated player, Jared Sullinger, is greater than the gap between Sullinger and No. 16 Bradley Beal. And Sullinger's rating comes with asterisks that don't afflict Davis.

2. Remember, we're projecting PER

This gets extremely important when you look at the next few players that Draft Rater highlights and when you look back at some of the players Draft Rater has fawned over mistakenly in recent seasons. In each, you'll notice a huge propensity toward defensively lacking power forwards -- players like Michael Beasley, Charlie Villanueva and Tyrus Thomas, who had some of the best marks in recent seasons.

That's not a failure of Draft Rater as much as a failure of what I've asked it to do: project NBA PER from college stats. It did that; Beasley, Villanueva and Thomas all have excellent career PER marks. They just aren't very good in spite of those numbers due to their defensive shortcomings and questions about their fit in the team concept.

So let's take a closer look at two relatively short, stocky power forwards who are among the next names on the list: Sullinger and Draymond Green. Will these guys put up numbers? Very likely. Will they be able to guard their position? That is a much more open question and why they won't go as highly as Draft Rater places them. Green, in particular, is a massive defensive question mark.

This applies to a lesser extent to the next several players. Terrence Jones and Royce White, who also has anxiety issues that may affect his draft position, are much more offensive players who are an inch short for the power forward spot, and Furkan Aldemir of Turkey -- who rates as a mid-first-rounder although he probably won't be taken until the middle of the second round -- has defensive shortcomings too.

At least that makes it easy to pick out the second-best big man this year: Thomas Robinson of Kansas, who has no such defensive shortcomings and should be able to score effectively with his athleticism around the rim.

Also warranting looks later in the lottery are two project-level bigs with more upside, especially at the defensive end: Andre Drummond and John Henson. Henson has a slightly higher rating, but as a 7-foot center, Drummond is virtually certain to be the higher pick.

Finally, a sleeper among bigs is Henry Sims of Georgetown. He is not a great athlete and will struggle defensively, but he is a high skill guy who could be a second-round steal.

Bigs: The Best
Name College/Country Rating
Anthony Davis Kentucky 22.23
Jared Sullinger Ohio State 16.86
Thomas Robinson Kansas 15.20
Draymond Green Michigan State 14.84
Terrence Jones Kentucky 14.28
Royce White Iowa State 14.07
Furkan Aldemir Turkey 12.87
John Henson North Carolina 12.11
Andre Drummond Connecticut 12.05
Henry Sims Georgetown 10.38

3. High-rated wings usually deliver

As I noted with Leonard a year ago, wing players -- especially bigger ones -- with strong Draft Rater marks virtually never fail. Of the eight players to rate above 13 in the past decade, the worst among them was Josh Childress. Five of the players have played in an All-Star Game, and Rudy Gay may play in an All-Star Game soon. The seventh player is Leonard.

This year, we have two names to add to that list: Dion Waiters and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Kidd-Gilchrist is probably the safest pick on the board -- a big wing who plays defense, has strong stats and comes with no character questions. From a risk-aversion perspective alone he should be a top-five pick; I have him third on my board after Robinson. (See below for how I would rank the prospects, regardless of their Draft Rater numbers.)

I have Waiters fourth for similar reasons. His size, 6-foot-4, is more of a concern, but whatever team made him a promise did a wise thing. Waiters projects as the best small wing since Dwyane Wade, and he'd be a steal if somebody got him in the Nos. 8-10 range currently being discussed.

The other wing everybody is sleeping on is Quincy Miller of Baylor, who put up a strong mark despite coming off an ACL injury. He has more questions marks because of the knee and his bony build, but he is long and can score. The stories of him slipping have me baffled, because he rates as a top-10 pick.

Two other wings who will be drafted highly don't rate as strongly: Beal and Harrison Barnes. Most players in their range turn out to be solid, but this part of the pool doesn't produce many stars. I'd be more comfortable taking these two in the later part of the lottery.

Doronand Jeremy Lamb added to the perpetual confusion between the two by posting virtually the same rating, although this may be the only one that had Doron rated higher. Jeremy is likely to go 15 picks sooner given his higher ceiling, but Doron could be a great pickup in the late first or early second round as a Courtney Lee clone who hits 3s and defends.

The other wing worth a first-round look is Memphis' Will Barton, whom most have slotted as a second-rounder and who rates as a nice sleeper.

Perimeter Players: The Best
Name College/Country Rating
Dion Waiters Syracuse 14.12
Kendall Marshall North Carolina 13.84
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Kentucky 13.58
Marquis Teague Kentucky 13.18
Quincy Miller Baylor 12.94
Tony Wroten Washington 12.21
Bradley Beal Florida 11.65
Kostas Sloukas Greece 11.51
Harrison Barnes North Carolina 11.11
Will Barton Memphis 10.90
Doron Lamb Kentucky 10.65
Jeremy Lamb Connecticut 10.50

4. The point guard conundrum

Point guard is the hardest position to draft because so much depends on improvement once the player turns pro. Unless it's an overwhelming talent such as Chris Paul or Irving, the smarter play is usually to draft this position late and hope for the best.

This year, several point guards rate as first-round talents, and there is little to separate them. North Carolina's Kendall Marshall is the highest rated of the bunch and the safest pick, but he offers the least upside. Often compared to Mark Jackson because of his size, acumen and lack of athleticism, he is a solid mid-first-round pick. A poor man's version of Marshall might be Kostas Sloukas of Greece, who has solid translated Euroleague stats but will be a late second-rounder if he's drafted at all because of his questionable athleticism.

On the other hand, Marquis Teague of Kentucky and Tony Wroten of Washington have talent to spare and star upside. The question is whether each can harness it. Teague was plagued by turnovers, especially early in the year, but he is an athletic scoring point guard in the mold of his older brother, the Atlanta Hawks' Jeff Teague. Wroten, meanwhile, is enormous for a point guard (6-6) and can really see the floor, but he can't shoot and has lots of character questions.

Among Marshall, Wroten and Teague, it really is dealer's choice as to how much risk you're willing to take on for the reward. By the mid-first round I start liking Wroten's star potential quite a bit, but others may wish to play it more safely.

5. The rest of the bigs

In the tail end of the first round and throughout the second, we're sorting through several big men with fairly weak Draft Rater résumés. The Rater is a particularly harsh judge at the center position, where it frowns on the prospects of four centers with first-round aspirations -- Tyler Zeller, Meyers Leonard, Fab Melo and Festus Ezeli -- and flat-out mocks Miles Plumlee, who is off-the-charts bad with a 2.49 Draft Rater projection.

Plumlee aside, the other four are probably worthy of late first-round picks despite any misgivings, simply because size is such a rare commodity. Even if they can become just decent backup centers, taking them low in the first round makes sense. Two other 7-footers, Garrett Stutz of Wichita State and Robert Sacre of Gonzaga, shape up as solid second-rounders if we apply similar reasoning.

At the power forward spot, Perry Jones III is rated several notches lower than most, while two other likely first-rounders, Andrew Nicholson and Arnett Moultrie, rate as second-round picks. Also of note is Croatian forward Leon Radosevic as a decent second-round value play.

Bigs: The Rest
Name College/Country Rating
Perry Jones III Baylor 8.77
Leon Radosevic Croatia 8.77
JaMychal Green Alabama 8.73
Drew Gordon New Mexico 8.39
Tyler Zeller North Carolina 8.23
Andrew Nicholson St. Bonaventure 8.22
Quincy Acy Baylor 8.16
Fab Melo Syracuse 7.73
Garrett Stutz Wichita State 7.68
Mike Scott Virginia 7.50
Robert Sacre Gonzaga 7.37
Cameron Moore UAB 7.03
Meyers Leonard Illinois 7.02
Mitchell Watt Buffalo 6.77
Festus Ezeli Vanderbilt 6.54
Arnett Moultrie Mississippi State 6.42

6. Potential perimeter busts

One player that Draft Rater isn't crazy about is Damian Lillard of Weber State, who compiled strong numbers but did so against a weak schedule and is much older than most of the prospects at his position. He not only failed to outrank the top point guards above but also rates behind the less-heralded Tyshawn Taylor of Kansas. No. 6 clearly seems a stretch for Lillard, who looks more like a mid-to-late first-rounder in this analysis.

On the wings, a few potential first-rounders also fare poorly. Moe Harkless of St. John's had one of the worst ratings of any first-round prospect. While the error rate on one-and-done players has been higher, the difference between Harkless and the other lottery candidates is well outside the standard error of the Rater.

In addition to Harkless, first-round prospects John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor of Vanderbilt fared poorly. Another first-round prospect from overseas, Evan Fournier of France, didn't play in the Euroleague this year and thus has no projection. Subjectively, I'm not sold on him -- he's basically a slashing scorer who isn't athletic enough to score that way in the NBA -- but he at least has the benefit of being only 19.

One player gathering momentum is Kostas Papanikolaou of Greece, who shapes up as a solid second-round stash pick. Two other wing prospects -- Austin Rivers and Terrence Ross -- shape up about where we'd expect as mid-to-late first rounders, but after those two, the pool thins out quickly.

A final sleeper to watch is Maryland point guard Terrell Stoglin, another guy who would make a great second-rounder.

Perimeter Players: The Rest
Name College/Country Rating
Tyshawn Taylor Kansas 10.19
Austin Rivers Duke 9.85
Terrell Stoglin Maryland 9.82
Damian Lillard Weber State 9.75
Kostas Papanikolaou Greece 9.26
Terrence Ross Washington 9.12
Elias Harris Gonzaga 8.64
William Buford Ohio State 8.58
J'Covan Brown Texas 8.49
Jordan Taylor Wisconsin 8.19
Reggie Hamilton Oakland 8.18
Maalik Wayns Villanova 8.02
Hollis Thompson Georgetown 8.01
Tony Mitchell Alabama 7.91
Jae Crowder Marquette 7.90
Jared Cunningham Oregon State 7.76
John Jenkins Vanderbilt 7.76
Khris Middleton Texas A&M 7.68
Scott Machado Iona 7.57
Tornike Shengelia Republic of Georgia 7.33
Moe Harkless St. John's 7.15
Tu Holloway Xavier 7.14
Orlando Johnson UC Santa Barbara 7.11
Darius Miller Kentucky 6.65
Jeffery Taylor Vanderbilt 6.59

7. Making my board

Knowing everything we know, here is how my board looks heading into draft day. This is taking into account everything from the Draft Rater as well as what we know about the players' red flags, defensive pluses and minuses and one or two subjective calls:

1. Anthony Davis
2. Thomas Robinson
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
4. Dion Waiters
5. Andre Drummond

6. Quincy Miller
7. Jared Sullinger
8. Terrence Jones
9. John Henson
10. Royce White

11. Bradley Beal
12. Harrison Barnes
13. Tony Wroten
14. Kendall Marshall
15. Marquis Teague

16. Draymond Green
17. Jeremy Lamb
18. Damian Lillard
19. Austin Rivers
20. Doron Lamb

21. Furkan Aldemir
22. Will Barton
23. Tyler Zeller
24. Evan Fournier
25. Tyshawn Taylor

26. Meyers Leonard
27. Terrence Ross
28. Perry Jones
29. Festus Ezeli
30. Fab Melo

31. Kostas Sloukas
32. Henry Sims
33. Terrell Stoglin
34. Kostas Papanikolaou
35. Moe Harkless

36. Leon Radosevic
37. JaMychal Green
38. Andrew Nicholson
39. Drew Gordon
40. Garrett Stutz

41. Robert Sacre
42. Arnett Moultrie
43. Elias Harris
44. William Buford
45. Jae Crowder

46. Jared Cunningham
47. Jordan Taylor
48. John Jenkins
49. Orlando Johnson
50. Jeffrey Taylor

51. Quincy Acy
52. Maalik Wayns
53. Tornike Shengelia
54. Scott Machado
55. Mike Scott

56. J'Covan Brown
57. Reggie Hamilton
58. Khris Middleton
59. Tony Mitchell
60. Miles Plumlee

Sullinger apparently has a health red flag concerning his back.

know-it-all jay bilas:

1. Anthony Davis, Kentucky Wildcats
Davis is the best prospect in this draft and a "once in a decade" talent. His length, athleticism and stunning defensive range alone make him the top selection. Add in his tremendous hands, offensive potential and his selfless attitude, and you have a winner.

2. Bradley Beal, Florida Gators
Beal is likened to Ray Allen, even though he shot only 34 percent from 3-point range as a freshman. But Beal shot the ball better in the last half of the season, including better than 43 percent from deep in the last six games. Allen also shot his lowest percentage as a college freshman at UConn. Beal is athletic, efficient and can defend and rebound. He needs work on his handle, but he's a really good prospect.

3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky
The only thing you can complain about with MKG is his shooting mechanics. He doesn't square his body to the target or release it on the way up, and he does not have a natural, repeating stroke with a consistent release point. So what? You are not drafting this guy for offense. He is long, athletic, defensively versatile and absolutely relentless. He can guard anyone and is great in transition and attacking the rim. If his shot improves, great. If not, he is still worthy of this ranking.

4. Thomas Robinson, Kansas Jayhawks
Robinson has started for only one season at Kansas, and his outstanding per-minute averages did not go down a bit when his minutes more than doubled. He is a prototype power forward who can face up, post deep, move his feet on ball-screen action and rebound at a really high rate. His post game is not refined, and he is not a passer, but he is productive and should continue to improve. He may not be a superstar, but he will be a productive workhorse.

5. Harrison Barnes, North Carolina Tar Heels
In high school, I thought Barnes was super athletic and always made the right play. In college, I questioned his athleticism and his basketball IQ. Well, I am doubling down on Barnes because I think he will be a better pro than a college player. He is an outstanding jump shooter, really good at midrange and incredibly athletic with potential at both ends. Barnes is a thinker who is process-oriented, but with more time to work on his game, I like him better as a pro. And he was a heck of a college player, notwithstanding the super high expectations.

6. Andre Drummond, Connecticut Huskies
Size, athleticism, length and impressive "measurables" make Drummond a man of intrigue in this draft. You hear both Dwight Howard and Kwame Brown when his name is mentioned. Drummond's future depends on one thing -- his internal drive. If he works and is passionate about his game and development, he can be really good. If not, he can fail to live up to his potential. He lacks offensive polish and does not make free throws. But he is a freak athlete who can block shots, rebound and finish around the goal. He really moves his feet and can really run. Drummond could make you look really smart or get you canned.

7. Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut
Lamb is a scorer and shooter with really good athleticism and length. He is a good defender and can get his own shot and get it off over size with his long arms and high release. Lamb is not a passer and does not get to the free throw line as much as he should, but he is good in transition and has terrific ability.

8. Damian Lillard, Weber State Wildcats
Lillard has great tools as a scorer, including explosive athleticism and a will to improve. He is a terrific shooter from range, does a great job in transition and can really attack the lane and get to the free throw line. Whether he can be a point guard is the real question. Lillard is not a great passer or decision-maker, and he needs to better see the game, especially off of ball screens. He is, however, the best point guard prospect in this draft.

9. Dion Waiters, Syracuse Orange
Waiters is an attack guard who is terrific in transition, a powerful driver and an aggressive scorer. His body, strength and attack mentality make him a weapon, especially on the offensive end. Even though Waiters played mostly in Jim Boeheim's zone, I believe he will be a good defender in the NBA.

10. Perry Jones III, Baylor Bears
If you are old enough or watched Nickelodeon as a kid, you will recall Greg Brady's foray into music when he was selected to be the next Johnny Bravo because he "fit the suit." Jones is Johnny Bravo. He has the size, athleticism, tools, skills and look that makes him fit the NBA suit. There is only one question about Jones: Is he tough enough and does he have the inner drive to do it under the brightest lights? He is still really young in the game and is worth the risk. He has upside and is a terrific kid.

11. Austin Rivers, Duke Blue Devils
Rivers is really good with the ball, breaks down defenders without the need for a ball screen and can get by most anyone. With tremendous quickness, especially when the ball is in his hands, Rivers can get the ball to the rim in a hurry, and he has great instincts to score. He is 6-foot-5 and has a terrific competitive spirit. He gets some heat for being cocky, but what really good player is not confident to the point of cockiness? He is good defensively and accepts challenges of guarding the best perimeter players, and he gets to the free throw line at a high rate. Can Rivers play point in the NBA? I think he can, but he needs to learn to play without the ball.

12. Tyler Zeller, North Carolina
Zeller has a skill that sets him apart from any big man in this draft, and the vast majority of big men in the NBA: He can really run the floor. Zeller's ability to change ends puts tremendous pressure on opposing big men. Zeller is a good post defender who breaks contact to get deflections and rebounds at a really high rate. He needs to better hold position down low, but he is strong and has a good frame. He has a nice touch, hits a trail jumper and knocks down his free throws.

13. Jared Sullinger, Ohio State Buckeyes
Sullinger is not tall, but he is really long and uses his big body well around the paint. He rebounds very well but is not a shot-blocker or shot-changer. Sullinger is not a great athlete and, in fact, tested at the bottom among prospects at the NBA draft combine, which was not a surprise. His level of success in the NBA will depend upon his ability to hit a face-up jumper to 20 feet, which he improved upon last season.

14. John Henson, North Carolina
Henson was projected as a small forward coming out of high school, but it seems that power forward is his best spot. He has freaky length and can block shots and rebound, and his offensive game has improved to the point of being able to hit a face-up shot to 17 feet or so. He is unorthodox and does not carry a lot of bulk, but his length, shot-blocking ability and rebounding make him a very good prospect.

15. Meyers Leonard, Illinois Fighting Illini
Leonard is a true 7-footer who is very athletic, blocks shots, can step out and shoot or drive and has a really nice offensive skill set. Leonard is still very young in the game and improved greatly last season. The only question about Leonard is his toughness. There are times he settles and doesn't go into contact and use his size and strength. He does not rebound at a high rate, and he needs to fight harder for post position on both ends of the floor. That said, Leonard is a fine prospect who has terrific potential as an NBA center.

16. Terrence Jones, Kentucky
Jones is a lefty who is athletic, very strong and has improved his rebounding and toughness during the past year. He has a really good frame, can drive it past an opposing big and can step away and knock down a perimeter jumper. Like most players with size and skills, the only question marks have to do with consistency.

17. Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi State Bulldogs
Moultrie is a really good rebounder with length and size who has improved every year. He has a nice touch and improved his free throw shooting, which speaks very well of him and is an indicator he will continue to work on his weaknesses. Moultrie has athleticism and mobility, and most impressive is his willingness to move without the ball and willingness to do the dirty work. He played on a dysfunctional team and didn't always have the best body language, but he has ability.

18. Kendall Marshall, North Carolina
Marshall is a left-hander with extraordinary vision, passing ability and leadership. He has good size but lacks foot speed and the ability to get by people off the dribble. Marshall is not a great shooter or scorer but is excellent in transition, and his teammates run because he will find them. He averaged almost 10 assists per game but did not score efficiently. He can hit a wide-open standstill jumper but is not a driver or penetrator. His defense is lacking, but he is able to use his size and is smart about playing off of quicker guards and using angles to cover up speed and quickness disadvantages. Marshall has decent straight-line speed but not quickness.

19. Moe Harkless, St. John's Red Storm
Harkless is really talented and athletic. He has good rise and the ability to get to the rim going right, and he can rebound at a high rate. He was guarded mostly by interior players, which gave him a driving advantage, but he is good in transition and has the ability to be a really good and versatile defender. Harkless lacks physical strength and is not a shooter or handler, and he needs to be able to drive it to his left and finish, but he has a willingness to work and can improve those areas.

20. Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure Bonnies
Nicholson has an NBA frame with length and strength, and he can rebound and score at a high rate. He is a very good offensive rebounder, can step away and hit a face-up jumper, and he blocks shots and can guard in the post. Nicholson also does a nice job on the block offensively and has really good feet and post moves. The masses may not know him, but Nicholson will be a very good NBA player.

21. Tony Wroten Jr., Washington Huskies
Wroten was the best passer coming out of high school last year and is a lefty with size and athleticism. He can get by people and bully his way into the lane, and he gets fouled at a very high rate and shoots a ton of free throws. Wroten can be a very good defender but is not one yet. He turns the ball over at a high rate because of questionable decisions, and he is a non-shooter, neither from deep nor from the free throw line. He can be a point with size, and he has great tools. I liken him to a bigger but very raw Rajon Rondo.

22. Marquis Teague, Kentucky
Teague was overshadowed by the super talent on his title team, but he is a very good point guard prospect. He has good size, length and athleticism for a point guard, and he has very good speed with the ball. Teague is not a shooter and has had some trouble with turnovers and adjusting to running a team. He can drive it and is very good in the open floor, and he is good off of ball screens and finishing at the goal. His challenge is to improve his decision-making in the half court.

23. Terrence Ross, Washington
Ross is an excellent shooter and athlete who is very good in catch-and-shoot situations and coming off of screens. He runs hard in transition, and Washington looked to him for shots and lobs after timeouts. He is a good defender on the ball but needs to improve off the ball. Ross is not a great handler and drives right to get to the rim and left to pull up.

24. Jeff Taylor, Vanderbilt Commodores
Taylor is an outstanding athlete who is a very versatile defender and has the ability to play in the open floor and get to the rim and finish. He is a vastly improved shooter and has become far more consistent. He still needs to improve his free throw shooting, but he has become a tougher player on both ends.

25. Fab Melo, Syracuse
Melo improved his mobility, his conditioning and his strength last season, and he was a reliable player who could change ends, challenge shots and has the ability to rebound (although he does not rebound at a high enough rate on the defensive end). Melo improved his free throw shooting and finishes around the rim, but he is not a naturally gifted offensive talent. He is raw and needs work, but he has good hands and has made some limited strides.

26. Royce White, Iowa State Cyclones
White has the tools to be outstanding at the pro level. He is versatile, big and really strong, and he has an uncanny knack for passing after getting by a defender and making a play off the bounce. With a 7-foot wingspan, he can rebound and has really good body balance to take contact and finish. White is not a shooter or (despite his steals) a consistent or willing defender, but he led Iowa State in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals. He has some questions regarding his anxiety disorder and some off-court issues, and all are legitimate questions. If, however, a team is satisfied those questions are answered, he could be a real theft late in the first round.

27. John Jenkins, Vanderbilt
Jenkins is the best shooter in this draft and gets his shots off of screens and relocations. He does not get his own shot and is neither a great handler nor defender. Jenkins has a specialized skill, and that is of a shooter. With a penetrating point and an interior threat, Jenkins can help spread the floor and knock down perimeter shots with consistency.

28. Quincy Miller, Baylor
At 6-10 with skills and talent, Miller has a lot of tools. He came off of a knee injury last season but showed his scoring instincts and midrange and face-up skills in having some extraordinary performances for a first-year player. Miller was not consistent, however, and did not always play with fire. He is versatile and lengthy with very good ball skills, midrange shooting and the length to be a decent defender. He is not a great athlete, needs to get much stronger and tougher and must improve his shooting range, but Miller has some ability and skills.

29. Draymond Green, Michigan State Spartans
Green is a classic "tweener," who has really long arms and tremendous heart and will. He can rebound, pass, face up and step away, and he can hit the college 3-point shot. Green is very good in the post and does the little things a team needs to win. He is not, however, an NBA athlete. I still believe he can play at the next level because of his ability to rebound, but guarding more athletic small forwards or bigger power forwards will be a challenge.

30. Evan Fournier, France
I have not seen Fournier in person, but he has physical tools, finishing ability, good feet and a very good skill level. Fran Fraschilla noted that Fournier is the best foreign prospect in this draft and was the best prospect at this year's Eurocamp. Fournier is very young and lacks strength, but he can help a team, if given the necessary time to develop.

Bilas uses the word "really" 24 times in that Mock.

Ohio State Buckeyes big man Jared Sullinger has been medically red flagged by NBA doctors, multiple league sources told ESPN.com on Monday.

Alas! I would that they had flagged Mr. Oden, late of Ohio State, as promptly. Alack-a-day!

_Ohio State Buckeyes big man Jared Sullinger has been medically red flagged by NBA doctors, multiple league sources told ESPN.com on Monday._

Ford has him sliding to 20 in his latest mock. He dropped perry jones out of the lottery too (19).

Picks 2 through 5 look like a toss up right now.