How Many Home Runs Will Jose Bautista Hit in 2011?

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Jose Bautista is surprisingly the MLB leader in home runs this season. How many will he hit next season?

Poll Results

OptionVotes
20-29 8
0-9 2
40+ 1
30-39 1
10-19 0


no gut busting joke can change history (polyphonic), Friday, 27 August 2010 05:51 (ten years ago) link

20-29

prob the safest guess

J0rdan S., Friday, 27 August 2010 05:52 (ten years ago) link

voted 0-9 because I plan on injuring him at the beginning of the season

Z S, Friday, 27 August 2010 05:54 (ten years ago) link

What will your technique be?

no gut busting joke can change history (polyphonic), Friday, 27 August 2010 05:57 (ten years ago) link

are we supposed to take into account his upcoming 50 game suspension for performance enhancing drugs

J0rdan S., Friday, 27 August 2010 05:59 (ten years ago) link

If you believe such a thing will happen, sure.

no gut busting joke can change history (polyphonic), Friday, 27 August 2010 06:09 (ten years ago) link

i was being sarcastic

J0rdan S., Friday, 27 August 2010 06:13 (ten years ago) link

gonna go with 20-29 but my opinion could change depending on what he does for the rest of the season

ciderpress, Friday, 27 August 2010 13:13 (ten years ago) link

I also think that the safest choice is 20-29, but I'm slowly becoming convinced that he really did make major changes to his swing and that this year wasn't a total fluke, so I voted 30-39 (FWIW, closer to 30 than to 39).

NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 27 August 2010 13:16 (ten years ago) link

yeah i think the best projection is gonna be ~30-33 for a full season but i'm erring on the low side since he can lose playing time but he can't gain it

ciderpress, Friday, 27 August 2010 13:22 (ten years ago) link

he's doing this by literally pulling everything his bat touches and that's got to be exploitable somehow. his spray chart is pretty hilarious, none of the 41 HR so far are opposite field or even to center

ciderpress, Friday, 27 August 2010 13:24 (ten years ago) link

I'll be following this up with a most exiting "How many home runs will Vernon Wells hit next year?" poll: 14-16, 17-19, 20-22, more than 22 but less than 25, 25 exactly.

clemenza, Saturday, 28 August 2010 01:01 (ten years ago) link

Bautista went deep off Verlander tonight. Later on, he missed a changeup by what appeared to be a full foot.

Andy K, Saturday, 28 August 2010 01:44 (ten years ago) link

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

System, Saturday, 28 August 2010 23:01 (ten years ago) link

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

System, Sunday, 29 August 2010 23:01 (ten years ago) link

i want to do this as a pool next year. i',m totally calling 28 right now

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 30 August 2010 05:53 (ten years ago) link

three weeks pass...

starting to feel like he'll crack 30 now

ciderpress, Monday, 20 September 2010 16:17 (ten years ago) link

I've heard a couple of times that he now has the second-highest one-year jump ever. Behind Brady Anderson? One of those odd things I don't know how to check online--it's got to be Anderson, right?

clemenza, Tuesday, 21 September 2010 00:54 (ten years ago) link

my guess was davey johnson, looks like i was otm: 5 hr to 43 hr (brady was 16 to 50.)

('_') (omar little), Tuesday, 21 September 2010 01:12 (ten years ago) link

btw from 1-61* the only home run totals that haven't been achieved in a single season are 53 and 55.

('_') (omar little), Tuesday, 21 September 2010 01:13 (ten years ago) link

Forget all about Johnson. The three-guys-over-40 team: sci-fi in '73.

clemenza, Tuesday, 21 September 2010 01:44 (ten years ago) link

"Forgot"...not disputing you!

clemenza, Tuesday, 21 September 2010 01:52 (ten years ago) link

I was at tonight's game with a Japanese friend and his wife who wanted to see Ichiro. Bautista had five chances for his 50th, couldn't do it. (Ichiro was 4-4.) It would have such a fluke if he'd done it, because I was there in '86 when Barfield became the first Jay to hit 40. If only: I would have been all set for a return visit in 2034 to see Travis Snider, Jr. become the first Jay to hit 60.

clemenza, Wednesday, 22 September 2010 02:16 (ten years ago) link

I meant to say...I should probably post this on the Seattle thread, but I'm afraid I'll get chased out. The Mariners' offense is worse than I even imagined. Four guys in their starting lineup were hitting under .200, including clean-up (.199). One starter was in double-digits for home runs (10). The starters had combined for 44 HR going into the game, four less than Bautista. It was like that year where Ruth outhomered every other team in the league.

clemenza, Wednesday, 22 September 2010 02:36 (ten years ago) link

saw this linked on bbtf

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/jose-bautista/hitchart/154727

dude had a grand total of 6 hits to right, right center at Rodgers center.. impressive. kinda.

mayor jingleberries, Friday, 24 September 2010 00:07 (ten years ago) link

going for 60 now apparently

ciderpress, Saturday, 25 September 2010 01:33 (ten years ago) link

ya - two today! wow.

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Saturday, 25 September 2010 03:56 (ten years ago) link

The Common Man (Parts unknown)

Do you buy the notion that rebuilding Jose Bautista's swing turned him into a homer machine? Or is this season a Brady Anderson like fluke?

Klaw (1:09 PM)

The latter.

I guess Klaw votes for 10-19.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 26 September 2010 21:14 (ten years ago) link

i think later in the chat he pegs bautista for 28 homers next year

shartopus (J0rdan S.), Monday, 27 September 2010 06:00 (ten years ago) link

Nice piece by Joe Posnanski about the 32 Flukiest Home Run Seasons. Bautista is at #5.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 27 September 2010 15:40 (ten years ago) link

Oh yeah, link

NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 27 September 2010 15:41 (ten years ago) link

I might have included Jim Hickman's 31 in 1970.

clemenza, Monday, 27 September 2010 16:52 (ten years ago) link

the closest guy to bautista in terms of a jump in numbers (if not in other areas and minus the stint in japan) kinda seems to be cecil fielder.

('_') (omar little), Monday, 27 September 2010 17:42 (ten years ago) link

Maybe he's taking performance-enhancing cupcakes.

funky house skeptic (polyphonic), Monday, 27 September 2010 17:51 (ten years ago) link

there's a couple flukey HR seasons every year, people just don't notice as much if they don't crack 40 or 50

ciderpress, Monday, 27 September 2010 18:22 (ten years ago) link

that was an interesting list. #32 was pretty lol

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 27 September 2010 18:44 (ten years ago) link

Bautista is at #25 on the all-time single-season home run list.

funky house skeptic (polyphonic), Monday, 27 September 2010 18:45 (ten years ago) link

8. Roger Maris, 1961 (61 homers)

If there were no roids and Bautista was closing in on the HR record, he would probably be hated on Maris style as described by Pos.

mayor jingleberries, Monday, 27 September 2010 21:43 (ten years ago) link

this guy hit number 52 today (51 went over the fence).

incredible

Bee OK, Friday, 1 October 2010 02:57 (ten years ago) link

sorry, it's the more ridiculas number of 54.

Bee OK, Friday, 1 October 2010 03:03 (ten years ago) link

- J. Bautista homered to deep right

he did it!

ciderpress, Friday, 1 October 2010 12:29 (ten years ago) link

does he have another arb-year next year or is he a free agent this offseason?

ciderpress, Friday, 1 October 2010 13:36 (ten years ago) link

ok he seems to be a super-two so one more year w/ jays

ciderpress, Friday, 1 October 2010 14:04 (ten years ago) link

daaamn

progressive cuts (Tracer Hand), Friday, 1 October 2010 14:08 (ten years ago) link

holy shit. 54 left field shots and one to right. amazing.

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 1 October 2010 14:17 (ten years ago) link

Will 27 minutes ago

I say he doesn't hit more than 19.

benjidoc 18 minutes ago in reply to Will

I say you're a retard.

mayor jingleberries, Thursday, 14 October 2010 18:48 (ten years ago) link

six months pass...

Projecting to hit 54 again this year.

it's time for the fish in the perculator (Steve Shasta), Monday, 25 April 2011 18:34 (nine years ago) link

he has 19 BB already and i think none of them are intentional. also: 19 runs scored, all through 18 games.

omar little, Monday, 25 April 2011 19:13 (nine years ago) link

alot of them had been of the unintentional intentional variety.

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 25 April 2011 20:21 (nine years ago) link

is slugging .800 atm

johnny crunch, Saturday, 30 April 2011 21:05 (nine years ago) link

we might've needed to add a 50+ option

J0rdan S., Saturday, 30 April 2011 21:08 (nine years ago) link

two weeks pass...

Projecting to 61 atm.

it's time for the fish in the perculator (Steve Shasta), Sunday, 15 May 2011 19:19 (nine years ago) link

best player in the game right now (ahead of that guy on the cardinals, or one of those two guys: holliday and berkman...)

omar little, Sunday, 15 May 2011 19:38 (nine years ago) link

ahead of that guy on the cardinals

yeah, i'll rep for Rasmus.

it's time for the fish in the perculator (Steve Shasta), Sunday, 15 May 2011 19:42 (nine years ago) link

the jays announcer after bautista's second hr: "bautista is a major leaguer playing out of his league"

J0rdan S., Sunday, 15 May 2011 19:43 (nine years ago) link

Unbelievable.

clemenza, Sunday, 15 May 2011 19:57 (nine years ago) link

I think he has a pretty good chance at two more AB.

clemenza, Sunday, 15 May 2011 19:59 (nine years ago) link

BAUTISTA

J0rdan S., Sunday, 15 May 2011 19:59 (nine years ago) link

Got a little carried away...short of big rally, he gets one more AB.

clemenza, Sunday, 15 May 2011 20:01 (nine years ago) link

UH

johnny crunch, Sunday, 15 May 2011 20:37 (nine years ago) link

unreal

it's time for the fish in the perculator (Steve Shasta), Sunday, 15 May 2011 20:39 (nine years ago) link

he's at 16 now - which was his career high before 2010.

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 15 May 2011 20:57 (nine years ago) link

who is most often batting behind him? Seems like JB would start getting the Bonds treatment at this clip.

it's time for the fish in the perculator (Steve Shasta), Sunday, 15 May 2011 20:59 (nine years ago) link

JeffPassan Jeff Passan
Bautista is now slugging .868 -- higher than Barry Bonds' record .863 in 2001 and Babe Ruth's .847 in 1920.

A Chuck Person's Guide to Mark Aguirre (Andy K), Sunday, 15 May 2011 21:00 (nine years ago) link

holy shit.

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 15 May 2011 21:01 (nine years ago) link

Lind was batting behind him up until recently.

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 15 May 2011 21:02 (nine years ago) link

they just said on the radio he's on pace for 77!

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 15 May 2011 21:02 (nine years ago) link

everyone calm down and wait for July

resistance does not require a firearm (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 17 May 2011 01:42 (nine years ago) link

(July was his best month last year)

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 17 May 2011 14:16 (nine years ago) link

well, he's just made that more difficult to repeat!

resistance does not require a firearm (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 17 May 2011 14:26 (nine years ago) link

one month passes...

the man keeps on giving:

"This guy isn't like Mike Schmidt," Ricciardi said. "He's not going to come out and hit 40 home runs."

sanskrit, Monday, 20 June 2011 01:20 (nine years ago) link

all-star votes cast for Bats so far: 5,263,840
next closest vote total (Cano) is trailing by over 500,000!

one month passes...

Anyone care for a re-poll?

francisF, Thursday, 18 August 2011 07:02 (nine years ago) link

who gets this treatment for next year, ellsbury?

ciderpress, Thursday, 18 August 2011 12:56 (nine years ago) link

Granderson

NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 18 August 2011 13:20 (nine years ago) link

^ this

sanskrit, Thursday, 18 August 2011 15:25 (nine years ago) link

Gotta do a Brett Lawrie HR poll for next year.

clemenza, Thursday, 18 August 2011 16:06 (nine years ago) link

The person who voted 30-39 still has a shot, albeit a small one.

polyphonic, Thursday, 18 August 2011 17:01 (nine years ago) link

that was me actually (or i might have voted 40+), tho i didn't state that at the time.

Bee OK, Friday, 19 August 2011 06:48 (nine years ago) link

nine years pass...

Weird, but I don't think he ever officially retired. Baseball Reference has an entry for "last game played," but if you google "Jose Bautista retires," the story stops a year ago with various pieces observing the same thing--that he never officially announced.

clemenza, Tuesday, 6 April 2021 12:51 (one week ago) link

wasn't he supposed to be on the mets last year?

I think so...He's definitely done; I'm just intrigued that he never officially announced, like he's holding out a glimmer of hope someone will sign him. The rare super-rich guy I feel a little sorry for in that he never really cashed in like he could have--partly his own fault, but mostly, I think, bad timing beyond his control.

clemenza, Tuesday, 6 April 2021 15:09 (one week ago) link

(Maybe he's more at fault than I think: the words "no home-town discount" come to mind.)

clemenza, Tuesday, 6 April 2021 15:11 (one week ago) link

long island ducks are coming back on the 28th of may i think


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