this Saturday is SABR Day in America (and elsewhere)

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Non-members like you can show up at these events (and bring the average age down).

http://sabr.org/sabr.cfm?a=cms,c,2961,3,158

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 27 January 2010 18:00 (nine years ago) Permalink

I refuse to go to Armadillo Willy's. Why couldn't they actually have it at Lefty O'Douls. :(

Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Wednesday, 27 January 2010 18:11 (nine years ago) Permalink

Since I'm a classy guy, I took Ally there once. Lefty's, that is. I refuse to remember any of the times I've been to Dublin.

Mit der Kattzheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Michael White), Wednesday, 27 January 2010 18:16 (nine years ago) Permalink

never been to any, but i thought Lefty's closed?

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 27 January 2010 18:41 (nine years ago) Permalink

I don't think it has.

Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Wednesday, 27 January 2010 19:40 (nine years ago) Permalink

I thought maybe it moved, and some Bay Area SABRites vowed not to set foot in a fraudulent Lefty's.

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 27 January 2010 20:11 (nine years ago) Permalink

It looks like they'd rather travel 1 hour (plus) outside of the metro area to the most boring suburb imaginable instead? No thanks.

┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 27 January 2010 20:14 (nine years ago) Permalink

well, maybe the core members live in the burbs.

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 27 January 2010 20:18 (nine years ago) Permalink

TOTALLY GONNA BONE

http://sabr.org/images/sabrday2.jpg

sanskrit, Wednesday, 27 January 2010 20:39 (nine years ago) Permalink

I've heard some interesting things in the convention elevators on that score

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 27 January 2010 20:45 (nine years ago) Permalink

ok likelihood of my not attending just went from 99% to a cold 100

call all destroyer, Wednesday, 27 January 2010 20:55 (nine years ago) Permalink

sabr-metrics changed my life

thatwillultimatelyresultingalaxy-galaxymergersonacosmictimescale (jdchurchill), Wednesday, 27 January 2010 20:59 (nine years ago) Permalink

A+ thread!

The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall, Wednesday, 27 January 2010 21:44 (nine years ago) Permalink

the NY one is in cooperstown. nice work, gang

Astronaut Mike Dexter (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Wednesday, 27 January 2010 21:49 (nine years ago) Permalink

Apparently that particular Armadillo Willy's Tony LaRussa passed out drunk in after sexually harrassing a waitress so it's got historical import too.

Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Wednesday, 27 January 2010 23:47 (nine years ago) Permalink

well, maybe the core members live in the burbs.

― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, January 27, 2010 12:18 PM (4 hours ago)

add "in their mother's basements" and yes, i agree!

┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 28 January 2010 00:52 (nine years ago) Permalink

A++ thread!

The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall, Thursday, 28 January 2010 01:06 (nine years ago) Permalink

Shasta are you trying to get a gig w/ the Boston Globe?

Why wouldn't you guys want to fly to an MLB city and hang out with me for 3-4 days, I don't get it.

The NYC chapter's annual meeting is the following Saturday, so that's why they're not doing anything. Details:

http://nyc.sabr.org/PDF/NYC2010SABRmeeting1.pdf

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 28 January 2010 02:32 (nine years ago) Permalink

i just don't want to hear abt sabr attendees planning hookups! and i assume most sabr members are nowhere near as cool as ilbb people. we should have our own convention.

call all destroyer, Thursday, 28 January 2010 03:00 (nine years ago) Permalink

originally thought this was "sobriety for american baseball research day"

djembe jivin’ sidekick (Curt1s Stephens), Thursday, 28 January 2010 03:12 (nine years ago) Permalink

and i assume most sabr members are nowhere near as cool as ilbb people

That is why Rob Neyer and David Laurila talk to me.

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 28 January 2010 03:57 (nine years ago) Permalink

:)

call all destroyer, Thursday, 28 January 2010 03:58 (nine years ago) Permalink

11:20-Noon Dana Brand: The Last Days of Shea: Delight and Despair in the Life of a Mets Fan
Brand brings the past, present and (hopefully) the future of the Mets alive with his
amazin’ knowledge and captivating speaking style, explaining why and in spite of everything
(like last season), millions of loyal fans still chant “ Let’s Go Mets!

ORLY

1:00-1:15 Presentation by Phil Goldberg: "123 01 Roosevelt Ave - Our Love Affair with
Shea Stadium" PowerPoint presentation for those who can’t get enough of the
Mets! Mr. Goldberg also brings an actual piece of Shea Stadium.

fragment of the true cross

1:15-1:30 Presentation by Steven King: "Baseball and New York City Ticker Tape Parades"
The presentation will present an overview of the baseball-related ticker tape parades
with a focus on (their) many oddities.

i'm totally lost here, not sure what team they might be referring to

sanskrit, Thursday, 28 January 2010 04:15 (nine years ago) Permalink

lol

call all destroyer, Thursday, 28 January 2010 04:24 (nine years ago) Permalink

how about the one in '86 where I saw the Board of Estimate but not the hungover players?

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 28 January 2010 04:27 (nine years ago) Permalink

a non-"basement dwelling" cool SABR member, RIP.

http://www.tributes.com/show/Frank-Phelps-87473301

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 30 January 2010 20:34 (nine years ago) Permalink

looks like he was a cool dude.

call all destroyer, Saturday, 30 January 2010 20:44 (nine years ago) Permalink

would go to SABR meetup if it was just a bunch of grandfatherly guys telling stories

call all destroyer, Saturday, 30 January 2010 20:44 (nine years ago) Permalink

well in that case you could just meet morbs for lunch

Goon's Anatomy (J0rdan S.), Saturday, 30 January 2010 20:46 (nine years ago) Permalink

^my new Facebook friend, no good deed goes unpunished!

cad, the MC at the NYC chapter meeting is totally like that! except he's past 80 and may have quit that post. The rank-and-file are by no means fierce statheads.

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 30 January 2010 20:49 (nine years ago) Permalink

hey, I just tied for 4th place at the NYC SABR trivia contest! 17/30, I NEVER do that well. Too bad the prize is 2 passes for the Babe Ruth Museum (been there, not sure I'm getting to Balt in the next 16 months).

Question I'm proudest of getting: Since the Yankees won their first world championship, name the 3 Hall of Fame players who:

*were Yankee teammates
*each played at least 20 regular-season games for the Yankees
*never won a WS with the Yankees.

I got it in about 30 secs w/ no references.

Fusty Moralizer (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 6 February 2010 22:33 (nine years ago) Permalink

that's easy: Dave Winfield, Rickey Henderson, and class of 2011 inductee Don Mattingly

sanskrit, Sunday, 7 February 2010 00:05 (nine years ago) Permalink

yukyuk... work on the 3rd one

Fusty Moralizer (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 7 February 2010 00:13 (nine years ago) Permalink

hey, I just tied for 4th place at the NYC SABR trivia contest!

wow that is awesome dr. m -- congratulations!

Lee Dorrian Gray (J0hn D.), Sunday, 7 February 2010 00:24 (nine years ago) Permalink

thx JD (it's a full life)

Lotsa the regular contenders fell by the wayside cuz there was an unusual number of post-1960 questions.

Fusty Moralizer (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 7 February 2010 00:32 (nine years ago) Permalink

I will be going to loltimore sometime in the next 16 months!

Astronaut Mike Dexter (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Tuesday, 9 February 2010 02:15 (nine years ago) Permalink

have you been to the Babe's Birthplace?

I can't bleeve no one wants the trivia answer...

Fusty Moralizer (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 9 February 2010 02:21 (nine years ago) Permalink

It was killing me, I had to look it up.

I Am Curious (The Yellow Kid), Tuesday, 9 February 2010 05:45 (nine years ago) Permalink

for the incurious: Phil Niekro

Fusty Moralizer (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 9 February 2010 14:28 (nine years ago) Permalink

my co-worker is agonizing over this question right now

call all destroyer, Tuesday, 9 February 2010 14:42 (nine years ago) Permalink

I should email the guy for all 30 questions.

Fusty Moralizer (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 9 February 2010 14:43 (nine years ago) Permalink

do it! i could torture the guy across from me (baseball nut and jeopardy auditioner) for days

call all destroyer, Tuesday, 9 February 2010 14:46 (nine years ago) Permalink

I'm embarrassed at some of the easy ones I missed -- like who's second to Ruth in career American League HRs.

Fusty Moralizer (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 9 February 2010 14:54 (nine years ago) Permalink

arod?

call all destroyer, Tuesday, 9 February 2010 14:56 (nine years ago) Permalink

Yep! (New data takes a few years to penetrate many members' heads.)

I'll ask for the NY Q&A, but you can download trivia from last year's national convention here (I'm sure they're tougher than what I got last weekend):

http://convention.sabr.org/archive/sabr39/112-sabr-39-trivia

Fusty Moralizer (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 9 February 2010 15:25 (nine years ago) Permalink

three months pass...

To shatter the myth that all SABR activities are stats-centric -- the May 2010 Pictorial History Committee photo supplement:

http://www.sabr.org/cmsFiles/Files/Mysteryphoto5-10.pdf

kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 22 May 2010 14:30 (eight years ago) Permalink

ok that is a completely awesome piece and I had an awesome time reading it and it even made my hangover seem less life-threatening!

in which we apologize for sobering up (underrated aerosmith albums I have loved), Saturday, 22 May 2010 15:05 (eight years ago) Permalink

also, Wilbert Robinson has one of the all-time faces.

kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 22 May 2010 15:12 (eight years ago) Permalink

one year passes...

It's the 40th anniversary of SABR.

http://sabr.org/40years

satan club sandwich (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 10 August 2011 19:53 (seven years ago) Permalink

three weeks pass...

Not sure where else to ask this... Does ERA measure a pitcher's ability any better than hits allowed? I guess I'm asking: is it a thing that better pitchers pitch better when there are runners on base?

Mordy, Wednesday, 31 August 2011 00:33 (seven years ago) Permalink

Obv walks but...

Mordy, Wednesday, 31 August 2011 01:02 (seven years ago) Permalink

pitching better when there are runners on base sounds suspiciously like repeatable clutch ability, so I have doubts that it's substantial.

incredibly middlebrow (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 31 August 2011 03:13 (seven years ago) Permalink

couldn't windup vs. stretch have some statistical difference?

iatee, Wednesday, 31 August 2011 03:15 (seven years ago) Permalink

I'm not sure if those numbers are significant or not, but there does appear to be variation

Mordy, Wednesday, 31 August 2011 03:20 (seven years ago) Permalink

like, the tOPS+ goes (significantly? idk) down for each runner on base after the first

Mordy, Wednesday, 31 August 2011 03:23 (seven years ago) Permalink

probably not significant after looking at other runner combos (like 12- is below average)

Mordy, Wednesday, 31 August 2011 03:24 (seven years ago) Permalink

Does anyone know how comparable pitcher WAR is to batter WAR? Also -- to what extent hitting stats are factored into a pitcher's war? Like does a hitting pitcher's WAR account for the added hits he gives his team above a comparable pitcher who never hits?

Mordy, Sunday, 4 September 2011 02:49 (seven years ago) Permalink

There is WAR for pitching, and then total WAR for the player that adds in his pitching and fielding. You can see the diff on both the B-R and Fangraphs charts if you look at all of them, I think.

incredibly middlebrow (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 4 September 2011 04:40 (seven years ago) Permalink

his batting and fielding, I meant

incredibly middlebrow (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 4 September 2011 04:40 (seven years ago) Permalink

Not sure where else to ask this... Does ERA measure a pitcher's ability any better than hits allowed? I guess I'm asking: is it a thing that better pitchers pitch better when there are runners on base?

― Mordy, Tuesday, August 30, 2011 5:33 PM (4 days ago)

Generally, a groundball pitcher will allow less extra base hits vs. a flyball pitcher. Flyball "hits" tend to go for extra bases. Therefore a groundball pitcher could give up 3 singles and get out of an inning unscathed, whereas a flyball pitcher could give up 3 homeruns... etc. Both pitchers allow 3 hits, but one will earn 0 runs and the other one will earn 3.

Note: this only answers the first part of your question and has nothing to do with pitchers who perform better out of the stretch vs. wind-up.

citation needed (Steve Shasta), Sunday, 4 September 2011 04:47 (seven years ago) Permalink

xp to Morbz: I'm hunting around on fangraphs but I can't figure out where the batting + pitching WAR is -- do u have a link to it?

Mordy, Sunday, 4 September 2011 14:08 (seven years ago) Permalink

Nope! maybe I was wrong about FG -- I really don't look at theirs too much (I mistrust the defensive weights, which seem offkilter from what I see elsewhere).

incredibly middlebrow (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 4 September 2011 15:02 (seven years ago) Permalink

and thx Steve -- that makes a lot of sense. is there any book about sabremetrics that's as readable as moneyball but at least a little more informative than narrative?

Mordy, Monday, 5 September 2011 02:14 (seven years ago) Permalink

I'd recommend any and every Abstract, especially the Historical Abstract, but they're not really about sabermetrics, even though they're the beginning of sabermetrics. I think this biography of James provides sort of an informal history, though:

http://www.amazon.com/Mind-Bill-James-Complete-Outsider/dp/0385514646/ref=sr_1_14?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1315189250&sr=1-14

clemenza, Monday, 5 September 2011 02:21 (seven years ago) Permalink

I'm not sure there is a Sabermetrics 101 book, as the stats are changing all the time. I really liked Alan Schwarz's book about the history of stats, The Numbers Game.

incredibly middlebrow (Dr Morbius), Monday, 5 September 2011 02:22 (seven years ago) Permalink

Moneyball had a history too -- I mean more something that talks about a lot of the contemporary stats that are in use, and maybe tries to address some of the big questions (stuff like clutch, player value, calculating fielding value) in an informal way

Mordy, Monday, 5 September 2011 02:22 (seven years ago) Permalink

oh, that sounds interesting. i'll check it out xp

Mordy, Monday, 5 September 2011 02:22 (seven years ago) Permalink

The WAR thing about pitchers is interesting. I instinctively feel comapring a pitcher's hitting to the generic replacement hitter is unfair - they should realistically be compared to a generic replacement pitcher-hitter, so replacement level would be something like .130/.170/.180 or something. That way a great/terrible hitting pitcher still benefits/loses out, but not by comparison to bona fide hitters.

Mark C, Monday, 5 September 2011 10:42 (seven years ago) Permalink

I was thinking that the value added by having a hitter in that 9th spot must be huge if most teams just have a blackhole there but it occurred to me that a) even the best pitcher hitter only hits every 4-5 games and b) will only rarely hit throughout the entire game, so it's probably not as huge an impact as I was imagining.

Mordy, Monday, 5 September 2011 14:41 (seven years ago) Permalink

they should realistically be compared to a generic replacement pitcher-hitter

As a practical matter, I agree. I'm wondering if the sum of all the WARs on a team are supposed to add up to something that mirrors actual results--that if replacement value is deemed to be .450, then all the WARs, plus and minus, sum to however many wins the team is over .450 (=73 wins). I don't know, but that would explain why a pitcher's hitting can only be compared to a real hitter.

clemenza, Monday, 5 September 2011 15:20 (seven years ago) Permalink

I was wondering today if there's a stat that calculates ERA in light of the fact that the later into a game a pitcher goes, the more tired he gets. Something that could take poor managing out of the quantification - maybe something that would weight late innings pitched in a game more heavily than early innings (so that the first inning pitched w/out runs isn't worth the same as the eighth inning pitched w/out runs). I don't think ERA already does this... is there something that does?

Mordy, Tuesday, 6 September 2011 04:28 (seven years ago) Permalink

I believe there is a "close and late" stat. Not just late in the game, but with a further provision that the effort is of high-leverage. Let me poke around.

citation needed (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 6 September 2011 05:18 (seven years ago) Permalink

It looks like ESPN used to have it available as a "situational" statistic, but it's not showing up for 2011 data.

citation needed (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 6 September 2011 05:23 (seven years ago) Permalink

I'm not sure if this is what you mean, but Baseball Reference gives detailed inning-by-inning stats for every pitcher. They're not cumulative, though--you'd have to calculate that yourself. Verlander: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=verlaju01&year=2011&t=p. They also split a pitcher's line so you can see what he did in innings 1-3, 4-6, and 7-9. Verlander's ERA is 2.30 in 1-3, 2.60 in 4-6, and (smaller sample, but to me still amazing) 1.88 in 7-9. When they pull him out of a game in the 8th or 9th inning, they should bring him back in to close for himself.

clemenza, Tuesday, 6 September 2011 11:13 (seven years ago) Permalink

http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2011/09/06/is-war-the-new-rbi/

discus

NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 6 September 2011 21:10 (seven years ago) Permalink

I found myself agreeing with a lot of this. There are too many weird year to year fluctuations in many players' defensive WAR numbers, I don't trust those numbers very much.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 6 September 2011 21:13 (seven years ago) Permalink

dumb question i should look up but cant be bothered

whatever offensive element used by WAR - wOBA or something.. does it account for each situational at bat? with enough plate appearances it should all wash out but does it make a differentiation between going 3/3 w/ 2 BB against John Lackey and the same line against Justin Verlander?

shouldnt pitching WAR be cross-relational to batting WAR faced that day and vice versa?

sanskrit, Wednesday, 7 September 2011 02:15 (seven years ago) Permalink

Just the fact that there are 2 different computations of WAR makes it clear that it's not "finished." xp

Neyer's response:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/9/6/2408060/limits-of-war-zobrist-analysis

incredibly middlebrow (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 7 September 2011 02:18 (seven years ago) Permalink

Mordy, this is what I meant re WAR 2 weeks ago; look at the first and scond tables here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011-pitching-leaders.shtml

Halladay leads Lee in Pitching WAR (2nd list), but when their offensive and defensive contributions are added in (1st list), Halladay gets knocked down 0.1 and Lee is boosted 0.6.

incredibly middlebrow (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 18 September 2011 17:42 (seven years ago) Permalink

one year passes...

find your regional meeting on the map here (you don't have to be a member to attend).

http://sabr.org/sabrday

there are a few on Feb 2, like D.C. (which has Sean Forman and Tim Kurkjian).

saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 23 January 2013 16:20 (six years ago) Permalink

happy SABR Day, what a fine occasion for the board's two dumbest football fans to knock each other cold.

saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 26 January 2013 13:36 (six years ago) Permalink

five years pass...

once again, check your local here

https://sabr.org/sabrday

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 25 January 2019 20:21 (three weeks ago) Permalink


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