PECOTA is out

Alfonso Soriano:
.287/.349/.569, below average LF D, 39 HR, 31 SB

Poo-holes:
.331/.428/.617, good D, 39 HR

Barry Bonds:
.267/.441/.535 in 229 PA, brutal D, 12 HR

JD Drew:
.285/.392/.476 in 485 PA, above-average D, 15 HR

Daisuke Matsuzaka:
12-9 in 28G, 4.01 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Zito:
10-11, 28GS, 4.22 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

Randy Johnson:
7-6, 19GS, 3.97 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Brandon Webb
14-11, 3.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Jeremy Bonderman looks like the breakout pick:
14-9, 3.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

King Felix:
9-8, 23GS, 3.64 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

A Tale of Two Weavers:
9-9, 27GS, 4.44 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
12-9, 31GS, 3.86, 1.22

I mainly look at PECOTA to see the %age of breakout and decline. I feel that gives me a much better handle on the risk of banking on a player (for your favourite team, fantasy team, or whatever) than a precise, albeit median prediction of a 4.20 ERA in 2007.

PECOTA

waht

:-(

hitters, pitchers, notes

click on each tab.

NL All-Stars:
C: Brian McCann
1B: Pujols
2B: Utley
3B: Cabrera
SS: Bill Hall
RF: Brian Giles
CF: Carlos Beltran
LF: Soriano

AL All-Stars:
C: Mauer
1B: Teixeira
2B: Cano
3B: A-Rod
SS: Jeter
RF: Vlad
CF: Sizemore
LF: ManRam
DH: Hafner

NL MVP: Pujols, Cabrera, Wright
AL MVP: Hafner, Mauer, Ortiz

NL CY: Webb, Peavy, Pedro
AL CY: Johan, Halladay, Bonderman

NL Relief: Wagner, Lidge, Broxton
AL Relief: K-Rod, Nathan, BJ Ryan

Can someone tabulate the ROYs? I'm not sure who's eligible. I know that Tim Lincecum (SF SP) and Philip Hughes (NYY SP) are projecting high.

Yeah, but he's projected to hit a HR in 2007! You wouldn't want to miss this once-in-a-season event!

5-year projected values:
Barry Zito, $34.05mn
Alfonso Soriano, $61.3
Joe Mauer, $150.775
Poo-holes, $153.6
Johan Santana, $96.65
A-Rod, $83.0
Grady Sizemore, $118.075
Barry Bonds, $10.775

Top 5 2007 NL Second Basemen, by PECOTA Projected VORP

Player, Team, EqA, VORP

Chase Utley, PHI, .295, 49.0
Ray Durham, SFN, .295, 38.7
Eric Patterson, CHN, .280, 34.9
Brooks Conrad, HOU, .279, 29.2
Jeff Kent, LAN, .291, 28.2

Do the BP people expect that this guy is going to get significant playing time a 2B this year? He is not even on the radar here in Houston. Right now Biggio start at 2B regularly until he get his 3000th hit, then, according the conventional wisdom, he'll split time there with Mark Lorretta, who the Astros signed in the offseason to be a "super-utility" guy. The other future 2B on the Astros is Chris Burke, who will be playing CF this season now that Willy T has been traded.

So why does BP figure a PECOTA for Brooks Conrad and what makes them think he'll have the 4th best season in the NL at that position?

Basically I think the PECOTA projection means that if Brooks Conrad plays 2B (which he won't) and gets 516 AB (which he also won't) and hits as well as PECOTA projects he will (which given his #s in AAA isn't entirely unwarranted) he would be this valuable over the course of the year (in a league with weak 2B for the most.)

-- Steve Shasta (steveshast...), January 16th, 2007 3:14 PM. (Steve Shasta)

^^^^^OTM x 10000000000000000000000^^^^

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7749

Good point, the only Dodger who showing an above average defensive rating is Martin. NB: Not sure how wonx0red my PECOTA data is, I got it before they admitted it was janky.

Got revised again. Dodgers still have absurdly low runs allowed totals. But slip to 3rd in the NL West behind AZ and Colorado.

They really have to learn not to jump the gun trying to please the panting anticipation of roto maniacs.

seriously. they look like idiots.

I don't look at that stuff in any depth til the last week before the season.

yeah it's crazy to put it out so early given that rosters aren't even really set yet. who cares? but between this and the infamous no index book they've been sort of lame recently.

Kahrl boasted last week that the new annual will have an index.

i saw that; v. nearly started my own slow clap cause that's the least the incredible feat of having an index deserves

PECOTA is down and out

Is anyone other than Goldstein/Kahrl worth reading anymore? Or worth paying for the right to read (more accurately)?

pretty sure i'm gonna cancel when my sub is up in may

yeah, I like Perrotto's weekly reporting.

and the Laurila interviews.

yeah my subscription's up today and i don't think i'll be renewing, i basically only read goldstein at this point, plus the chats (are those subscription only?)

i can get by fine with chone for my projections, in fact i think it's been better than pecota the past couple years!

though admittedly less in-depth

I usually skip Goldstein! I find it hard to care about prospects til I can see em play.

maybe if your team had a real farm system...

Their prospects "play a lot of games."

this is an abomination, i refuse to ask for a ysi of it again next year

I usually skip Goldstein! I find it hard to care about prospects til I can see em play.

Me too.

You don't need to subscribe for the chats (which are normally good, as long as they stick to baseball and don't sidetrack into video games or music, i.e. read Marc Normandin at your own risk), and Steven Goldman's "You Can Look It Up" column is still great (if you're really into baseball history). Speaking of history, I guess Christina Kahrl will be doing the daily analysis column now that Sheehan is gone, but I'm sort of dreading that because when it comes to baseball writing, a bit of creative liscence is definitely a good thing but I can only tolerate so many references to Austrian aristocracy of the 1840's.

now that Sheehan is gone

OK, I've been busy nailing down a job this month. When did this happen?

end of the year--his contract was up i guess? did not know they were under contract. he just said they were going separate ways. i won't really miss him.

CHONE projected standings are out, for comparison...

http://baseballprojection.com/2010/standings2010.htm

looks mostly the same i guess

I dont see how the Dodgers give up fewest runs in mlb short of legendary pitching performances. The defense isnt that great. The only plus defenders I can think of are Kemp, Blake and Furcal (if you dont count throwing errors). Martins defense has been falling off, and Loney has a good reputation but its not backed up by numbers PECOTA would probably use..

― mayor jingleberries, Monday, February 1, 2010 2:17 PM (4 days ago) Bookmark

pecota's pretty bad at understanding defense and projecting rosters, which is why they couldnt anticipate (say) the mariners' run prevention being good enough to have them contending in the west

strange how CHONE predicts the Giants can go from Wild Card Contenders up until the last 8 days of the season to last place in the weak NL West with essentially the same offense (if Randy Winn & Ryan Garko = Mark DeRosa & Aubrey Huff which shouldn't be too difficult to replicate) and an improving pitching staff (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito + closer Wilson)...? Not saying they were fluky last year but they'll probably finish mid-pack in the NL, rather than in the bottom only 2 games ahead of the Nats/Pirates/Astros/Mets.

Ha, this has got to be Nate Silver:
http://www.sporcle.com/user/nrsilver/

supposedly pecota is out.. again.

supposedly it hates the shit out of my team. =( I dont subscribe so I cant see, but Im not sure I really want to.

who's your team again? (sorry)

how has pecota's accuracy been for the last couple years?

i remember the last time a blog did an analysis of all the stat forecast systems and PECOTA ranked below average.

a few years ago TSN (which is the Canadian's little espn) had done their own baseball forecasts - and i'd only looked at the J's stats but TSN was closer than PECOTA was.

my team is the dodgers. my purely speculative and non computer generated prediction is a team obp of .325 this year. or lower.

I just opened PECOTA, and really don't much care about individual player projections.

Not really sure why someone who wasn't a GM or fantasy ballplayer would.

I'm intrigued by the depth charts, though, which aren't out til next week.

When do the Fangraphs projections come out?

those fan projections are dogshit, they're being trolled this year pretty hard. heyward looks to be a top five OFer and tommy hanson will pitch better than cliff lee.

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?nav=messages&webtag=ml-braves&tid=149282

tommy hanson will pitch better than cliff lee

not impossible, imho!

ZIPS is the best one on fangraphs and it's not up there yet but i'm pretty sure they've all been calculated since they're rolling them out team by team at http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/newsblog/ (ignore the top post, that's a sticky from last year that hasn't been updated)

ok, i guess BP isn't all that bad.. Ferris! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12877

Is .325 OBP an unrealistic projection for the Dodgers, though? Your strength this season is likely to be your pitching staff, but even so you're likely to be 3rd favourite in the NL West, I'd have thought (ahead of two pretty poor teams).

has the mets @ 80 wins!

noted last week

behind some numbers

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19673

It's out, and projects 73 steals for Billy Hamilton

'tis out

http://www.sbnation.com/2017/2/8/14549012/dodgers-cardinals-pecota-projections

projects Angels at 80-82.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

Steamer really doesn't like Acuña Jr.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=25,d

vlad jr, 14th-most valuable position player of 2019, just ahead of aaron judge

go bucs

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings