PECOTA is out

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milo z (mlp), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 03:44 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Grady Sizemore:
.287/.364/.504, league average defense, 25 HR, 16 SB

Alfonso Soriano:
.287/.349/.569, below average LF D, 39 HR, 31 SB

Poo-holes:
.331/.428/.617, good D, 39 HR

Barry Bonds:
.267/.441/.535 in 229 PA, brutal D, 12 HR

JD Drew:
.285/.392/.476 in 485 PA, above-average D, 15 HR

milo z (mlp), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 04:04 (eleven years ago) Permalink

ysi?

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 04:36 (eleven years ago) Permalink

I'll find somewhere to YSI it tomorrow. For tonight, the popular stats for some pitchers

Daisuke Matsuzaka:
12-9 in 28G, 4.01 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Zito:
10-11, 28GS, 4.22 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

Randy Johnson:
7-6, 19GS, 3.97 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Brandon Webb
14-11, 3.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Jeremy Bonderman looks like the breakout pick:
14-9, 3.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

King Felix:
9-8, 23GS, 3.64 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

A Tale of Two Weavers:
9-9, 27GS, 4.44 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
12-9, 31GS, 3.86, 1.22

milo z (mlp), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 05:19 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Zito will miss a start for the first time since sophomore year of high school?

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 06:42 (eleven years ago) Permalink

lol @ zito vs screamweaver

bnw (bnw), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 06:47 (eleven years ago) Permalink

http://www.progressiveboink.com/dugout/pecota.JPG DID SOMEONE SAY MY NAME

polyphonic (polyphonic), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 07:16 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Zito's ERA goin up that much is weird.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 15:41 (eleven years ago) Permalink

PECOTA really really hates Zito.

Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 15:44 (eleven years ago) Permalink

PECOTA is always ultra-conservative with pitchers, isn't it?

I mainly look at PECOTA to see the %age of breakout and decline. I feel that gives me a much better handle on the risk of banking on a player (for your favourite team, fantasy team, or whatever) than a precise, albeit median prediction of a 4.20 ERA in 2007.

NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 16:52 (eleven years ago) Permalink

PECOTA is rather conservative with counting stats - I don't think they've got anyone winning more than 14.

milo z (mlp), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:10 (eleven years ago) Permalink

PECOTA is pretty conservative, period.

Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:12 (eleven years ago) Permalink

our old nemesis gygax! asked this last year about the forecast error:

PECOTA

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:18 (eleven years ago) Permalink

also, YSI?

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:19 (eleven years ago) Permalink

can this page be de-indexed?

milo z (mlp), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:38 (eleven years ago) Permalink

the thread has now been de-indexed

NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:40 (eleven years ago) Permalink

i love you milo z.

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:43 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Eric Gagne: 2.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.9 SO/9IP, 35 SV

waht

NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:50 (eleven years ago) Permalink

yes me love you long time
i promise not to argue with you about bullshit pop culture ideas for like five months

Haikunym (Haikunym), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:55 (eleven years ago) Permalink

the projected MLB leader in WHIP!

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:55 (eleven years ago) Permalink

No A-Rod? Or am I just missing him?

Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:58 (eleven years ago) Permalink

just pitchers i think?

Haikunym (Haikunym), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:59 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Oh I see!

Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:00 (eleven years ago) Permalink

I am dumb. It is different sheet.

Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:00 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Francisco Liriano:
31 GS, 10-7, 1.20 WHIP, 3.08 ERA, #10 in VORP for pitchers.

:-(

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:02 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Is he even supposed to be ready by April 1st?

Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:03 (eleven years ago) Permalink

he's actually a maybe for 2008?

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:04 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Gil Meche - $616,666.667 per win.

bnw (bnw), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:26 (eleven years ago) Permalink

THE BEST I EVER HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAD

David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:45 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Julio Franco's comparables: Satchel Paige, Strom Thurmond, George Blanda, Harriet the Galapagos Tortoise.

govern yourself accordingly (dayan), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:57 (eleven years ago) Permalink

I think their projections for Cory Lidle might need some finessing.

Thermo Thinwall (Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 20:04 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Jason Kendall's 5.8 VORP (#45 of MLB Catchers) will cost the A's $12M.

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 22:22 (eleven years ago) Permalink

$7M, I think, because they are getting $5M from Pittsburgh.

Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 22:38 (eleven years ago) Permalink

i thought that was last year only?

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 22:41 (eleven years ago) Permalink

PECOTA is incredibly optimistic with rookies, almost to a fault.

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 23:14 (eleven years ago) Permalink

also, i wish they did multi-position eligibility.

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 23:22 (eleven years ago) Permalink

i am dumm, how do i shot position players on this thing

Haikunym (Haikunym), Wednesday, 17 January 2007 00:02 (eleven years ago) Permalink

there are tabs at the bottom of the screen:

hitters, pitchers, notes

click on each tab.

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 17 January 2007 00:14 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Projected Awards:

NL All-Stars:
C: Brian McCann
1B: Pujols
2B: Utley
3B: Cabrera
SS: Bill Hall
RF: Brian Giles
CF: Carlos Beltran
LF: Soriano

AL All-Stars:
C: Mauer
1B: Teixeira
2B: Cano
3B: A-Rod
SS: Jeter
RF: Vlad
CF: Sizemore
LF: ManRam
DH: Hafner

NL MVP: Pujols, Cabrera, Wright
AL MVP: Hafner, Mauer, Ortiz

NL CY: Webb, Peavy, Pedro
AL CY: Johan, Halladay, Bonderman

NL Relief: Wagner, Lidge, Broxton
AL Relief: K-Rod, Nathan, BJ Ryan

Can someone tabulate the ROYs? I'm not sure who's eligible. I know that Tim Lincecum (SF SP) and Philip Hughes (NYY SP) are projecting high.

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 17 January 2007 01:58 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Uh, Pedro for NL CY? What year is this? And Giles, pfft.

bnw (bnw), Wednesday, 17 January 2007 04:05 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Jason Kendall's 5.8 VORP (#45 of MLB Catchers) will cost the A's $12M.

Yeah, but he's projected to hit a HR in 2007! You wouldn't want to miss this once-in-a-season event!

NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Wednesday, 17 January 2007 10:50 (eleven years ago) Permalink

PECOTA cards are out.

5-year projected values:
Barry Zito, $34.05mn
Alfonso Soriano, $61.3
Joe Mauer, $150.775
Poo-holes, $153.6
Johan Santana, $96.65
A-Rod, $83.0
Grady Sizemore, $118.075
Barry Bonds, $10.775

milo z (mlp), Sunday, 21 January 2007 16:46 (eleven years ago) Permalink

two weeks pass...
Admittedly, I know very little about this whole PECOTA thing, but as far as I can tell it's some kind of projection of a players performance for the upcoming season. What is really confusing me is the Stat of the Day that came in the BP Newsletter today:

Top 5 2007 NL Second Basemen, by PECOTA Projected VORP

Player, Team, EqA, VORP

Chase Utley, PHI, .295, 49.0
Ray Durham, SFN, .295, 38.7
Eric Patterson, CHN, .280, 34.9
Brooks Conrad, HOU, .279, 29.2
Jeff Kent, LAN, .291, 28.2


Do the BP people expect that this guy is going to get significant playing time a 2B this year? He is not even on the radar here in Houston. Right now Biggio start at 2B regularly until he get his 3000th hit, then, according the conventional wisdom, he'll split time there with Mark Lorretta, who the Astros signed in the offseason to be a "super-utility" guy. The other future 2B on the Astros is Chris Burke, who will be playing CF this season now that Willy T has been traded.

So why does BP figure a PECOTA for Brooks Conrad and what makes them think he'll have the 4th best season in the NL at that position?

boldbury (boldbury), Friday, 9 February 2007 21:25 (eleven years ago) Permalink

I think if you email whoever the chief PECOTA guy at BP is, he'll tell you.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 9 February 2007 21:48 (eleven years ago) Permalink

Nate Silver is the chief PECOTA guy.

Basically I think the PECOTA projection means that if Brooks Conrad plays 2B (which he won't) and gets 516 AB (which he also won't) and hits as well as PECOTA projects he will (which given his #s in AAA isn't entirely unwarranted) he would be this valuable over the course of the year (in a league with weak 2B for the most.)

Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 9 February 2007 22:31 (eleven years ago) Permalink

PECOTA is saying the Astros are dumb if they don't play him.

milo z (mlp), Friday, 9 February 2007 22:35 (eleven years ago) Permalink

PECOTA is incredibly optimistic with rookies, almost to a fault.

-- Steve Shasta (steveshast...), January 16th, 2007 3:14 PM. (Steve Shasta)

^^^^^OTM x 10000000000000000000000^^^^

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 10 February 2007 07:58 (eleven years ago) Permalink

case in point, look at Kevin Frandsen's projections last year vs:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7749

Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 10 February 2007 08:00 (eleven years ago) Permalink

What was his projection last year? His numbers look really good (but of course he only got 83 ABs.)

Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Saturday, 10 February 2007 08:07 (eleven years ago) Permalink

I dont see how the Dodgers give up fewest runs in mlb short of legendary pitching performances. The defense isnt that great. The only plus defenders I can think of are Kemp, Blake and Furcal (if you dont count throwing errors). Martins defense has been falling off, and Loney has a good reputation but its not backed up by numbers PECOTA would probably use..

mayor jingleberries, Monday, 1 February 2010 19:17 (eight years ago) Permalink

Good point, the only Dodger who showing an above average defensive rating is Martin. NB: Not sure how wonx0red my PECOTA data is, I got it before they admitted it was janky.

┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Monday, 1 February 2010 19:39 (eight years ago) Permalink

Got revised again. Dodgers still have absurdly low runs allowed totals. But slip to 3rd in the NL West behind AZ and Colorado.

mayor jingleberries, Monday, 1 February 2010 20:11 (eight years ago) Permalink

They really have to learn not to jump the gun trying to please the panting anticipation of roto maniacs.

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 20:17 (eight years ago) Permalink

seriously. they look like idiots.

call all destroyer, Monday, 1 February 2010 20:20 (eight years ago) Permalink

I don't look at that stuff in any depth til the last week before the season.

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 20:22 (eight years ago) Permalink

yeah it's crazy to put it out so early given that rosters aren't even really set yet. who cares? but between this and the infamous no index book they've been sort of lame recently.

call all destroyer, Monday, 1 February 2010 20:26 (eight years ago) Permalink

Kahrl boasted last week that the new annual will have an index.

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 20:33 (eight years ago) Permalink

i saw that; v. nearly started my own slow clap cause that's the least the incredible feat of having an index deserves

call all destroyer, Monday, 1 February 2010 20:34 (eight years ago) Permalink

PECOTA is down and out

ramon cora, Monday, 1 February 2010 20:36 (eight years ago) Permalink

Is anyone other than Goldstein/Kahrl worth reading anymore? Or worth paying for the right to read (more accurately)?

Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Monday, 1 February 2010 20:42 (eight years ago) Permalink

pretty sure i'm gonna cancel when my sub is up in may

call all destroyer, Monday, 1 February 2010 20:45 (eight years ago) Permalink

yeah, I like Perrotto's weekly reporting.

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 20:45 (eight years ago) Permalink

and the Laurila interviews.

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 20:46 (eight years ago) Permalink

yeah my subscription's up today and i don't think i'll be renewing, i basically only read goldstein at this point, plus the chats (are those subscription only?)

i can get by fine with chone for my projections, in fact i think it's been better than pecota the past couple years!

ciderpress, Monday, 1 February 2010 21:16 (eight years ago) Permalink

though admittedly less in-depth

ciderpress, Monday, 1 February 2010 21:19 (eight years ago) Permalink

I usually skip Goldstein! I find it hard to care about prospects til I can see em play.

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 21:26 (eight years ago) Permalink

maybe if your team had a real farm system...

ciderpress, Monday, 1 February 2010 21:44 (eight years ago) Permalink

Their prospects "play a lot of games."

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 21:52 (eight years ago) Permalink

this is an abomination, i refuse to ask for a ysi of it again next year

sanskrit, Monday, 1 February 2010 21:53 (eight years ago) Permalink

I usually skip Goldstein! I find it hard to care about prospects til I can see em play.

Me too.

You don't need to subscribe for the chats (which are normally good, as long as they stick to baseball and don't sidetrack into video games or music, i.e. read Marc Normandin at your own risk), and Steven Goldman's "You Can Look It Up" column is still great (if you're really into baseball history). Speaking of history, I guess Christina Kahrl will be doing the daily analysis column now that Sheehan is gone, but I'm sort of dreading that because when it comes to baseball writing, a bit of creative liscence is definitely a good thing but I can only tolerate so many references to Austrian aristocracy of the 1840's.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 2 February 2010 13:54 (eight years ago) Permalink

now that Sheehan is gone

OK, I've been busy nailing down a job this month. When did this happen?

Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 2 February 2010 15:04 (eight years ago) Permalink

end of the year--his contract was up i guess? did not know they were under contract. he just said they were going separate ways. i won't really miss him.

call all destroyer, Tuesday, 2 February 2010 15:07 (eight years ago) Permalink

CHONE projected standings are out, for comparison...

http://baseballprojection.com/2010/standings2010.htm

looks mostly the same i guess

ciderpress, Saturday, 6 February 2010 00:51 (eight years ago) Permalink

I dont see how the Dodgers give up fewest runs in mlb short of legendary pitching performances. The defense isnt that great. The only plus defenders I can think of are Kemp, Blake and Furcal (if you dont count throwing errors). Martins defense has been falling off, and Loney has a good reputation but its not backed up by numbers PECOTA would probably use..

― mayor jingleberries, Monday, February 1, 2010 2:17 PM (4 days ago) Bookmark

pecota's pretty bad at understanding defense and projecting rosters, which is why they couldnt anticipate (say) the mariners' run prevention being good enough to have them contending in the west

yakko warner (cankles), Saturday, 6 February 2010 00:54 (eight years ago) Permalink

strange how CHONE predicts the Giants can go from Wild Card Contenders up until the last 8 days of the season to last place in the weak NL West with essentially the same offense (if Randy Winn & Ryan Garko = Mark DeRosa & Aubrey Huff which shouldn't be too difficult to replicate) and an improving pitching staff (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito + closer Wilson)...? Not saying they were fluky last year but they'll probably finish mid-pack in the NL, rather than in the bottom only 2 games ahead of the Nats/Pirates/Astros/Mets.

┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 6 February 2010 01:12 (eight years ago) Permalink

two weeks pass...

Ha, this has got to be Nate Silver:
http://www.sporcle.com/user/nrsilver/

Lusty Mo Frazier (jaymc), Wednesday, 24 February 2010 19:24 (eight years ago) Permalink

eleven months pass...

supposedly pecota is out.. again.

supposedly it hates the shit out of my team. =( I dont subscribe so I cant see, but Im not sure I really want to.

strongly recommend. unless you're a bitch (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 7 February 2011 21:02 (seven years ago) Permalink

who's your team again? (sorry)

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 7 February 2011 21:08 (seven years ago) Permalink

how has pecota's accuracy been for the last couple years?

call all destroyer, Monday, 7 February 2011 21:12 (seven years ago) Permalink

i remember the last time a blog did an analysis of all the stat forecast systems and PECOTA ranked below average.

i love you but i have chosen snarkness (Steve Shasta), Monday, 7 February 2011 21:18 (seven years ago) Permalink

a few years ago TSN (which is the Canadian's little espn) had done their own baseball forecasts - and i'd only looked at the J's stats but TSN was closer than PECOTA was.

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 7 February 2011 21:26 (seven years ago) Permalink

my team is the dodgers. my purely speculative and non computer generated prediction is a team obp of .325 this year. or lower.

strongly recommend. unless you're a bitch (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 7 February 2011 23:16 (seven years ago) Permalink

I just opened PECOTA, and really don't much care about individual player projections.

kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 8 February 2011 06:55 (seven years ago) Permalink

Not really sure why someone who wasn't a GM or fantasy ballplayer would.

Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 8 February 2011 15:38 (seven years ago) Permalink

I'm intrigued by the depth charts, though, which aren't out til next week.

kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 8 February 2011 15:42 (seven years ago) Permalink

When do the Fangraphs projections come out?

i love you but i have chosen snarkness (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 8 February 2011 18:04 (seven years ago) Permalink

those fan projections are dogshit, they're being trolled this year pretty hard. heyward looks to be a top five OFer and tommy hanson will pitch better than cliff lee.

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?nav=messages&webtag=ml-braves&tid=149282

sanskrit, Tuesday, 8 February 2011 18:37 (seven years ago) Permalink

tommy hanson will pitch better than cliff lee

not impossible, imho!

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 8 February 2011 18:58 (seven years ago) Permalink

ZIPS is the best one on fangraphs and it's not up there yet but i'm pretty sure they've all been calculated since they're rolling them out team by team at http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/newsblog/ (ignore the top post, that's a sticky from last year that hasn't been updated)

ciderpress, Tuesday, 8 February 2011 19:14 (seven years ago) Permalink

ok, i guess BP isn't all that bad.. Ferris! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12877

sanskrit, Tuesday, 8 February 2011 21:56 (seven years ago) Permalink

Is .325 OBP an unrealistic projection for the Dodgers, though? Your strength this season is likely to be your pitching staff, but even so you're likely to be 3rd favourite in the NL West, I'd have thought (ahead of two pretty poor teams).

Mark C, Tuesday, 8 February 2011 22:42 (seven years ago) Permalink

two years pass...

has the mets @ 80 wins!

johnny crunch, Monday, 18 February 2013 23:55 (five years ago) Permalink

noted last week

saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 19 February 2013 02:06 (five years ago) Permalink

behind some numbers

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19673

Pope Rusty I (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 2 March 2013 14:32 (five years ago) Permalink

eleven months pass...

It's out, and projects 73 steals for Billy Hamilton

images of war violence and historical smoking (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 4 February 2014 12:41 (four years ago) Permalink

three years pass...
eleven months pass...

projects Angels at 80-82.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 7 February 2018 20:43 (ten months ago) Permalink

eight months pass...

vlad jr, 14th-most valuable position player of 2019, just ahead of aaron judge

mookieproof, Friday, 2 November 2018 20:15 (one month ago) Permalink


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