It is now time to fall in love with the King, Felix Hernandez

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SEATTLE'S FELIX HERNANDEZ LEFT THE GAME IN THE FIFTH INNING DUE TO A LOWER LEFT LEG INJURY.

Steve Shasta, Tuesday, 24 June 2008 00:27 (fifteen years ago) link

what an apocalyptically strange double twist that was.

Dr Morbius, Tuesday, 24 June 2008 14:49 (fifteen years ago) link

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d08gfZpnDA4

Steve Shasta, Tuesday, 24 June 2008 21:28 (fifteen years ago) link

four years pass...

hi dere

johnny crunch, Wednesday, 15 August 2012 22:03 (eleven years ago) link

someone tipped me off about this and jsut said "are you still at work? tune in to sea-tb now"

caught the last inning

best birthday ever

#1 Thwartstop Prospect (Will M.), Wednesday, 15 August 2012 22:07 (eleven years ago) link

HAPPY BIRTHDAY!

Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 15 August 2012 22:14 (eleven years ago) link

god damn i love this man

toandos, Wednesday, 15 August 2012 22:24 (eleven years ago) link

Bryan Armen Graham‏@BryanAGraham

Two perfect games in the same ballpark in the same season for the first time in the 143-year history of Major League Baseball.

toandos, Wednesday, 15 August 2012 22:25 (eleven years ago) link

"I've been working so hard to throw one and there it is -- for you guys."

Andy K, Wednesday, 15 August 2012 23:48 (eleven years ago) link

Dave Sims' scorecard, a thing of beauty:

http://twitter.com/TheDaveSimsShow/status/235908401199206400/photo/1/large

Andy K, Thursday, 16 August 2012 02:13 (eleven years ago) link

Off-the-wall theory from Posnanski about the proliferation of perfect games: that the "proliferation of sports and sports highlights on television" incentivizes/inspires people to do things like throw perfect games.

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.ca/2012/08/following-hornby.html#more

(Skip to part III.)

clemenza, Thursday, 16 August 2012 16:14 (eleven years ago) link

one year passes...

Felix vs. other young workhorses (2000 IP by age 28):

http://www.highheatstats.com/2014/06/king-felix-long-may-he-reign/#more-21847

Sutton/Blyleven/Roberts at the best-case end of the spectrum, the likes of Joe Coleman and Larry Dierker at the other.

clemenza, Tuesday, 3 June 2014 00:22 (nine years ago) link

one month passes...

He'll be pitching for a record next time: 14th consecutive start of 7+ innings and two or fewer runs. (Just tied Seaver.) Felix/Sale/Kershaw/Wainwright had a pretty decent weekend: 31 IP, 18 H, 6 BB, 32 K, 1 ER, 0.29 ERA.

clemenza, Tuesday, 29 July 2014 05:36 (nine years ago) link

He seems well on his way. 4.0 IP and no runs (and no hits, and no walks and jesus christ)

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 31 July 2014 00:07 (nine years ago) link

He got it, but boy it was close.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 31 July 2014 02:53 (nine years ago) link

I guess it's fitting that he'd do it in a game that he loses. (Obviously, not a knock on Felix.)

clemenza, Thursday, 31 July 2014 05:05 (nine years ago) link

Even with the record, and being second in the league in IP, he still doesn't have a CG this season (or last season, FWIW).

NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 31 July 2014 13:28 (nine years ago) link

the streak continues!

Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 12 August 2014 04:35 (nine years ago) link

maybe trout'll lose the MVP one more time

maybe he'll deserve to

linda cardellini (zachlyon), Tuesday, 12 August 2014 04:51 (nine years ago) link

whilst moving i found the newspaper clipping from when he threw his perfect game!

Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 12 August 2014 18:19 (nine years ago) link

SweetSpot linked to this piece this morning:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/felix-hernandez-and-the-al-mvp/

"Trying to find a common thread of logic and reason in how the BBWAA has treated starting pitchers in the MVP voting is basically futile."

I'm sure if Trout continues at something close to his present pace, he'll win this year.

clemenza, Friday, 15 August 2014 15:04 (nine years ago) link

7+ innings and two or fewer runs

cherrypicked nonsense

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Friday, 15 August 2014 15:19 (nine years ago) link

if their numbers stay about the same, Trout shd be MVP and Felix Cy -- any other result is trolling, esp assuming Angels make the postseason

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Friday, 15 August 2014 15:20 (nine years ago) link

I agree it's a bar that puts Felix in the best possible light--No Time basically made the same point above--but it wasn't cherry-picked for him; Cueto's streak was a story earlier in the year. I definitely disagree with nonsense. I'd like to see the winning percentage for teams where the starter goes at least seven and gives up two or fewer runs--extremely high, would be my guess. (.750 at least? I don't know.) If nothing else, it's a better definition of quality start than the current 6+/3-.

clemenza, Friday, 15 August 2014 15:28 (nine years ago) link

it does. and while i told a friend of mine that this streak is one of those things baseball fans/writers conjure up to have something to talk about – it doesn't make it any less impressive. what he's doing is not easy and it's certainly no fluke.

Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 15 August 2014 16:03 (nine years ago) link

Extremely small sample, but I checked the Indians for this year. I picked them as being a perfectly average team: 60-60, close to the league average in both runs scored and runs allowed. Here are their pitchers when meeting the 7+/2- threshold (I don't think Felix's streak differentiates between earned and unearned runs, so I simply stuck to runs allowed):

Kluber -- 9-4
Bauer -- 1-0
Masterson -- 5-0
Tomlin -- 1-0
McAllister -- 1-0
Salazar -- 0-1
------------------
Overall -- 17-5 (.773)

Conceding it's such a small sample, I wouldn't want to read too much into it. But it is close to what my guess was, and it jibes with what seems like common sense to me: taking your team into the 8th inning and only giving up either 0, 1, or 2 runs is extremely valuable--in terms of winning, and in terms of not wearing out your bullpen.

clemenza, Friday, 15 August 2014 17:26 (nine years ago) link

If the rest that such a starter gives the bullpen is so valuable, it might be interesting to throw out all such starts and compare team winning percentages in all their other games.

Cindy Operahouse (WilliamC), Friday, 15 August 2014 17:55 (nine years ago) link

Yeah, I'm probably making a conventional-wisdom assumption there. I wouldn't look at the team's winning pct. in other games--if it's .773 in the well-pitched starts, it'll be worse than normal in the rest of their games--but rather just the bullpen ERA or WHIP or something. The difference may in fact be minimal, or not exist at all.

clemenza, Friday, 15 August 2014 18:16 (nine years ago) link

Whatever you want to measure is fine by me, but it'd be interesting to see if there's a measurable secondary benefit to having a Felix in non-Felix starts.

Cindy Operahouse (WilliamC), Friday, 15 August 2014 18:32 (nine years ago) link

better wording: a measurable secondary benefit in non-Felix starts on teams that have a Felix.

Cindy Operahouse (WilliamC), Friday, 15 August 2014 18:33 (nine years ago) link

I'll see how ambitious I am...I might just look at the Mariners during Felix's streak: maybe their performance in non-Felix games during the streak vs. their performance the rest of the year. It might at least indicate whether the conventional wisdom applies in this one case.

clemenza, Friday, 15 August 2014 18:52 (nine years ago) link

kind of like how they measured the "dicky effect" on how hitters were worse the day after facing him? (i realize tho the cause and effect is different in this case)

Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 15 August 2014 18:55 (nine years ago) link

xp -- I wasn't asking you specifically to do the work! Just saying that that would be interesting data, whether the Felix's name happens to be Felix or Halladay or whatever.

Cindy Operahouse (WilliamC), Friday, 15 August 2014 19:00 (nine years ago) link

As opposed to the "dick effect," which measures the behaviour of people after listening to Rush Limbaugh all afternoon.

clemenza, Friday, 15 August 2014 19:03 (nine years ago) link

xp -- kinda, yeah.

What seems obvious is that the benefit of bullpen rest isn't best measured on days they're resting, but on days they're working.

Cindy Operahouse (WilliamC), Friday, 15 August 2014 19:04 (nine years ago) link

Nah, I like doing this stuff for my own curiosity. The main thing is, you've got to look into it. I said Felix helps his bullpen, when if fact I have no idea if that's true or not.

clemenza, Friday, 15 August 2014 19:04 (nine years ago) link

I like thinking about advanced metrics but am terrible at writing about them, just for the record.

Cindy Operahouse (WilliamC), Friday, 15 August 2014 19:06 (nine years ago) link

Another thing that seems self-evident to me is that if there is a benefit to having strong 7+/2- starters, it's going to show up in the long relief and setup guys. When Superstarter goes 7+, the closer is at least as likely, if not more likely, to make an appearance, so he's not getting any of that rest.

Cindy Operahouse (WilliamC), Friday, 15 August 2014 19:10 (nine years ago) link

True--the benefit, if it exists, would seem to go to your middle relievers.

I like something like this because it doesn't require advanced metrics at all. You just have to design the comparison in a way that makes sense, then you're working with basic measures like ERA or WHIP. WAR and Win Probability and such--the actual calculation of them--is way beyond what I can do. (Although I get the feeling WP is not difficult to calculate, just time-consuming.)

clemenza, Friday, 15 August 2014 19:16 (nine years ago) link

Watching the baseball game with my dad tonight, I had to teach him what a shortstop was. He knows absolutely nothing about baseball. He asked me what would be considered a good pitching performance and I told him that 7 innings with less than 2 runs is, rule of thumb, a pretty good pitching performance.

Van Horn Street, Saturday, 16 August 2014 04:25 (nine years ago) link

Cool story VHS.

Van Horn Street, Saturday, 16 August 2014 04:25 (nine years ago) link

I told him that 7 innings with less than 2 runs is, rule of thumb, a pretty good pitching performance.

Make sure to tell him you know a place where people take days debating the validity of such statements. (True of baseball fans in general.)

clemenza, Saturday, 16 August 2014 13:19 (nine years ago) link

and it ends.

Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 17 August 2014 01:11 (nine years ago) link

one month passes...

Felix, Kluber, Kluber, Felix?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/will-the-al-cy-young-voting-reflect-that-the-race-is-dead-even/

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 23 September 2014 14:55 (nine years ago) link

i knew Kluber was having a good season – but had no idea it was *that* good. where the hell did this season come from anyways?! his minor league numbers gave no real hint he was this type of pitcher.

Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 23 September 2014 15:33 (nine years ago) link

Sorry, fellow Jays fans; tonight I root for Felix.

clemenza, Tuesday, 23 September 2014 23:25 (nine years ago) link

i'm rooting for a 1-0 10th inning J's victory.

Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 23 September 2014 23:36 (nine years ago) link

oh. just turned on the game - J's already scored.

Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 23 September 2014 23:36 (nine years ago) link

Chris Mosch, BP:

The rare implosion by Hernandez resulted in not only the most runs he had allowed in a single inning this season, but also the most he had surrendered in a single game all year. The eight total earned runs Hernandez gave up tied a career worst for the right-hander and his ERA jumped from a league-leading 2.07 to 2.34.

Not only did Hernandez’s worst outing of the season drop the Mariners three games behind the Royals for a wild card slot with just five remaining, it also loosened his grasp on the Cy Young Award race, which he appeared to have all but wrapped up a month ago. After last night’s start, Corey Kluber holds a 2.39-to-2.60 FIP advantage while pitching just three fewer innings. Last night’s blowup by Hernandez also narrowed the gap in ERA between the two, despite Hernandez pitching in front of a much better defense and to a superior receiver behind the dish. Cleveland’s ace will have a final chance to sway the voters Saturday night against the Rays.

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 24 September 2014 12:27 (nine years ago) link


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