hall of fame, next vote...

Hall of Fame Ballot 2004

Bruce Sutter was the pitcher that brought back and popularized the split finger fastball, which considering how popular a pitch it has become in the past 25 years, it is something that he should get some credit.

"Boggs, for instance, is not a classic Hall of Famer, in my eyes, despite his 3,000 hits; he was a very, very good player, but not a dominant player."

Appearantly Buster forgets the mid 80s when Boggs career batting average was at .355 or so, he won 5 of 6 batting titles and his on base percentage was at a SABERMETRIC stoner high. He also won two of those batting titles by more than twenty points! After age 32, he only once hit over .330, but a bunch of players peak around that time in their career. Boggs average with runners on base and the bases loaded is also off the chart.

Oddly enough, I don't think Boggs was quite the same player after that whole scandal with Margo Adams broke. I think opposing teams quit putting chicken on the buffet when Boston was in town or something.

I think it would be interesting to know how many hits Boggs would have put up if he would have been brought up in 81, when he was 21 instead of 24. Boggs always claimed that he was just a good a hitter at 21, but since he played 1b was always behind Yaz in the depth chart and never got the chance to play in the bigs until he learned how to play 3b. He didn't get called up in 84 until they were wracked with injuries, then he hit over .400 for a month or so and stayed in the lineup from then on.

I grew up mostly watching NL baseball, but Boggs was one of my favorite players to follow and watch hit. Maybe not as fearful as some of the great power hitters of his day, but like Tony Gwynn, he was one of those hitters that seemed to dumbfound pitchers on how to get them out.

Earl OTM about Boggs, the guy was an offensive powerhouse.

It's the usual BS with guys like Sandberg -- 2B and 3B are underrepresented positions in the HoF because their offensive numbers aren't at the level of 1B or OF, they're not remembered for being "flashy" like SS, and they're not "on-the-field leaders" like C. Sandberg is a no-brainer.

Gossage should be in, I hear the arguments for Sutter that he wasn't great for as long as some other guys, but a) he was dominant for about the same length of time that Mo Rivera has been (and a lot of people consider him a future HoF player -- yeah, I know Mo's postseason performance is part of that, but still), and b) he INVENTED a pitch, which is a damned significant contribution to the game.

The Blyleven arguments boil down to the fact that he WAS great, but was pitching for bad teams. I think people are wising up to the idea that there are guys like Sutton who are in only because they pitched for good teams.

That season I remember seeing Jack Morris throw a no hitter on TV against the White Sox as it was the game of the week Saturday Afternoon on NBC. I can remember my dad was working in the garage and coming in every so often to check it out how the game was going, as he joked after the first inning or so wouldn't it be funny if he threw a no hitter.

But if that were the case, there'd be 80 or 90 members, except for what, 240 now?

By the established standard, Blyleven belongs. If you're "very good" for long enough (BB was in the top 10 in league Adjusted ERA 11 times from '71-89), that's worth 5-6 years of dominance (the peak vs career, Koufax vs Spahn argument). There was some research I read in the last year that showed Bert didn't suffer quite as much from his teammates' inadequacy as generally thought, but it wasn't enough for him to drop off my "ballot."

>The funny thing about Morris, as I recall, is that he always seemed to pitch just good enough to stay ahead.

"I know not seems..." I'll try to find a link for you, Thermo, but someone recently did a study of Morris's career in this regard, and it showed *no* special ability to pitch that way. He threw 1150 fewer innings than Blyleven and his career ERA was only 5% better than the league's (Bert 18%) -- that's not a negligible difference. Morris had a good career, but not a HOFer.

I'd vote for Gossage on greatness and longevity, Sutter on peak and pioneer role, close but unconvinced for Lee Smith. Rest of ballot: Boggs, Sandberg, and TRAMMELL, most deserving SS of that era below Ozzie. Dawson and Rice fall short.

It's sad that the Vets Committee process has obviously been fucked up to the point where they may never elect anyone, as I fear Ron Santo will die before his deserved induction.

I'm not sure that would be worst thing ever actually, but my problem with Blyleven is that during his time he was never really recognized as being one of the best in the game. He wasn't voted to All Star games, he didn't make Cy Young top 10s, he wasn't talked about as being a great pitcher. And I think that hurts him. NOW if the reason why none of those things occurred was that he toiled entirely in obscurity for shitty teams and if he'd been on the Dodgers, the Red Sox, the Yankees and the Reds for those years instead that there would be a complete about face and he'd be considered among the best pitchers of his era, well all I can say geez that's bad luck for Bert, but I think that's a hard argument to make conclusively.

MIR, here's a 4-year-old Neyer column on Blyleven... Alex, I think it's conclusive:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/2000/1213/943398.html

And he later wrote:

"Blyleven was, over the course of his career, a better pitcher than Ted Lyons or Early Wynn or Bob Lemon or Red Ruffing or Rube Waddell or Red Faber or Catfish Hunter or Lefty Gomez, all of whom are in the Hall of Fame... It's not Blyleven's fault that he generally pitched for unspectacular teams that played in hitter's parks. In fact, Blyleven pitched for 22 seasons, and in only four of those 22 seasons did Blyleven's home ballpark favor the pitcher, statistically..."

And to appeal to the butch old-timers: 242 complete games!

Four of 'em (third twice).

http://baseball-reference.com/b/blylebe01.shtml

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1815

It concludes that there is no evidence to suggest that he could.

That's the article I meant, MIR, thanks.

I think he's written a couple of other columns on Blyleven, maybe I can find them ...

Those are some mind-numbing stats!

This, and many other articles stating his HoF case are collected -- where else? -- on Blyleven's web page:

http://www.bertblyleven.com/hall_of_fame.shtml

xpost -- yeah, the Morris article is a bit of a numbers slog, but it's well done.

Enough, believe me. And I saw him compare him to two HOF pitchers, one of whom is IMO a mistake and the other who is basically in the Hall because he had a zillion strikeouts and a slew of no hitters. Compare him to Carlton or Seaver or Hunter or any of the really great pitchers from his era, if you want to make your point (that this guy is getting job) don't just claim he was "better than Don Sutton" cuz my response to that is so the fuck what.

That second ESPN article is much better btw and makes a pretty good case.

No, Bert is not Seaver or Carlton.

He played for fifteen years, and he had about four great years, four good years, and the rest were downright BAD. If he'd pitched for anyone other than the 70's A's and Yankees dynasties, there's no way he'd be anywhere near a serious HoF discussion.

See this is where I get the impression that cold-dispassionate analysis of the stats lies a little. For 5 years (71-75), Hunter was probably hands down the most feared pitcher in baseball. No he might not have been Koufax, but he was still by all accounts pretty amazing. Those five years count for more to me than 20 some odd years of just pretty good workmanlike pitching (I will admit that these breakdowns of Blyleven's stats are making a pretty case that he was better than that.) (I do have to wonder WHY if Bert was so great, he um didn't get snatched up by better teams? I mean that can't all be bad luck, right?)

Postseason Pitching

Year Round Tm Opp WLser G GS ERA W-L SV CG SHO IP H ER BB SO
+------------------+-----+--+--+------+-----+--+--+---+-----+---+---+---+---+
1970 ALCS MIN BAL L 1 0 0.00 0-0 0 0 0 2.0 2 0 0 2
1979 NLCS PIT CIN W 1 1 1.00 1-0 0 1 0 9.0 8 1 0 9
WS PIT BAL W 2 1 1.80 1-0 0 0 0 10.0 8 2 3 4
1987 ALCS MIN DET W 2 2 4.05 2-0 0 0 0 13.3 12 6 3 9
WS MIN STL W 2 2 2.77 1-1 0 0 0 13.0 13 4 2 12
+------------------+-----+--+--+------+-----+--+--+---+-----+---+---+---+---+
3 Lg Champ Series 2-1 4 3 2.59 3-0 0 1 0 24.3 22 7 3 20
2 World Series 2-0 4 3 2.35 2-1 0 0 0 23.0 21 6 5 16
5 Postseason Ser 4-1 8 6 2.47 5-1 0 1 0 47.3 43 13 8 36
+------------------+-----+--+--+------+-----+--+--+---+-----+---+---+---+---+

He didn't get many chances, but Blyleven pitched well in the playoffs and was a part of two World Series Champions.

Many of his best years came before free agency, so he didn't have much choice in the matter.

Even with free agency, it's only during the last ten years or so that all the best players end up on big-market winning teams at some point, since eventually those are the only teams that can afford them. If Jaret Wright can bounce around for a while, have one good season after a slew of crappy ones, and end up with a multi-year deal from a perennial contender, then Blyleven would have ended up playing for more winning teams too, if he was playing today.

Even so, every era has a few great players who toil away in relative obscurity. Look at Bobby Abreu, or even Carlos Delgado. If Delgado goes to the Mets, maybe in 20 years people will be saying "if he was so good, why did his teams always finish in third place?"

Alex, nobody's saying Hunter wasn't GOOD, just that Blyleven was better for MUCH longer, and that "good press" shouldn't be a measure of excellence. And I don't see Hunter '71-75 being "amazing" ... His most "impressive statistics" are wins (ie, having good teammates) and innings pitched (which blew out his arm, as MIR says). I think he got extra credit for the pennants and the sexy nicknames. And it's cute how you use high Cy Young finishes as relevant to Hunter, not relevant for Blyleven. (Also, I don't see Hunter's status as the first Big Splash free agent being relevant; see Marvin Miller's book for how clownishly Catfish handled that situation.)

The "cold-dispassionate analysis of the stats" is the most reliable evidence there is. Not "what you heard" (from Joe Morgan?). And it isn't so much that Blyleven toiled for bad teams (they were more often mediocre), but pitched in hitters' parks.

I hope it happens soon so that he lives to attend his own induction.

It's not lookin' good for Marv, MIR -- when the Vets voted last in '03, no one came close to getting 75% ... and of the 60 votes required for election, Miller got 35. He got three FEWER votes than Walter O'Malley -- or as we call him in Brooklyn, Satan.

Miller and other non-players are on the "composite" ballot. Here's this year's players' ballot:

http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/hofers_and_honorees/veterans/2005/2005_vc_candidates.htm

The only one I'm sold on is Santo, but Dick Allen and Tony Oliva have decent cases -- as does Curt Flood for courage and legal pioneering.

Mickey Lolich won't get in the Hall, but his pitching in the 68 World Series may be the best performance ever in the fall classic by a starter. The guy out pitched Bob Gibson in Game Seven on TWO days rest. ESPN Classic was showed that game a few months back and it was great. Harry Caray was doing the play by play.

While I don't know if he is good enough player to make the hall, Al Oliver had a pretty good career and never gets put on these kind of lists.

My general point is that "b...b...but he was a bit of an asshole" is a criticism that's used far too often despite being irrelevant most of the time. As long as the guy didn't compromise the game of baseball (Pete Rose being the most obvious example) then I couldn't care less if he was moody and didn't get along with everybody. If he could bring it on the field, then that's the most important thing.

(xpost)

Haha I need to learn to check baseballreference.com before I say stuff sometimes.

think you have to include barry larkin in this 'era'. he doesn't have jeter's counting stats, but was a better defender, won an mvp, and has pretty similar numbers overall

Oh yeah good point! I'm very AL-focused and never really think about Larkin, but it's definitely right to say that Jeter is the Barry Larkin of this year's class .

oh damn Larry Walker made it!

Jeter one shy of unanimous lmao

Really happy about Walker. Was anyone closer on their last year?

COMPLETE VOTING TOTALS

Derek Jeter: 396 votes (99.7 percent)

Larry Walker: 304 (76.6)

Curt Schilling: 278 (70.0

Roger Clemens: 242 (61.0)

Barry Bonds: 241 (60.7)

Omar Vizquel: 209 (52.6)

Scott Rolen: 140 (35.3)

Billy Wagner: 126 (31.7)

Gary Sheffield: 121 (30.5)

Todd Helton: 116 (29.2)

Manny Ramírez: 112 (28.2)

Jeff Kent 109: (27.5)

Andruw Jones: 77 (19.4)

Sammy Sosa: 55 (13.9)

Andy Pettitte: 45 (11.3)

Bobby Abreu: 22 (5.5)

Paul Konerko: 10 (2.5)

Jason Giambi: 6 (1.5)
Alfonso Soriano: 6 (1.5)

Eric Chávez: 2 (0.5)
Cliff Lee: 2 (0.5)

Adam Dunn: 1 (0.3)
Brad Penny: 1 (0.3)
Raúl Ibañez: 1 (0.3)
J.J. Putz: 1 (0.3)

Josh Beckett: 0
Heath Bell: 0
Chone Figgins: 0
Rafael Furcal: 0
Carlos Peña: 0
Brian Roberts: 0
José Valverde: 0

Schilling has to be a shoo-in for 2021--Hudson and Buehrle are the WAR leaders coming onto the ballot, and there are no non-PED guys close behind him. Maybe he could help his case by not talking for the next 12 months.

Paul Konerko: 10 (2.5)
Jason Giambi: 6 (1.5)
Alfonso Soriano: 6 (1.5)
Adam Dunn: 1 (0.3)

Certainly not advocating for any of these guys, but that's a lot of HR for 23 votes.

That's cute; Larry Walker says remember on old 45s "where you didn't know the song on the other side? ...I'm the B-side" to Jeter.

— Susan Slusser (@susanslusser) January 21, 2020

Rolen, Sheffield, and Wagner basically doubled last year's vote%. Helton came close to that. Jones had a good gain but was only up to 19%. Sosa, Pettitte, Kent, Ramirez not making the necessary moves quite yet. Vizquel is.

Not counting out Schilling, in terms of saying something incredibly stupid.

who fuckin voted for jj putz

Hopefully the one who didn’t vote for Jeter.

we've been willing Larry's election for a few years now, good job all around to the ILB team.

yeah we're on a roll with blyleven/rock/edgar

I guess Lou Whitaker takes his place next in that line (Schilling would have been if he weren't Curt Schilling).

Check that--I guess it's Rolen, Whitaker having moved on to the Veteran's Committee.

Whoever left Jeter off is my hero. Sending a gift basket if I ever get his name.

Walker is 2nd Canadian HOFer after Fergie Jenkins.

Whoever left Jeter off is a selfish prick who doesn’t take his job seriously

I’m sure he’ll get all the attention he’s so desperately hoping for

hahaha <3 Hadrian, you Bronx tool

went to check sardell's projections right after the totals came out (he was most accurate last year) and with a few exceptions he got ridiculously close

https://twitter.com/sarsdell/status/121975042238827724

fuckin twitter

here

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EO1si0SX4AE4aBp.jpg

Walker is 2nd Canadian HOFer after Fergie Jenkins.
― jaymc

And first to have played for a Canadian team.

Remember there were three people who didn’t vote for Griffey. I woulda bet my life savings that he’d be the first unanimous one.

jeter was my fav athlete growing up and I think coming one vote short is pretty funny

iirc b-ref's sean forman said he was not voting for jeter for strategic reasons -- he'd have done so had he not been limited to 10. dunno if he changed his mind, but whatever, it's fine

Jetes was never my favorite Yankee and I guess it is kind of funny but also come on

What a moment for Larry Walker 🇨🇦❤️ pic.twitter.com/o8tW3SH2ea

— Offside (@OffsideDH) January 22, 2020

I love how the guy begins "I'm calling to let you know that you did not..."--cruel!

iirc b-ref's sean forman said he was not voting for jeter for strategic reasons -- he'd have done so had he not been limited to 10. dunno if he changed his mind, but whatever, it's fine

― mookieproof, Tuesday, January 21, 2020 10:19 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

forman's ballot was public, he voted for him

Ok here it is.

Decided I couldn’t take the heat dropping Jeter. #notproud

Decided to add Sosa, 8th year and needs votes.

10 vote limit casualties: schilling and Sheffield maybe in future.

This was difficult.

My process: https://t.co/depiSNfnpx

CC: @NotMrTibbs pic.twitter.com/UOwnXEkfeo

— Sean Forman (@sean_forman) December 30, 2019

Really happy for Walker. He was polling at 10% six years ago and trending downward. The first few ballots he appeared on were the most crowded ones ever, but still, it's an amazing comeback.

two years from now it's gonna be a wild one: last year on the ballot for Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa (would be for Schilling but i assume enough voters will be holding their noses and checking his name next year and he'll get in). plus the first year on the ballot for A-Rod and Ortiz.

three years from now it'll be Kent's last year and Beltran's first.

four years: Beltre, Mauer, Utley debut. Sheffield's last.

five years: Ichiro, Sabathia...?

i think one thing (but not the only thing) that really hammers Sheffield's chances is the fact that he was seen as a bit of a nomad or maybe less generously a mercenary. he played for eight teams and didn't last more than iirc five w/any of them, and therefore doesn't have the same narrative as he would have if he'd stuck with one team (or even 2-3 teams). but everywhere the guy went, from his batting title season w/San Diego to the first half of his first season w/Detroit, he hit the shit out of the ball.

somehow i thought we were still waiting for chipper to become eligible : /

time keeps on slippin

Jay--Saw Ted Simmons over the weekend. He repeatedly and effusively thanked the analytics community for, as he said, "bringing him back to life" as a Hall of Fame candidate. Trying to make sure everybody hears that.

— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) January 22, 2020

here are the (non-PED tainted, non-gambling*) guys on the outside looking in, showing their all-time rank by bWAR.

Some of these guys will never become the next cause célèbre, obviously. i know Pettitte and Brown had some smoke around them w/r/t PED use but i think for the former it's never come into play since it was a murkier situation than others iirc and he doesn't seem like a dick, he's just a guy who seems to fall short. Brown was amazing but also does in fact seem like a dick which is probably why he didn't even get to 5%.

65. Curt Schilling (20) 79.5
72. Jim McCormick (10) 76.2
74. Bill Dahlen (21) 75.4
78. Lou Whitaker (19) 75.1
92. Bobby Grich (17) 71.1
100. Scott Rolen (17) 70.2
106. Rick Reuschel (19) 69.5
118. Kenny Lofton (17) 68.3
120. Graig Nettles (22) 68.0
124. Kevin Brown (19) 67.8
126. Dwight Evans (20) 67.1
130. Tony Mullane (13) 66.5
133. Buddy Bell (18) 66.3
136. Luis Tiant (19) 66.0
137. Willie Randolph (18) 65.9
143. Reggie Smith (17) 64.6
156. Ken Boyer (15) 62.8
Andruw Jones (17) 62.8
161. David Cone (17) 62.3
167. Jack Glasscock (17) 61.6
168. Sal Bando (16) 61.5
Tommy John (26) 61.5
172. Todd Helton (17) 61.2
173. Tommy Bond (10) 60.9
175. Charlie Buffinton (11) 60.7
Willie Davis (18) 60.7
Wes Ferrell (15) 60.7
180. Jim Edmonds (17) 60.4
Keith Hernandez (17) 60.4
185. Andy Pettitte (18) 60.2
189. Bobby Abreu (18) 60.0

*maybe some of the old timers were gamblers? idk. there are some 19th century cats on this list.

Reuschel is a dude who should get a Blyleven-esque second look, he was an incredible pitcher who didn't wind up on an actual good team for a full season until he was 40 years old, if i'm researching correctly. he was one of those supremely unathletic-looking soft tossers who didn't inspire much fear but who got the job done. a better pitcher than Jack Morris, but one with a more tepid mustache and worse teams behind him.

Lofton should be in the HOF, i think. he's another guy whose traveling ways cost him. he did spend 10 years w/Cleveland but he also played for ten other teams, playing no more than 129 games for any one of them (that was w/the Dodgers in 2006). and even w/Cleveland it wasn't ten consecutive seasons, he had a season in Atlanta bookended by 5 and 4 seasons with CLE, and then finished his career w/52 games with them in 2007.

Grich was one of the (if not the very first) early preoccupations of Bill James; I do think he'll hit right with the Veteran's Committee one year. I think Whitaker will get in for sure, Lofton and Evans probably, Reuschel maybe. I don't think Luis Tiant or David Cone will, although I'd personally put them in ahead of Reuschel. (Tiant's maybe my favourite guy on the whole list, but then I'm one of those simpletons who's swayed by nostalgia.)

Sal Bando and Buddy Bell and Graig Nettles (and Boyer, I suppose) are a category unto themselves; maybe Rolen will open the door for at least one of them.

My own sense is that Grich/Whitaker/Evans/Tiant (maybe).

Cone was a great pitcher who had some poor luck by peaking in KC, and during the strike, which cost him 200+ wins. Plus an injury a bit after that. Regardless he likely would’ve suffered the same fate as Brown (a pretty similar pitcher in some respects tho Brown was better). Though he’d also have cleared the slightly more *~~magical~~* 70+ bwar threshold with a bit more time.

Those third basemen are to an extent the poor man’s Santo, who is the old man’s Rolen.

i know Pettitte and Brown had some smoke around them w/r/t PED use

According to pages 215-217 of the Mitchell Report, both of these guys were turned in by Kirk Radomski with validated purchasing receipts and signature tracking shipments of vast quantities of HGH.

...but to your point, maybe they just bought it to collect it or save it for a rainy day or what have you.

(nevermind, Randomski testified under oath he injected Pettite with HGH)

Oh yeah I guess Kirk snitched on those guys too I remembered some Pettitte thing with “injury recovery” used as an excuse, and he was very “ashamed” iirc. Obviously never did it before that, very out of character, etc.

I think Cone came out about even for the strike year in terms of his HOF résumé : you're right, it may have cost him 200 wins (although he would've needed 22 on the year), but he eked out a Cy Young that he could very well have lost to Johnson or Key or Mussina if the season had played out.

guys andy pettitte was just trying to get healthy so he could help the team

For just those two days out of his whole entire life.

from that list, grich and whittaker should already be in

i will fight for lofton and evans

i will root for reuschel, the only decent thing about some truly horrible mid-80s pirates teams

It would have been great if Big Daddy's comeback started in Chicago in '84, they could have used him and with a good Reuschel in the rotation, they might have won it all.

The baseball play I would have loved to have seen and I guess there is no video of is that Jim Abbott hit a triple off Big Daddy in spring training.

Reuschel looked like the ringer pitcher on any Indiana slow pitch softball team in the 80s. For authenticity, you know they are good if they are wearing work boots on the field.