HOT STOVE LEAGUE 2K4/2K5

I tried to find a nice & tidy free-agent list this morning, but came up w/ bumpkiss - anyone got any leads?

- Beltran to the Cubs
- Pedro to the Angels
- Millwood to the Tigers
- Pavano to the Yankees
- Lowe to Baltimore

I wouldn't mind seeing Renteria in Boston next year, but I can't see the Cardinals letting him slip away. Also, OC might be a more cost-effective option, depending on his tab. Honestly, I can see the Sox resigning all their freebies if their asking prices aren't too out of whack. Pedro for $12-14 is OK; Pedro for $15+ is untennable. Same for Lowe at more than $8. & I imagine Varitek will want a long-term deal (3-4 years), which might be a hard sell when you're a 33 (34?) year-old catcher.

On my league message board the question was asked as to how to fix the Sox. The phrasing of the question and my answer:

"Ok, if you were the Red Sox GM, what would you do with the impending free agency, and upcoming crop of free agents? Take into consideration the money it would cost to sign/resign each player, who you have on your bench, and what you'd do to address any needs. Who do you resign from this group, if any? Pedro, Nomar, Varitek, Lowe and Ortiz.

What would you do with total control of the Red Sox? And just to make it interesting, let's say you have a cap of $120 M. So, you can't just say, "I'd sign everyone". By my estimates, it would take about $60-$65 M to resign all of those players. You don't want half your payroll to go to 5 guys, do you? You can also include things like trades. For example, "I'd trade Damon to the Mariners for R.Soriano" or some crap like that. Here is a list of the potential 2005 FA's.

2005 Free Agents:

Pitchers:

Matt Clement, ChC, RHP, 31*
Ryan Dempster, Cin., RHP, 28*
Odalis Perez, L.A., LHP, 27*
Pedro Martinez, Bos., RHP, 34*
Derek Lowe, Bos., RHP, 31*
Matt Morris, St. L., RHP, 31*
Kris Benson, Pit., RHP, 30*
Brad Radke, Min., RHP, 32*
Freddy Garcia, Sea., RHP, 29*
Felix Rodriguez, S.F., RHP, 31*
Troy Percival, Ana., RHP, 36*
Robb Nen, S.F., RHP, 35*

Infield:
Jason Varitek, Bos., C, 33*
Paul Konerko, ChW, 1B, 29*
Richie Sexson, Mil., 1B, 30*
Carlos Delgado, Tor., 1B-DH, 32*
Jose Vidro, Mon., 2B, 31*
Corey Koskie, Min., 3B, 32*
Adrian Beltre, L.A., 3B, 26*
Aaron Boone, FA., 3B, 32*
Troy Glaus, Ana., 3B, 28*
Cristian Guzman, Min., SS, 27*
Orlando Cabrera, Mon., SS, 30*
Nomar Garciaparra, Bos., SS, 32*

Outfield:

Carlos Beltran, K.C., OF, 28*
Magglio Ordonez, ChW, OF, 31*

*Opening day age 2005

Ok, that's my question. I'll post my answer later. I'm still thinking about my answer. Be realistic with any trades too. I'm really interested in everyone's answer."

MY ANSWER:

First off I would resign Varitek, but there's no way I would agree to the $14 million his agent is asking for (based on the Pudge signing). Either string him out with a back-weighted long-term deal and hope he retires before it hits or offer him a one-year $10 million dollar deal. Pedro clearly isn't worth the money any longer; let the Angels overpay for him. Nomar is a lost cause and isn't worth it anyway. Ortiz would be worth signing based on the price. $5 million, yes. $10 million? No. Also, Ortiz struggles mightily against lefties – something definitely worth considering. Lowe is worth it for $8 million a year or less. Based on these factors, I would grab Lowe for $7 million and Varitek for a four or five year deal at $9 a year. That leaves about $40 million to play with.

First up, sign Ordonez. This will take Lowe money to do so. With Ordonez on board, move Manny to the DH spot. That leaves us down to, say, $30 million. It looks like Cabrera is having a down year, so hopefully he can be had for $6 million, considering position scarcity. To shore up the pitching, sign Odalis Perez to be your second or third starting pitcher ($5 million, I would think) and Kris Benson to follow him ($3 or $4 million). Vidro will be overpriced in the FA market, so perhaps a deal could be worked out to acquire both a 2B and a CF (Damon costs too much). Perhaps Damon and Williamson for Cameron and Reyes? I dunno if the Mets would go for that, actually. What about Damon and Williamson to the Brewers for Spivey (a capable hitter) and Podesnik (a good defensive CF and a hustler, which the Boston fans should love). I would guess that the Brewers would go for that. This should drop payroll by at least $4 or $5 million. Use that extra cash to pick up a quality firstbaseman – preferably Sexson, though he could be overpriced. Konerko is certainly someone worth considering. We'll say they sign Konerko for $7 million. Based on my monkey math, that should leave the Sox about $15 million under the cap. With that money, perhaps they could offer Pedro a one-year deal, or even bring back Ortiz to DH (allowing for the inevitable Trot Nixon injury). That would leave the Sox lineup as:

OF Podesnik
3B Mueller
DH Manny/Ortiz
OF Ordonez
1B Konerko
OF Nixon/Manny
C Varitek
SS Cabrera
2B Spivey

Rotation:
Schilling
Lowe
Wakefield
Perez
Benson

Plus there's still the leverage of having Kim to swap for utility/bench help. And there's still money saved.

Thoughts?

"Pedro clearly isn't worth the money any longer; let the Angels overpay for him"

"It looks like Cabrera is having a down year, so hopefully he can be had for $6 million, considering position scarcity."

BOW TO ME PEOPLES

I think you're dreaming if you don't foresee both these guys involved in some major bidding.

Or they could just, y'know, shitcan the manager, get someone in the position that's not an asshat, and move on.

Any word from sportsfolks re: Nomar staying in ChiTown?

Nen wants a minor league contract with SF.

After what he did in the post season and considering his popularity, do you really think the Red Sox would get rid of Johnny Damon? That seems pretty remote to me. I think they will probably try to keep Lowe, Varitek and Cabrera but let Pedro move on.

Does any of these starters really excite any of you?
Matt Morris, St. L., RHP, 31*
Kris Benson, Pit., RHP, 30*
Brad Radke, Min., RHP, 32*
Freddy Garcia, Sea., RHP, 29*

They are competent and all, but not one of them are anything like Pedro, even as he is now. Benson could turn into something else, but he hasn't so far. Keep in mind, Pedro is still younger than Clemens was when he left Boston. Morris, Radke and Garcia haven't won the big games in the playoffs, so why should a moneybag team, ready to win it all drop big cash on these guys? Better to just get more hitting and build up the bullpen, unless you are a team with little starting pitching at all (like the O's).

This is like a lesser version of the types of trades my dad & his friend would pull out of their ass during previous Red Sox seasons - "Yeah, maybe we can trade Otis Nixon & Wakefield & Bill Hasselmann for Brian Giles." Actually, that's a bad example - their prospective trades would involve shipping every crap sack of meat on the roster for the other team's best player.

Granted, Earl, if Cam Bonifay were the GM, you might actually get your wish.

It would have to be a short-term deal I think. He seems to like the town a lot, and the fans like him, but I'm not sure how keen mgmt is on his health. If Nomar wants three years or more, he'll probably head west.

As for Sammy, his one year option that's somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 mil becomes guaranteed if he gets traded. So it's like a $35 mil proposition to trade him. I can't think of any possible way the Cubs could both get Beltran and cut Sammy loose. But Hendry's pulled improbable deals off before I guess.

*ahem* 25-year-old *ahem* Adrian Beltre had ankle surgery to remove to bone spurs and filed for free agency.

Bill Buckner:
``Personally, on my end of it, I'm just a little disappointed with the whole thing. This whole thing about being forgiven and clearing my name, you know, I mean ... cleared from what? What did I do wrong? It's almost like being in prison for 30 years and then they come up with a DNA test to prove that you weren't guilty.

``I've gone through a lot of, what I feel, undeserved bad situations for myself and my family over a long period of time, and for someone to come up to me and say, 'Hey, you're forgiven,' I mean, it just kind of brings a really bad taste in my mouth.''

The Astros exercised Craig Biggio's option but declined Jeff Kent's.

Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado both filed free agency.

The Cubs declined options on Alou and Grudz.

Funny how Giants brass waits until after Barry retires. Cheap bastards.

The thing that is bad about liking the Cincinnatti Reds is that you know they are not going to do jack squat in the off season to improve anything. The only way they get new talent is by shipping off expensive talent and for the past few years they get the short end of the deal. The Reds can hit like Clubber Lang, but they pitch like Paul Lynne. They are also the most fragile team in baseball, I can't think of any other team that loses players to the DL more than the Reds. It must be some proximity effect from Griffey.

The team I wonder what they will do is Cleveland. They used to be big spenders back in the day and they have a young lineup ready for primetime. They need to build up their bullpen and get another starter.

An outfield of Bonds, Grissom and Alou would add up to a combined 119 years old and would qualify for the all-medicare team. I think the Giants are trying to move Grissom to right and attract a legitimate CF.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets

Nooooo!

At least the loony Wally Backman-for-manager campaign is history.

i had no idea minaya was w/ the mets!?!?

yikes.

George Foster's problem was that he was OLD by the time the Mets signed him. Don't forget, he was released in mid-'86 after complaining that he lost playing time to racism (much of which went to... Kevin Mitchell and Mookie Wilson).

TEN!

YEARS!

Looks like Beltran's agent is trying to get a contract in total cash on in the A-Rod realm, which no matter how good Carlos may be is crazy thinking. Beltran is a great all around player and probably has not yet peaked, but he hasn't hit like A-Rod did in Seattle.

After such a big injury, I would figure that Sexton might go to a team on a short one year deal, just to prove that he is ok.

The team that I am really curious to see what moves the make are the Cleveland Indians. Their lineup is definitely ready to make a run at winning the central, but they need a whole lot of help in the bullpen and probably one or two starting pitchers. Are their finances improved? They used to be a money bags team and then started from scratch in rebuilding.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=fanball-redsoxoffermadetoped&prov=fanball&type=lgns

Come to think of it, is Pedro the first guy who signed his last contract during the Inflated Contract Era to come up for free agency? That is, is he the first of the guys who signed multi-year deals at $15-$20mil/year who will have to take a BIG paycut because of the subsequent market correction?

Delgado is in the same boat right now.

apparently a sosa for shawn green deal is in the works and the chisox have offered konerko, jon garland and prospects for the large unit.

If the Sox have offered Konerko and Garland for the Unit, no matter how good the prospects are the DBacks should bite. Konerko could be in the prime of his career next season and Garland might be the kind of pitcher that does better in the NL and he will be only 25 next season. The Unit will be 41 next season and he might be just as good or his body could fall apart in May, you never know on these things.

Getting rid of Konerko for the Sox is quite a gamble. If Magglio leaves and Thomas is still hurt next season, that team will have a serious hole in the middle of the lineup. Carlos Lee would really have to deliver and other people would have to step up.

Mets gave up their #4 prospect for Mink. Still, I didn't realize DM's career OBP is still .363.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primer/blogpen_discussion/25915/

PUDGE SIGNED A ONE-YEAR DEAL! They backloaded a one-year contract? OMG WTF ROFFLE

maybe arthur anderson doe stheir acocunting?

...thanks, i'll be here all night folks.

"Manny Ramirez was on our flight from Santiago, DR, to Miami. I didn't go up to him in the airport, but he seemed totally accessible and was really friendly to everyone who came up to him.

Didn't catch any games while I was there, but I saw parts on TV. Tejada was killing everyone. Eric Byrnes looked gimpy and uncoordinated."

The Pirates owner seems to think there is some shady accounting going down.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-pirates-mcclatchy-salarycap&prov=ap&type=lgns

just getting this now, but man, potato-head gedman is homegrown man! he's from worcester! so, y'know, he was probably in the area, working for the boylston dpw or something.

Haha, shades of "Why re-sign Maddux when we can get Jose Guzman and a carload of assholes?" with this "Beltran's too expensive" business.

intriguing talk from Brewers insiders: Carlos Lee played 3b in the minors and is apparently really good there

problem, once again: pitching. Sheets, then whoever else shows up; concern about lack of Kolb, but we think we got it covered with Mikey Adams

If Lee played 3rd, who'd play LF? Or would they flip Mr. Favre from RF to LF to (hopefully) keep him from getting hurt? (Not that such
a move would automatically keep the guy safe.)

Also, the way Kolb was throwing (& not K-ing guys when throwing), it's better the Brewers cut bait when they did. Do they still have Luis Vizcaino? - he was 10 types of buttass last year (was he hurt?), but I imagine he could do just fine as a late-inning guy (presuming his case of the suckage isn't chronic).

& who is this Brady Clark character?

Brady Clark is an enigma wrapped in a riddle wrapped in a velvet glove. He's an underrated outfielder, but his bat is STREAKY; he hits a fair amount of game-winners though. He platooned much of last year -- hell, his whole career, so we'll see. He can run a little, too; he's not as speedy as Podsednik, but who is?

*This according to Rob Neyer AND Bill James.**

**I may have made this up.

*HI DERE

or maybe "harmacy," not sure, must consult Robo-Uecker

EWWWW.

The Blue Jays are changing the name of Skydome to the "Rogers Centre"

(Rogers = Ted Rogers, whose conglomerate owns the team and, as of a few months ago, the stadium as well)

The Trigger Cafe would ROCK!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1985108

Fare ye well, my sliding-catching friend...

How bizarre. Never heard of anything like that. And Boras accepted it?? I guess it's great for Maggs if he does in fact stay healthy. We shall see.

WTF indeed! I'm not gonna call it that. It's a dome, not a centre. Fuck you Rogers, either put more money into the team or lower the price of cable!

It was almost a point of pride for me, that our stadium hadn't succumb to the corporate branding of anything you could fit a logo onto. Worst offseason ever.

Vernon Wells
Alexis Rios (though he's still unproven)
Josh Phelps (jury's still out, of course)
Kelvim Escobar (?)

... and a lot more semi-notable folks than what I'm coming up with. Granted, none of those guys are Junior Felix, but who the hell is?

It's Bo b/c he plays both baseball and football, I take it. He's a Bermanism waiting to happen.

Also, if you REALLY want to push things, there's that would-be phenom SS currently on the Reds that's supposedly "washed up" at the ripe old age of 25. (Is his name Felipe Lopez?)

Rich Aurilia?

Ha ha! Lopez, forgot about him. If we're going to be reaching into the bargan bin why not mention Mr. Cesar Izturis!

I guess now my question is (re: the Jays) - who were their shit-hot prospects from the 80s & 90s?

70s / 80s: (I'm really not sure on any of these)
Tony Fernandez
Tom Henke
Dave Steib
Jesse Barfield (?)
Kelly Gruber (woo!)
Garth Iorg (?)

90s / early 00s:
Carlos Delgado
Shannon Stewart
Jeff Kent
Pat Hentgen (for a brief while)
Mike Timlin
Ed Sprague (woo woo!)

From what I can recall, the meat of their championship teams (Robbie Alomar / Joe Carter / Devon White / David Cone) (& Mitch Williams -ha!) came from other organizations.

Pat Borders
David Wells
Mark Whiten
George Bell (drafted by Phillies, came up as a Blue Jay)
Fred McGriff (drafted by Yanks, came up as a Blue Jay)
Juan Guzman (drafted by Dodgers, came up as a Blue Jay)
Jimmy Key
Todd Stottlemyre
John Olerud (came pretty much straight out of college)

Add in some of the players listed above and that is pretty good for a 8 to 10 year run (like 85 to 92) of player development.

as for 90s & aughts, don't forget...jay gibbons!

okay, you can forget him.

STRICKEN FROM THE RECORD (if we're talking strictly about players drafted by the Jays, which I was). Not that I'm knocking the front office's knack for recognizing talented players in other orgs and/or fleecing the Yankee farm system (which, in the '80s, was required by the Collective Bargaining Agreement).

But, yeah, I think the Jays' farm system now is comparable to what it was - the only problem is the guys they acquire from outside of their system (either through trade or through free-agent signage). And the lack of developed starting pitchers. And having to play in a division w/ the two most lucrative franchises in all of baseball, if not all of American professional sports. And Skydome doing double duty as a vacant lot between April & October. And the team's inability to stick w/ a uniform design & logo for more than 2 years before coming up w/ a worse design. Otherwise, thumbs up, Canada!

I would still give the Jays credit for getting that talent out of the other teams minor leagues as there are bunches of players traded around that never do much at all. Whatever they were doing in late 80s early 90s worked, they were a perennial contender and won two championships. Some teams seem to develop one or two positions pretty well but the Jays came up with players all over the diamond.

bo was the chicago sun-times high school athlete of the year a few years ago, he seems pumped at the opportunity to play for the cubs.

Pitchers and Catchers report today for about 1/3 of MLB (Astros, Braves, Devil Rays, Giants, Indians, Marlins, Phillies, Pirates, Redsox, Rockies and Tigers).