Ladies and gentleman, I give you your MVP runnerup: Adrian Beltre

Because it’s a beautiful day, and why would I go outside?

Pete Rose – 37, more-or-less prime
Hank Aaron – 36, playing well
Stan Musial – 37, last good season
Derek Jeter – 37, decline phase
Carl Yastrzemsk – 39, decline phase
Paul Molitor – 39, playing well
Willie Mays – 39, decline phase
Eddie Murray – 39, last good season
Cal Ripken – 39, decline phase
George Brett – 39, decline phase
Paul Waner – 39, hanging on
Robin Yount – 36, decline phase
Tony Gwynn – 39, playing well
Alex Rodriguez – 39, decline phase
Dave Winfield – 41, decline phase
Craig Biggio – 41, hanging on
Ichiro Suzuki – 42, hanging on
Rickey Henderson – 42, hanging on
Rod Carew – 39, decline phase
Lou Brock – 40, decline phase (but good final season)
Rafael Palmeiro – 40, decline phase
Wade Boggs – 41, decline phase
Al Kaline – 39, hanging on
Roberto Clemente – 37, playing well

I skipped the early guys and just looked at post-war. Lots of subjective calls there, especially between “decline phase” and “hanging on.” Ichiro’s a special case because of his late start, and so was Clemente.

Having said that, I’d put Beltre alongside Rose, Aaron, Musial, Molitor, Murray, Gwynn, and Clemente as the 3,000-hit guys who weren’t just playing out the string to one degree or another.

Yount's a special case too. Definitely in decline, but he was still only 36, playing every day, and contributing some--and only three years removed from an MVP--so he hadn't really overstayed his welcome yet. He played one more season and retired at 37.

That led me to look up the oldest MVPs -- Bonds with 4 of the top 6, dang.

http://emulateproducts.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Anti-Aging-Elixer-Swiss-Apple-Stem-Cell-w-Organic-Moringa-Oil-3x3-inch.png

Willie 'Decline Phase' Mays at 39 (1970) was 8th in the NL in offensive winning pct (right behind Hank 'Playing Well' Aaron), had a slash of .291/.390/.506, and hit 28 homers. The next year he led the NL in walks and OBP (112, .425).

I hate doing this, but for the second time in three or four years I'll waste my time responding to you and explain something I thought would be self-evident. 1970 Willie Mays is being compared to prime Willie Mays; ditto Hank Aaron. If you think Willie Mays in 1970 = Willie Mays in 1965 or Willie Mays in 1954, that's great. And just to anticipate your next silly comment, yes, I do realize very few players = Willie Mays in 1965 or 1954. I do get that.

gold star

Similarly, Hank Aaron was a 5-win player in 1970, not the 8-9.5-win player of his prime, if you want to put a cherry on it.

Now we can go back to ignoring each other

2999

Clem and Morbs fighting reminds me of my parent's divorce.

don't worry they'll get back together when the angels win the pennant

anyway yay

Beltre has exactly one 200 hit season (in 2004 he finished with exactly 200 hits). Without checking, I'm assuming that's the fewest 200 hit seasons for any player with 3000 hits.

nope! A few have 0, or 1.

Clem and Morbs fighting reminds me of my parent's divorce.

Which of them was stuck in 1990?

zero 200-hit seasons: Anson, Rickey H, Murray, Winfield, Yaz

One: Beltre, Biggio, Collins, Kaline, Mays, Palmeiro, Yount

Most of them better hitters than Pete Rose, of course.

(pulled that straight from today's NY Times column by Tyler Kepner)

Wow, so more than a third of the 3000 hit club had zero or one seasons with 200 hits. Am I the only one who's sort of shocked by this?

There are a lot of patient hitters there (but not too patient, too many walks = not enough hits) but not really a comp for Beltre.

i'm surprised too, i guess, but not shocked. getting to 3000 is just a function of longevity. the player with the 50th most hits last year was nick markakis, with 161. if a player had 161 hits each season of their career, it would take them about 18-19 years to reach 3000. if a player has 200 hits a year, it would take them 15 years, which is faster, but...not really that much faster. so it just seems to be a matter of staying healthy and having a long career.

still boggling at the fact that nick markakis has 1,995 career hits

so many players this year chasing major milestones, really looking forward to Markakis' 2000th hit, i hope he gets it at home.

the growth of the 3000 Club in the last 40 years is just bananas

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-everyone-should-love-adrian-beltre/

The "Best of Adrian" clip at the bottom is great.

NoTime: Pujols and Cabrera will get to 3,000 with only one 200-hit season each.

(Altuve, on the other hand, riding the Gwynn-Boggs-Ichiro Express.)

future HOFer jose altuve is an obvious pick but don't rule out Less Sexy Starlin

Bill James predictor tool has Cano with 59% chance of making it to 3000.

I think Cano will make it. There are a lot of middle infielders like Castro who look like decent bets mid-career--they start young and pile up a lot of hits by the time they're 30--but they're just not good enough to play regularly into their late 30s. My guess is Castro's one of those guys, Elvis Andrus too. Altuve's obviously qualitatively different.

castro has no chance, he's not good enough to play for as long as he'd have to

Robbie Alomar looked to be a guy to maybe go way over 3000 hits as he had been so dependable and then he was not anymore.

I got to give Castro a bit of props for coming out of the garbage bin to even be good again, he looked maybe washed up a couple years ago.

Robbie Alomar looked to be a guy to maybe go way over 3000 hits as he had been so dependable and then he was not anymore.

― earlnash, Monday, July 31, 2017 11:39 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Alomar's fall was rather sharp: 193 hits at age 33, then 157, then 133, then 45.

Cano's contract basically guarantees that he'll get enough PT to Biggio his way to 3000 hits.

538 had a 3,000-hit roundup the other day:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-will-join-the-3000-hit-club-after-adrian-beltre/

Trout, Machado, and Harper all 200-300 hits ahead of the average 3,000-hit guy.

Alomar's drop-off still mystifies me. I had a theory at the time that I've since discarded. Coming off his near-MVP season in 2001, he was just shy of 2,400 hits and not yet 34. I thought at the time he was headed for the Top 10, maybe even 3,500 hits.

(xpost)

big-gi-o

/ bij-ˈjē-ō/

transitive verb

1. to hang around unproductively for the sake of specious awards and milestones

“Martin Scorsese finally biggioed his first Academy Award for The Departed.”

Finally you and Morbs can agree on something. Glad I could help (the assist goes to Biggio for inspiring this feel good moment by, uh, biggioing the last three years of his career).

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/08/08/report-umpire-joe-west-suspended-three-games-for-bashing-adrian-beltre-publicly/

In keeping with the general feeling that umpires are a touch sensitive these days.

joe west is a confrontational dick, but that is lame

i mean in the seven weeks since that happened, MLB had him ump home plate in the all-star game

yeah, that seems silly. didn't west say they were on good terms, and beltre said he thought it was a joke?

nah fuck joe west

In best promotion ever, #Rangers giving away miniature on-deck circles to honor Adrian Beltre: https://t.co/9pzL8ZfRI9

— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) August 11, 2017

hahaha

love it

out at least four weeks ;_;

Awful! He's having a partial season that ranks with all his other second-greatest seasons.

Adrian Beltre got to meet Beltre the Giraffe at the @FortWorthZoo today. https://t.co/Isr4ahfM88 pic.twitter.com/Bk3lwq3VaQ

— Cut4 (@Cut4) March 30, 2018

Adrian Beltre Becomes the Latin American Hit King https://t.co/I4ZNwtnCUe

— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) April 5, 2018

That is just amazing. This guy has blossomed into an All-Timer.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/adrian-beltre-is-now-the-international-hit-king/

I never get tired of these two guys:

http://www.mlb.com/cut4/felix-hernandez-laughed-at-adrian-beltre-after-striking-him-out/c-289319882

(Extra credit to Beltre--as the announcers point out, he knows when not to joke around.)

I hope Ade comes back for a final season. He’s been injured and his statline is a touch below recent years but still, he has been playing out of his mind the past couple weeks and his bWAR is a very nice 2.3 (in approx 2/3 of a season.)