Ichiro/Sisler Watch!

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http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/ichiro_graph.gif

Outlier anyone? Check today's Hardball Times for a great article on Ichiro's regression.

He has definitely lost a step or two speedwise. He flubbed a flyball yesterday, not too different from the one that got away last week.

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 15:41 (eighteen years ago) link

From that same article: "If Ichiro has slowed down, then why are his triples up, and his stolen bases and stolen-base percentage nearly equal to his numbers from last year? Why is he posting a career high Range Factor (2.56) and a much better Zone Rating (.883) than last season? His defense hasn't declined and neither has his speed on the base paths..."

Haikunym (Haikunym), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 16:21 (eighteen years ago) link

My observation was based on watching him attempt to run out 3 groundouts and comparing it to the same blazing speed that I had seen in years previous.

His range on the flub (scored a single) looked feeble, like there was no doubt that a ball in semi-shallow right was a potential out (the A's fans were particularly shocked at the miscue). Ichiro got a bad jump, and the play was bookended by a particularly ungraceful finish (he inadvertantly kicked the ball into the infield after the flub).

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 16:30 (eighteen years ago) link

hey at least he kicked it into the infield! also: "who are you going to believe, statistics in the article you yourself quoted or your own lying eyes?"

Haikunym (Haikunym), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 16:40 (eighteen years ago) link

...or the home scorer who gives Ellis a single...

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 16:51 (eighteen years ago) link

(That was the only flyball out of the infield off of Felix Hernandez in his 7 innings pitched BTW... maybe Ichiro was sleeping).

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 16:56 (eighteen years ago) link

or contemplating how a lot of baseball statheads have been ragging on him for years as a substandard overhyped player who needs to improve his power numbers in order to be a useful corner outfielder, and why they are changing their tunes now that he's gone and done it, and how everyone agrees that BA is all overhyped but the fact that his is down from last year WHEN HE GOT MORE HITS THAN ANYONE EVER is somehow cause for huge scary alarm and editorials and stuff

Haikunym (Haikunym), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 17:08 (eighteen years ago) link

Heh.

Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 17:16 (eighteen years ago) link

to be fair, his OBP has dropped a lot from last year's outlier season, but it's only down about ten points from 2003. i'm sure there are people who think he's a crappy leadoff hitter because he's only at .342 OBP, but i disagree. he's probably just tired of carrying his sorry-ass team, and worn out.

Haikunym (Haikunym), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 17:19 (eighteen years ago) link

or contemplating how a lot of baseball statheads have been ragging on him for years as a substandard overhyped player who needs to improve his power numbers in order to be a useful corner outfielder, and why they are changing their tunes now that he's gone and done it

Except he hasn't done it -- his SLG is down from last year, and is right in line with his career average. Sacrificing loads of BA and OBP in order to hit the ball in air more and drive a few more balls out of the park isn't making him more of a productive player, judging by the correlations between G/FB ratios and his BA.

MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 17:52 (eighteen years ago) link

Oh now wait a second, if we're all agreeing that 2004 was an outlier, check Ichiro's OBP/SLG from 2003 like I said and get back to me to apologize for "boatloads." Also, he has more HRs now than ever and more triples too, and he'll probably set a personal record for RBIs, and on a horrible team, as long as we're talking about "power numbers". So nyah.

Look, I don't think he's as good as he was last year. But neither is he ready for the scrap heap, either as a player or in the court of baseball-nerd public opinion. A lot of OMG SO AWESOME players were allowed to slip off after a stat-spike season and it was treated like "well that was predictable." Seems like people just want to go "haha told you he wasn't any good." I think he's also suffered from having one of the crappiest lineups in baseball behind him; what's the point of getting another 262 hits if there's no one to knock you in?

Haikunym (Haikunym), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 18:17 (eighteen years ago) link

and I only believe about 1/2 of what I'm saying here, so I won't mind anyone proving me wrong...IF YOU CAN

Haikunym (Haikunym), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 18:22 (eighteen years ago) link

>baseball statheads have been ragging on him for years as a substandard overhyped player<

Who's called him 'substandard'? That'd be silly. Overhyped without a doubt.

He's one of those exciting, stylish players who's fun to watch (who the hell knows how he makes contact with some of those swings) but just... is... not... GREAT. (unless he hits .360)

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 18:32 (eighteen years ago) link

Ichiro's career-high in SLG = ROOKIE YEAR. Also his career high in SB. (Ah, "youth".) Career-wise, his SLG numbers are pretty consistent - no weirdo spikes or anything. His OBP goes w/ his AVG; only walking 40-50 times a year does that. Worth nothing: this year, Ichiro is "sucking ass" (276/322/410) against righties.

David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 18:38 (eighteen years ago) link

WRT: Ichiro's speed. I read somewhere that scouts have confirmed that Willy Taveras can get to 1st as fast as Ichiro (note: Taveras is a Righty).

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 18:56 (eighteen years ago) link

yeah but Taveras is not 32 years old, so why is this so surprising? hey, if WT can just hit .372/.414 next year, I'll be on his bandwagon!

Haikunym (Haikunym), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 19:39 (eighteen years ago) link

Willy T is #1!


http://houston.astros.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=430838

boldbury (boldbury), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 19:46 (eighteen years ago) link

Willy Taveras = substandard

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 19:52 (eighteen years ago) link

Willy T is hitting .310 (.344 OBP) against righties which is definitely something the Mariners could use in a leadoff guy!

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 21:05 (eighteen years ago) link

And the Mets!

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 21:38 (eighteen years ago) link

Willy Taveras = substandard

Doesn't change the fact that he's #1.

boldbury (boldbury), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 21:40 (eighteen years ago) link

I'll take Ichiro's "ass-sucking" numbers against righties over Tavera's any day of the week.

Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 22:32 (eighteen years ago) link

one year passes...
"Once I turn 40," he says, "I can become a pitcher. I'm kind of serious about it. But I'll have to learn to throw a knuckleball. Right now, I could be a 'normal' pitcher," who can top out at 95 mph with a fastball.

Andy K, Thursday, 17 May 2007 13:30 (sixteen years ago) link

one month passes...

Okay so someone explain to me again why Ichiro wasn't always in CF?

Alex in SF, Friday, 22 June 2007 04:22 (sixteen years ago) link

1) Mike Cameron
2) He was a big baby about moving from RF

David R., Friday, 22 June 2007 04:50 (sixteen years ago) link

Heh well it's clearly not cuz he can't play the position.

Alex in SF, Friday, 22 June 2007 04:57 (sixteen years ago) link

it seems like he's always watching out about being hurt. it limits his range.

jergïns, Friday, 22 June 2007 06:22 (sixteen years ago) link

Uh his Zone Rating is really really good (.916) and he's made 50 plays OUTSIDE of his zone according to Hardball Times.

Alex in SF, Friday, 22 June 2007 14:08 (sixteen years ago) link

Back in the day he was very awed by Mike Cameron's defensive plays, I remember him praising MC very highly. I think he said at one point that he was the best player he ever played with (take that A-Rod!)

Steve Shasta, Friday, 22 June 2007 16:36 (sixteen years ago) link

He never played with A-Rod though?

Alex in SF, Friday, 22 June 2007 16:53 (sixteen years ago) link

a-rod = adrian beltrod.

Steve Shasta, Friday, 22 June 2007 17:43 (sixteen years ago) link

I didn't get to watch much of the game the other day, but I have to say, what I saw was awesome. You know, the one where Seattle was playing. Against some team. TBH I completely forget now. Anyway, Ichiro's up, hit a single grounder to the left (and basically STOPS the bat mid-swing when he realizes it's an off-speed pitch, too), 3rd baseman makes a spectacular diving play + throw and still doesn't beat Ichiro because the dude is amazing.

Then Ichiro steals second. Then Ichiro steals third. Then some dude hits a grounder to third, 3rd baseman makes a nice catch, looks at home and realizes he has NO chance of catching Ichiro, and trows to first for the out which he gets.

It's been a while since I've watched much baseball but I REALLY like watching Seattle. If I didn't hate their cap so much I would buy one! (I think I used to have one in the mid 90s, actually, but that was the mid 90s when navy and green were ok together, amirite?)

Will M., Friday, 22 June 2007 18:12 (sixteen years ago) link

i won't buy another mariners cap until they do away with the teal. fuck that color.

alex, with his speed i think his range could be even wider. (but my thinking is more based on watching him than any statistical analysis)

jergïns, Friday, 22 June 2007 21:42 (sixteen years ago) link

wow this thread kinda makes me hate all of you, now i see why all the cool ppl left for I luv football

cankles, Saturday, 23 June 2007 15:55 (sixteen years ago) link

Do you like teal a lot.

polyphonic, Saturday, 23 June 2007 15:57 (sixteen years ago) link

two weeks pass...

THIRD IN BLORP!~!!!! PONDER THAT U SECRET-KOREAN ICHIRO HATERS

(NICK SWISHER THINKS U CAN SUCK A DICK BTW, NO HOMO)

cankles, Tuesday, 10 July 2007 12:36 (sixteen years ago) link

HI DERE MORAN

NE MORE TRADE OFFERS LOL?

David R., Tuesday, 10 July 2007 13:41 (sixteen years ago) link

two years pass...

Haha I like that Ichiro is coyly bitching about the team dress code while talking up the prez.

He was only 21 years old when he 16 (Alex in SF), Wednesday, 15 July 2009 20:20 (fourteen years ago) link

Ichiro is crushing hard in that picture.

He was only 21 years old when he 16 (Alex in SF), Thursday, 16 July 2009 23:00 (fourteen years ago) link

three years pass...
eight months pass...

One hit away from 4000!

Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 20 August 2013 20:56 (ten years ago) link

bbr: ichiro's WAR in '04 was 9.2, which led the league (3rd in mlb behind bonds and beltre)

christmas candy bar (al leong), Tuesday, 20 August 2013 21:01 (ten years ago) link

Third post on this thread:

Raul Ibanez is 5 for 5.
― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, August 17, 2004 9:32 PM (9 years ago)

clemenza, Tuesday, 20 August 2013 21:14 (ten years ago) link

Know who else had 4000 hits? Jigger Statz.

http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/ddd7d6e6

Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 21 August 2013 23:47 (ten years ago) link

http://deadspin.com/last-night-on-fox-sports-1-the-worst-sports-panel-disc-1182957398

Haha good grief

polyphonic, Thursday, 22 August 2013 18:44 (ten years ago) link

was sure before i clicked that Pete Rose wd've been invited

Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 22 August 2013 18:56 (ten years ago) link

wow what a meas

k3vin k., Thursday, 22 August 2013 19:58 (ten years ago) link

Read a couple of things yesterday that both concluded he'd be at or very close to 4,000 if he'd started in Seattle at age 21. A big factor is that all those years in Japan, he was playing a 136-game schedule.

clemenza, Friday, 23 August 2013 12:59 (ten years ago) link


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