Moneyball

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Without cheating, take a guess at of the top 50 leaders in On-Base Percentage in the major leagues last year (2003), how many played for the Oakland As?

gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 19 November 2003 06:28 (sixteen years ago) link

2?

Leee Majors (Leee), Wednesday, 19 November 2003 07:06 (sixteen years ago) link

Of the 30 teams in MLB, Oakland finished at what rank in OBP for 2003?

gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 19 November 2003 15:38 (sixteen years ago) link

Leee = nope. Any other guesses for Q#1?

gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 19 November 2003 15:51 (sixteen years ago) link

Djibouti? Rita Moreno?

I don't know, tell me.

mookieproof (mookieproof), Wednesday, 19 November 2003 17:00 (sixteen years ago) link

Okay, the answers are:

[hit CTRL-A to view]

Only 1 of the top 50 MLB leaders in OBP was on Oakland, Mr. Erubiel Durazo (sp?). If you narrow that sort to just AL, only 4 of the top 50 OBP leaders are As.

Oakland finished the 2003 season 21st out of 30 in team OBP. Take some pitches guys!

gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 19 November 2003 17:37 (sixteen years ago) link

one month passes...
so.... how many of you folx read moneyball?

gygax! (gygax!), Friday, 19 December 2003 03:34 (fifteen years ago) link

It is on my list of books to eventually check out.

earlnash, Friday, 19 December 2003 03:53 (fifteen years ago) link

Just for the matter of public record, I have.

Leee Iacocca (Leee), Friday, 19 December 2003 06:28 (fifteen years ago) link

two weeks pass...
As for Moneyball the book... have any of you read "Wordfreak" or "Wild And Outside" by Stefan Fatsis? I think Mr. Tabitha Soren owes a little to Mr. Fatsis.

gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 8 January 2004 19:28 (fifteen years ago) link

SF Chronicle interview with Michael Lewis... mentions Lewis considering Moneyball 2... a review of sorts covering the draftees/rookies in Moneyball.

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 20 January 2004 20:09 (fifteen years ago) link

additional reading:
aaron gleeman's The Boys Of Moneyball recap from last year

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 20 January 2004 20:14 (fifteen years ago) link

The Bosox have "the Greek God of Walks," don't they? I wanna see him play!!

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Wednesday, 21 January 2004 01:58 (fifteen years ago) link

Not at Bill Mueller's expense I hope!

Leee Majors (Leee), Wednesday, 21 January 2004 22:01 (fifteen years ago) link

Are you speaking of Bill "2003 AL Batting Title AND I can switch-hit back-to-back Grand Slams AND all the SF Giants got for my departure was David Bell/Edgardo Alfonzo and their limp popouts" Mueller?

gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 21 January 2004 22:07 (fifteen years ago) link

Yah that guy! And also "Silky slick glove at the hot corner not seen in SF since the glory days of Matt 'Matty' Williams."

Leee Majors (Leee), Wednesday, 21 January 2004 23:20 (fifteen years ago) link

three weeks pass...
Article by Billy's XO, Paul DePodesta, on the difficulty of implementing sabremetric theory:

http://www.csfb.com/thoughtleaderforum/2003/depodesta_sidecolumn.shtml

mookieproof (mookieproof), Wednesday, 11 February 2004 16:58 (fifteen years ago) link

Awesome!!!

http://www.csfb.com/thoughtleaderforum/2003/images/depodesta_b1.gif

gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 11 February 2004 17:37 (fifteen years ago) link

Thanks again mookieproof for that!

gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 11 February 2004 17:48 (fifteen years ago) link

two weeks pass...
did anyone read billy beane's SI piece last week (?) about the Moneyball backlash?

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 2 March 2004 02:35 (fifteen years ago) link

yeah, i read the si piece. came off as bitter in my mind.

otto midnight (otto midnight), Tuesday, 2 March 2004 02:57 (fifteen years ago) link

profile on Jeremy Brown

gygax! (gygax!), Friday, 12 March 2004 20:43 (fifteen years ago) link

two months pass...
http://www.sfgate.com/chronicle/pictures/2004/05/27/sp_athletics103.jpg
Kevin Youkilis (right, next to Johnny Damon) was once coveted by the A's and has reached base in all of eight his big-league games.

Kevin Youkilis is the A's kind of player. So much so that he's mentioned in that tome of A's-ness, "Moneyball,'' which detailed how much Oakland general manager Billy Beane had coveted him in 2001.

"It's great to be in the book and to get that recognition, but it was a crazy year with all the questions about 'Moneyball,' '' the Red Sox rookie said. "It's nice to know that somebody sees me as an asset. Ever since college, (the A's) wanted to draft me, but something happened and the scouting department screwed up. It's all in the book.''

Not that Youkilis, who spent four years at the University of Cincinnati, read it all. "I'm not a big book guy,'' he said, grinning. "I read most of the parts with me in it.''

Here's one surprise for those familiar with the best-seller. The A's front office dubbed Youkilis "the Greek God of Walks'' for his on-base prowess -- but he's not Greek. The name is Greek, but it's one his Romanian grandfather adopted.

"I'm the non-Greek Romanian God of Walks,'' Youkilis said with a laugh.

Youkilis, 25, showed why he fits the A's way the past two days, reaching base six times. He's been on base in each of his eight big-league games.

Could he ever wind up in Oakland? (He nearly did once -- had Beane taken the Red Sox's GM job two winters ago, Youkilis would have been the compensation for him.) Youkilis loves playing in Boston, but he does have a Bay Area connection: Beane will be happy to learn that Youkilis' brother, Scott, lives in San Francisco and works at Sociale restaurant in Presidio Heights.

"I don't think Theo (Epstein, the Red Sox's GM) will let me leave here,'' Youkilis said. "But you never know, they've been fighting over me for a couple of years.''

gygax! (gygax!), Friday, 28 May 2004 04:54 (fifteen years ago) link

>Youkilis...spent four years at the University of Cincinnati... "I'm not a big book guy,'' he said, grinning.

That goes right into the recruitment mailings!

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 1 June 2004 12:38 (fifteen years ago) link

Yeah, stick him & all the men's basketball juco transfers on the cover of the next brochure. "Cincinnati - big on campus, not on books!" Maybe have Bob Huggins in the background making like Dean Wermer (sic).

BTW, KY has been godlike (or, at least, very good) since coming up. That .440ish OBP is very sexy.

David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 1 June 2004 12:52 (fifteen years ago) link

but check his game log: particularly walks vs. hits... ???

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 1 June 2004 12:54 (fifteen years ago) link

two months pass...
The Marlins-Dodgers trade has been the latest anti-"Moneyball" bonfire (which has been going on since the dyed-in-the-wool media and MLB crowds noticed it was a bestseller). Oh boo hoo, DePodesta traded LoDuca at the peak of his value for a stud pitcher and others, but he was THE HEART AND SOUL OF THAT TEAM! And what of CHEMISTRY?!?

Billy Beane gave some pretty good needles while defending his former lieutenant DePo:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3321


"I talked to Paul this morning and asked if he could acquire some chemistry from another GM whose team is out of the race. But I'm concerned chemistry might not clear waivers."

"The fact is, they appear, at least in early returns, to be a better team. They appear to have more flexibility to make themselves a better team next year. Maybe I've got this wrong, but getting better and creating flexibility would be my approach whatever market I'm in."


The secondary drumbeat has been the "defensively sound" post-Nomar Sox and their two new mediocre bats. I listened to Assface Brantley and STEVE FRIGGIN' PHILLIPS join in on ESPN during the Bosox-Tampa Bay game last night. "Theo Epstein is moving away from Moneyball strategy, relying more on steals and defense," said The Man Who Signed Fat Mo. "Where does leadership fit in the Moneyball world?" drawled Brantley. I really wanna see the Dodgers flourish and the Indians beat out the good-glove Crimson Cranks for the w.c. to let the Jurassic crowd stew all autmn and winter...

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 13:37 (fifteen years ago) link

Amen, Morby.

David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 13:57 (fifteen years ago) link

I really wanna see the Dodgers flourish and the Indians beat out the good-glove Crimson Cranks for the w.c. to let the Jurassic crowd stew all autmn and winter...

I wonder if Penny's injury will significantly affect LA down the stretch. I'd take either your scenario above or the A's actually winning a postseason series.

mattbot (mattbot), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 14:14 (fifteen years ago) link

Apparently Penny's MRI shows he'll only miss one start. The Dodgers may have made a dicier move acquiring Old Man Finley.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 14:35 (fifteen years ago) link

um, epstein's trades weren't "anti-moneyball" in the least. or at least, trading for defense/valuing it highly isn't.

take a look at what mr. moneyball and the a's have done over the past couple years.

do keep up.

John (jdahlem), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 15:34 (fifteen years ago) link

I don't think Epstein has abandoned the basic philosophy -- as Kahrl wrote in BP, he just caved.

Valuing Cabrera/Minky defense over Nomar offense is anti-Moneyball.

>take a look at what mr. moneyball and the a's have done over the past couple years

Hmmm, not sure whatcha mean -- Mark Kotsay? Good CF glove, but a stud at the plate this year too...

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 15:42 (fifteen years ago) link

"Valuing Cabrera/Minky defense over Nomar offense is anti-Moneyball."

how do you know? and might this be oversimplifying things somewhat fantastically?


kotsay, cameron (who beane made a hard charge at), ellis, chavez are all positively exceptional defensively (at least as judged by advanced defensive metrics such as UZR or the A's own metric, which seem to produce similar findings). there's also the acquisitions of pokey reese, orlando cabrera, and doug mienkiewicz from a team which i could've sworn was thought to be very much sabermetrically-inclined until they started going against the grain; now they're on the side of the infidels and not a fair benchmark by which to judge sabermetric achievement - on the contrary, their failure will prove the folly in "caving" to old-world baseball principles. don't be afraid to stick to your guns, theo: you're supposed to go after after fat, slow guys who can mash, remember? leave the athletic defense-and-speed types for the uninitiated.

as usual, the disparity in thought here can be pegged on a trifle: bp uses an outdated metric to evaluate defense and is too stubborn to admit it. but elsewhere in the stat-world, defense is the new obp.

John (jdahlem), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 16:09 (fifteen years ago) link

but John, isn't the #1 SABR fallacy: "moneyball"/SABR-metrics = OBP

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 16:13 (fifteen years ago) link

?

either that was my point, or i don't understand what you're saying.

John (jdahlem), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 16:19 (fifteen years ago) link

>defense is the new obp.

Wellll... that's crazytalk! Offense for most individual players is X times as important as defense. Paul Blair isn't in the HOF, Reggie Jackson is.

Remember the Moneyball chapter where the A's studied how many outs letting Johnny Damon leave would cost them in CF? They got a number, and concluded they could more than make it up with offense. Nothing wrong with valuing defense highly -- it helps win games -- but there is with OVERvaluing it, which the littleball / oldskool guys do by rote.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 16:22 (fifteen years ago) link

which is precisely why I find this Rolen over Bonds MVP talk is a bunch of malarky.

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 16:24 (fifteen years ago) link

Bonds values the game the right way!

mattbot (mattbot), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 16:29 (fifteen years ago) link

He should be doing more for his team, like good ole boy Scotty.

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 16:32 (fifteen years ago) link

"Nothing wrong with valuing defense highly -- it helps win games -- but there is with OVERvaluing it, which the littleball / oldskool guys do by rote."

i think it's become pretty clear lately that this isn't always the case.

John (jdahlem), Tuesday, 10 August 2004 16:49 (fifteen years ago) link

don't know where to put this so i'll just slide it in here since it maybe ties in in the big scheme of things:

over at redbird nation they quote a for-pay sheehan article on pitchers:

"Whether it's the physical toll, the mental strain or just the way the world spins, the vast majority of pitchers are completely unpredictable. They get good, and they get bad, and they get to all points in between, and they do so randomly. This is why, when it comes to building a team, I don't see any need to spend money on the middle of the pitching bell curve. If you can invest in the top tier, then you should do so. Get Johnson or Greg Maddux or Roger Clemens. Money spent on the Sidney Ponson class is money thrown away, because the chances of getting three straight good years from a guy like that is tiny. So you build a staff around the very best, then fill in around it with low-risk gambles and guys you develop."

this is sooo right. unless you're the yankees, spending 12M on a guy like millwood, colon, ponson or pettitte is generally a pretty dumb thing to do.

John (jdahlem), Monday, 16 August 2004 18:48 (fifteen years ago) link

there was an article i read last season or possibly in 2002 which detailed a statistic measuring something like "pitching consistency"... mainly, pitchers who are the most consistent over the course of a season. i will try to find it when i get a chance.

gygax! (gygax!), Monday, 16 August 2004 18:51 (fifteen years ago) link

one thing I like about the Cubs is that since the Jose Guzman experiment, they've been more careful about the free-agent pitcher signings. I suppose with KW/MP/CZ they don't have to worry that much, though...

Gear! (Gear!), Monday, 16 August 2004 20:18 (fifteen years ago) link

Jose Guzman! Man, I remember when his Upper Deck baseball card was worth A WHOLE DOLLAR! (According to Bêçkëtt.)

Mr. Tony Plow (Leee), Monday, 16 August 2004 21:20 (fifteen years ago) link

I saw Jose Guzman pitching for the Ft. Worth Cats last year.

miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Monday, 16 August 2004 22:31 (fifteen years ago) link

When did he get rid of his mullet?

Mr. Tony Plow (Leee), Monday, 16 August 2004 22:50 (fifteen years ago) link

one month passes...
``My whole philosophy is if he's going to hurt you to a point where you can't recover, then you can't pitch to him,'' [Brewer's Coach Ned] Yost said. ``Just let common sense rule. In reality, 6.25 times out of 10, he's going to make an out. Statistics say that.''

Is this the closest thing to a SABR-coach?

Leeeter van den Hoogenband (Leee), Thursday, 16 September 2004 02:00 (fifteen years ago) link

If he actually said "point two five," then yes.

mattbot (mattbot), Thursday, 16 September 2004 04:10 (fifteen years ago) link

actually w/ barry it's probably damn near 50/50 at this point, when walks are considered.

John (jdahlem), Thursday, 16 September 2004 14:05 (fifteen years ago) link

True, John, but when you remove intentional walks (and unintentional intentional walks, if that's possible), then you probably get a number close to the number Yost is bandying about.

David R. (popshots75`), Thursday, 16 September 2004 14:20 (fifteen years ago) link

At catcher, yes.

polyphonic, Friday, 24 February 2012 00:23 (seven years ago) link

He couldn't catch anymore because he suffered an injury that made it tough for him to throw to second, but the first baseman doesn't have to make throws like that for the most part.

polyphonic, Friday, 24 February 2012 00:24 (seven years ago) link

1st base is one of the least demanding positions to field, aside from the fact that you get a shitload of balls your way. its usually where you switch a guy to if he has a good bat but is having trouble fielding his current position.

RudolfHitlerFtw (Hungry4Ass), Friday, 24 February 2012 00:26 (seven years ago) link

Ah ok I see, thanks!

used to have a crush on Dawn from En Vogue (admrl), Friday, 24 February 2012 00:30 (seven years ago) link

And they were paying him only 900k, whereas every other 1B in the league who outperformed him made significantly more money, so he provided great financial value.

polyphonic, Friday, 24 February 2012 00:34 (seven years ago) link

What is the average age at which baseball players retire? Assuming it isn't as different by position as it is in "soccer", i.e. goalkeepers playing into their 40s, etc

used to have a crush on Dawn from En Vogue (admrl), Friday, 24 February 2012 00:45 (seven years ago) link

i dont know what the actual age is, but pitchers seem to age the best with a fair number of them playing into their 40s.

RudolfHitlerFtw (Hungry4Ass), Friday, 24 February 2012 00:56 (seven years ago) link

fair amount /= average imho. average MLB career has got to be something like 2-3 years right? pulled that outta my ass, lolgtfo.

hatteburg had never played 1B in his life, but beane didn't care. the film/book tries to elevate this as drama: "I DON'T CARE IF YOU'VE NEVER PLAYED 1B, WHAT MATTERS IS THAT YOU CAN GET ON BASE AND YOU ARE CHEAP." In economics, this is called exploiting market inefficiencies. In essence that's what Moneyball the film tries to do: "we only have this much money so we have to get creative in order to win games."

thanks you guys,
peter grasswich
a/k/a "queequeg" or "peter g."

queequeg (peter grasswich), Friday, 24 February 2012 03:06 (seven years ago) link

hi

buzza, Friday, 24 February 2012 03:48 (seven years ago) link

why it makes any sense to make these dudes train for a position they have no obvious experience/skill at playing.

On an individual basis, defense is less important than offense. Casey Stengel, regarded as one of the greatest managers, played guys "out of position" ALL THE TIME. There are loads of guys with bad gloves in the Hall of Fame; bad bats, very few.

Literal Facepalms (Dr Morbius), Friday, 24 February 2012 05:55 (seven years ago) link

one month passes...

It's kind of a terrible video fwiw.

polyphonic, Thursday, 5 April 2012 22:09 (seven years ago) link

three months pass...

Finally caught it on cable. Pretty lousy.

Andy K, Thursday, 26 July 2012 00:08 (seven years ago) link

*glances at picture of one of his Little League teams*

Andy K, Thursday, 26 July 2012 00:09 (seven years ago) link

A's working on sequel!

Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 26 July 2012 00:24 (seven years ago) link

I thought the movie was absolutely fucking awful. Blind Side was a pile of shit, too.

Mr. Snrub, Thursday, 26 July 2012 00:56 (seven years ago) link

u know Michael Lewis had nothing to do w/ the movies

Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 26 July 2012 01:01 (seven years ago) link

No one said he did

pun lovin criminal (polyphonic), Thursday, 26 July 2012 01:02 (seven years ago) link

‏@D_Train35
Man they might have to make MONEYBALL 2 the way A's are playing right now. #oaktown

Andy K, Thursday, 26 July 2012 02:29 (seven years ago) link

hope it's better than the bad news bears go to japan

j.q higgins, Thursday, 26 July 2012 17:07 (seven years ago) link

three weeks pass...

Just saw this. Jonah Hill was awful, he detracts from the movie. The side plot with Beane and his daughter didn't work at at all, I guess Hollywood norms dictate that you should have a precocious child to counterbalance a brooding, complex lead character. Otherwise, this wasn't bad, especially for an insider baseball film produced for a general movie audience,

NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 19 August 2012 22:14 (seven years ago) link

three months pass...

Nate Silver Verified
‏@fivethirtyeight
My sh*t doesn't work in the fantasy football playoffs.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 11 December 2012 05:15 (seven years ago) link

Just watched. Really annoyed with the Rincon scene where Beane/Jonah Hill dismiss the Giants and specifically mentions JT Snow (2002 OBP .344), Kent (.368), and some other guy (.582 lol).

I was in this prematureleee air-conditioned supermarket (Leee), Saturday, 22 December 2012 20:35 (six years ago) link

one year passes...

2lazy2google:

Has Beane ever spoken about PEDs at length?

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Monday, 20 January 2014 21:36 (five years ago) link

Re-signing Bartolo Colon after his 50 game suspension kinda said it all.

polyphonic, Monday, 20 January 2014 22:02 (five years ago) link

not really

mookieproof, Monday, 20 January 2014 22:13 (five years ago) link

two weeks pass...

http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/A-s-exec-GM-Farhan-Zaidi-takes-old-and-5205023.php

Zaidi wowed Beane and Forst. A 2 1/2-inch binder full of projections for the 2005 A's didn't hurt, nor did Zaidi's affinity for Oasis, a British band that Beane also likes. Zaidi had been embarrassed to list "Britpop" as an interest on his resume, but it wound up helping seal the deal.

"David and I looked at each other when he left and said, 'That's the guy,' " Beane said. "It wasn't just his analytical skills, it was his incredible personality. It was important to us to find someone to fit into a very fraternal group."

Chemistry! RIP, Moneyball.

Andy K, Wednesday, 5 February 2014 02:23 (five years ago) link

what other front-office metrics do you have?

images of war violence and historical smoking (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 5 February 2014 02:30 (five years ago) link

(Jokes.)

Andy K, Wednesday, 5 February 2014 13:43 (five years ago) link

ten months pass...

Some customers, of course, maybe 15-20% of them, loved the competitive chutzpah it took for Beane to trade his best player. For them, winning is all that matters.

Others, such as the author of this essay, were appalled. We other 80-85%, perhaps we are evolutionary dead ends, the kind of people who let our emotions get in the way of us pulling the trigger. Perhaps we are the kind of people who, in the end, will lose, and thus fail to pass on our genes to the generations of people 200 million years from now. We are freeloaders, parasites feeding off the efforts of the 15-20% of the population who actually accomplish something.

So be it. I am what evolution has produced to this point, a person who does not believe that winning is the highest value. These emotions that group-level selection has instilled in me–the feelings of loyalty, betrayal, belonging, loneliness, embarrassment, forgiveness, shame, remorse, gratitude, sympathy, rejection, acceptance that drive us to compete in groups and for groups–these are the things that drive me to be an Oakland Athletics customer. I value these things more than winning itself. For if I didn’t, it would be very easy to just cross the bay and join hands with the team that has won three of the last five World Series, the team that has actually won, the San Francisco Giants....

http://ken.arneson.name/2014/12/the-long-long-history-of-why-i-do-not-like-the-josh-donaldson-trade/

things lose meaning over time (Dr Morbius), Monday, 8 December 2014 18:22 (five years ago) link

That is a seriously long history.

One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 9 December 2014 00:16 (five years ago) link

i thought the first 4/5ths was excellent and then it collapsed into a prolonged reddit aspie rant when he should connected his master argument together.

iggwilv azaelea (sanskrit), Tuesday, 9 December 2014 03:16 (five years ago) link

two months pass...

In 2002, A's general manager Billy Beane crafted a new kind of major league baseball draft class. For the next 12 years, Tabitha Soren, who is married to Michael Lewis, followed the class made famous by Moneyball, chronicling with her camera the vagaries of the players' lives on and off the field. These are 10 of those players, from 2002 to 2014.

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12347245/faces-revolution

Andy K, Sunday, 22 February 2015 20:46 (four years ago) link

three weeks pass...

BP is doing a free article on each team's 'version' of moneyball for this season. Here's the Yankees':

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25828

the increasing costive borborygmi (Dr Morbius), Friday, 20 March 2015 11:55 (four years ago) link

six months pass...

Beane and James discuss big data, open-source vs proprietary analytics, etc.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-discussion-with-baseball-revolutionaries-billy-beane-and-bill-james-1442854375

skateboards are the new combover (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 23 September 2015 03:20 (four years ago) link

nine months pass...

let us discuss the status of billy beane's genius, because his recent moves seem pretty fuckin disastrous

donaldson trade: brutal
butler signing: doesn't even make any sense
dealing pomeranz for yonder alonso: what

i can't really blame the a's for going all-in two years ago, and if that wild card game turns out differently then maybe it's all worthwhile. but i don't think they needed to give up addison russell to get samardzija

mookieproof, Thursday, 14 July 2016 23:23 (three years ago) link

this is what the A's got for AL MVP Josh Donaldson, who was under contract for four more years at the time:

- LHP Sean Nolin posted a 5.28 ERA in six starts in 2015 and was waived in the offseason
- RHP Kendall Graveman is a not-quite-league-average starter
- SS Franklin Barreto is scuffling in the Texas League (he might be the youngest player in it, though)
- INF Brett Lawrie for one year with a 94 WRC+

Lawrie has since turned into:

- LHP Zack Erwin, who has a 6.12 ERA in 16 starts at high-A (yeah it's the Cal League, but he doesn't have the strikeouts either)
- RHP J.B. Wendelkin, who has a 4.55 ERA as a Triple-A reliever (does have the Ks at least)

Barreto is a legit prospect and might well become a solid big league shortstop. That is not enough for four years of the second-best player in the league.

mookieproof, Thursday, 14 July 2016 23:31 (three years ago) link

one year passes...

The book was released 15 years ago today.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 19 June 2018 03:26 (one year ago) link

one year passes...

http://www.thecommunitypaper.com/images/chuckle.jpg

buzza, Thursday, 3 October 2019 07:12 (two months ago) link

Does Beane still brag about his s*** not working in the playoffs? Since 2000, the A's are 1-15 in games where they could have advanced.

Everyone accepts that the Braves only won one WS during the 90's-'00's because of real tangible things like not having decent bullpens and Bobby Cox managing the playoffs like the regular season. What is Beane missing?

NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 3 October 2019 10:46 (two months ago) link

i don't think beane was bragging

mookieproof, Thursday, 3 October 2019 13:13 (two months ago) link

Ya, it was more like a warning label.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 3 October 2019 13:18 (two months ago) link

Maybe not bragging, but he was saying that the playoffs are dominated by luck (small sample sizes) and are therefore beyond the GM's job description. Does anyone still believe that?

NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 3 October 2019 13:39 (two months ago) link

i don't think he was saying it's beyond the GM's job description either. he was saying that it's tough.

the a's won 97 games this year; unfortunately that was still 10 games worse than a historically good astros team. if you want to call their season (or their executives) a failure for losing a one-game playoff, i think that's overly harsh.

and what beane is missing is a number one starter (although he might now have one in either luzardo or puk), which is nice to have in a wild card game.

mookieproof, Thursday, 3 October 2019 14:24 (two months ago) link

"secret sauce" for the postseason is even more elusive given the huge reliever usage evolution in PS

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 3 October 2019 14:29 (two months ago) link

The secret sauce changes every year depending on who is winning. Whatever it is, Beane's teams never seem to have it.

Beane had great starters in the past (the Big Three in the early 2000's, Lester in the WC game in 2014), they never seem to get over the hump. At some point, it has to be more than just bad luck/the PS is tough.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 3 October 2019 15:00 (two months ago) link

There’s was enough bang in that A’s lineup to overcome a 4 runs deficit, especially with the juiced ball. A’s also lost because they could only get singles.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 3 October 2019 17:01 (two months ago) link

Another promising regular season ended in disappointment for the A's, but there's still plenty to celebrate about their year. @CraigBrown_BP discusses the good and the bad for our ongoing Hindsight 2020 series.https://t.co/gJ5M2GDfEO pic.twitter.com/rKKOiMgiBh

— Baseball Prospectus (@baseballpro) October 3, 2019

mookieproof, Thursday, 3 October 2019 17:02 (two months ago) link

I’m just wondering if the A’s ‘shit that doesn’t work in the playoff’ is simply lacking an extra 50 millions players worth of salary.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 3 October 2019 17:07 (two months ago) link

That I think, in part... I'm agnostic on whether there are other tangible reasons, but on the surface level, the Oakland teams that failed to advance had different strengths. This year's was more power-heavy (adjusted for environment) than usual.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 9 October 2019 18:33 (two months ago) link


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