Hot Stove 2023-2024

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For the 26 clubs not playing baseball this week, the stove is heating up ...

NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 16 October 2023 13:38 (one year ago) link

Kim Ng declined her option and won't return as Marlins GM. I guess she has something better already lined up?

NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 16 October 2023 13:39 (one year ago) link

They tried to install someone above her and wouldn't let her hire people.

reggae mike love (polyphonic), Monday, 16 October 2023 16:56 (one year ago) link

Sounds bad. Can’t imagine she’ll end up in Boston where the first stipulation of the job is that you’re not allowed to fire Alex Cora.

I’m going to get fined for being right, again (gyac), Monday, 16 October 2023 17:01 (one year ago) link

really bad look on Miami here. they tried to effectively demote one of the few women working in baseball after the teams makes it to the playoffs twice (I believe) under her - with hardly any payroll?!

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 16 October 2023 17:39 (one year ago) link

there was an article about kim ng in the athletic just earlier this month that sounded like a victory lap, i took it as a sign that she was going to be in miami for the long-term...

, Monday, 16 October 2023 19:51 (one year ago) link

for obvious reasons this a PR nightmare for the marlins but honestly the team this year was beyond lucky to even be sniffing the playoffs & i was never really impressed by a lot of her personnel decisions. she made some good bets on middling big league players like soler, josh bell, jake burger but every marlins GM is operating w/ one hand tied behind their back and bcuz of that the organization needs a robust farm system and her front office's track record of drafting & developing was looking really poor. i'm sure her side of the story contains 500 different examples of why GMing the marlins is nearly impossible -- bomani jones talks often about how they throw black coaches the worst NFL jobs, have to feel like a similar dynamic was at play here -- and hiring a man over is her is just like... what the fuck is wrong with this franchise? and the owner frankly seems like a complete tyrant, he's now had two GMs (jeter first) walk away from the job. i mean, it's really hard to have two GMs just walk off the job when there are only 30 of them. jeter you could easily come up w/ logical reasons why it might not have been worth his time, but the first woman GM in history?? she was just like, "actually i'm good"??? anyway i'm making a lot of excuses for her while also saying that i didn't think she was all that great at being the marlins GM specifically and the future of the franchise could be a lot brighter if they hired someone who really knows how to draft and build a farm system. but the one thing that's the hardest to fix in any sport is bad ownership

J0rdan S., Monday, 16 October 2023 21:45 (one year ago) link

i guess i should say that she did succeed in building a team that appeared in the playoffs (nevermind losing 11-2 combined in the two game sweep) because it did seem like the front office strategy was to act as if making the playoffs was the same as winning the world series. she spent money & traded prospects to get guys like soler, avisail garcia, bryan de la cruz, bell, burger etc who are a very unsexy type of player who is a rung or two above replacement level. she basically put together a .500 team that ended up having the best luck of any team in baseball & was able to ride that to the playoffs, and that counts as an accomplishment for this franchise, obviously. but she was pursuing a very low ceiling type of team & i expect that regardless of who is in charge next year they are going to get a big taste of reality in terms of the actual quality of the roster. maybe that's an ownership directive -- make the playoffs asap but also you can't spend real money -- or a survivalist strategy for a GM and not kim ng's worldview on team building. but the track they were/are on is extreme mediocrity & maybe there is someone out there better equipped to try and find this franchise a sustainable window of actual world series contention, and not "let's just make the wild card and say we got this franchise to the playoffs"

J0rdan S., Monday, 16 October 2023 22:14 (one year ago) link

I was under the impression that she was doing a good job despite the many limitations involved with being the GM of the Marlins. In over 30 years, has the franchise ever had a decent long term plan to stay in contention? Ownership has always gotten in the way of that.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 17 October 2023 11:07 (one year ago) link

i think decent job is very relatively speaking. they were 24 games under .500 last year w/ the cy young winner & if you read anything about which teams had the greatest luck in close games this year, the marlins were a deeply mediocre team that were very fortunate to be anywhere near the playoffs.

J0rdan S., Tuesday, 17 October 2023 15:47 (one year ago) link

I normally agree with J0rdan so I'm pretty taken aback by his steamy turd of a take.

Marlins payroll in 2022 started at $67.5 million (26th/30) and ended up around $80M.

2023 was $110M (24th/30) and they made the playoffs.

she spent money & traded prospects to get guys like soler, avisail garcia, bryan de la cruz, bell, burger etc who are a very unsexy type of player who is a rung or two above replacement level.

Would you believe that 20 years ago there was a NYT bestseller based entirely on this concept!?!

citation needed (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 17 October 2023 17:27 (one year ago) link

Jake Burger‘s slash line since the trade deadline was .303/.355/.505, OPS of .860. How many trade deadline acquisitions were that impactful? Luis Arraez was also a good trade.

I’m going to get fined for being right, again (gyac), Tuesday, 17 October 2023 17:41 (one year ago) link

i think one reason she traded for Jake was he was afaict extremely unlucky with his BABIP and the underlying stats were very positive for him. his exit velo was pretty superior too. she might have been banking on a course correction and it seems like the right move in retrospect.

omar little, Tuesday, 17 October 2023 17:50 (one year ago) link

luis arraez 2023 fWAR - 3.4
pablo lopez 2023 fWAR - 4.5

i'm not gonna dump on that trade cuz arraez is a fun player. but the marlins also ended up starting braxton garrett in game 2 of the playoffs this year.

you guys have any thoughts on the 4/53 contract given out to avisail garcia after he was randomly good one year?

do you guys know the names khalil watson, joe mack, or jacob berry? those are the marlins first round picks under ng. go check top 100 prospect lists and tell me where those names appear. by every measure this is a bottom third farm system in baseball, and the crown jewel (eury perez) that was keeping that ranking even relatively afloat was from the previous regime. when the farm system rankings refresh next year the marlins will be in the consensus bottom 5

like i said earlier, she did some legit good stuff finding decent major league players on the margins and that is a key part of being the GM of the marlins. she may be really good at that relative to her peers. but for the marlins to succeed the farm system needs to be constantly siphoning in and producing talent that outperforms salary, and she never showed any promise on that side. in reality, it was the opposite.

J0rdan S., Tuesday, 17 October 2023 18:09 (one year ago) link

the jeter front office also had a track record of drafting poorly and was legendarily bad at developing hitting prospects, so maybe the marlins entire minor league infrastructure is rotten & ng was a victim of that. entirely possible! but i also know that prospect and draft writers consistently had issues w/ the marlins draft strategy & selections

J0rdan S., Tuesday, 17 October 2023 18:13 (one year ago) link

If the Marlins wanted to keep Kim Ng as they claimed, I think it would have made more sense to hire a new scouting lead under her. Instead they wanted to add an exec above her. That's a weird way to fix the scouting department.

reggae mike love (polyphonic), Tuesday, 17 October 2023 19:37 (one year ago) link

Baggs says the Giants are hiring Bob Melvin.

Side note: I love how often his source is Buster Posey, the guy who grants one interview a year and who texts him all the time.

After a swift interview process, they are poised to announce the hiring of Bob Melvin, sources briefed on the matter told The Athletic on condition of anonymity.

The Giants moved quickly once the Padres granted permission to speak to Melvin, who had one year remaining on his contract to manage in San Diego but was known to clash with Padres GM A.J. Preller. Melvin met on Monday with several top Giants officials on the baseball operations and ownership level, including executive board member Buster Posey. Evidently, nothing emerged from those conversations to dissuade San Francisco officials that Melvin, a Bay Area native who turns 62 on Saturday, was the right choice for the current moment.

I’m going to get fined for being right, again (gyac), Tuesday, 24 October 2023 17:43 (one year ago) link

Sean Casey announced on his podcast "The Mayors Office" that he will not be returning as Yankees hitting coach for family reasons.

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) October 25, 2023

can’t believe this

I’m going to get fined for being right, again (gyac), Wednesday, 25 October 2023 16:11 (one year ago) link

https://deadspin.com/mookie-betts-trevor-bauer-los-angeles-dodgers-rape-1850980801

Mookie should probably not be reflecting on what a great guy Trevor Bauer is.

omar little, Wednesday, 1 November 2023 22:17 (one year ago) link

This story seems so so so bad.

Sources: The San Diego Padres took out a loan for about $50 million in September to address short-term cash flow issues and meet their obligations, including player payroll. With @dennistlin and @Ken_Rosenthal: https://t.co/uUr3NRHXN7

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) November 1, 2023



From the article:

The Padres started the season with a payroll of about $250 million, third-most in baseball, and an outlier among teams that play in a similar bottom-third media market. The investment generated excitement and income: the club set a franchise record with 3.3 million tickets sold, and per a team spokesperson, finished in the top six in the sport for regular-season ticket revenue.

But in September, the Padres had a third-party lender willing to loan the club $100 million. The team asked MLB for permission to receive close to the full $100 million, according to people briefed on the team’s finances. MLB gave the team permission to draw roughly $50 million, which the league deemed a sufficient amount for the team to cover its expenses.

“If the question is, despite all that revenue growth, why would we need to be borrowing more money? I mean, you can connect those dots,” said a Padres official who was not authorized to speak publicly. “The levels of payroll that we’ve been at have probably reasonably been in excess of what we could have supported, but it was part of the larger plan.”


I had read earlier in the season that some Diamondbacks fans were complaining that the team “spent Goldy’s money” on the disastrous Bumgarner contract. If the Padres end up trading Soto solely cos they can’t afford him because they signed yet another shortstop, idk if I’d ever forgive them as a Padres fan? Though I guess they could trade him as a rental and hope to resign him, but he’s going to get the guts of $460m upwards from somewhere.

And yes Omar, the man is a fucking idiot.

mojo dojo casas house (gyac), Thursday, 2 November 2023 10:22 (one year ago) link

Soto's in arbitration so I don't think the Padres necessarily have a huge commitment to him if they are indeed in a bleak financial hole. He'll likely sign with a wealthier team when he's a free agent in 2025. He could bounce around a bit this season.

citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 2 November 2023 17:14 (one year ago) link

i'm glad it finally got explained how the padres were spending so much money. i never understood it. interesting choice to jack your payroll up so high you have to take out a loan while putting that payroll in the hands of AJ preller. wouldn't have been me!

slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 2 November 2023 17:18 (one year ago) link

xp sorry I could have been clearer- I didn’t mean his payroll costs. If they’re not going to spend to keep him then they should trade him and they could get a haul even for a rental, which would help if they’re trying to keep payroll costs down and can demand a couple of good young players with years of team control

mojo dojo casas house (gyac), Thursday, 2 November 2023 18:07 (one year ago) link

Clayton Kershaw just announced on Instagram he underwent surgery to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule on his left shoulder. He says he is hopeful to return at some point next summer.

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) November 3, 2023



So Kershaw is going to miss a big portion of next season (his contract is up now actually but I think we all assumed he’s retiring a Dodger?), they just declined Lance Lynn’s player option, going to assume Urias won’t be on the roster opening day. That leaves Miller, Gonsolin and then question marks over May and Buehler?

mojo dojo casas house (gyac), Friday, 3 November 2023 18:01 (one year ago) link

Gonsolin is out for 2024 iirc

citation needed (Steve Shasta), Friday, 3 November 2023 19:25 (one year ago) link

options on tim anderson and whit merrifield declined

ilb fave mark canha dealt to detroit

bellinger and stroman opted out. not too sure about the latter doing so -- he was so terrible in the second half of the season that i'm skeptical someone will offer him the $21m he would have made with the cubs? guess he wants more years tho, and i suppose everyone needs pitching

mookieproof, Saturday, 4 November 2023 22:18 (one year ago) link

Prob more years & lower aav in case he gets injured again

mojo dojo casas house (gyac), Saturday, 4 November 2023 22:19 (one year ago) link

David Ross out in Chicago, Craig Counsell in

mojo dojo casas house (gyac), Monday, 6 November 2023 18:33 (one year ago) link

Ohhh that mother fucker

frogbs, Monday, 6 November 2023 18:34 (one year ago) link

That is not going to make him any friends

mojo dojo casas house (gyac), Monday, 6 November 2023 18:38 (one year ago) link

Craig Counsell's $8 million-a-year deal with the Chicago Cubs is an industry-shaking deal. In recent years, multiple coaches have pointed out that it's more lucrative financially to take a job with a college program than an MLB team. Counsell's deal could help change that in MLB.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 6, 2023

mojo dojo casas house (gyac), Monday, 6 November 2023 19:02 (one year ago) link

Three new managers hired on the same day today! (Cubs, Guardians, Mets)

NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 6 November 2023 20:02 (one year ago) link

stephen vogt is a good dude; hope he does well

mookieproof, Monday, 6 November 2023 22:03 (one year ago) link

I believe in him

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azTGrocYlu4

reggae mike love (polyphonic), Monday, 6 November 2023 22:35 (one year ago) link

David Ross's Cubs exceeded my expectations this year. Is he a weirdo behind the scenes or something?

reggae mike love (polyphonic), Monday, 6 November 2023 22:53 (one year ago) link

Heyman said it wasn’t anything he did so much as the Cubs jumping on the chance to have Counsell

mojo dojo casas house (gyac), Monday, 6 November 2023 23:01 (one year ago) link

WAIVERS: #Rockies have claimed LHP Jalen Beeks off waivers from the #Rays.

— MLB Transaction Tracker (@MLBMovesTracker) November 7, 2023



Good luck keeping your ERA below 5 in Coors you homophobe

mojo dojo casas house (gyac), Tuesday, 7 November 2023 13:22 (one year ago) link

jal-jal beeks

omar little, Tuesday, 7 November 2023 16:43 (one year ago) link

OFFICIAL: the Angels have hired Ron Washington as the Club’s manager. pic.twitter.com/NGWV6X10PW

— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) November 8, 2023

Andy K, Thursday, 9 November 2023 00:15 (one year ago) link

Happy for Wash, sad for Barves infielders.

that's when I reach for my copy of Revolver (WmC), Thursday, 9 November 2023 03:25 (one year ago) link

happy for wash, but that is not a situation in which anyone can succeed

there are managers teams will fite for/fire people simply to get (joe madden once, craig counsell now)

(bob melvin may think he's in this category, but he's not)

there are managers (of color) who have done well but, you know, maybe they're not quite up to the task, if you know what i mean (cora, roberts)

there are managers (of color) who are obviously simply caretakers until the team might have a chance to compete (wash, rick renteria, pedro grifol, bo porter, luis rojas). jim riggleman is white but remains the purest expression of this variety of manager

there are managers (of color) who've spent decades in the minors and sometimes they randomly get a shot (charlie montoyo, charlie mendoza, oliver marmol, dave martinez)

there are *scrappy* white managers who've spent decades in the minors and sometimes they randomly get a shot (snitker, schumaker, rob thomson, shildt, torey lovullo)

there are pitching coaches who are in way over their heads (bud black, ray miller)

there are (white) former catchers who get hired with no experience whatsoever (matheny, ross, vogt, cash, schneider, gonna throw hinch in here although he had *some* experience, gonna throw boone in here although he wasn't a catcher)

there are the (white) young geniuses (cash, kapler, maybe rocco?)

there are (white) managers who have somehow survived being terrible for quite a long time (shelton, servais)

have i missed anything (beyond legends like dusty and bochy)

mookieproof, Thursday, 9 November 2023 04:43 (one year ago) link

Bud Black, it's hard to know where to fit him in.

clemenza, Thursday, 9 November 2023 04:48 (one year ago) link

pitching coaches who are in way over their heads
and/or
managers who have somehow survived being terrible for quite a long time

imo

mookieproof, Thursday, 9 November 2023 04:52 (one year ago) link

(not that i blame bud black -- the rockies are a garbage organization)

mookieproof, Thursday, 9 November 2023 04:54 (one year ago) link

That was meant as a joke having to do with his name.

clemenza, Thursday, 9 November 2023 04:59 (one year ago) link

ah

mookieproof, Thursday, 9 November 2023 07:05 (one year ago) link

Welcome to Detroit, Jason Benetti.

Andy K, Thursday, 9 November 2023 15:39 (one year ago) link

Something I had completely forgotten till I saw the headline on Posnanski's post today (and then immediately remembered): Ron Washington delivers one of my two of three favourite lines in Moneyball, "It's incredibly hard."

clemenza, Thursday, 9 November 2023 16:24 (one year ago) link

(aside: That actor (Brent Jennings) who portrays Wash had one of the leading roles in AMC/Hulu's Lodge 49 and was amazing.)

citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 9 November 2023 19:56 (one year ago) link

Guys..... if you don't want me posting dodgers news someone else has to pick up the slack

BREAKING: Catcher Will Smith and the Los Angeles Dodgers are finalizing a 10-year, $140 million contract extension, sources tell ESPN.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 27, 2024

TIL baby faced Will is 29 years old. Combined 38 years of contract length for the dodgers current 1-4 hitters.

H.P, Thursday, 28 March 2024 03:18 (eight months ago) link

Kinda suprised to see the Dodgers break their rule of "short term high avg" deals which was the status quo for the Andrew Friedman years up until Mookie. No one got an over 5yr contract till that point. Sure of course your break that rule for Mookie. Sure you break that rule for Ohtani. Maybe you break that rule for Yamamoto??? But now breaking it for Will Smith? It's the definition of an "underpay now, overpay in 5+ years time" contract, the opposite of the high yield rookie extension contracts that are in fashion these days. Friedman really changing his modus operandi

H.P, Thursday, 28 March 2024 03:32 (eight months ago) link

In honour:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLmEqSWSPPM

This is in my opinion, the at-bat most responsible for the Dodgers winning the 2020 World Series. Highest wpa (world-series probability added) for sure. Also, it's Will Smith vs. Will Smith

H.P, Thursday, 28 March 2024 03:38 (eight months ago) link

God he's so patient

H.P, Thursday, 28 March 2024 03:40 (eight months ago) link

Will Smith’s 10-year, $140 million contract extension includes 32 percent deferred money (about $44.8 million), source tells The Athletic.

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) March 27, 2024

🫣

H.P, Thursday, 28 March 2024 03:46 (eight months ago) link

will smith is a great player but he turns 29 in 10 minutes and it's insane to give a catcher a contract through his age-38 season

that said, $14m/yr is fine, and they can afford it, and i guess they can waive him when his body and/or brain fall apart

anyway, good for him -- i like him

mookieproof, Thursday, 28 March 2024 03:50 (eight months ago) link

Yep. With the deferrals it's probably like 12.5~ on the luxury tax too for the life of the deal? Insanely reasonable.
Doesn't seem optimal to have both him and Ohtani doing the same 10 years together. No real space at DH for when Will's body does fall apart. The Dodgers love having people play at multiple positions (often to their detriment) so maybe they try shift him to 1b once Freddie is out of town? His bat is so valuable, you want to keep finding a spot for him

H.P, Thursday, 28 March 2024 03:53 (eight months ago) link

I like Will Smith a lot too. This contract seems to be all about AAV because 10 years is ridiculous.

Bee OK, Thursday, 28 March 2024 03:59 (eight months ago) link

Smith is such a good hitter I wonder if the back end of that contract isn’t played at first when Freddie’s contract is up, he’s six years younger than FF

Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 28 March 2024 08:57 (eight months ago) link

ahhh the ol' killfile. Probably for the best I suppose

H.P, Thursday, 28 March 2024 10:25 (eight months ago) link

They made a new Max Muncy

https://www.mlb.com/news/max-muncy-athletics-prospect-preparing-for-2024

reggae mike love (polyphonic), Thursday, 28 March 2024 19:10 (eight months ago) link

Max Muncy 2: Maximum Muncy

H.P, Thursday, 28 March 2024 19:48 (eight months ago) link

Jordan Montgomery never preferred to come to Boston because he wanted to join a winning team, per @JonHeyman.

Furthermore, his wife is transferring to Vanderbilt, so her presence in Boston this winter didn’t play much of a factor in his decision. pic.twitter.com/rGD9zbfTpC

— Boston Sports Gordo (@BOSSportsGordo) March 29, 2024



😭

Humanitarian Pause (Tracer Hand), Friday, 29 March 2024 00:56 (eight months ago) link

shots have been fired

H.P, Friday, 29 March 2024 01:34 (eight months ago) link

nothing new here and sorry for long copy+paste, but i found this to be a handy bite-size summary of each team's off-season. the list is sorted by team payroll changes relative to 2023

The Big Gainers (at least 10% increase since 2023)

1. Orioles ($66M to $98M, a 48% increase)

The O’s had nowhere to go but up after running a bare-bones payroll for last year’s 101-win campaign. The big increases came from arbitration raises and trading for Corbin Burnes ($15,637,500).

2. Diamondbacks ($124M to $168M, a 36% increase)

Owner Ken Kendrick wasn’t kidding when he said he was willing to add payroll to keep the team in World Series contention. The Diamondbacks didn’t lose anyone significant in free agency, and new additions Eugenio Suárez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Joc Pederson, and Jordan Montgomery will combine to earn almost $60 million this season.

3. Dodgers ($236M to $314M, a 33% increase)

The Dodgers reined in spending in 2023 with an eye on having maximum flexibility for this season, and goodness did they flex it. They committed over $1 billion in free agency, 36% of the entire league’s total.

4. Royals ($91M to $116M, a 27% increase)

Kansas City’s big move was the mega-extension for Bobby Witt Jr., with free agency expenditures large in quantity (seven MLB free agents) but low in big splashes. (Seth Lugo’s $36 million contract was the largest.) Still, they look markedly improved.

5. Rays ($79M to $97M, a 23% increase)

The Rays were pretty quiet in free agency, but their payroll is up quite a bit even after trading away Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot. The large collection of arbitration-eligible players accounts for most of the gain here.

6. Pirates ($70M to $84M, a 20% increase)

This is similar to the Rays’ situation; Aroldis Chapman ($10.5 million) was Pittsburgh’s biggest free agent commitment. David Bednar’s arbitration years and Mitch Keller’s extension could keep the Pirates in the $80M+ range for a while.

7. Nationals ($109M to $130M, a 20% increase)

In the final year of his contract, Patrick Corbin is earning $11 million more than he did in 2023, and his raise accounts for over half of Washington’s increase.

8. Astros ($201M to $241M, a 19% increase)

This year, the Astros almost certainly will pay the luxury tax for the first time under owner Jim Crane. Josh Hader signed the biggest free agent deal for a reliever (by present value), and yet he has just the fifth-highest salary on the team.

9. Reds ($87M to $104M, a 19% increase)

Cincinnati had a very Royals-y offseason. Jeimer Candelario’s three-year, $45 million deal was the largest signing the Reds made, but add the $13 million he’ll earn this season with the salaries of newcomers Emilio Pagán, Frankie Montas, and Brent Suter and you get $37.5 million of fresh commitments to four players. That explains the increase in payroll even without Joey Votto on the team anymore.

10. Cubs ($190M to $224M, an 18% increase)

The Cubs waited awhile to strike in free agency, but they’ve now got four players earning over $20 million and another three above $10 million.

11. Braves ($205M to $230M, a 13% increase)

The Braves added more complementary players from the outside (Reynaldo López, Jarred Kelenic, Aaron Bummer) because their extension-heavy strategy creating few holes to plug. Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Sean Murphy’s raises combine for $12 million in extra salary.

12. Yankees ($272M to $301M, an 11% increase)

Juan Soto’s hefty $31 million salary in his walk year explains the Yankees’ payroll jump, as the Marcus Stroman contract and arbitration raises are essentially negated by the salaries of Josh Donaldson, Luis Severino, and Frankie Montas (among others) coming off the books.

The Moderate Gainers (between 5% and 10% increase since 2023)

13. Giants ($196M to $208M, a 6% increase)

The Giants look significantly better on paper with Jung Hoo Lee, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Jorge Soler, but they’re not actually that much more expensive. Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford, Sean Manaea, Alex Wood, and Ross Stripling all underperformed in 2023 and are now playing elsewhere.

14. Rangers ($214M to $226M, a 6% increase)

The World Series champs did their big shopping in the two offseasons before last year, and many of the core contributors from the 2023 roster are still with the team. The largest contract Texas gave out this free agency was Tyler Mahle’s two-year, $22 million deal, leading to a minimal increase in payroll.

15. Blue Jays ($215M to $226M, a 5% increase)

After missing out on Shohei Ohtani, the Blue Jays had a low-key offseason. Yariel Rodriguez signed for $32 million but started out in the minors to get stretched out, and rather than making big expenditures the team will instead be relying on improvements from stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

16. Athletics ($59M to $61M, a 5% increase)

Well, at least their relative change is actually qualifying as a moderate increase? By absolute change, this is essentially nothing; their highest paid player is Ross Stripling, who’s earning $12.5 million, but the Giants are covering $3.25 million of that, meaning the A’s themselves aren’t paying a single player eight figures.

Largely Unchanged (Within 5% of their 2023 payroll)

17. Cardinals ($178M to $181M, a 1% increase)

The Redbirds got most of their offseason shopping out of the way early, locking down Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn before the Winter Meetings. The Gray deal is heavily backloaded, though, keeping things steady.

18. Guardians (steady at $98M, a 0.4% increase)

The Guardians will look to bounce back from a sub-.500 year with largely the same personnel.

19. Phillies (steady at $246M, a 0.2% decrease)

The Phillies tend to allocate their contracts evenly and will run it back with essentially the same squad that brought them to within one win of their second straight NL pennant.

20. Mariners ($140M to $139M, a 0.7% decrease)

Seattle made plenty of moves without adding payroll because, as you might have expected, trader Jerry Dipoto’s swaps kept the ledger pretty balanced.

The Moderate Slashers (between 5% and 10% decrease since 2023)

21. Mets ($346M to $324M, a 7% decrease)

The Mets’ payroll remains stratospheric, but nearly $70 million is money paid to other teams for James McCann, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer. They’re projected to be all the way down to $159 million in commitments for 2025, with no huge arbitration raises set to add to that significantly.

22.Tigers ($121M to $109M, a 10% decrease)

Don’t confuse cheaper with worse. The Tigers should be a much better team this year; they just no longer have Miguel Cabrera’s $32 million on the books.

23.Red Sox ($199M to $178M, a 10% decrease)

Boston’s offseason was many things, but full-throttle it wasn’t. Adding injury to insult, the team’s big free-agent addition, Lucas Giolito, will miss all of 2024 after undergoing UCL repair surgery.

24.Marlins ($110M to $99M, a 10% decrease)

Peter Bendix had a quiet first offseason with the Marlins, with Tim Anderson ($5 million) being his only free agent expenditure.

25.Brewers ($126M to $110M, a 13% decrease)

Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes, brought back Brandon Woodruff on a reduced salary, and signed Rhys Hoskins to a backloaded contract that adds only $10 million to the 2024 payroll. Even so, the Brewers are 3–0 to start the season and should still contend for the NL Central title.

26.Rockies ($172M to $147M, a 15% decrease)

Colorado’s payments for Nolan Arenado went down from $21 million last year to $5 million this year, creating almost the entire difference. The team’s only free-agent additions were Jacob Stallings ($2 million) and Dakota Hudson ($1.5 million).

27.White Sox ($177M to $146M, an 18% decrease)

With Liam Hendriks, Yasmani Grandal, Tim Anderson, Elvis Andrus, Aaron Bummer, Mike Clevinger, and Dylan Cease all gone, the White Sox are dealing with a drastic decline in payroll and talent — two roster attributes that could continue to crater next offseason, when both Yoán Moncada and Eloy Jiménez could become free agents.

28.Angels ($215M to $174M, a 19% decrease)

The Angels ducked under the luxury tax threshold by just $30,000 after letting five players go on waivers last August, and they won’t come anywhere close this year. Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout alone combine for nearly 45% of that.

29.Twins ($159M to $128M, a 20% decrease)

Owner Jim Pohlad said payroll would go down, and it certainly did, even as the Twins look primed to repeat as AL Central champs. Carlos Santana ($5.25 million) was Minnesota’s “big” free agent signing.

30.Padres ($255M to $167M, a 34% decrease)

The Padres followed through on plans to bring payroll down to a more manageable level to come into compliance with MLB’s debt-servicing rules, and they didn’t replace Juan Soto in any meaningful way, either.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-of-the-order-lets-review-payrolls/

z_tbd, Monday, 1 April 2024 15:48 (eight months ago) link

Kim Ng undoubtedly having the last laugh at the Marlins getting absolutely throttled at home by another bottom 20% team in MLB to start their season 0-7.

citation needed (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 3 April 2024 21:19 (eight months ago) link

The Marlins have a whole rotation on the IL!

Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Wednesday, 3 April 2024 21:35 (eight months ago) link

Kim Ng undoubtedly having the last laugh at the Marlins getting absolutely throttled at home by another bottom 20% team in MLB to start their season 0-7.

― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, April 3, 2024 5:19 PM (twenty-two minutes ago)

she should be considering people are pinning the failures of a team she built on someone else

slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Wednesday, 3 April 2024 21:43 (eight months ago) link

sasaki is probably going to the dodgers at a massive discount next offseason*:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/yankees-mets-dodgers-cardinals-among-teams-scouting-roki-sasaki.html

It’s no surprise, then, that several MLB teams are showing interest in Sasaski. However, the two-time NPB All-Star might have already decided where he wants to pitch in 2025 and beyond. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, “several GMs” are under the impression that Sasaki “already has plans to sign with the Dodgers” during the 2024-25 offseason.

According to one general manager, “There’s no way he’s going anywhere else but the Dodgers. We all know it.”

* maybe

While that particular comment was spoken in no uncertain terms, it also sounds more like conjecture than insider knowledge. Indeed, this entire report may be more speculation on the part of the executives than anything else. After all, at least seven teams besides the Dodgers are actively scouting Sasaski, and they wouldn’t be doing so if they didn’t think they had a chance to secure his services in the future. Moreover, even if Sasaki truly does have his sights set on the Dodgers, the rest of the league will still have an opportunity to change his mind.

z_tbd, Thursday, 4 April 2024 15:49 (eight months ago) link

I wonder if he needs an intrepeter? I know a guy...

citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 4 April 2024 15:53 (eight months ago) link

Monty dropped Boras

LHP Jordan Montgomery has hired Wasserman’s Joel Wolfe & Nick Chanock as his agents, per sources.

Montgomery was one of the Boras Four, who were unsigned late into free agency.

I projected he would get 5 yrs, $106M and he eventually signed for 1 yr, $25M w/Arizona on March 26.

— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) April 11, 2024

Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 11 April 2024 16:58 (seven months ago) link

i would have too

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 11 April 2024 21:39 (seven months ago) link

three weeks pass...

Kudos to gyac and the others who saw the Sale trade as potentially a good thing for Atlanta--he's been their most durable starter so far and is pitching well. Checked Grissom, and he's having a good season in the minors--and is on the verge of being brought up--but Sale has really helped fill the void created by Strider's injury. I'm even starting to wonder if he can get his HOF case back on track--I've got like seven rookie cards! He'd really have to have a four- or five-year run and pitch till he's 40.

clemenza, Thursday, 2 May 2024 17:04 (seven months ago) link

Grissom is going to debut Friday after being struck down by the flu virus ripping through the Woosox (Red Sox triple A team) clubhouse. Anyway Sale has been great, but like Glasnow, the problem isn’t if he can be great, it’s can he stay healthy.

Anyway excited to see Grissom when he finally debuts, the 2B spot has been a dead zone for production all season (apart from when Connor Wong plays there)

Btw clem I am sorry for ignoring your email the other day but I was sick and in and out of sleep and just remembered it now!

Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 2 May 2024 17:16 (seven months ago) link

Also I should point out Grissom should have started the season on the big league team but he picked up a hamstring strain in spring training and was rehabbing in triple A to make up for the lost time.

Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 2 May 2024 17:19 (seven months ago) link

Seems weird to say that when his two highest paid teammates were flying cross country for literal months driving up their own pay by leveraging the demand from other teams, and one of them gave a deal to same team to stack a roster around him…some free agents aren’t in high demand full stop and others simply aren’t getting what they’re after. Snell was reported to be asking for $270m for 9 years, not that many teams that could pay that want to (0 at this count). I heard the Yankees made him an offer before they signed Stroman but at this stage taking on Snell on even an shorter contract with higher aav for example when they are over the highest tax threshold means they’re paying double for him. That’s an ask.

― Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Friday, March 1, 2024 8:01 AM (two months ago) bookmarkflaglink

Snell for nine(!) years at $270 million(!!) -- it's nice to dream big and i guess it only takes one sucker. weird to say that about a two-time Cy winner he's dancing on a knife's edge, feel like he could tilt over into an annual 4.50 ERA guy vv fast.

― omar little, Friday, March 1, 2024 9:53 AM (two months ago) bookmarkflaglink

seems very difficult to have a -0.6 bWAR through only 11.2 IP but Blake has done it.

omar little, Thursday, 2 May 2024 17:25 (seven months ago) link

Ikr, it’s early but it looks bad, he’s probably not going to pitch a start till late May/June now. Who knows.

Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 2 May 2024 17:34 (seven months ago) link

Also early, but Jordan Hicks’ success as a SP so far has really surprised me too!

z_tbd, Thursday, 2 May 2024 17:45 (seven months ago) link

A lot of Jays fans, me included, were clamoring for him to be given the closer role last year ahead of Romano.

clemenza, Thursday, 2 May 2024 18:13 (seven months ago) link

Grissom is going to debut Friday after being struck down by the flu virus ripping through the Woosox (Red Sox triple A team) clubhouse.

I love someone with deep enthusiasm and knowledge, gyac, but you've become a total sicko :)

il lavoro mi rovina la giornata (PBKR), Thursday, 2 May 2024 18:19 (seven months ago) link

I’m not even joking but like

The other night I was following a game on my phone and the following conversation took place

ILX USER SHARIVARI: what game are you watching? Who are the Sea Dogs?
Me: the Red Sox double A team? You know, with the big three?
IUS: I don’t know
Me: Mayer, Teel, Anthony? Roman Anthony?
IUS: I can’t believe you deny being a Red Sox fan

😞

Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 2 May 2024 18:34 (seven months ago) link

Clemenza high on Sale after one month is peak... something.

As gyac notes, his health his paramount factor. Sale has only pitched 187 IP from 2020-2024 (3.84 ERA/3.9 cumulative fWAR for that span).

Compared to workhorses like Wheeler, Burnes, Nola, Webb, Gausman, Castillo who all *each* have pitched 640-690IP over that same span, all with lower ERAs and amassing between 14.5 - 20.7 fWAR between each of them...

I'm wondering if he may even have an innings limit due to lack of endurance. Will be curious what happens in July if miraculously he's still healthy and Atlanta is in the hunt.

Mrs. Ippei (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 2 May 2024 18:36 (seven months ago) link

I actually think the Strider injury makes Sale’s health far more important than it might otherwise have necessitated; the Braves got a highest-ceiling starter with health being the main thing holding him back in exchange for a player who was blocked from their team. Now thankfully Fried seems to have pulled out of his early season nosedive but yeah, Sale staying healthy until at least the deadline has become extremely necessary in a way that it wasn’t when he signed.

Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Thursday, 2 May 2024 18:45 (seven months ago) link

Agreed to terms on a lifetime contract with the @Mets, with a signing bonus of extra biscuits. I will now open it up for questions. pic.twitter.com/74f7WHM1Yh

— Buddy (@MetsVetDog) May 3, 2024

H.P, Saturday, 4 May 2024 02:23 (seven months ago) link

There's also other action on the stove regarding a certain .400 hitter.

H.P, Saturday, 4 May 2024 02:25 (seven months ago) link

Clemenza high on Sale after one month is peak... something.

Oh, I know, I'm jumping the gun as always. I just wasn't sure if he'd be effective at all, for even a few starts. His ERA since his last good year in 2018 was over 4.00 coming into 2024, and he's a year older. I definitely didn't expect him to be leading the Braves in IP, even just barely into May.

clemenza, Saturday, 4 May 2024 02:33 (seven months ago) link

Maybe they'll have to literally sit him down for a month if they view him as key to post-season success.

clemenza, Saturday, 4 May 2024 02:35 (seven months ago) link

Friars get Arraez, fish get Dillon Head, Woo Suk-Go, Jakob Marsee and Nathan Martorella.

Mrs. Ippei (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 4 May 2024 13:53 (seven months ago) link

I'm a real Dillon Head... I even like the early '80s albums

reggae mike love (polyphonic), Saturday, 4 May 2024 19:02 (seven months ago) link

Lol

H.P, Saturday, 4 May 2024 23:22 (seven months ago) link

one month passes...

Luis Robert to the Mariners is too perfect a fit so naturally I expect him to end up a Cub or something. Goldy trade makes sense for the Cardinals but…his numbers aren’t great and he looks kind of cooked?

Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac), Tuesday, 11 June 2024 14:23 (five months ago) link

will be sad to see alonso guy, but he also turned down 7/158 so

, Tuesday, 11 June 2024 19:00 (five months ago) link

i still predict the white sox are going to ask too much for luis robert and a trade won't happen. but i also predicted the reds would win the nl central this year so who knows

na (NA), Tuesday, 11 June 2024 19:09 (five months ago) link

Poor guy, can't catch a break:

Infielder J.D. Davis was designated for assignment by the Oakland A's, sources tell ESPN. Davis was cut by San Francisco in spring training and received only $1.1M of his $6.9M salary before signing with Oakland for $2.5M. If he's not traded by Oakland, he'll be a free agent.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) June 18, 2024

Bee OK, Tuesday, 18 June 2024 03:30 (five months ago) link

one month passes...

Randy Arozarena you are a Seatle Mariner!!!

H.P, Friday, 26 July 2024 08:37 (four months ago) link

just talked to Randy, he says "thank you, i love this area and i'm looking forward to learning more. goooooo mariners!"

i miss u in the cardinals OF randy :(

z_tbd, Friday, 26 July 2024 15:26 (four months ago) link

The Phillies have acquired OF Austin Hays from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for RHP Seranthony Domínguez and OF Cristian Pache. Hays will wear No. 9.

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 26, 2024

, Friday, 26 July 2024 16:53 (four months ago) link

interesting that two of the top WS-contending teams are trading with each other!

na (NA), Friday, 26 July 2024 17:06 (four months ago) link

two months pass...

i missed the news that the new Reds manager is Terry Francona ... could be interesting

na (NA), Friday, 4 October 2024 16:31 (two months ago) link


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