Rob Manfred and the Destruction of Baseball (LOCKOUT 2022)

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dude is only commissioner because he is a lawyer with much experience fucking over labor, and he's very good at it

commissioners work for the owners, not for 'the good of baseball'

weird how franchises are somehow losing money hand over fist yet the shittiest teams still sell for $1.5 billion?

anyway i honestly hope -- as a baseball fan and player and former MLB employee -- that it all falls apart. these owners are the worst people in the world

mookieproof, Tuesday, 9 November 2021 05:18 (three weeks ago) link

and former MLB employee

I knew bud selig was an ilxor

, Tuesday, 9 November 2021 06:17 (three weeks ago) link

Do owners still claim to be losing money? I thought that myth died 20 years ago, along with the burning need to contract two teams.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 9 November 2021 08:10 (three weeks ago) link

As much as I'd like to see the players take a hardline stance in this round, I don't have much faith in Tony Clark to get it done.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 9 November 2021 08:12 (three weeks ago) link

ah, an aLgOrItHm

MLB’s proposal to players would see salary arbitration replaced with an algorithm that would determine salaries for pre-free agency players per source

Sounds like that idea will be met with resistance from MLBPA

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) November 11, 2021

mookieproof, Thursday, 11 November 2021 21:21 (three weeks ago) link

so basically the same way it is now except the players can't dispute it

, Thursday, 11 November 2021 23:47 (three weeks ago) link

The only wanted to go with fangraphs, because BBref overvalues fist pumps.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 12 November 2021 01:07 (two weeks ago) link

If salaries are going to be determined by a single metric, not WAR; bring back Game-Winning RBI.

clemenza, Friday, 12 November 2021 02:30 (two weeks ago) link

I haven't read this yet, but first thoughts are: 1) I used to kind of hate Boras, 2) haven't fire sales been going on for years, even decades (is it worse now?), and 3) there must be some deep-seated self-interest here that prompted him to speak out.

clemenza, Friday, 12 November 2021 21:12 (two weeks ago) link

I think the difference is that the old fire-sales would bring back talent, prospects. The new fire sales are just teams dumping the salaries at the deadline and getting nothing back.

Piven After Midnight (The Yellow Kid), Friday, 12 November 2021 21:22 (two weeks ago) link

"It created an incentive for the race to the bottom, because now we have half the major league teams at some time during the season being noncompetitive..."

But 30 years ago, before the wild card, three-quarters of the teams were (realistically) non-competitive. Half the teams now are competitive, and they know that just getting into the playoffs gives them a decent shot to win everything. This is all good.

(xpost) Thanks. I guess teams were scared-straight about giving up prospects because of some long-term embarrassment like the Jeff Bagwell trade. I don't think they should be; it's a roll of the dice, and most prospects bounce around, get hurt, etc. Toronto fans and media were in a panic five years ago over the David Price trade (Matthew Boyd, Jairo Labourt, and Daniel Norris), and thus far, at least, none have panned out. It was a rental, but it worked out.

clemenza, Friday, 12 November 2021 21:29 (two weeks ago) link

Anyway, he may be right that there's some major flaw in the way business is being conducted right now. But Atlanta won the same way that teams have been winning the World Series for decades: they got hot at the right time. It's not like their personnel was overwhelming. And I'm just suspicious of Boras as the messenger.

clemenza, Friday, 12 November 2021 21:33 (two weeks ago) link

I thought his point was that teams used to spend more money on free agents during the off-season. Now the incentive to load up on high priced talent isn't there because you can muddle along at .500 and retool your team for table scraps at the deadline.

The fact that more teams are competitive compared with 30 years ago doesn't help the problem, according to him, because Boras' idea of competitiveness is teams overspending to win 95-100 games and there's less incentive to do that.

I don't agree with everything he says but there's a good point buried somewhere in there.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 12 November 2021 23:47 (two weeks ago) link

That makes sense, and that's what I meant about not trusting the messenger--he's pretending to care about the game, but he's speaking purely out of self-interest (conceding there may be points of overlap).

clemenza, Friday, 12 November 2021 23:53 (two weeks ago) link

he's a blowhard and most of the things he says about individual players are ridiculous, but i think he's pretty savvy about the state of the game in general

and sure, he's self-interested, but no more so than anyone in management/ownership

mookieproof, Saturday, 13 November 2021 00:51 (two weeks ago) link

I’m not sure he has any point here. Teams can win the WS by being middle of the road spenders with a base of young talent and small deadlines moves? We just as easily could have been looking at the Dodgers in the WS. Or yankees or Sox.
I’d agree something should be done about teams just pocketing revenue and not caring about competing (Marlins). But I don’t think an unlikely team like the braves being World Series champ is indicative of any kind of problem.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Saturday, 13 November 2021 15:39 (two weeks ago) link

sawchik on the issue of young players and money. i have no idea how you'd even solve this fairly in a vacuum let alone while using the current CBA as a starting point

The players' dilemma in a couple of charts. The first shows earnings and performance by age in 2021. Age 26 players produced the most combined WAR of any age group & most plate appearances and innings of any age group. They combined for 14.7% of WAR but 3.8% of pay

— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) November 13, 2021

Combined, the 22-28 age range accounted for 56% of WAR but 25.8% of pay last season. (For reference, in 2003, 22- to 28-year olds accounted for 48.1% of WAR, further illustrating how younger players today are accounting for more production.)

— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) November 13, 2021

mookieproof, Saturday, 13 November 2021 17:37 (two weeks ago) link

That's probably been the trend since the beginning of the free agent era. There was an unwritten acceptance that it was OK to underpay young players (benefitting the teams) because they'd be overpaid down the line if they were productive. Players didn't rock the boat because they knew they'd see big money later in their careers (benefitting them more than the teams). It's a strange equilibrium but it helped maintain labour peace for the most part after the collusion settlements in the 80's.

The problem now is that front offices have stopped playing along, analytics departments can't (and won't) buy in to such a huge market inefficiency. I think the players are stuck, management strategies are constantly evolving, and there won't be an easy solution to any of this.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 14 November 2021 09:22 (two weeks ago) link

MLB lockout likely to arrive late next week. One person's guess at a 2022 timetable: Spring training is delayed until deep into March. Regular season gets going third week of April. Season shortened to 145 games. This new CBA is going to be prolonged war.

— Lynn G. Henning (@Lynn_Henning) November 23, 2021

Andy K, Tuesday, 23 November 2021 18:06 (one week ago) link

fwiw here is marvin miller's book in epub + mobi format

(believe it was initially scanned but also i spent a good bit of time cleaning it up)

mookieproof, Thursday, 2 December 2021 03:29 (one hour ago) link

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