Worst collapse of MLB 2021

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Projected by FG to win 91.5 games (third-most in the NL), they spent 91 days in first place. On August 1 they had a 4.5-game lead; since then they're 17-31, their $341 million shortstop (who is hitting .232/.328/.404) has booed his own fans, and their billionaire savior owner has quit Twitter multiple times. They've scored the second-fewest runs in the league and will finish well below .500.

Huge splash in the offseason acquiring Darvish/Snell/etc. had them projected to win 94.7 games (second-most in the NL). At the All-Star break they were over 90% to make the playoffs. Since then they've gone 23-35, their two star infielders are fighting in the dugout, and they can't dump their horribly overpaid 1B. Yes they've had injuries and yes they've had a brutal late-season schedule, but instead of finishing a projected 18 games ahead of the Giants, they're now 22.5 behind and may fall to .500 this afternoon.

These guys were expected to be a .500 team and so they are. I only list them here because in Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler they have legit candidates to win both the MVP and Cy.

Cincinnati was at 73% to reach the playoffs on August 27; since then they're 7-15 and have lost eight consecutive series -- including those against foes like Miami, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and the Cubs -- as the Cardinals have gone from 3.5 games behind them to 4.5 ahead.

Minnesota was coming off two straight division titles and was projected to claim a third with 88.2 wins. Then they lost nine of ten in mid April and were never heard from again. August was their only month over .500 -- they went 14-13 -- and in the AL only Baltimore and Texas have worse records.

Might still make it! They're a half-game up on Toronto for the second wild card spot and are just under 50% to make the playoffs. They're also outplaying their Pythagorean by six games, and apart from that 13-game winning streak in August have been thoroughly mediocre despite being initially projected to win an AL-best 95.4 games. They now have six games on the road against fellow wild card contenders Boston and Toronto followed by three at home against division-champion Tampa Bay. If they do miss the playoffs, one wonders whether Aaron Boone -- or Brian Cashman -- will survive the fallout.

Poll Results

Padres 9
Twins 2
Mets 1
Yankees 1
Phillies 0
Reds 0

mookieproof, Thursday, 23 September 2021 13:23 (nine months ago) link

voted padres ... they're the only team here that at the beginning of the season i would've said would definitely be in the playoffs.

na (NA), Thursday, 23 September 2021 13:46 (nine months ago) link

gadda be the pads

makes a bit more sense in retrospect, everyone was looking at that rotation assuming the best possible versions of all those pitchers when each of them had pretty significant downside, and they lacked the depth to account for it

, Thursday, 23 September 2021 17:18 (nine months ago) link

not voting for the reds, because i think they're going to end the season about where i thought they'd be this year. it's just odd that they have 3 of the top ten hitters in the NL (Votto, Castellanos, Winker) and the rookie of the year (India), and their rotation seems pretty solid. i'm guessing it's the defense and relief pitching that's holding them back. Their pythagorean is the same as their actual record (78-74). meanwhile, the cardinals have outperformed their pythgorean by 5 games, the most in baseball other than the red sox (6 games).

typo hell #5: maybe you get an idea of what went into, or (Karl Malone), Thursday, 23 September 2021 17:31 (nine months ago) link

gotta go with the padres though

typo hell #5: maybe you get an idea of what went into, or (Karl Malone), Thursday, 23 September 2021 17:32 (nine months ago) link

yanks are also outperforming their pythag by six games, which i did not explain clearly above

but yeah it’s probably san diego

mookieproof, Thursday, 23 September 2021 18:14 (nine months ago) link

i don't even know if the yankees are the worst collapse in the AL E! the BoSox had a commanding lead in the division up until they ran into the Rays about a month ago. their playoff odds are only slighter better than the Yankees right now.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 23 September 2021 20:12 (nine months ago) link

you could've stuck the a's on here too

na (NA), Thursday, 23 September 2021 20:16 (nine months ago) link

they had a 76.9% chance of making the playoffs in mid-june, and still had a 62.5% chance on aug. 12. they are at a 0.5% chance now.

na (NA), Thursday, 23 September 2021 20:20 (nine months ago) link

gutsy move from the padres by actually winning a game today

i never expected much from boston or oakland, so you are correct to call me out while still including cincy and philly

boston's still probably gonna make the playoffs, though, and if it's a wild card game with sale on the mound i do not underestimate their chonces

mookieproof, Friday, 24 September 2021 03:31 (nine months ago) link

Can we add the Jays as a late-breaking, last-two-weeks-of-the-season entry?

clemenza, Friday, 24 September 2021 13:18 (nine months ago) link


, Saturday, 25 September 2021 04:27 (nine months ago) link

if only they could play the orioles every day

, Saturday, 25 September 2021 04:28 (nine months ago) link

with a week left in the regular season, the padres have been eliminated from playoff contention

mookieproof, Sunday, 26 September 2021 12:51 (nine months ago) link

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

System, Monday, 27 September 2021 00:01 (nine months ago) link

i was on the jays bandwagon as of a couple weeks ago...just to see them shit the bed. i was thinking maybe i need to continue not watching jays games

Punster McPunisher, Monday, 27 September 2021 01:40 (nine months ago) link

yankees you say…

mens rea activist (k3vin k.), Monday, 27 September 2021 02:17 (nine months ago) link

i blame tracer hand

mookieproof, Monday, 27 September 2021 02:40 (nine months ago) link

Jays have been like this all season. Just crazy hot and cold. At least the most recent cold streak (which hopefully is done with) they weren’t making ridiculous fielding and base running errors.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 27 September 2021 12:34 (nine months ago) link

Still unbelievable what happened to the Padres pic.twitter.com/mFE8SimPqI

— Brandon Wile (@Brandon_N_Wile) September 27, 2021

mookieproof, Monday, 27 September 2021 16:43 (nine months ago) link

i voted the Padres as well, they have a lot of talent but can't seem to put it together. might even finish under 500, which is sort of mind blowing.

Bee OK, Monday, 27 September 2021 19:00 (nine months ago) link

This has got to be the Padres, unless you're a diehard Yankees fan (assuming the Yanks don't qualify and win the WC game).

NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 27 September 2021 21:09 (nine months ago) link


I have seen this statistic in several places today, and there is no better summation of the 2021 Mets:

No team in Major League history has spent as much time (103 days) in first place and finished with a losing record. The Mets are mathematically guaranteed to become the first.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) September 27, 2021

mookieproof, Monday, 27 September 2021 21:35 (nine months ago) link

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

System, Tuesday, 28 September 2021 00:01 (nine months ago) link

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