2020 awards thread

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it's gonna be weird.

barring catastrophe, AL CY would appear to be bieber. NL CY currently between darvish and degrom (fried has a shot but is missing at least one start with a back issue).

NL MVP tatis. AL MVP . . . i dunno! feel like trout is in the lead, but rendon might actually be more valuable (stats are hating trout's defense this year), tim anderson is in there, etc.

AL ROY: robert vs. lewis down to the wire. NL ROY: cronenworth, i guess, though devin williams will get votes for sheer outlandishness

comeback player: wil myers? andrew heaney?

MOY: charlie montoyo!

mookieproof, Wednesday, 9 September 2020 19:37 (two weeks ago) link

I don’t know any Jays fans that like Montoyo.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 9 September 2020 21:03 (two weeks ago) link

fangraphs had the jays finishing five games under .500; it's all about beating expectations

tbf, they probably won't beat expectations as much as the orioles will

mookieproof, Wednesday, 9 September 2020 21:07 (two weeks ago) link

Betts looks like a good MVP bet too.

clemenza, Thursday, 10 September 2020 00:45 (two weeks ago) link

Ya, that is how it works these days. And I usually dont get into the whole armchair managing act myself, but a lot of the stuff Montoyo does makes no sense to me (fucking sitting Gurriel today for example). I think they’ve been winning despite Montoyo.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 10 September 2020 00:45 (two weeks ago) link

MOY is a dumb award 99% of the time

℺ ☽ ⋠ ⏎ (✖), Thursday, 10 September 2020 00:48 (two weeks ago) link

Ya. Maybe like 3/4 of the time it goes to the lump of flesh managing the best collection players.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 10 September 2020 00:52 (two weeks ago) link

it's a dumb award for sure, but it doesn't generally go to the guys managing the biggest payrolls/best players

anyway fuck you i love charlie montoyo and you're gonna have to do better than 'gurriel got a day off' to slander him in my eyes

mookieproof, Thursday, 10 September 2020 01:34 (two weeks ago) link

comeback player: wil myers?

i don't have a better candidate, but was myers ever "there" to come back from?

Karl Malone, Thursday, 10 September 2020 03:33 (two weeks ago) link

it's a tough one! he used to be decent every other year, then he signed for way too much with the padres and sucked, and now he's slugging .600+ in a month of action. anyway he's now out for three weeks with a broken finger, so i have no clue

mookieproof, Thursday, 10 September 2020 03:57 (two weeks ago) link

'there' is always hard

mookieproof, Thursday, 10 September 2020 03:59 (two weeks ago) link

hosmer would've been a good one before he got hurt

℺ ☽ ⋠ ⏎ (✖), Thursday, 10 September 2020 04:33 (two weeks ago) link

i don't know how these awards work but jason heyward currently has career high avg, obp, slg, and ops

na (NA), Thursday, 10 September 2020 13:18 (two weeks ago) link

oops, i meant hosmer when i wrote wil myers. which is why several of my posts make less sense than usual

mookieproof, Thursday, 10 September 2020 14:28 (two weeks ago) link

hosmer makes more sense, i think, although for it seems like he's in contention for the comeback award every other year.

heyward's a good suggestion too! his hitting made it back to league average last year, and he seems to be crushing it this year

Karl Malone, Thursday, 10 September 2020 15:07 (two weeks ago) link

Isn't Darvish the obvious Comeback Player of the Year? Or would winning the CY rule that out?

clemenza, Thursday, 10 September 2020 17:37 (two weeks ago) link

he really made his comeback between the first and second halves of last season

na (NA), Thursday, 10 September 2020 18:23 (two weeks ago) link

He did have a good second half...Not sure if the voters look at splits, though; I think I'd be inclined to vote for him.

clemenza, Thursday, 10 September 2020 18:44 (two weeks ago) link

he was worth 3.5 bWAR/2.6 fWAR and had a 108 ERA+ in 2019. too good

hosmer, otoh, was legitimately below replacement level last year

mookieproof, Thursday, 10 September 2020 19:04 (two weeks ago) link

Yeah--even looked at without splits, that's too much value for the award.

clemenza, Thursday, 10 September 2020 20:30 (two weeks ago) link

NL MVP tatis.

oddly, he might not even be the best offensive (or defensive!) SS on his team.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Saturday, 19 September 2020 04:54 (five days ago) link

events have taken a hand

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-national-league-mvp-race-is-wide-open

mookieproof, Monday, 21 September 2020 15:07 (three days ago) link

wonder if tatis will lose out bc he's young enough to have plenty more chances to win it moving forward

na (NA), Monday, 21 September 2020 15:58 (three days ago) link

They list the "best player on the best team" rationale for Betts, but they don't mention the "best player on the surprise team" rationale for Tatis.

clemenza, Tuesday, 22 September 2020 00:52 (two days ago) link

you're the guy who likes players to 'finish strong' tho

we only have so many tropes to select from

mookieproof, Tuesday, 22 September 2020 01:12 (two days ago) link

I'd be inclined to vote for Betts myself--just mentioning what seems like an obvious (and parallel) argument to the one they mentioned for Betts.

clemenza, Tuesday, 22 September 2020 02:06 (two days ago) link

And honestly, I'd probably loosen up on the finishing-strong idea (which I do believe in) in a thumbnail season like this one. You've got to start your strong finish about three days into the season.

clemenza, Tuesday, 22 September 2020 02:07 (two days ago) link

always be finishing

brooklyn suicide cult (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 22 September 2020 13:02 (two days ago) link

he still shouldn't beat cronenworth, but devin williams has some bonkers numbers: 25 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 52 K, 0.35 ERA, 1270 ERA+

mookieproof, Wednesday, 23 September 2020 19:33 (yesterday) link

read about him on Fangraphs this week; was unaware

brooklyn suicide cult (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 23 September 2020 19:51 (yesterday) link

Was looking at Corey Seager...I've been thinking Betts for a while, but I'm puzzled as to why Betts has the slightly higher offensive bWAR.

Seager: 14 HR, .321/.374/.611, 164 OPS+, 2.3 oWAR
Betts: 16 HR, .301/.372/.587, 157 OPS+, 2.4 oWAR

They're on the same team, so no park considerations, just positional, and I thought a SS has an edge over a RF there. Betts has 20 more PA. I don't get it.

clemenza, Wednesday, 23 September 2020 20:04 (yesterday) link

i suspect that's just the 20 more PA -- can't think of any other reason

unfortunate that juan soto missed a dozen games -- he leads the majors in OBP/SLG/OPS and is only two points behind freddie for the NL batting title

mookieproof, Wednesday, 23 September 2020 20:17 (yesterday) link

Does bWAR (or oWAR, I guess) take baserunning into consideration?

Sometimes I wish b-r and fangraphs would both put infographics explaining what their WAR takes into account on every stats page

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 23 September 2020 20:45 (yesterday) link

That could just be their logos

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 23 September 2020 20:46 (yesterday) link

unfortunate that juan soto missed a dozen games

― mookieproof, Wednesday, September 23, 2020 1:17 PM (one hour ago)

due to a false positive too which hurts even more.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 23 September 2020 21:29 (yesterday) link

fangraphs now has darvish (69 IP), degrom (63 IP) and corbin burnes (56 IP) tied with 2.6 fWAR. bauer (65 IP) and max fried (55 IP) have the ERAs to join them, but not the FIPs . . . although fried is 7-0 and hasn't allowed a homer(!)

degrom leads in strikeouts and has been better than he was when he won last year. i don't know if the chance to make it three in a row helps or hurts him, though i'd guess the latter.

assuming they all pitch relatively well in their final starts, i'm not sure how one differentiates them. burnes' and fried's fewer innings will probably hurt, but of course in theory they've generated just as much value.

xp yeah soto's about to go on a pujols-like run where he's such a good hitter that his defense barely even matters

mookieproof, Wednesday, 23 September 2020 21:56 (yesterday) link

Does bWAR (or oWAR, I guess) take baserunning into consideration

Clear edge to Betts there, but I just assumed baserunning was part of the calculation for oWAR--offense is run scoring, and it's part of that. (SB/CS, at least; not sure if bases gained/lost on the basepaths figure in.)

clemenza, Wednesday, 23 September 2020 23:44 (yesterday) link

James always had two versions of RC, the SB version and non-SB version, based on a different number of outs. Actually, there were three:

per 25.5 outs: the basic version
per 26.0 outs: SB/CS added
per 27.0 outs: sacrifices, HBP, everything else added

clemenza, Wednesday, 23 September 2020 23:46 (yesterday) link


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