2019 Awards Thread

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Early, I know, but if I post this on the 2018 thread, someone may complain...Yellinger is shaping up to be quite an MVP race. Two HR for Yelich tonight, one for Bellinger, close in many basic categories.

https://www.mlb.com/news/bellinger-yelich-competing-for-triple-crown

clemenza, Tuesday, 6 August 2019 03:58 (three months ago) link

those two are really close in a lot of categories. It's tough to say since Bellinger is really having an insane season but Yelich just keeps hammering the ball. It will really come down to the last couple weeks. There's nobody else who's even close to them.

Trout's closest competition is Bogaerts, I guess. Maybe Bregman. This seems to be a pretty obvious landslide for him.

Verlander ahead of Cole. Looks like Verlander will clear 20 wins too.

Ryu, unless he collapses. In which case it might be Scherzer, if he goes on a hot streak.

omar little, Tuesday, 6 August 2019 05:01 (three months ago) link

Posnanski posted Yelich's totals for the last 162 games today: .339/.431/.713, 38 doubles, 6 triples, 61 homers, 138 runs, 140 RBI, 32 SB...105 XB hits!

I thought Scherzer was a clear pick over Ryu when Scherzer went down, but he's probably fallen behind by now. Trout unanimously (not that he needs it, but Bogarts/Devers splitting votes further ensures that); Verlander right now for sure, but there's still time on that one.

clemenza, Tuesday, 6 August 2019 14:20 (three months ago) link

Ryu just hit the IL, not sure how long he'll be there

jakey mo collier (voodoo chili), Tuesday, 6 August 2019 14:40 (three months ago) link

fWAR

Scherzer 5.6
deGrom 4.6
Strasburg 4.0
Ryu 3.9

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 6 August 2019 14:51 (three months ago) link

FIP

Scherzer 2.08
Ryu 2.84
deGrom 2.85

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 6 August 2019 14:54 (three months ago) link

Ryu seems to be locking down the Cy Young Award, after today he's 12-2 with an ERA of 1.46 -- though he's 9-0 and 0.82 at home.

omar little, Sunday, 11 August 2019 23:40 (three months ago) link

Washington has 46 games left, and Scherzer's throwing a simulated game Tuesday. Which means, what? Deduct another 10 games and he's got 7 or 8 starts left? He'll probably end up ahead in WAR, but still tough if Ryu posts a sub-2.00 ERA with 16 or 17 wins.

clemenza, Monday, 12 August 2019 02:36 (three months ago) link

I mean, I know wins don't matter anymore, but except in extreme cases like deGrom last year--where the low-win guy is clearly and demonstrably the best pitcher in the league--I sense they still count for a little? I don't know--it evolves with each situation.

clemenza, Monday, 12 August 2019 02:41 (three months ago) link

I’m totally still in the camp that Scherzer is capable of winning and Ryu can of course go on a bad streak that would wreck his numbers. But w/Scherzer still out and that Madduxy ERA I think the voters are obv gonna need some reasons to not give it to Ryu.

omar little, Monday, 12 August 2019 02:48 (three months ago) link

Ryu has only 8 IP more than Scherzer even with the missed time.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 12 August 2019 12:00 (three months ago) link

NL rookie race should be interesting between alonso, tatis and soroka

gonna be tough for ppl to look past all of alonso's homers (especially if he ends up leading the league)

mookieproof, Monday, 12 August 2019 13:19 (three months ago) link

Normally--not this year--Bryan Reynolds would have a shot. (The only reason I'm even aware of him is because I clicked on Bo Bichette's draft round this morning--same round as Alonso.) He's actually about even with Alonso in WAR.

clemenza, Tuesday, 13 August 2019 13:12 (three months ago) link

If all four of those guys end up with 5.0+ WAR (all are presently on pace to do so), would that rank with the greatest rookie crops ever for one league? Have to believe that's relatively rare.

clemenza, Tuesday, 13 August 2019 14:19 (three months ago) link

carson kelly and chris paddack and keston hiura have also been good

i guess yordan alvarez is gonna run away with the AL RoY despite not debuting until june 9

mookieproof, Tuesday, 13 August 2019 15:17 (three months ago) link

I guess Play Index could answer the question I posed above--four rookies over 5.0 WAR in one league--but I don't know how to do that.

Here's one round-up of the best rookie classes ever:

https://www.mlb.com/news/best-rookie-classes-in-mlb-since-1947-c295885062

They've got 2015 #1, both leagues. There were five guys over 4.0 that year in total, but only one, Kris Bryant, over 5.0.

clemenza, Tuesday, 13 August 2019 15:32 (three months ago) link

Yordan Alvarez has tied Joe Dimaggio's record for most RBIs through a player's first 46 games (51 RBIs).

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) August 13, 2019

mookieproof, Tuesday, 13 August 2019 20:33 (three months ago) link

speaking of brian reynolds being overlooked/underrated, he has the fourth-highest OBP for the season so far after trout, yelich, and bellinger

na (NA), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:08 (three months ago) link

#1 in batting everage

na (NA), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:09 (three months ago) link

The NL Cy Young looks certain to be between three low-win guys, Scherzer, deGrom, and Ryu. (Strasberg is so manifestly behind them statistically, can't see much support in 2019--he may have a shot at 4th or 5th.) Wouldn't be surprised at all if deGrom wins a second one if he keeps pitching this well through September.

"Low-win guys" (15 or fewer, I'd say) is probably going to be the norm rather than the exception from here on out.

clemenza, Saturday, 24 August 2019 15:56 (three months ago) link

No one is really stepping up to claim that NL Cy right now, Scherzer is getting eased back into things slowly and Ryu has been bad of late. DeGrom could take it again but idk.

omar little, Sunday, 1 September 2019 15:55 (three months ago) link

I’m rooting for Alvarez to win it with less than 81 games played.

Van Horn Street, Sunday, 1 September 2019 20:19 (three months ago) link

JV and Cole had been very close statistically speaking for awhile but this coupled w/Cole’s last start puts him way out in front for the Cy.
― omar little, Sunday, September 1, 2019 3:44 PM (yesterday)

It'd be hard to make a case for Cole today, unless you place an inordinate amount of importance on FIP--Cole still leads by half of run because of Verlander's HR. But they're still close enough that one great start by Cole coupled with one really poor one by Verlander would probably be enough to reverse that.

VHS: Alvarez would be a terrible choice for NL Cy Young.

clemenza, Monday, 2 September 2019 13:29 (three months ago) link

looking fwd to the oldschool freakouts if Mike Minor get any first-place votes

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 2 September 2019 13:57 (three months ago) link

This came up on another thread. According to Baseball Reference, hitters get a 5% advantage in Texas, pitchers a 2% advantage in Houston. And on Fangraphs, the Astros rank 16th defensively, the Rangers 23rd. Having said that...

V: 2.56 ERA, 193 IP, 257 K, 177 ERA+, 3.42 FIP, 0.772 WHIP, 7.34 K/BB, 6.7 WAR
C: 2.85 ERA, 170 IP, 252 K, 159 ERA+, 2.93 FIP, 0.957 WHIP, 6.15 K/BB, 4.7 WAR
M: 3.25 ERA, 174 IP, 175 K, 158 ERA+, 3.95 FIP, 1.205 WHIP, 3.07 K/BB, 7.0 WAR

WAR on Fangraphs: Cole 5.3, Verlander 5.2, Minor 3.9.

Even with adjustments, I find the idea that Minor is the best of those three bizarre.

clemenza, Monday, 2 September 2019 14:48 (three months ago) link

Sorry Clem, I was discussing the (lifeless) AL ROY.

Van Horn Street, Monday, 2 September 2019 17:22 (three months ago) link

Minor shutting out NYY thru 5

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 2 September 2019 21:53 (three months ago) link

Cole has struck out 14 in six innings...which brings to him to 105 pitches, though; not sure what his limit is. He's probably out, one inning more at most.

clemenza, Monday, 2 September 2019 22:23 (three months ago) link

Verlander pitches well yesterday and wins, Cole--through 7 innings--working on a one-hitter with 13 strikeouts today.

clemenza, Sunday, 8 September 2019 20:29 (two months ago) link

Verlander and Cole back-to-back is looking like some real Johnson-Schilling shit

omar little, Monday, 9 September 2019 00:58 (two months ago) link

Has anyone ever reached 300 Ks before they reached 200 IP? Cole has 281 strikeouts in 184.1 IP...

omar little, Monday, 9 September 2019 01:13 (two months ago) link

If I still had my baseball reference subscription I’d search for single seasons where a SP had a 13.5 K per 9 rate or higher. Alas...

I am also Harl (Karl Malone), Monday, 9 September 2019 01:16 (two months ago) link

you don't need a subscription (Cole's alone)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/strikeouts_per_nine_season.shtml

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 9 September 2019 01:26 (two months ago) link

actually Randy Johnson got to 300+ before he hit 200 IP in 2001 (the season he struck out 372 in 249.2 IP)

omar little, Monday, 9 September 2019 01:27 (two months ago) link

Pedro came close in '99 (313 K in 213.1 IP for the year), but looking at his game logs, I think he just missed. Ryan was never even close to a 100+ K/IP margin, so pretty sure no for him.

clemenza, Monday, 9 September 2019 15:56 (two months ago) link

100 K/IP, now that would be a record

k3vin k., Wednesday, 11 September 2019 09:53 (two months ago) link

I know you're kidding...I should have rendered that as +100 IP-K.

clemenza, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 12:25 (two months ago) link

Even better: +100 K-IP.

clemenza, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 12:26 (two months ago) link

btw deGrom is clearly the Mets' MVP, and trails only Bellinger, Yelich and Marte among all NL players (due in part to his batting value).

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 12 September 2019 11:44 (two months ago) link

Scherzer and Ryu are both taking themselves out of the running lately. I'm thinking DeGrom might repeat.

omar little, Saturday, 14 September 2019 03:25 (two months ago) link

I'll have to compare tomorrow, but in the AL, I thought Verlander and Cole were close enough that one start by each could reorder them. And that's exactly what has happened--so-so start by Verlander yesterday, another dominant performance by Cole today. I think Cole might have overtaken him for the moment.

clemenza, Saturday, 14 September 2019 03:32 (two months ago) link

Cole has been so good lately, it does seem like he's finishing very strong and Verlander may just be finishing "well".

omar little, Saturday, 14 September 2019 03:59 (two months ago) link

degrom's having another great season but i think this is scherzer's to lose

Sally Jessy (Karl Malone), Saturday, 14 September 2019 04:04 (two months ago) link

I think you're going to see two of the closest Cy votes ever (certainly in a single season).

clemenza, Saturday, 14 September 2019 16:22 (two months ago) link

Scrolled through, and I only found one year where both winners were under an 80% share of the vote: 1973. Palmer beat Ryan 88-62 (14 first-place votes to 9...Blyleven ahead in WAR by 2-3 wins; think I had an epic argument about that one once), Seaver beat Marshall 71-54 (10 first-place votes to 9...Seaver was ahead in WAR 10.6 to 3.0!). Anyway, both leagues should be even closer this year. With Verlander-Cole, they're so close you either flip a coin or delve into Game Scores and strength-of-opposition.

clemenza, Saturday, 14 September 2019 17:29 (two months ago) link

When Alvarez pulls the ball in the air, he bats .868 with a 2.421 slugging percentage.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/youre-probably-underrating-yordan-alvarez

mookieproof, Monday, 16 September 2019 14:40 (two months ago) link

I don't know who votes in these mlb.com polls, but they've got Verlander still way ahead of Cole.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cy-young-poll-close-between-degrom-scherzer

That doesn't seem right; they ought to be very close.

clemenza, Tuesday, 17 September 2019 22:10 (two months ago) link

Verlander has that Pedro-like WHIP, plus the WAR lead. And the wins lead, if you wanna kick it old-school.

omar little, Tuesday, 17 September 2019 23:02 (two months ago) link

i think one more "decent" JV start coupled with another otherworldly Cole start, plus him hitting 300 ks, might nudge him out in front.

omar little, Tuesday, 17 September 2019 23:03 (two months ago) link

Great six innings from Verlander last night. We'll see how Cole responds--back and forth. They're definitely up with (though not equal to, I don't think) Johnson/Schilling right now.

clemenza, Wednesday, 18 September 2019 12:41 (two months ago) link

I thought that was only a thing in OOTP baseball! Obviously I need to watch a few dodger playoff games

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 2 October 2019 00:54 (two months ago) link

two weeks pass...

Players selected Gerrit Cole, Lucas Giolito and Justin Verlander as finalists in the American League and Hyun-Jin Ryu, Mike Soroka and Jacob deGrom in the National League in voting for Outstanding Pitcher honors in the 2019 Players Choice Awards.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) October 16, 2019

maxless

mookieproof, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 20:10 (one month ago) link

not necessarily surprised at no Max, but somewhat surprised that Strasburg or Flaherty didn't wind up in his spot.

omar little, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 20:13 (one month ago) link

how do we justify Soroka over Strasburg and Max?

Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 20:27 (one month ago) link

MLB jocks

they aint too smaaaaaht

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 20:31 (one month ago) link

giolito and soroka seem like 'good narrative' picks, although they could also have gone with minor or lance lynn

mookieproof, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 20:35 (one month ago) link

I didn't know Tom Tango had a formula to predict Cy Young winners: (IP/2 - ER) + SO/10 + W. Couldn't be simpler. Even there, still a toss-up, but he does give Cole a slight edge.

Cole -- 99.8
Verlander -- 98.5

clemenza, Thursday, 17 October 2019 00:46 (one month ago) link

Do you mean subtract the walks?

timellison, Thursday, 17 October 2019 01:16 (one month ago) link

I cut-and-paste that from Tango's site...you would think so, yeah.

clemenza, Thursday, 17 October 2019 01:18 (one month ago) link

Wait a minute: W = wins. As Tango says, he's trying to predict the winner, not determine who deserves the award, and by his estimation, wins still carry a little weight--about 10% of the total in his formula. Here's what led me to the formula:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/youll_ryu_the_day/

One of the things I like about the formula is that, although it doesn’t weigh wins as heavily as other formulas ( which certainly reflects the trend in voter preferences), it doesn’t entirely dismiss them either. It recognizes that wins still carry some weight with some of the voters, and can help sway some votes if pitchers are close in other regards. I think that’s reasonable – clearly wins don’t mean as much as they used to in winning the Cy Young Award, but they do still mean something. deGrom was able to win the award in 2018 despite a modest win total because his ERA was light years better than everyone else’s, but if it was closer, you can bet that his lack of wins would likely have become a bigger factor.

clemenza, Thursday, 17 October 2019 01:23 (one month ago) link

i'm sure noted hockey fan tom tango is just having fun with stats but we could also . . . just wait for the results

mookieproof, Thursday, 17 October 2019 02:14 (one month ago) link

On Monday, MLB announced the six candidates for AL and NL Comeback Player of the Year. The list includes Lucas Giolito, Hunter Pence and Jorge Soler in the AL and Josh Donaldson, Sonny Gray and Hyun-Jin Ryu in the NL.

earlnash, Thursday, 17 October 2019 11:55 (one month ago) link

i'll take giolito and gray

mookieproof, Thursday, 17 October 2019 14:41 (one month ago) link

don't you have to have arrived in order to come back? i'd disqualify giolito and soler on those grounds, so it would be pence in the AL.

It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 17 October 2019 14:51 (one month ago) link

Pence's story has some teeth, finally coming home after all these years and having an incredible first half. He sort of checked out in the 2nd half but made a big enough dent for the BBWAA to recognize.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 17 October 2019 16:11 (one month ago) link

Players selected Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman and Mike Trout as finalists in the American League and Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger and Anthony Rendon in the National League in voting for Outstanding Player honors in the 2019 Players Choice Awards.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) October 17, 2019

mookieproof, Thursday, 17 October 2019 19:11 (one month ago) link

Pretty much 6/6 if pitchers are excluded...I suppose there might be another choice as valid as Devers.

clemenza, Thursday, 17 October 2019 23:00 (one month ago) link

Marcus Semien

timellison, Thursday, 17 October 2019 23:18 (one month ago) link

Forgot about him--a better choice.

clemenza, Thursday, 17 October 2019 23:22 (one month ago) link

mike trout and christian yelich have won the 2019 hank aaron awards as Most Outstanding Offensive Performer in their leagues

mookieproof, Wednesday, 23 October 2019 20:16 (one month ago) link

carlos carrasco = roberto clemente award

mookieproof, Friday, 25 October 2019 18:09 (one month ago) link

racist josh header, abuser aroldis chapman named relievers of the year

mookieproof, Saturday, 26 October 2019 20:56 (one month ago) link

Is he still a racist ?

Van Horn Street, Sunday, 27 October 2019 02:18 (one month ago) link

is he still an abuser ?

mookieproof, Sunday, 27 October 2019 05:00 (one month ago) link

It was funny to see these two get honoured during the WS, seeing as both Washington and Houston reached the WS because of their respective screw-ups.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 27 October 2019 07:38 (one month ago) link

Xp I don’t know, I live with the certainly naive hope that people can grow out of racist ideology. Abuse I don’t see it the same way.

Van Horn Street, Monday, 28 October 2019 02:03 (one month ago) link

fielding bible awards: http://fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

mookieproof, Thursday, 31 October 2019 20:15 (one month ago) link

What’s with Joe voting Cain the 7th best CF? Come on, Joe

It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 31 October 2019 20:41 (one month ago) link

James: "74% of you think that Trout SHOULD win the MVP, 53% think that he will. FWIW, I'd probably vote for Semien. I think that the argument that Trout should win because he is the best player in baseball is a legitimate argument, but that there are other approaches which are also valid."

Bregman, Trout, and Semien are only separated by 0.3 in bWAR, but that's still an odd choice that could use some explanation.

clemenza, Wednesday, 6 November 2019 22:26 (four weeks ago) link

depends on one's assessment of their defensive values, it would seem

mookieproof, Wednesday, 6 November 2019 22:50 (four weeks ago) link

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIyG74rVAAE2Usa?format=png&name=small

mookieproof, Thursday, 7 November 2019 16:21 (four weeks ago) link

the astros were an average defensive team, weird

k3vin k., Thursday, 7 November 2019 18:39 (four weeks ago) link

Cy Young winners through the prism of analytics:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/back_to_the_future_part_4/

When I was new here, I had an epic argument with SF Alex over the '73 AL Cy Young (short version: I said there was at least a case for Palmer, Alex said open-and-shut for Blyleven). Daniel Marks says neither.

clemenza, Friday, 8 November 2019 00:58 (three weeks ago) link

Actually, through the prism of Tom Tango's CY formula.

clemenza, Friday, 8 November 2019 00:59 (three weeks ago) link

Both MOY votes were really close, for the first time in many years (I think)? Four or five managers in each league had legit cases for winning too.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 13 November 2019 06:36 (three weeks ago) link

DeGrom wins the NL Cy Young, 29 out of 30 first place votes.

omar little, Wednesday, 13 November 2019 23:39 (three weeks ago) link

Ryu gets the other

omar little, Wednesday, 13 November 2019 23:39 (three weeks ago) link

Verlander wins in the AL, 17 first place to Cole's 13.

omar little, Wednesday, 13 November 2019 23:52 (three weeks ago) link

Cole wuz robbed!

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 14 November 2019 02:22 (three weeks ago) link

Cole and Verlander had all the first place and all the second place votes. I'm assuming it's the first time that's happened.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 14 November 2019 06:43 (three weeks ago) link

Don't know if they got it right, but I thought Verlander-Cole was every bit as close as it should have been. (And the NL vote was every bit as not-close as it should have been.)

clemenza, Thursday, 14 November 2019 17:50 (three weeks ago) link

Cole and Verlander had all the first place and all the second place votes. I'm assuming it's the first time that's happened.

i don't know of a counter-example off-hand, but that seems like it has to have happened before. pretty much anytime 2 pitchers stand head and shoulders above the rest of the league, right?

Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Thursday, 14 November 2019 17:53 (three weeks ago) link

i feel like it would have happened w/Johnson and Schilling, maybe, but i only found the 2002 results thus far and Johnson was unanimous #1 and Schilling won almost all the second place votes but several guys threw votes to Smoltz and Gagne (lol), they were so dominant mowing down a couple of batters twice a week or so that year.

omar little, Thursday, 14 November 2019 18:35 (three weeks ago) link

Cole and Verlander had all the first place and all the second place votes

see also trout and bregman

mookieproof, Friday, 15 November 2019 02:42 (two weeks ago) link

I figured NTBT was talking about teammates

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 15 November 2019 02:46 (two weeks ago) link

oic

mookieproof, Friday, 15 November 2019 02:54 (two weeks ago) link

Good laugh at the 6 writers who gave LeMahieu the third place over Semien.

Van Horn Street, Friday, 15 November 2019 05:23 (two weeks ago) link

Actually I wasn't talking about teammates. But considering it happened again the very next day, maybe it isn't so rare?

Usually there's one near consensus pick or a few really good candidates and a highly split vote, no? I thought that two consensus candidates would be extremely rare.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 15 November 2019 12:09 (two weeks ago) link

maybe with the "numbers revolution" blah blah blah voters are becoming "more informed" (or something) thus there being less variance in their choices

brimstead, Friday, 15 November 2019 19:32 (two weeks ago) link


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