When will Machado and Harper sign?

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Pitchers and catchers report this week, but the top two free agents are still unsigned. The rumour mill has picked up again over the last couple of days (Giants interested in Harper, Yankees getting back into the bidding for Machado), which gives me the feeling that something is about to happen, but who knows these days.

I'm asking about the date in which both have signed, e.g. if Harper signs tomorrow and Machado on March 1st, then answer March 1st.

Poll Results

OptionVotes
February 24-March 1 4
February 19-23 (the 23rd is the first day with a full slate of spring training games) 3
March 15-28 (Opening Day is the 28th) 2
After March 28 2
February 12-15 1
February 16-18 (the 18th is the first day of full workouts for most MLB teams) 1
February 11 (tomorrow) 0
March 1-15 0


NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 10 February 2019 19:44 (two months ago) Permalink

There are some overlapping days on those last three options. Oh well, do your best to choose anyway.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 10 February 2019 19:46 (two months ago) Permalink

i figure once spring training is set to start one, or both will take the best deal on the table (Harper to Giants) (Machado, i dunno, fuck him).

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 10 February 2019 21:07 (two months ago) Permalink

Just barely skimmed this.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-put-bryce-harper-and-manny-machado-on-a-bunch-of-different-teams/

clemenza, Sunday, 10 February 2019 23:23 (two months ago) Permalink

Rosenthal in The Athletic says neither wants to sign first and "set the market."

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 11 February 2019 15:35 (two months ago) Permalink

Just voted February 24-March 1.

Can't believe the Giants are in the running for Harper.

Bee OK, Wednesday, 13 February 2019 02:20 (two months ago) Permalink

apparently not? he said he doesn't want a short term deal, which is what i think they were going for.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 13 February 2019 02:33 (two months ago) Permalink

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

System, Thursday, 14 February 2019 00:01 (two months ago) Permalink

voted February 11 (tomorrow)

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 14 February 2019 01:23 (two months ago) Permalink

i'm gonna be pessimistic and predict that at least one of them will sign after the season starts

Karl Malone, Thursday, 14 February 2019 01:48 (two months ago) Permalink

i wish they'd just do it already i've been seeing articles linking them to teams for it feels like months & months now

Mordy, Thursday, 14 February 2019 02:35 (two months ago) Permalink

you'd like the phillies to just sign them already?

mookieproof, Thursday, 14 February 2019 02:53 (two months ago) Permalink

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

System, Friday, 15 February 2019 00:01 (two months ago) Permalink

For what it’s worth, my source who is close to Bryce Harper tells me #Dodgers and #Cubs were 1st choices all along and he prefers not to sign with #Phillies. I’ve been hearing all winter that Harper does not want to play for Gabe Kapler due to analytics and quirky personality

— Randy Miller (@RandyJMiller) February 26, 2019

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 27 February 2019 22:56 (one month ago) Permalink

Harper is really going to have fun when he goes back to Philly after this one dodging all of the chucked batteries.

earlnash, Thursday, 28 February 2019 02:51 (one month ago) Permalink

Harper does not want to play for Gabe Kapler due to analytics

makes sense..for Harper

Karl Malone, Thursday, 28 February 2019 03:22 (one month ago) Permalink

hahaha

k3vin k., Thursday, 28 February 2019 03:29 (one month ago) Permalink

The Giants have a better shot at signing Harper if the Bums don't match the years. Stir see him as a Phillies when all is said and done

Bee OK, Thursday, 28 February 2019 04:42 (one month ago) Permalink

Breaking: Bryce to the Phillies

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 28, 2019

mookieproof, Thursday, 28 February 2019 19:51 (one month ago) Permalink

325 mil

reggae mike love (polyphonic), Thursday, 28 February 2019 19:56 (one month ago) Permalink

Harper gets 330M

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 28, 2019

reggae mike love (polyphonic), Thursday, 28 February 2019 19:58 (one month ago) Permalink

13 years, no opt-outs

mookieproof, Thursday, 28 February 2019 19:59 (one month ago) Permalink

yowza

Rhine Jive Click Bait (Hadrian VIII), Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:00 (one month ago) Permalink

13 years!!

reggae mike love (polyphonic), Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:07 (one month ago) Permalink

full no-trade clause, no deferred money

mookieproof, Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:08 (one month ago) Permalink

the new pujols

Karl Malone, Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:13 (one month ago) Permalink

I assume he won't decline in production immediately like Pujols

brimstead, Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:15 (one month ago) Permalink

but yeah same effect in that the last (possibly several) years will be "agggggggggh

brimstead, Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:17 (one month ago) Permalink

wow just brutal. why hasnt the league worked to put a cap on contract years?

but I can't let Trae do it I got Huerter on my mind (Spottie), Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:21 (one month ago) Permalink

13 years of Phillies fan heckling you is a direct path to Sainthood imo

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:24 (one month ago) Permalink

good job thread! wish i could remember what i voted for, p sure i was one of the wrong ones. i wanna say i picked 19-23

they're not booing you, sir, they're shouting "Boo'd Up" (Will M.), Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:24 (one month ago) Permalink

I assume he won't decline in production immediately like Pujols

― brimstead, Thursday, February 28, 2019 2:15 PM (twelve minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

but yeah same effect in that the last (possibly several) years will be "agggggggggh

― brimstead, Thursday, February 28, 2019 2:17 PM (ten minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah, for sure. i also expect that he'll be really good for at least a handful of years to come, hopefully more (i like watching him play).

but of course, at any point he could get a bad injury and immediately become an albatross. 13 years for anyone is ridiculous, even mike trout

Karl Malone, Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:29 (one month ago) Permalink

the 13 years isn't really that important -- i imagine it's mostly to keep the average annual value down and avoid the luxury tax. if he ultimately turns into pujols they can cut him; the money's already been spent

mookieproof, Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:30 (one month ago) Permalink

AAV is only a little over $25m, which is nowhere near a record

mookieproof, Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:31 (one month ago) Permalink

He declined higher AAV, if I understand correctly. I think he cared a lot about the years and amount, to get the record contract.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:33 (one month ago) Permalink

such a waste

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:33 (one month ago) Permalink

they could cut him yeah...but the angels haven't cut pujols. when old man harper is putting up -36.1 DEF and hitting 24 HRs with an OBP of .290, he'll also probably be nearing a big round number of HRs or hits

xp

Karl Malone, Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:34 (one month ago) Permalink

Anyone, congrats to Harper, the third most valuable player on the Nationals, on becoming the third most valuable player on the Phillies.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:34 (one month ago) Permalink

phillies remain almost $50m under the luxury tax for this season

mookieproof, Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:36 (one month ago) Permalink

Also worth noting that #Mets took on Cano because they believe a DH is coming to the NL at some point soon. I am sure this is in the calculus for the #Phillies giving 13 yrs to Harper

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) February 28, 2019

mookieproof, Thursday, 28 February 2019 20:37 (one month ago) Permalink

The news of Harper's agreement has infiltrated the visitors clubhouse at Champion Stadium. "Why would you want to play that long?" one Tiger said. "This game sucks."

— Anthony Fenech (@anthonyfenech) February 28, 2019

mookieproof, Thursday, 28 February 2019 21:10 (one month ago) Permalink

If it's true that he turned down 10Y/300M from the Nats months ago, then this holdout only netted him an extra 3Y/30M. Either he was confident he'd get a $400M deal or he really wanted to leave Washington.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 28 February 2019 21:14 (one month ago) Permalink

OTOH, having three sub-1.5 WAR seasons in the past five years is somehow worth $330M. Free agency is less dead than I thought.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 28 February 2019 21:22 (one month ago) Permalink

Alex Rodriguez’s inflation-adjusted AAV on his 2001 deal equaled $59.2 mil. 2001 Derek Jeter deal was $44.4 mil. 2001 Manny Ramirez deal was $47.0 mil. 2002 Jason Giambi was $39.4 mil (per FanGraphs).

Major League Baseball’s inflation-adjusted revenue in 2001 was $5.09 billion. Major League Baseball’s revenue exceeded $10 billion in 2018.

Revenue has soared. The big-time players that play a big-time role in this revenue increase aren’t getting their fair share of pay for it. And the owners collectively are the ones responsible.

mookieproof, Thursday, 28 February 2019 21:24 (one month ago) Permalink

i can't believe he got a worse contract than stanton

J0rdan S., Thursday, 28 February 2019 21:34 (one month ago) Permalink

OTOH, having three sub-1.5 WAR seasons in the past five years is somehow worth $330M.

fwiw, by fangraphs it's:

2014: 1.6 WAR (in 100 games)
2015: 9.3
2016: 3.0
2017: 4.8 (in 111 games)
2018: 3.5

Karl Malone, Thursday, 28 February 2019 21:35 (one month ago) Permalink

Plus it's not only player values in WAR, it's also that Harper will sell more jersey than probably any player in the league.

but Mookie otm on the owners.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 28 February 2019 21:41 (one month ago) Permalink

Alex Rodriguez’s inflation-adjusted AAV on his 2001 deal equaled $59.2 mil. 2001 Derek Jeter deal was $44.4 mil. 2001 Manny Ramirez deal was $47.0 mil. 2002 Jason Giambi was $39.4 mil (per FanGraphs).
Major League Baseball’s inflation-adjusted revenue in 2001 was $5.09 billion. Major League Baseball’s revenue exceeded $10 billion in 2018.

Revenue has soared. The big-time players that play a big-time role in this revenue increase aren’t getting their fair share of pay for it. And the owners collectively are the ones responsible.

― mookieproof, Thursday, February 28, 2019 4:24 PM (seventeen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

is this a bad thing? is this true for the average player as wel, or just the “1%”? give how disastrous most of these mega-deals been, I’m not sure that giving guys deals that pay them 30-35% of their teams payroll is in anyone’s best interest except those players

k3vin k., Thursday, 28 February 2019 21:51 (one month ago) Permalink

i'm not particularly bothered by harper's AAV being (adjusted) half that of a-rod's first deal. (and a-rod was totally worth that money!) he'll be more than fine, obviously.

the difference just points out that the players are making less and the owners are keeping ever more while simultaneously crying that they're too poor to compete

mookieproof, Thursday, 28 February 2019 22:18 (one month ago) Permalink

I honestly don’t know, so I’m asking: are the owners keeping a larger share, or is the player money just more evenly distributed? I mean these things are set by th me CBA, right?

k3vin k., Thursday, 28 February 2019 22:21 (one month ago) Permalink

extremely rude of bryce to stay in the NL east regardless

moose; squirrel (silby), Friday, 1 March 2019 00:09 (one month ago) Permalink

thx for the link mookie

I don’t know enough about the MLB’s CBA...in the NBA for example the way the revenues are split are defined by the CBA, is that not the case with the MLB? another interesting thing is that the league as a whole has been trending younger lately, and given how poorly young players are paid relative to veterans, plus the recent reluctance to give out big money deals to older guys, it makes sense I guess that player share of revenue would be declining. seems like this is something the players will be interested in addressing when the new CBA is negotiated in a few years

k3vin k., Friday, 1 March 2019 03:58 (one month ago) Permalink

this is definitely a contract signed by someone who believes he's going to play baseball for the phillies for the next 13 years.

call all destroyer, Friday, 1 March 2019 04:30 (one month ago) Permalink

They said on the radio that Philadelphia's park is a good for left-handed hitters. Looked up Harper, and in a 208-AB sample he's done well there: 14 HR, .564 SLG. Which I'm sure counted for absolutely nothing, but I naively believe players should be more attentive to such things than they are--at the very least, avoid somewhere that's going to hurt you.

clemenza, Friday, 1 March 2019 05:57 (one month ago) Permalink

oh, i definitely think that counted for something. he's the ballpark's all-time slugging leader (min. 200 PA); everyone wants to be in a position to succeed

mookieproof, Friday, 1 March 2019 06:06 (one month ago) Permalink

They said on the radio that Philadelphia's park is a good for left-handed hitters.

This seems to suggest otherwise?

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2556390

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 1 March 2019 06:13 (one month ago) Permalink

yeah, that's some good sleuthing, albert. not just 2018, either - it's been one of the lowest ranked for LHB for several years running now

Karl Malone, Friday, 1 March 2019 06:18 (one month ago) Permalink

It was the other day on the call-in show--not sure who they had on there, somebody from ESPN or something. I feel violated; I expect my experts to supply me with solid, factual information that I can then pass off as my own.

At least the information's out there nowadays if the players want to use it. I remember in an early Abstract, James ridiculing Fred Lynn for explaining how he was going to hit better in California than he'd hit in Fenway for this, that, and the other reason. (For his career, Lynn was .347/.420/.601 in Fenway--I expect that was even better limited to when he played for the Red Sox). He sincerely believed that.

clemenza, Friday, 1 March 2019 12:21 (one month ago) Permalink

I expect my experts to supply me with solid, factual information

this is why we have Jersey Al

mookieproof, Friday, 1 March 2019 15:12 (one month ago) Permalink

If Lindor posts an MVP-type season this year, is he going to replace Harper, Machado, and Arenado at the top of the money list? He'll be 26. (Recovering from a muscle strain right now, so will miss part of April.)

clemenza, Saturday, 2 March 2019 16:56 (one month ago) Permalink

(Until Mike Trout signs for his own country, that is.)

clemenza, Saturday, 2 March 2019 16:57 (one month ago) Permalink


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