Got looking at the all time HR list checking out the actives in the list.
Pujols is definitely going to keep playing with that much cash on the table, he is 27 shy of Willie Mays for 5th all time. I don't know if he will catch him, he has been toast for good while now.
With Adrian Beltre retiring, Miggy Cabrera is next to potentially get to 500 HRs. Cabrera will be 36 next year and 35 shy of 500. Got to wonder how healthy he will stay going forward, he's at that age where he could just continue to fall apart too.
The next active player on the list's totals I thought were really interesting. Nelson Cruz will be 38 next year and he is at 360 HRs with all but 22 from age 28. Good chemicals or hard work or not, the guy has hit some homers in Seattle and that place is a cavern.
― earlnash, Sunday, 2 December 2018 01:55 (two years ago) link
After Cabrera, Encarnacion might get to 500 (380 at 35--looking doubtful, but he's got two years on Cruz and 20 more HR), and then you have to go down the list to Stanton (305 at 28--2023?) and Trout (240 at 26--2025?).
― clemenza, Sunday, 2 December 2018 17:25 (two years ago) link
Coinciding with the complete lack of interest in pitcher wins anymore, I think I'm ready to agree with the old saw--for a long time simply not true--that you may not see another unless the game fundamentally changes. I thought Kershaw was a good bet three or four years ago, but with 153 at 30 and very dicey health, looks unlikely. The other best pitchers in the game have either zero chance--Kluber (32, 96)--or close to zero: Verlander has 204 at 35, Scherzer 159 at 33, Sale 103 at 29. They'd each have to average around 20 a year until 40.
― clemenza, Sunday, 2 December 2018 17:36 (two years ago) link
("another 300-game winner," as I'm sure you figured out)
― clemenza, Sunday, 2 December 2018 18:42 (two years ago) link
A record that has amazingly stood up is Reggie's 2,597 strikeouts. With guys routinely striking out 200+ times a year, that's only about 12-13 years of league-leading performance. Thome almost broke it (ended up 50 short); the third-place guy, Dunn, was out of the league at 34, otherwise he would have (200 short). So you have to be good enough that the strikeouts don't lose you your job; Thome was, Dunn wasn't. Stanton looks like a good bet to finally break it. He's got 1,351 at age 28, and he averages about 180-190 for a full season. If he remains healthy, that's about seven more seasons.
― clemenza, Sunday, 2 December 2018 18:50 (two years ago) link
Actually, Justin Upton may get there first.
― clemenza, Sunday, 2 December 2018 18:52 (two years ago) link
As noted above, Cabrera may get to 500 HR this year (35 shy), but he'll probably need two seasons; he may get to 3,000 hits next year (324 shy), but he'll probably need three for that.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 15 January 2019 01:15 (two years ago) link
I was thinking that if you were to give Stanton 90 HR for 2019/20 (instead of the 7 he actually hit), he'd end his age-31 season with ~440 HR, and would have at least an outside shot at catching Bonds.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 29 September 2021 16:10 (three weeks ago) link
Actually, that's way too many, unless you make COVID disappear too--forgot they only played 60 games last year.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 29 September 2021 16:11 (three weeks ago) link