hot stove 2018-19

The Athletic, OTOH, is garbage.

all the good baseball writers disappearing behind a paywall, cept for Fangraphs holdouts

pittsburgh's own neil walker to the marlins (one year/$2m)

freddie galvis to the jays (one year/$4m)

The Nationals hired Jack McKeon as a (very) senior adviser.

Jimmy Rollins is returning to the Phillies as a special adviser.

Jenrry Mejia agreed to a minor league deal with the Red Sox.

https://deadspin.com/mlbs-luxury-tax-became-a-salary-cap-because-of-decades-1832200596

wade miley to the astros for a year

Normandin is way off in his reasoning there, the problem has little to do with the tax threshold. For the first fifteen years or so, only the Yankees paid any luxury tax and only a handful of other teams have since then. Most teams are so far under the threshold that it doesn't affect their decision making at all. Analytics have shown exactly how overpaid most free agents are, and how to find talent more efficiently through other means. This has completely upended the unwritten salary structure that's been entrenched over the past thirty years of labour agreements, and the strike to correct it is going to be really, really ugly I'm afraid. (if the players choose to go that route)

dunno how to read into Miley's surprisingly fine 2018 season (only 80 IP, but still), especially given how cooked he looked on the Orioles, but 4.5m seems like a good deal

rumours

When I checked on this, I did not get the same information Hunter did. https://t.co/M4uGTRTDFk

— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) February 1, 2019

as a perpetual 15-year-old, i don't know if i trust this 12-year-old with this rumour

https://i.imgur.com/8IsFZIn.png

Gio Gonzalez is apparently on the Mets’ radar.

Player movement is at its lowest since the mid '90s.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/roster-movement-is-decreasing-and-teams-are-becoming-more-homogeneous/

curtis granderson minor-league deal with the marlins

The Atlantic League's Sugar Land Skeeters have signed 1B/LHP James Loney (not a typo). Plan is to have him pitch and hit as a two-way player for the Skeeters. Loney was considered by many scouts to be a better P prospect than hitter in HS (back in '02).

— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) February 5, 2019

so are harper and machado (and keuchel) going to end up missing some of spring training? this shit is lame

nothing really new here, but a look at the granderson signing vis-a-vis the free-agency crisis:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/46963/transaction-analysis-curtis-grandersons-nri-and-baseballs-problem

I'm perfectly fine with teams waiting the market out on these guys...hard to get up in arms about Manny Machado having to wait out the winter *only* to pull down a couple hundred million dollars

this isn't exactly Curt Flood territory

Harper's thing is taking awhile because they want that monstrous contract and there are real questions about what Harper will bring to the table, he's had exactly 1 1/2 full seasons where he was worthy of such a deal. i don't doubt he would likely come through with some massive numbers but the days when people would seriously put him on par with Mike Trout have been over since sometime in 2016.

i really want to see him put up 2015 numbers for ten straight years going forward but he could also just be a very expensive version of Grady Sizemore.

And Machado isn't A-Rod or anything. I mean neither of these guys have shown the exceptional consistency you'd want when giving a guy a monster deal (and i mean even prior consistency didn't work out with Pujols...)

idk what these guys have been offered or what they may have turned down, but machado (whom i personally dislike) is a 26yo shortstop who hits 35 homers a year and might have had three top-five MVP finishes in the last four seasons had he played 2018 in one league. he's not a-rod, but he's *extremely* good, and MLB revenue has gone from $4B to $10B a year since a-rod signed his deal. if you gave machado a ten-year deal right now, he'd be robinson cano's current age at the end of it, and cano put up 3 WAR in 80 games last year

flags don't fly for financial efficiency, and as a fan i'm not sure why anyone should be excited because the owner saved money -- unless they're using the saved money on other good players, which they simply aren't

The 1/3 of clubs who are tanking aren't. But between their four free agent signings and the Paxton contract NYY spent $43 million this winter. You can certainly argue that with their revenue they shouldn't hesitate to go over the LT threshold...but so long as they choose to a Machado signing would seem to preclude acquiring those other players.

I just don't buy that there is anything remotely like collusion going on....advanced metrics have probably forever altered player valuation w/ greater weight given to roles like super-utility and middle relief. And why pay for the albatross years 8-9-10 on any contract considering the risk?

ftr I’d sign Machado before Harper, he has been more consistent and certainly less prone to injury.

One thing about Machado is that a lot of his value is in his defense and the metrics seem pretty sure that he's an all-world 3b and a basically average shortstop. Machado has insisted that SS is his position and if he holds to that, I think he goes from being a perennial MVP contender to being more on the "consistently very good" side.

sounds like realmuto to philly is approaching. jorge alfaro/sixto sanchez/others in return

is that too much? feels like too much. by a bunch.

i don't really think so?

two more years of control with JT?

realmuto is a clear step up from alfaro (and financially reasonable). sanchez might turn out to be good -- he's been solid in leagues he's way young for -- but he's also small by starter standards and simply hasn't pitched much due to injuries. supposedly the phillies are unhappy with his conditioning (?)

mets re-sign punxsutawney, pa native devin mesoraco to a minor league deal

ya, i'd misread the mlbtr story as the Marlins getting a whole pile of names back (they were just spitballing about who else could be involved). Alfaro/Sixto/throw-in is a solid deal for both, if that's what it winds up being.

https://media.giphy.com/media/l2SpZsWedp4ql8I00/giphy.gif

to texas on a minor league deal

noted weird guy brett lawrie to the brewers on a minor league deal!

Is it just me or are Nola and Severino's deals almost comically team friendly? I really don't get it from a player perspective -- why sign a "long term" with a far below market value AAV that also buys out just one free agent year? The money AND the security are low.

because the system is broken, and they've at least locked in being set for life

Signing for 1Y/$10M would also be enough to set a lot of people up for life. If their arms fall off tomorrow then it's a good deal for the players. But the next worst case is ... maybe hitting free agency and having to settle for far less than the $100M deal you hoped for, like Arrieta did? And in that time they'd make close to the same total salary that they're making now, realistically.

The system is broken all right -- way worse than I thought.

Mark Reynolds, who just signed with the #Rockies a few days before camp, told a free-agent tale today I’ve heard a lot. Got no offers for weeks. Then was playing golf a couple of weeks ago, got a call from his agent and had 4 teams offering minor league deals on the same day.

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) February 17, 2019

Owners would be that dumb to leave all the traces necessary for the existence collusion to be proven beyond reasonable doubt.

it seems pretty farfetched that teams would bother colluding on minor league deals for mark reynolds. but it's also strange

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26019145/third-baseman-mike-moustakas-returning-brewers

I forgot that Moustakas rejected the $17.4M qualifying offer two offseasons ago. Now he'll make less than $17M combined in 2018-2019.

Last offseason, rather.

they also picked up Brett Lawrie on a minor-league deal, which is surprising because I had no idea he was still playing - seems like a longshot given his mysterious quad injury and the fact that the dude can't hit breaking balls, but taking fliers on dudes like this is what Milwaukee does now. sad to think he was Milwaukee's blue-chip prospect once upon a time.

what's surprising to me is that Lawrie was better than i remembered, he put up a 15.1 bWAR in what amounted to a little more than 3 1/2 full seasons (588 games played over 6 years).

MACHADO to PADRES

LET'S GOOOOO

hope he's better than kemp was

10 years, $300m, no word on opt-outs

huh!

was still holding out a shred of hope he'd sign with the white sox but this is still more interesting than him going to philly

this is stupid