hot stove 2018-19

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White Sox declined the 6-million club option for 2019 on the contract of right-hander James Shields, opting instead to exercise a https://twitter.com/scottmerkin/status/1056997331218788352-million buyout, which makes Shields a free agent. Reinstated right-hander Michael Kopech from the 60-day disabled list.

— Scott Merkin (@scottmerkin) October 29, 2018

mookieproof, Monday, 29 October 2018 19:56 (nine months ago) link

qualifying offer is $17.9m made by friday at 5pm ET

the astros are expected to make an offer to dallas keuchel, to not make an offer to marwin gonzales, and to ~maybe~ make an offer to charlie morton

mookieproof, Monday, 29 October 2018 21:53 (nine months ago) link

Morton would seem like a no brainer to me

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 30 October 2018 04:28 (nine months ago) link

stephen strasburg is 30. that has nothing to do with the hot stove, sorry.

i don't know why, but i always think of him as a whippersnapper

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 03:51 (nine months ago) link

(to continue the derail)
when i pulled up his fangraphs page i honestly expected to see that he was 26 or 27, still. crazy that a guy with 30 WAR through age 29 seems kind of like a disappointment, but there it is

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 03:52 (nine months ago) link

0.47 ERA in 19 post-season innings. I'm pretty sure that's a large enough sample to conclude that he's a man of great character.

clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 03:57 (nine months ago) link

Morton will be 35 next year, this is his one chance to make money as a FA and push for a 3-4 year deal.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 06:07 (nine months ago) link

charlie morton has had an interesting career path -- he was below replacement-level over his first nine seasons (up to age 32). but hey, if rich hill can do it . . .

mookieproof, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 14:22 (nine months ago) link

crazy that a guy with 30 WAR through age 29 seems kind of like a disappointment, but there it is

yea there are a lot of things contributing to this - he's been good, but never quite lived up to that 'greatest pitching prospect in a generation' label, nor the promise of that insane first start where he struck out 14. he was injured for a year and would later get overshadowed by Scherzer. plus, y'know, the Nats whole lack of playoff success thing. I was surprised that he had such a great year in '17.

frogbs, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 14:48 (nine months ago) link

The injuries, more than anything. They cut short that first insane era of his before we really got a chance to see what he could do. And since he came back he always seems to end up pitching through some pain, or being used carefully after an injury, ending up with 130 innings. Lots of sort of lost half seasons that were actually really good, all considering

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 14:53 (nine months ago) link

tough to stand out when your teammate is throwing all the no-hitters and winning all the cys young

mookieproof, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 14:55 (nine months ago) link

sadly I predict a similar future for Ohtani

frogbs, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 14:58 (nine months ago) link

Yeah, same. That’s what was heartbreaking about his injury. I kind of assume that at some point his arm will explode and he’ll never be the same. But god dammit, just give me one full year of peak ohtani! I don’t ask for much!

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 15:00 (nine months ago) link

trevor rosenthal to the nationals

mookieproof, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 16:53 (nine months ago) link

time for the rest of the NL East to pack it in and wait out the Rosenthal era

omar little, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 17:59 (nine months ago) link

he might be good, still! he was killing it in 2017, before his injury

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 18:15 (nine months ago) link

btw, the contract details for adam wainwright's re-signing have an..interesting..incentive structure. it's a $2 million guarantee for 2019, then:

For games started, he’ll earn $500K upon his fifth start, $1MM upon his tenth and 15th, $1.5MM for his twentieth, and $2MM apiece for his 25th and 30th. Maxing out this run of bonuses would add $8MM of salary.
For relief appearances, Wainwright can earn $500K apiece for every fifth appearance, beginning at #35 and ending at #60. That provides an avenue to $3MM in extra money.
For games finished, Wainwright will receive $500K for the 25th and 30th game in which he records the final out and $600K for every fifth game finished beginning at #35 and ending at #55. If Wainwright serves as the Cards’ closer and meets all of those thresholds, he’d tack on another $4MM, meaning he could in total earn up to an additional $7MM in a relief capacity.

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 18:16 (nine months ago) link

just out of curiosity has there been any history of managers intentionally making pitching decisions to avoid the team having to pay bonuses like that?

frogbs, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 18:20 (nine months ago) link

i don't know. i'm just really glad mike matheny is not the manager

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 18:22 (nine months ago) link

can't remember specific instances, but i'm pretty sure there have been questionable situations -- feel like it's been more often to avoid vesting options than cash bonuses tho

mookieproof, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 20:09 (nine months ago) link

yankees decline gritty brett gardner's option, then sign him to a gritty new $7.5m/one-year deal

pirates decline options on jung-ho kang and josh harrison

mookieproof, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 20:45 (nine months ago) link

cubs pick up jose quintana's option for 2019

na (NA), Wednesday, 31 October 2018 20:55 (nine months ago) link

Price is staying in Boston. I was partly hoping he'd tell the city to go fuck itself, but obviously he's not going to get that kind of money or that kind of team anywhere else.

clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 21:59 (nine months ago) link

He could have done what Sabathia did several years ago with the Yankees -- get them to extend his deal for a couple more years at the same AAV instead of opting out. But CC had pitched much better for the Yankees than Price has so far for the Red Sox. Plus, the Yankees seem to fall for those tricks, A-Rod pulled the same deal too after his monster 2007.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 1 November 2018 04:11 (nine months ago) link

The Athletics picked up Fernando Rodney’s option

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 1 November 2018 18:35 (nine months ago) link

do we have any ilx padres fans? they picked greg garcia up off of waivers. he's one of those anonymous guys but he's actually pretty useful utility infielder, doesn't really excel anywhere but rarely embarrasses himself, and a surprising on-base machine

Karl Malone, Friday, 2 November 2018 17:21 (nine months ago) link

cole hamels staying with the cubs for another year

na (NA), Friday, 2 November 2018 17:39 (nine months ago) link

isn't polyphonic a padres fan?

mookieproof, Friday, 2 November 2018 17:56 (nine months ago) link

Reds fan site writers seem to think getting new pitching coach Derek Johnson from the Brewers is a bit of a coup.

earlnash, Friday, 2 November 2018 18:06 (nine months ago) link

timellison is a Padres fan.

clemenza, Friday, 2 November 2018 18:43 (nine months ago) link

sounds like kershaw and the dodgers will get something done

also

Faced with market constraints, the Indians will listen to trade offers for some of their veteran players this winter, according to sources. Kluber, Carrasco, Encarnacion, Gomes, etc. Lindor, Ramirez will definitely be held.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 2, 2018

mookieproof, Friday, 2 November 2018 18:47 (nine months ago) link

i was kind of surprised they'd dangle Kluber, i thought the deal was very team-friendly, but i see they backloaded it and he's slated to earn 17 million next season (team options for 17.5 and 18 in 2020-21.)

omar little, Friday, 2 November 2018 18:52 (nine months ago) link

greg garcia

greg ... welcome to the resistance

reggae mike love (polyphonic), Friday, 2 November 2018 19:00 (nine months ago) link

charlie morton was *not* qualifyingly offered

mookieproof, Friday, 2 November 2018 21:56 (nine months ago) link

I became a bit of a Padres fan after having a great first-time visit to SD, which included visiting the (somewhat) hidden tiki bar behind Petco Park. Also, Ted Leitner is a pretty entertaining radio play-by-play guy.

Michael F Gill, Saturday, 3 November 2018 02:13 (nine months ago) link

Chris Woodward set to be named #Rangers manager, source confirms @BNightengale report. @MLB @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 3, 2018

?

Andy K, Saturday, 3 November 2018 02:51 (nine months ago) link

banister got jobbed, but that's the way it goes

you'd think the reds might at least offer jim riggleman some sinecure but nah

mookieproof, Saturday, 3 November 2018 03:25 (nine months ago) link

they picked greg garcia up off of waivers. he's one of those anonymous guys but he's actually pretty useful utility infielder, doesn't really excel anywhere but rarely embarrasses himself, and a surprising on-base machine

Glad to hear this. Pads had Freddy Galvis on a one-year deal this past year - so he's now a free agent - and have Tatis Jr. in the system who will turn 20 in January and spent most of the past year in AA.

timellison, Saturday, 3 November 2018 17:46 (nine months ago) link

Tatis slash line for San Antonio in 394 PA - .286/.355/.507

timellison, Saturday, 3 November 2018 17:47 (nine months ago) link

Luis Urias seems like he'll get a big shot to be the starting second baseman and they've got Wil Myers at third now.

timellison, Saturday, 3 November 2018 17:48 (nine months ago) link

At meetings this week, @MLB GMs expected to consider eliminating trade waivers and moving to a uniform trade deadline, possibly in mid-August. Change would require union approval. @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 5, 2018

mookieproof, Monday, 5 November 2018 16:42 (nine months ago) link

#SFGiants have offered Farhan Zaidi position as president of baseball operations, source confirms. Decision is expected within 24 hours. @MLBNetwork @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 6, 2018

mookieproof, Tuesday, 6 November 2018 21:28 (nine months ago) link

Scott Boras on Bryce Harper: “Certainly Harper’s bazaar has begun. It’s fashionable. It’s historical. It’s elite. Global certainly. And certainly it has inspirations that deal with great shoes and great hair.”

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 7, 2018

mookieproof, Wednesday, 7 November 2018 22:50 (nine months ago) link

@Pirates
ANNOUNCED: The Pirates have signed free agent infielder Jung Ho Kang to a one-year contract for the 2019 season.

smgdh

mookieproof, Thursday, 8 November 2018 14:56 (nine months ago) link

rays-mariners trade

Rays get:

Mike Zunino
Guillermo Heredia
Michael Plassmeyer

Mariners get:

Mallex Smith
Jake Fraley

na (NA), Thursday, 8 November 2018 15:23 (nine months ago) link

feel like the mariners are 'rebuilding' simply because dipoto is addicted to trading

mookieproof, Thursday, 8 November 2018 17:15 (nine months ago) link

Team Willing to Entertain Trade Offers for Player Season is my favorite season

mookieproof, Friday, 9 November 2018 20:30 (nine months ago) link

As great as he is, I can definitely see where Cleveland might want to trade Kluber. Clevinger and Bauer are both 27; Carrasco's 31. Bieber's 23--he didn't pitch especially well, but his K/BB ratio suggests better things ahead. Their bullpen was mostly lousy, and they finished seven games under their Pythagorean last year. I would think a good return on Kluber, maybe some bullpen help and a starting outfieder, could put them back in 100-win range.

clemenza, Saturday, 10 November 2018 17:36 (nine months ago) link

We are hearing Giants ownership/upper mgmt might not be on the same page as Zaidi regarding Harper. They want to offer a long term contract like they did with Bonds and Zaidi does NOT want to. Sabean/Baer step the F up, this is your team, not some slappy's from the Dodgers! @KNBR

— Smash Mouth (@smashmouth) February 26, 2019

reggae mike love (polyphonic), Tuesday, 26 February 2019 19:24 (five months ago) link

I'm not sure that Bonds' $40M contract from 25 years ago is the best reference point here.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 26 February 2019 19:57 (five months ago) link

cardinals give miles mikolas 4/68

J0rdan S., Tuesday, 26 February 2019 20:22 (five months ago) link

Amazing. His 2015 contract for the Yomiuri Giants was 2Y/$5M.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 26 February 2019 21:07 (five months ago) link

cardinals sign matt wieters to a minor league deal. he's not great, but he would be the best backup they've had since 2004, when yadi was the backup to mike matheny

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 27 February 2019 03:50 (five months ago) link

Twins should pounce on Keuchel and Kimbrel.

Van Horn Street, Sunday, 3 March 2019 18:17 (five months ago) link

Keuchel must feel so dumb for turning down that $90M/5 extension from the Astros.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 5 March 2019 17:36 (five months ago) link

I think I’d be more mad at the agent, who is supposed to know these things

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 5 March 2019 18:28 (five months ago) link

that agent is scott boras

mookieproof, Tuesday, 5 March 2019 18:37 (five months ago) link

iirc his former agent was the one who declined the $90/5 and that Boras is the new agent.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 5 March 2019 18:55 (five months ago) link

adam jones 1-year, $3 million with diamondbacks

na (NA), Monday, 11 March 2019 14:59 (five months ago) link

alex bregman

he Astros and All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman have agreed to a five-year, $100 million contract extension, a source told MLB.com on Tuesday.

...His extension will cover his three arbitration years (2020-22) and his first two years of free agency (2023-24). Bregman will be entering his age-30 season when the contract expires.

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 20 March 2019 06:42 (four months ago) link

Gio Gonzalez said the #Yankees deal was the only offer he got.

— Brendan Kuty (@BrendanKutyNJ) March 20, 2019

mookieproof, Wednesday, 20 March 2019 13:57 (four months ago) link

Top outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez and the Chicago White Sox are finalizing a long-term deal, league sources tell ESPN.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 20, 2019

mookieproof, Wednesday, 20 March 2019 18:44 (four months ago) link

it's gonna be like 10 years $27 million

J0rdan S., Wednesday, 20 March 2019 18:46 (four months ago) link

sounds like six years + two club options for around $40m?

following the trail blazed by jon singleton and scott kingery

mookieproof, Wednesday, 20 March 2019 18:52 (four months ago) link

oh wait

Eloy Jimenez’s contract with the #WhiteSox is expected to max out at 8 years and valued between $75-80 million.

— Jesse Sanchez (@JesseSanchezMLB) March 20, 2019

mookieproof, Wednesday, 20 March 2019 18:53 (four months ago) link

would this remove the benefit of service-time manipulation, because if so i'm in favor

na (NA), Wednesday, 20 March 2019 18:56 (four months ago) link

Isn't that Alex Bregman deal an absolute steal for the Astros? He's 25, so they get his six prime years for $17-M/season. What I am I missing?...I'm surprised he signed, unless he envisions a protracted strike.

clemenza, Wednesday, 20 March 2019 23:30 (four months ago) link

The two arbitration years they're buying out lower the average, but after that he's basically making 30 per. Not too shabby but certainly below his value.

reggae mike love (polyphonic), Wednesday, 20 March 2019 23:38 (four months ago) link

maybe he's taking the douchebag discount

heinrich boll weevil (Hadrian VIII), Thursday, 21 March 2019 00:27 (four months ago) link

Any neo-classical economist who truly believe that a subject is always self-interested and rational should look at Bregman's contract.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 21 March 2019 02:58 (four months ago) link

or trout's

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Thursday, 21 March 2019 03:18 (four months ago) link

Cardinals reportedly nearing extension with goldschmidt worth $130M

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Thursday, 21 March 2019 22:19 (four months ago) link

extensions are the new free agency

Michael F Gill, Thursday, 21 March 2019 22:36 (four months ago) link

The cardinal fans in Jupiter FL must have given him a super nice standing ovation on his first plate appearance

#bfib

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Thursday, 21 March 2019 22:44 (four months ago) link

Extensions have been replacing free agency for a while now. Mauer and Votto's extensions (with "small market" teams) are two good examples of contracts that were unimaginable just a few years earlier.

Bregman becomes a free agent at age 30 and in another era would be poised to get a windfall 6-7 year deal. But in this era who knows. I can't blame him for wanting to eliminate those distractions for the next five years, in any case he's set for life. This was basically Aaron Nola's reasoning too and he signed for less than half of what Bregman got.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 22 March 2019 03:58 (four months ago) link

So many extensions happening that Snell's $50M/5 got buried.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 22 March 2019 05:08 (four months ago) link

Sale $150M/5

Van Horn Street, Friday, 22 March 2019 17:10 (four months ago) link

Lol at Sale outperforming Snell x3 in the next 5 yrs

heinrich boll weevil (Hadrian VIII), Friday, 22 March 2019 18:05 (four months ago) link

Verlander gets a $66 million extension with the Astros covering 2020-21

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Saturday, 23 March 2019 18:46 (four months ago) link

whoops

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ronald-acuna-jr-s-new-contract-is-staggering/

Players simply haven’t given up four free agent seasons this far from free agency, especially players of Acuña’s caliber. A guarantee for half that amount that ensured that Acuña hit free agency in his 20s likely would have been a better deal for Acuña and a positive deal for the Braves. This deal isn’t a steal because of the system that players and owners have set up. This is a deal that, even within that system, will likely prevent Acuña from ever being paid at a level anywhere near his true on-field value.

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 3 April 2019 01:01 (four months ago) link

this isn't one of the ones that really gets me riled up... it's true that if acuna continues on this trajectory it will be a bargain for the braves but if he doesn't then it's a huge score for him. the exchanging of risk by both parties on this one seems pretty equal to me and at the end of the day the guy is getting $100 million (pre tax...)

J0rdan S., Wednesday, 3 April 2019 15:00 (four months ago) link

obv the system that necessitates these deals in the first place needs to be overturned but there is always a rush to call these deals huge wins for the team but like... does anyone think gregory polanco is a huge steal on what is essentially the 3/24 left on the extension he signed in 2016? development timelines are wacky

J0rdan S., Wednesday, 3 April 2019 15:03 (four months ago) link

i've seen that argument before and it feels like it's based on a concept of "value" that is just the player's potential positive impact over the course of the contract. but every one of these longer-term contracts is based on a market value that balances potential long-term positive impact with potential risk. the risk is factored into the value. and even with that risk factored in, acuna (and trout, and probably other players) are still being underpaid based on that value.

na (NA), Wednesday, 3 April 2019 15:11 (four months ago) link

xpost

na (NA), Wednesday, 3 April 2019 15:11 (four months ago) link

Obviously some of these contracts suck but in the greater national context of pay inequity it's very hard for me to get worked up about. We're talking about a little more than 600 employees whose average salary is $3.5 million (!)

Alll this indignation would be more productively aimed at perpetrators in the real world. The average salary for CEO at an S&P 500 firm is >350x that of the average laborer.

d'ILM for Murder (Hadrian VIII), Wednesday, 3 April 2019 15:16 (four months ago) link

the players have a legit union w/ real leverage that will serve them again in time, which is more than can be said for almost all the rest of us

d'ILM for Murder (Hadrian VIII), Wednesday, 3 April 2019 15:18 (four months ago) link

i am capable of being indignant about more than one thing

na (NA), Wednesday, 3 April 2019 15:33 (four months ago) link

great facebook post though

na (NA), Wednesday, 3 April 2019 15:33 (four months ago) link

you are special, most humans have finite resources of time and energy

d'ILM for Murder (Hadrian VIII), Wednesday, 3 April 2019 15:36 (four months ago) link

xp thanks!

d'ILM for Murder (Hadrian VIII), Wednesday, 3 April 2019 15:37 (four months ago) link

gregory polanco did not put up 4 war and win rookie of the year as a 20yo (and even 2 war/season, as polanco did last year, is more than enough to justify his contract).

it's hard to blame acuna -- he's a 21yo kid from venezuela who is now more than set for life. but i don't think the braves are taking on much risk at all. this might be an optimistic example, but mookie got $10m in his first year of arbitration and $20m in his second; acuna has locked himself into less than that for his entire prime. maybe the free agent system is irreparably broken and we don't know what 1 war is worth in an unopen market, but if we go by $8m-$9m, all the braves are risking is that acuna won't be worth 2 war per season throughout his 20s.

anyway, acuna's rich, braves ownership gets to keep more money, so it goes

mookieproof, Wednesday, 3 April 2019 15:37 (four months ago) link

Beetlejuice:
The in-unison chorus of “Acuna getting $100M is a ripoff” is a bit troubling to me. Why do so many media Acuna should immediately adopt their opinion because they “know better.” He’s trying to do what’s best for him and his family and everyone’s risk preference is different. (Even if it’s team friendly – the current landscape of media combativeness is no bueno)


Meg Rowley:
The deal is hilariously light for talented a player. I think we can recognize why an individual wants to be set for life while still bemoaning the incentives at work that inspired him to sign such a deal.

The media’s job isn’t to be conciliatory toward teams. Our job is to properly assess and analyze baseball news.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 3 April 2019 15:44 (four months ago) link

i have a side question but has anyone done any mathy articles describing why everyone places a "dollar value" on WAR as if it's geometric and not e.g. logarithmic? like why is a 9-WAR player worth 3 times a 3-WAR player? is it because there are so many players on a team + a multi-year deal means even more players over time?

they're not booing you, sir, they're shouting "Boot Edge Edge" (Will M.), Wednesday, 3 April 2019 18:03 (four months ago) link

also i'm not a math boss so idk if i am using geometric and logarithmic right. i don't even know if i'm spelling the last one right. i'm a fuckin mess

they're not booing you, sir, they're shouting "Boot Edge Edge" (Will M.), Wednesday, 3 April 2019 18:04 (four months ago) link

linear vs log is what you're looking for.

Wins are measured integrally, so it lends itself to the linear scale.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 3 April 2019 19:31 (four months ago) link

cubs extend ... david bote? through ... 2024?

na (NA), Wednesday, 3 April 2019 21:00 (four months ago) link

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D208mp_X0AAi8g4.jpg:small

mookieproof, Thursday, 4 April 2019 14:52 (four months ago) link


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