Guess the ORIOLES' final record 2018

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The Orioles are now 32-74 (.302). They have 56 games left (including tonight's, which they are losing); 26 at home and 30 on the road. 23 of those games are against NYY/BOS/CLE/HOU with six more vs. SEA/OAK. They have utterly gutted their roster. What will their final record be this season?

NOTE: The 2003 Tigers went 43-119.

Poll Results

OptionVotes
47-115 2
WORSE than 43-119 1
52-110 1
51-111 1
49-113 1
48-114 1
46-116 1
44-118 1
43-119 1
53-109 1
60-102 1
58-104 1
54-108 0
62-102 0
61-101 0
45-117 0
59-103 0
57-105 0
50-112 0
56-106 0
55-107 0
BETTER than 62-102 0


mookieproof, Wednesday, 1 August 2018 01:12 (ten months ago) Permalink

49W

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 1 August 2018 01:48 (ten months ago) Permalink

My interest was piqued a couple of weeks ago when I calculated them to be on pace for 41 wins, meaning a shot at falling short of 40, the '62 Mets number that's easy to remember. (The dominance of the powerhouse Toronto Blue Jays over them contributed a lot to this.) Then they won a couple against the Red Sox. So somewhere in the 40s; over or under both unlikely. 47-115 I'll say.

clemenza, Wednesday, 1 August 2018 02:29 (ten months ago) Permalink

Just the one win against Boston--it's Tampa Bay that screwed up their march toward history.

clemenza, Wednesday, 1 August 2018 02:32 (ten months ago) Permalink

loss tonight puts them at 32-75, i.e. on pace for slightly better than 48-114 . . . before they jettisoned all their decent players

mookieproof, Wednesday, 1 August 2018 02:47 (ten months ago) Permalink

I voted 53. This team's much better than their lousy record and they won't continue to have such bad luck.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Wednesday, 1 August 2018 03:12 (ten months ago) Permalink

which team?

mookieproof, Wednesday, 1 August 2018 03:17 (ten months ago) Permalink

Eeephus makes a good point insofar as they're running seven games behind their Pythagorean record. But if they've dismantled the team that was the recipient of all that bad luck, there's probably no reason for the expected balancing-out to happen. (And not much time--and I'm just now noticing the part about their remaining schedule in the original post.)

clemenza, Wednesday, 1 August 2018 13:15 (ten months ago) Permalink

it's hard to play worse than they have, no matter who they've traded

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 1 August 2018 13:54 (ten months ago) Permalink

46-116 why because i did the math

(remember that when i'm right)

(do not assume i threw a dart at the screen please)

(please)

challops trap house (Will M.), Wednesday, 1 August 2018 14:30 (ten months ago) Permalink

Voted 48W

a shomin-geki poster with some horror elements (WilliamC), Wednesday, 1 August 2018 15:12 (ten months ago) Permalink

they won't win another game

na (NA), Wednesday, 1 August 2018 15:58 (ten months ago) Permalink

mark my words - this team is going to catch fire

60-102

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 1 August 2018 16:17 (ten months ago) Permalink

Hung on to beat the mighty Bombers! You can't predict (a) baseball (game).

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 1 August 2018 21:09 (ten months ago) Permalink

ok NOW they won't win another game

na (NA), Thursday, 2 August 2018 00:21 (ten months ago) Permalink

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

System, Saturday, 4 August 2018 00:01 (ten months ago) Permalink

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

System, Sunday, 5 August 2018 00:01 (ten months ago) Permalink

Still maintaining a 49-win clip (.301), but the Royals have lost 6 straight and tied them at 34-79. I boldly predict that KC will finish worse.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 8 August 2018 11:09 (ten months ago) Permalink

The Orioles and Red Sox won't break any records, but what's the record for games-behind? They might have a serious chance at that one. The 2001 Mariners and the '98 Yankees had divisional leads of 43.0 and 51.0; the Red Sox are 45.5 up on Baltimore right now.

clemenza, Thursday, 9 August 2018 13:22 (ten months ago) Permalink

haven't done all the research, but the '62 Mets finished 60.5 behind the Giants (in a single 10-team league standings)

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 9 August 2018 14:07 (ten months ago) Permalink

I think they can beat that. Boston winning 110 and Baltimore 50 would be +60, so they just need to step it up/down a bit. They've got seven games left with each other.

clemenza, Thursday, 9 August 2018 14:28 (ten months ago) Permalink

Fangraphs projection this morning has them finishing 55-107. They really have been playing like a more normal terrible team since the break, 7-10

Guayaquil (eephus!), Thursday, 9 August 2018 14:39 (ten months ago) Permalink

sorry, there were several 20th century teams that finished further back than the Mets; 65.5 seems to be the "modern" record.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_records

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 9 August 2018 14:46 (ten months ago) Permalink

I think many of you forgot to factor in the two remaining games against the Mets.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 15 August 2018 16:32 (ten months ago) Permalink

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/would-the-orioles-be-better-with-rafael-palmeiro/

On a related topic, I'd be perfectly okay with the Jays releasing Russ Martin and signing Manny Sanguillén for the rest of the season.

clemenza, Saturday, 18 August 2018 14:39 (ten months ago) Permalink

Orioles continuing to be, not a good team, but not as world-historically terrible as the first half of the season looked. CG win by Alex Cobb today, who, lest we forget, has a pretty long record of being an average-to-good pitcher when not a member of the 2018 Baltimore Orioles. Now at 37-86, 9-17 since the break. I still think they break 50.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Saturday, 18 August 2018 23:00 (ten months ago) Permalink

Yeah at this point Royals as much a threat to not break 50 as the Orioles.

Van Horn Street, Sunday, 19 August 2018 02:33 (ten months ago) Permalink

40!

showdown with the royals this weekend

mookieproof, Thursday, 30 August 2018 04:24 (nine months ago) Permalink

with machado and schoop gone, the top orioles position player (by 2018 bWAR) is craig gentry at 1.0

he was just released

mookieproof, Wednesday, 5 September 2018 18:58 (nine months ago) Permalink

Their final 10 games (out of 21 left) are against Boston, New York, and Houston. They look like a good bet for under 50 wins and more than 60 games behind Boston.

clemenza, Sunday, 9 September 2018 00:49 (nine months ago) Permalink

1-9 in september with a 6.80 team ERA

mookieproof, Thursday, 13 September 2018 03:18 (nine months ago) Permalink

if they go 5-12 the rest of the way you all owe me 1 beer (cost of 1 beer split amongst you all)

vote no on ilxit (Will M.), Thursday, 13 September 2018 13:42 (nine months ago) Permalink

is Chris Davis gonna hit the -3 WAR mark

frogbs, Thursday, 13 September 2018 13:44 (nine months ago) Permalink

i will buy eephus a beer no matter what happens

mookieproof, Thursday, 13 September 2018 14:12 (nine months ago) Permalink

43-106. 59.5 games behind boston. 13 games left

3 vs TOR
3 at BOS
3 at NYY
4 vs HOU

mookieproof, Monday, 17 September 2018 19:48 (nine months ago) Permalink

i think they can win 3 or 4 of those

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 17 September 2018 19:50 (nine months ago) Permalink

mark my words - this team is going to catch fire

60-102

― Karl Malone

wow, oops

Karl Malone, Monday, 17 September 2018 20:35 (nine months ago) Permalink

Opposing hitters have an incredible .939 OPS vs. Orioles starting pitchers this month!

To put that in perspective:

A hitter with a .939 OPS for this season would rank 7th in MLB - just behind Alex Bregman (.952) & ahead of Christian Yelich (.937).

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) September 17, 2018

mookieproof, Monday, 17 September 2018 21:55 (nine months ago) Permalink

"I’ve never seen sports teams survive seasons like this without people losing jobs, period”: catcher Caleb Joseph did not hold back when talking to @danconnolly2016 about the current state of the Orioles https://t.co/tiKLMOJa1y

— The Athletic (@TheAthleticBAL) September 18, 2018

caleb joseph has played in 75 games, batted 259 times, has a wRC+ of 59 and fWAR 0.0 at catcher (his defense is above average)

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 18 September 2018 03:29 (nine months ago) Permalink

wRC+ of 59 52

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 18 September 2018 03:30 (nine months ago) Permalink

At least one, and likely two, of BOS/NYY/HOU will be fielding their own AAA teams during their series with the Orioles. I'm sure they'll win a few games and end up with around 47 wins. Hey, that was my guess in the poll!

NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 18 September 2018 08:51 (nine months ago) Permalink

60.0 behind--first time this year?

clemenza, Tuesday, 18 September 2018 11:21 (nine months ago) Permalink

isn't he the guy from a couple years ago who went remarkably long without a single RBI?

vote no on ilxit (Will M.), Tuesday, 18 September 2018 14:43 (nine months ago) Permalink

yeah, that's him. and to be fair, he's about as good as any 32-year-old backup catcher who only reached the majors a month before turning 28. not his fault the orioles' 23yo catcher of the future (chance sisco) has been even worse

the o's will probably non-tender him this winter; i'm not sure if it's a good career move to be the outspoken accountability guy in this situation

mookieproof, Tuesday, 18 September 2018 14:59 (nine months ago) Permalink

Being metrically defines as exactly “replacement level” is never a good position to be in when it’s time to talk about replacing people

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 18 September 2018 16:30 (nine months ago) Permalink

defined

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 18 September 2018 16:30 (nine months ago) Permalink

By WAR, the most valuable player currently on Baltimore’s roster is Richard Bleier, a 31-year-old reliever who has been on the DL since June.

https://deadspin.com/the-baltimore-orioles-have-been-even-worse-than-they-lo-1829362955

mookieproof, Thursday, 27 September 2018 18:40 (eight months ago) Permalink

ILB ftw

mookieproof, Monday, 1 October 2018 01:33 (eight months ago) Permalink

wow. we did it?!

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 1 October 2018 18:09 (eight months ago) Permalink

My optimism was misplaced but I still like this team a lot, there's something very Oriole about Jonathan Villar

Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 1 October 2018 18:41 (eight months ago) Permalink

is it is 8 WAR over 6 seasons?

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 1 October 2018 18:44 (eight months ago) Permalink

buck stops here

mookieproof, Wednesday, 3 October 2018 16:41 (eight months ago) Permalink

Great manager for this team, my favorite since Weaver. I see the reasoning but he can leave with head high.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Wednesday, 3 October 2018 16:43 (eight months ago) Permalink

What's Buck gonna do now?!

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 3 October 2018 16:59 (eight months ago) Permalink

he's 62, maybe he'll just chillax

solid manager; unfortunate that the lasting memory of his stint in baltimore will be not using zach britton

mookieproof, Wednesday, 3 October 2018 17:06 (eight months ago) Permalink

If you made an average of all the faces, tics and physiques of all MLB managers in major leagues history, you end up with Buck. I mean it as a compliment.

Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 3 October 2018 17:24 (eight months ago) Permalink

this is a team that needs to get back to basics. that needs gritty old-time baseball and someone who understands The [Bird] Way. that needs mike matheny

mookieproof, Wednesday, 3 October 2018 17:30 (eight months ago) Permalink

five months pass...

538 speculates they could be even worse this year.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2019-orioles-are-one-of-the-most-anonymous-teams-in-mlb-history/

clemenza, Tuesday, 12 March 2019 23:58 (three months ago) Permalink

opening day starter: alex cobb

of the 78 pitchers to throw 150 innings last year, he ranked 65th in fWAR (dylan bundy was 71st, andrew cashner 75th)

mookieproof, Wednesday, 13 March 2019 20:34 (three months ago) Permalink

They're not gonna be worse this year.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Wednesday, 13 March 2019 20:35 (three months ago) Permalink

feel like davis can't possibly be as bad as last year and maybe bundy won't give up 41 homers, but i don't otherwise see any reason for optimism

mookieproof, Wednesday, 13 March 2019 20:44 (three months ago) Permalink

sounds like it's time for Guess the ORIOLES' final record 2019

na (NA), Wednesday, 13 March 2019 20:53 (three months ago) Permalink

davis is batting .143 in spring training so far

na (NA), Wednesday, 13 March 2019 20:55 (three months ago) Permalink

pythag had them at 55-107 last year (eight games better than their actual record) so there's that

mookieproof, Wednesday, 13 March 2019 21:04 (three months ago) Permalink

Who will be worse: o’s or marlins?

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Thursday, 14 March 2019 03:43 (three months ago) Permalink

It was the anonymity angle that drew me to the article. I looked over their roster and recognized maybe four names...which doesn't mean much in view of how poorly I keep up with new players. I did notice they've got Palmeiro's son and Yastrzemski's grandson.

clemenza, Thursday, 14 March 2019 05:14 (three months ago) Permalink

Don't think either of those guys will be in Baltimore opening day though. Neither will Ryan Ripken, who also got a spring training PA.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Saturday, 16 March 2019 18:46 (three months ago) Permalink

pythag had them at 55-107 last year (eight games better than their actual record) so there's that

Right. And Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb, and Andrew Cashner are 3/5 of a starting rotation who very much ought to be better this year than last year. I don't think this team is going to be good, but everything, EVERYTHING has to go wrong for you to lose 115 games and at that level of extremity the undertow of regression is really strong.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Saturday, 16 March 2019 18:48 (three months ago) Permalink

cobb might benefit from having a full spring training, but both he and cashner are now in their 30s and have actively bad K and BB numbers. bundy is league-average if he doesn't allow last year's insane number of homers. and they're without the half-season of machado.

but yeah, getting to 115 losses is never easy

mookieproof, Saturday, 16 March 2019 19:20 (three months ago) Permalink

With Alex Cobb starting the season on the injured list, Brandon Hyde said the Orioles will open the season with the following rotation against the Yankees:
-Andrew Cashner
-Nate Karns as an opener
-Dylan Bundy

— Nathan Ruiz (@NathanSRuiz) March 26, 2019

mookieproof, Thursday, 28 March 2019 14:31 (two months ago) Permalink

^^^ "Hey guess what @NathanSRuiz, they went 2 for 3 in the Bronx.

ON PACE FOR 108 WINS AMIGO"

should I tweet that or has someone already beat me to it?

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Monday, 1 April 2019 03:36 (two months ago) Permalink


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