Ask Dr. Morbius

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Daer Mr. Morbuois,

How do I convince my occasional friend and would-be baseball nerd that Jeff Karsens is not a good pitcher and that these two starts are outliers in an otherwise unextraordinary career? He seems to think that the Yanquis got snookered in the Nady/Marte trade.

-- Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved, Sunday, August 10, 2008 4:16 PM (0 seconds ago) Bookmark Link

Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved, Sunday, 10 August 2008 16:17 (eleven years ago) link

I'm not Morbs, but remind him that in 2001, Bud Smith of the Saint Louis Cardinals threw a no-hitter. Who is Bud Smith?

Also, "sample size".

polyphonic, Sunday, 10 August 2008 18:00 (eleven years ago) link

He doesn't understand these words. I've tried to explain this things to him. I am basically trying to avoid saying "shut up you dumfuk" without having to be either a) diplomatic or b) long winded.

Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved, Sunday, 10 August 2008 18:09 (eleven years ago) link

If he doesn't understand those words, then "shut up you dumfuk" is just about all the explanation he needs, amirite?

Rock Hardy, Sunday, 10 August 2008 18:42 (eleven years ago) link

dear morbs,

thanks for your call this morning, sorry i couldn't go. can we plan something soon, though? so that it actually happens?

xoxo,

tza

tehresa, Sunday, 10 August 2008 18:43 (eleven years ago) link

Time will answer Karstens questions. The you can say-I-told-you-so. Or hopefully, be embarrassed by Karstens' 3 Cy Young Awards and Nady reverting to a C+ player.

Sure, tza.

Dr Morbius, Monday, 11 August 2008 13:31 (eleven years ago) link

Hey Morbs what are the odds on an all Chicago series?

gr8080, Thursday, 14 August 2008 17:41 (eleven years ago) link

well, the odds of them both making the playoffs at this point are around 70% (ie, 98% for the Cubs and 70% for the Sox). Judging the subsequent LDS and LCS outcomes all as something approximating a coin flip, I'd say all-Chi WS is between 4%-5%.

Dr Morbius, Friday, 15 August 2008 14:37 (eleven years ago) link

Doctorb Morbius, what's the general SABRDUUD opinion on Lincecum vis-a-vis the 2008 NL Sigh Young Reward?

Leee, Saturday, 23 August 2008 21:18 (eleven years ago) link

Should I have asked this question in English?

Leee, Tuesday, 26 August 2008 16:02 (eleven years ago) link

I'd say they are generally considered neck-and-neck. Sheehan did a few awards-related columns on Prospectus last week, and he pointed out that as fine a season as Webb is having, he may win the right award in the wrong year (due to the BBWAA's doting on W-L, which also was the basis for gypping Webb out of Rookie of the Year). Webb's BB/K rate is a tad better, their HR rates are similar, and I think Timmy has a slight edge everywhere else.

Lincecum leads right now in VORP (w/ Santana 2nd) and WARP, so I'd have to give it to him right now. BBWAA won't even consider him seriously unless T.L. also wins 20.

Dr Morbius, Tuesday, 26 August 2008 16:22 (eleven years ago) link

If the season ended today, I'd predict 1. Webb 2. Dempster 3. Lincecum.

jaymc, Tuesday, 26 August 2008 19:07 (eleven years ago) link

The James Predictor suggests 2 & 3 would flip (as long as they're close in wins, Lincecum's strikeouts should impress more than Dempster).

But really, it's the BBWAA, fuck em.

Dr Morbius, Tuesday, 26 August 2008 19:11 (eleven years ago) link

Dempster wouldn't get any credit just for being a Cub instead of a Giant?

jaymc, Tuesday, 26 August 2008 19:19 (eleven years ago) link

I don't think the success of the teams is as much of a predictor in the Cy Young vote as it is in the MVP.

Alex in SF, Tuesday, 26 August 2008 19:26 (eleven years ago) link

Morbs,

When was the last time that the top 4 payrolls in baseball didn't make the playoffs?

Lovingly,

SS

Steve Shasta, Wednesday, 27 August 2008 15:58 (eleven years ago) link

I don't know, or esp care.

Dr Morbius, Wednesday, 27 August 2008 17:03 (eleven years ago) link

Dr. Morbius,

You know those Keith Law chat transcript looking things that you sometimes post that look like this:

Tom: St. Louis MO: What are your thoughts on Yost having Sabathia pitch the 9th the other night when he had already thrown 110 pitches and the Brewers had a 7 run lead?

Keith Law: (1:22 PM ET ) Idiotic. I'm not sure which is more likely to cause the Brewers to lose in their NLDS - their flammable bullpen, or their addled manager.

Where are those from?

felicity, Wednesday, 27 August 2008 20:08 (eleven years ago) link

They are from http://espn.com/mlb

You can follow them via the chat link when the chat is ongoing, BUT afterward they are usually behind their subscription wall.

Dr Morbius, Thursday, 28 August 2008 15:03 (eleven years ago) link

two weeks pass...

Dr. Morbius, this is not about baseball, but hey what's up do you like the movie "Symbiopsychotaxiplasm" why because its intersting.

ian, Saturday, 13 September 2008 04:22 (eleven years ago) link

I worked on the sequel to that thing. I met S+3v3 Bu5c3m! and gave him a cigarette.

Every Day Jimmy Mod Is Hustlin' (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Sunday, 14 September 2008 00:47 (eleven years ago) link

Dear Dr. Morbius:

My spouse is out with TOMBOT watching that new Coen Bros movie. Should I be concerned?

Concernedly,

quincie, Sunday, 14 September 2008 01:09 (eleven years ago) link

Oh wait this is ILBaseball. Hmm, I supposed I should therefore as an ILB question.

Dear Dr. Morbius:

Wouldn't it be better if Mr. Que and TOMBOT were at a Nats game rather than that new Coen Bros movie?

Your thoughts appreciated,

quincie, Sunday, 14 September 2008 01:13 (eleven years ago) link

quinc, I have never had a movie date w/ Tomboto, so don't know if he gets "fresh." (He did not try anything at the Nats game I went to w/ him tho.)

ian, I've never heard of it.

Dr Morbius, Monday, 15 September 2008 14:07 (eleven years ago) link

two weeks pass...

Dr. Morbius,

What is "secret sauce" you have been writing about vis-a-vis playoffs?

f

felicity, Thursday, 2 October 2008 17:35 (eleven years ago) link

Here is a description:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/fantasy/fsv/2008-09-23-FSV-003.htm

polyphonic, Thursday, 2 October 2008 17:58 (eleven years ago) link

Ah, I see.

felicity, Thursday, 2 October 2008 18:05 (eleven years ago) link

MY NAME IS

Dr Morbius, Thursday, 2 October 2008 18:16 (eleven years ago) link

KIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIID

Barack HUSSEIN Obama (max), Thursday, 2 October 2008 18:18 (eleven years ago) link

six months pass...

why is gabbknob back btw?

― Dr Morbius, Tuesday, April 28, 2009 3:14 PM (8 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

^^ this is solid

FREE DOM AND ETHAN (special guest stars mark bronson), Tuesday, 28 April 2009 13:24 (ten years ago) link

life is hard, bro

loaded forbear (gabbneb), Tuesday, 28 April 2009 13:28 (ten years ago) link

gabbneb's back?

Mr. Que, Tuesday, 28 April 2009 13:44 (ten years ago) link

i've seen no evidence of this--check yr glasses morbs

Mr. Que, Tuesday, 28 April 2009 13:45 (ten years ago) link

four months pass...

Dear Dr Morbius,

is Kung Fu Hustle the greatest narrative feature film ever made, y/n?

Young Scott Young (sic), Saturday, 19 September 2009 12:55 (ten years ago) link

n

(closer than Knocked Up or The Natural, obv)

A Patch on Blazing Saddles (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 19 September 2009 15:22 (ten years ago) link

Dr. M:

What are the Red Sox chances at winning the World Series this year, and why?

Thanks, and best regards.

-- Daniel

Daniel, Esq., Saturday, 19 September 2009 16:56 (ten years ago) link

(I followed the pattern of posting like a letter, with signature. Kinda don't like the way it looks, in retrospect. Oh well.)

Daniel, Esq., Saturday, 19 September 2009 16:58 (ten years ago) link

20-22%. Figure 12.5% for each of 8 equally balanced playoff teams, then factor in the AL's strength and the Sox likely being the 2nd-best AL team.

A Patch on Blazing Saddles (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 19 September 2009 17:03 (ten years ago) link

morbius who are your ten favorite players?

omar little, Saturday, 19 September 2009 17:12 (ten years ago) link

active?

A Patch on Blazing Saddles (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 19 September 2009 17:16 (ten years ago) link

let's say both

omar little, Saturday, 19 September 2009 17:17 (ten years ago) link

i'd like active, actually

k3vin k., Saturday, 19 September 2009 17:19 (ten years ago) link

but not my qn

k3vin k., Saturday, 19 September 2009 17:19 (ten years ago) link

active and passive

a full circle lol (J0hn D.), Saturday, 19 September 2009 17:23 (ten years ago) link

i KNEW that was comin, just not from you!

I'll keep this *mostly* to players I actually saw:

ALL-TIME
Seaver
Mays
Satchel Paige
Ruth
Joe Morgan
Rickey Henderson
Aaron
Barry Bonds
Tug McGraw
Bill (Spaceman) Lee

ACTIVE
David Wright
Pujols
Beltran
Sizemore
Mauer
Haren
Brian McCann
Utley
Pablo Sandoval
Ichiro

A Patch on Blazing Saddles (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 19 September 2009 17:40 (ten years ago) link

Dear Dr. Morbiouss,

What was it liek seeing babe ruth pitch?

--JTM

cutty probably already everyone (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Saturday, 19 September 2009 18:32 (ten years ago) link

cheap

A Patch on Blazing Saddles (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 19 September 2009 18:50 (ten years ago) link

hahahaha

also surprised joe's unfortunate post-player career hasn't soured your opnion of him

k3vin k., Saturday, 19 September 2009 20:06 (ten years ago) link

I'm Solomonic that way.

A Patch on Blazing Saddles (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 19 September 2009 20:08 (ten years ago) link

looks like they haven't got their hussle together yet, as lucy van pelt might say

Ward Fowler, Thursday, 24 January 2013 20:27 (seven years ago) link

Morbs,

What do you remember about the Mets trading Seaver to the Reds in '77? Was there more to it than just a contract dispute? Free agency was new and maybe the fans didn't know exactly what to make of it, so were Mets fans mostly on Seaver's side or did they turn on him for being "greedy"?

NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 29 January 2013 15:13 (seven years ago) link

I think most fans were disgusted and turned off by ownership, and the attendance for the next 6 years showed it. Apparently Seaver had essentially reached an agreement with the Mets, but Daily News columnist Dick Young, who'd been waging a "greedy bastard" vendetta in print vs Seaver, wrote something about Nancy Seaver being jealous of Nolan Ryan's contract that Tom believed had been fed to Young by the front office. So Seaver called the Mets and said "Get me out of here."

saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 29 January 2013 15:28 (seven years ago) link

I heard about that fake jealousy thing re: Ryan. The Mets more or less cratered from '77 until the Davey Johnson years, but they'd been mediocre for a few years (including '73 which was a bit of a fluke) and they were a losing team in '77. Some people must have turned on Seaver and blamed him for all the losing, and then blamed him again for asking for a new contract (whose value must have seemed astronomical at the time) in the midst of a losing season. Or was it more like "give him whatever he wants, he's Tom f'n Seaver!"

NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 29 January 2013 16:27 (seven years ago) link

This feature in the Daily News from the 30th anniversary seems fair:

The seeds of the ugliest episode in Met history were planted on July 12, 1976, when a new Collective Bargaining Agreement was reached, following another bitter and protracted labor dispute in the wake of arbitrator Peter Seitz's strike-down of the reserve clause, and the dawn of free agency was ushered in. Four months earlier, the Mets had locked Seaver in with a three-year, $675,000 deal, making him baseball's highest paid pitcher - temporarily - with a base salary of $225,000....

But in the spring of '77, Seaver, who had been the Mets' player rep in the labor negotiations, was elated over the riches suddenly being reaped by others. He was upset, however, that the Mets, who had finished third, 15 games out of first place, in 1976, had made no effort to sign any of the new free agents. He made note that despite a glaring need for offense and a significant financial advantage over their competitors, Grant and general manager Joe McDonald had failed to make a bona fide offer for center fielder Gary Matthews, who looked like a perfect fit for the Mets but wound up signing a five-year, $1.2 million deal with the Atlanta Braves.

"How can you not even try?" Seaver had asked in an impromptu session with the writers at the Mets' spring training complex in St. Petersburg on Feb. 26, 1977.

As for his own contract, which had been finally settled after a lot of public acrimony with (board chairman M. Donald) Grant, Seaver said: "I was made an example of. I was pictured as the ingrate after nine years with the club. I was to be punished. And even now, a year later, I still resent the way they did it."

Thirty years later, Seaver still feels nothing but contempt for Grant, who died at 94 in November 1998.

"There are two things Grant said to me that I'll never forget, but illustrate the kind of person he was and the total 'plantation' mentality he had," Seaver says. "During the labor negotiations, he came up to me in the clubhouse once and said: 'What are you, some sort of Communist?' Another time, and I've never told anyone this, he said to me: 'Who do you think you are, joining the Greenwich Country Club?' It was incomprehensible to him if you didn't understand his feelings about your station in life."

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/true-story-midnight-massacre-article-1.224970

saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 29 January 2013 17:10 (seven years ago) link

two months pass...

bump!

still hoping to see the Yankees/Oakland game on Friday 3rd May - can I just buy a ticket on the day?

Ward Fowler, Tuesday, 16 April 2013 12:01 (six years ago) link

if you know you're going then get them in advance from http://www.stubhub.com/new-york-yankees-tickets/yankees-vs-athletics-5-3-2013-4168610/

caek, Tuesday, 16 April 2013 12:14 (six years ago) link

/gabbneb

caek, Tuesday, 16 April 2013 12:14 (six years ago) link

Thanks caek, will do that - any particular place I should sit?

Ward Fowler, Tuesday, 16 April 2013 12:27 (six years ago) link

to answer that would be truly gabbnebian, but the one time i went i sat in 420A

caek, Tuesday, 16 April 2013 12:34 (six years ago) link

behind first base (413) is good too. Try not to sit in the first row of a section, you have assholes walking past for 3 hours.

Pope Rusty I (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 16 April 2013 12:57 (six years ago) link

morbs i did not like my visit to the yankees. didn't particularly like the mets either. are the any nyc minor league teams you recommend for drinking in the sunshine?

caek, Tuesday, 16 April 2013 13:19 (six years ago) link

well, the Brooklyn Cyclones play in Coney Island if that's your tourist-friendly destination. Always plentiful tix for the Staten Island Yankees too, right by the ferry dock.

Pope Rusty I (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 16 April 2013 14:32 (six years ago) link

thanks morbs

upthread you wrote this, and am wondering how you are fixed now:

MoMA is horribly overcrowded at all times, but I could get you in cheap if I knew my going-out status for late April.

Ward Fowler, Tuesday, 16 April 2013 14:34 (six years ago) link

thanks morbs i will be there from june, let's go to some games

caek, Tuesday, 16 April 2013 14:41 (six years ago) link

two weeks pass...

hello yankees fans, i am typing this from an internet cafe on 8th avenue - probably won't see the interweb again before i return to the UK tomorrow

anyway, i have bought a ticket for tonight's 'match'. section 413 was sold out, but i am in 412, row 13 seat 3. if any of you are in the same area, say hello to the john-peel-looking dude sat there.

go yankees!

Ward Fowler, Friday, 3 May 2013 15:23 (six years ago) link

no yankees!

Sorry I didn't see that last MoMA post, and you paid $20 if you saw the full museum... I wound up not going yesterday.

Pope Rusty I (Dr Morbius), Friday, 3 May 2013 15:40 (six years ago) link

Yankees lineup is bizarre.

One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Saturday, 4 May 2013 01:47 (six years ago) link

no prob morbs, in fact moma entrance is $25 bucks now, but i did get to see the avant-garde films for that, too, so didn't feel short-changed.

yankees experience was pretty bizarre - wasn't prepared for the guy playing 'i'm a yankee doodle dandy' on the organ intermittently throughout the game! - but i'm glad i went. yankees lost!

Ward Fowler, Monday, 6 May 2013 11:48 (six years ago) link

hey dr morbius, what's up?

also, this is awesome and i bet you would like it: http://scouts.baseballhall.org/

your holiness, we have an official energy drink (Z S), Thursday, 9 May 2013 04:37 (six years ago) link

thx Z, i'd heard about it. Didn't realize it was that exhaustive tho.

ballin' from Maine to Mexico (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 9 May 2013 12:49 (six years ago) link

Hey Dr Morbius (and everyone),

Fell in love with baseball last year so I am newbie.
What is the best stats/metric for judging a pitcher? Seems like win/loss isn't working.
Is WHIP reliable?

Van Horn Street, Saturday, 11 May 2013 21:08 (six years ago) link

"How do I convince my occasional friend and would-be baseball nerd that Jeff Karsens is not a good pitcher and that these two starts are outliers in an otherwise unextraordinary career? He seems to think that the Yanquis got snookered in the Nady/Marte trade.

-- Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved, Sunday, August 10, 2008 4:16 PM (0 seconds ago) Bookmark Link"

everything is awful

VHS, I do not think there is *one* metric if that's what you're asking.

I look at WAR now and then, and BB9, SO9, HR9. Or just the raw stats and maybe do some rough adjustments in my head.

For any single year, a hits allowed rate can be too flukey, I think.

ballin' from Maine to Mexico (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 11 May 2013 22:27 (six years ago) link

one month passes...

Do you have any idea what is wrong with Lincecum?
It's surely a tired subject but once again I'm late on the whole sports.

Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 12 June 2013 13:12 (six years ago) link

I don't watch him or read enough about the Giants to say definitively, but I believe it's been documented that he's lost a substantial amount of velocity -- and movement as well, presumably?

ballin' from Maine to Mexico (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 12 June 2013 14:44 (six years ago) link

I guess the general consensus is that his mechanics weren't sustainable. Still hoping for a comeback.

Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 12 June 2013 15:27 (six years ago) link

tbf he ran into a buzz saw last night amirite

mookieproof, Wednesday, 12 June 2013 20:31 (six years ago) link

two months pass...

do you want me to pick one of these up for you while i'm in little rock?

http://distilleryimage4.ak.instagram.com/377107dc078211e39de722000a9e5e38_7.jpg

caek, Sunday, 18 August 2013 15:55 (six years ago) link

echhhhhh

Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Monday, 19 August 2013 04:27 (six years ago) link

(the one time I laid eyes on Billy Blythe was about ten years ago; he was on the field during batting practice at Shea Stadium)

Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Monday, 19 August 2013 04:28 (six years ago) link

six months pass...

favorite ylt song?

favorite fmu dj?

mookieproof, Friday, 21 February 2014 05:04 (five years ago) link

langella, hopkins, cusack: who played the best nixon? or, alternately, marry, fuck, kill?

james franco, Friday, 21 February 2014 05:07 (five years ago) link

franco or la beef?

mookieproof, Friday, 21 February 2014 05:12 (five years ago) link

favorite met?

favorite phillie (non-ironic)?

mookieproof, Friday, 21 February 2014 05:17 (five years ago) link

wth

Haven't seen Cusack's Nixon... Hopkins was alright, not as good as Jason Robards in Washington Behind Closed Doors or Aykroyd on SNL

obv my fave Met all-time is #41, Wright right now

Phillie I'll go with Ashburn or Tug

my fave YLT song is "Tom Courtenay"

images of war violence and historical smoking (Dr Morbius), Friday, 21 February 2014 13:30 (five years ago) link

tom scharpling overrated? 14 yrs x 48 broadcasts x 3 hours and all thats left is 6-7 hours of truly classic material. seems like Wurster did all the heavy lifting anyway.

action bronson pinchot (sanskrit), Friday, 21 February 2014 13:54 (five years ago) link

two years pass...

Do you bang the desk with your fist before every post? I read all your posts this way now and it is a great deal of fun. Especially on non-political threads. I imagine pens and pencils and loose papers scattering, teacups clattering on their saucers.

Anacostia Aerodrome (El Tomboto), Monday, 12 September 2016 20:27 (three years ago) link

i am like a duck... still above the surface

do you have a baseball question? have you been to a Nats game this year?

The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Monday, 12 September 2016 20:31 (three years ago) link

also, i am on 'scription roids; i'd break the desk in half.

The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Monday, 12 September 2016 20:38 (three years ago) link

tom scharpling overrated? 14 yrs x 48 broadcasts x 3 hours and all thats left is 6-7 hours of truly classic material. seems like Wurster did all the heavy lifting anyway.

― action bronson pinchot (sanskrit), Friday, February 21, 2014 8:54 AM (two years ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I'm gonna go with yes, btw, usually didn't enjoy the Best Show all that much when I listened. Whereas I find Seven Second Delay fairly consistently amusing.

the last famous person you were surprised to discover was actually (man alive), Monday, 12 September 2016 20:43 (three years ago) link

one year passes...

I've been getting deeper into film this year, but film writing on the internet seems really dire. Can you recommend anyone worth following/reading that actually talks about film/filmmaking and isn't just A) longform otaku nerd twaddle, B) identifying "tropes" masquerading as criticism or C) audits on how woke movies are

"the fgti incident?" (Whiney G. Weingarten), Monday, 20 November 2017 14:34 (two years ago) link

i'll get back to you, but w/ a historical bent maybe start here:

http://www.davidbordwell.net/blog/

shd've thrown in a baseball ref

ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Monday, 20 November 2017 14:39 (two years ago) link

word, def looking for something on new films too.

I just watched 'The Square' and looked at the wiki and saw this sentence "Vice.com reviewer R0d Bastanm3hr hailed it as a timely satire taking aim at contemporary art patrons.[46]" and am under a cloud of misery and anger that an observation so banal and surface-level was a professional writer's big takeaway from such an ambitious film

"the fgti incident?" (Whiney G. Weingarten), Monday, 20 November 2017 15:05 (two years ago) link

I don't gaf about Star Wars or superhero movies, fan service is ruining everything, TV is not better than movies, destroy all reboots, etc

"the fgti incident?" (Whiney G. Weingarten), Monday, 20 November 2017 15:10 (two years ago) link

four months pass...

bump

like æ duce says, smell my anvil vapre (Whiney G. Weingarten), Wednesday, 11 April 2018 19:31 (one year ago) link

i like this guy

https://letterboxd.com/msicism/

and also the Effectively Wild baseball podcast.

the ignatius rock of ignorance (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 12 April 2018 06:35 (one year ago) link

one year passes...

Dear Dr. Morbius,
Did you know that many years ago Joyce Dewitt and Orson Bean were married, for a period of about 3 months?

This was apparently some prank on Wikipedia.

TS: Kirk/Spock vs. Hitchcock/Truffaut (James Redd and the Blecchs), Saturday, 8 February 2020 13:56 (one week ago) link

probably saw each other in the green room a lot

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 8 February 2020 15:49 (one week ago) link


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