If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.
― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:30 AM (six days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
Paul Goldschmidt probably fits the bill. Judge was a Top 100 prospect though, which Goldschmidt never was.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9218&position=1B
― voodoo chili, Wednesday, 12 July 2017 14:15 (six years ago) link
Judge vs. Newton:
http://www.si.com/mlb/2017/07/13/yankees-aaron-judge-home-run-derby-roof-nasa
(Goldschmidt's pretty good, although he was dominant every stop of the way in the minors.)
― clemenza, Friday, 14 July 2017 03:34 (six years ago) link
What age did Josh Hamilton make his MLB debut?
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 14 July 2017 03:41 (six years ago) link
Unique circumstances, obviously, but Hamilton debuted at 26 (and had his first big season at 27), so there's some relation there.
No one's mentioned him, but to me, the most cautionary parallel might be Ryan Howard. I know Howard's viewed as a joke now, but he came up at 24, got in half a season at 25--both partial seasons were strong--and at 26 he hit 58 HR with a slash line of .313/.425/.659. Even after adjustments (OPS+ = 167), it was a phenomenal year.
I'm not saying Aaron Judge is Ryan Howard, and there are lots of cautionary parallels for Bellinger, too. But that might be the downside (and Howard did get in five good years).
― clemenza, Friday, 14 July 2017 13:21 (six years ago) link
Last night, Aaron Judge struck out in his 36th consecutive game, breaking an ignominious single-season record previously held by pitcher Bill Stoneman in 1971. Adam Dunn fanned in 36 consecutive games between the 2011 and 2012 seasons.
― Karl Malone, Sunday, 20 August 2017 16:44 (six years ago) link
'unstoppable'
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 20 August 2017 16:53 (six years ago) link
we're all told not to reveal how we're voting for AL rookie of the year but I will say when I write my article you can feel free to skip it— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) September 25, 2017
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Monday, 25 September 2017 17:43 (six years ago) link
49, tying mcgwire
― mookieproof, Monday, 25 September 2017 17:53 (six years ago) link
resumed being unstoppable.
― nomar, Monday, 25 September 2017 18:07 (six years ago) link
.301/.438/.863 in Sept
might win him points with the Strong Finish demo
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Monday, 25 September 2017 18:23 (six years ago) link
as of yesterday both Judge and McGwire had achieved an OPS+ of 164 in their rookie year. not sure how the metrics would bear out but Judge's season looks a bit more impressive right now -- they're very, very similar but AJ has scored 122 runs to McGwire's 97, and walked 119 times to McGwire's 71. I guess there's also the 1987 thing to take into account, but of course 2017 seems like a 1987 type season so idk.
― nomar, Monday, 25 September 2017 18:27 (six years ago) link
isn't OPS+ relative to the league/year?
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Monday, 25 September 2017 18:35 (six years ago) link
yeah
― k3vin k., Monday, 25 September 2017 18:40 (six years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKl7vNtW4AAI8Iu.jpg:small
― mookieproof, Monday, 25 September 2017 19:21 (six years ago) link
awesome, hope he goes on to make a billion dollars
― frogbs, Monday, 25 September 2017 22:20 (six years ago) link
Heard this morning he's the sixth 50-HR/120-BB guy (arbitrary cut-offs, I know)...Bonds, Ruth, Foxx for sure; my other two guesses would be McGwire and Thome.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 11:53 (six years ago) link
Wasn't sure about the last spot, but that's it; Thome had a 52-122 season, Sosa 64-116. McGwire was walking more than I'd remembered--162 the year he hit 70.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 11:57 (six years ago) link
not ted williams?
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 26 September 2017 12:06 (six years ago) link
huh, forgot he only hit 40 homers in a season once
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 26 September 2017 12:07 (six years ago) link
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/aaron-judge-was-amazing-aaron-judge-was-a-bum-now-hes-amazing-again/
On that list of greatest rookie seasons, I've never even heard of Benny Kauff (#5).
― clemenza, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 21:29 (six years ago) link
Corey: Now that we seen the best and worst of Judge in a 13 month span (twice), any expectations for what his baseline will be?12:30 Dave Cameron: Stanton with more walks.12:30 Dave Cameron: A top-3 MLB hitter, basically.12:30 Troutmaggedon: If you were building a team would you rather have Bellinger or Judge going forward?12:31 Dave Cameron: Judge
― k3vin k., Thursday, 28 September 2017 12:17 (six years ago) link
Co-sign. Of all the athletes I’ve ever interviewed or featured, Judge is in the top echelon as far as being a quality human being https://t.co/HmyLhLF53F— Kyle Glaser (@KyleAGlaser) October 19, 2017
when writers badmouth players i always take it with a grain of salt -- could be nothing more than 'he wasn't talkative/didn't give me the quotes i needed to make my story good' -- but when they're praising you as a person you might be doing something right
― mookieproof, Thursday, 19 October 2017 13:56 (six years ago) link
Michael Baumann on today's Ringer podcast (in the middle of a beautiful 10-minute anti-"plucky"-Yankees rant): Judge is "as bland and boring as Derek Jeter."
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Friday, 20 October 2017 00:24 (six years ago) link
cartilage cleanup!
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/aaron-judge-shoulder-surgery-monday-yankees-announce-article-1.3648991
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 22 November 2017 13:05 (six years ago) link
Judge winning out in the unofficial competition against Bellinger once again.
― omar little, Sunday, 13 May 2018 04:48 (five years ago) link
His BABIP is again freakishly high at .363 (.357 last year). He's .353 for his career now, which would put him tied for 7th on this (five-year-old) career list if he had enough AB, with four of the guys ahead of him only there because of their historic batting averages:
http://waswatching.com/2013/06/24/highest-career-babip-min-3000-pa/
Can he keep this up? I don't know--I expected him to come back to earth this year, and thus far he hasn't.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 4 July 2018 16:06 (five years ago) link
it's not that high given his skillset...he hits the ball really hard, runs well, and doesn't pop it up a lot. he's going to run high BABIPs
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 4 July 2018 16:26 (five years ago) link
Would much rather have Bellinger.
― clemenza,
i appreciate bold claims like this, i really do! and after last year, it was at least a plausible viewpoint, especially considering bellinger's relative youth.
but i must ask you now - would you still rather have cody bellinger?
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 17:44 (five years ago) link
Is Judge even going to come back this season?
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 7 August 2018 18:00 (five years ago) link
maybe after Labor Day, sounds like
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 7 August 2018 18:26 (five years ago) link
tbh i kinda forgot he was even injured, but i guess he's supposed to back in a couple of weeks. no surgery.
xpost
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 18:26 (five years ago) link
Karl--I honestly didn't view preferring Bellinger at that point to be very bold; it was completely in line with a lot of research (by James, whose credibility I realize is pretty shaky on this board) as to the future prospects of a 21-year-old vs. a 25-year-old. That's a four-year window; that's quite a jump. Add to that all of Judge's strikeouts and park factors, and it looked like an obvious pick to me. Bellinger also had a pretty historic season last year.
Right now, it obviously looks bad; it'd be an easy time to second-guess. I'm still willing to give it a couple years...that's the whole idea of the window, I think, that Bellinger is young enough that he may not yet be close to where he ends up.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 20:46 (five years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnJuBgmWwAERpN0.jpg:small
― mookieproof, Saturday, 15 September 2018 19:51 (five years ago) link
Bellinger's having a okay year:
.261/.344/.471 (.267/.352/.581 last year)120 OPS+ (143)3.6 WAR (4.2)2B, BB, K the same (in 40 extra AB)
Basically the same season...with the one big difference very significant: 15 fewer home runs. If this is were he levels off, he's nothing special. But he's still only 22, so he's got time.
(Previous discussion will explain why I'm posting this here.)
― clemenza, Monday, 17 September 2018 12:31 (five years ago) link
"where he levels off"
― clemenza, Monday, 17 September 2018 12:32 (five years ago) link
And not helped by his park:
.245/.331/.484 at home for his career, .281/.364/.562 on the road.
― clemenza, Monday, 17 September 2018 12:34 (five years ago) link
Aaron Judge returns to the #Yankees lineup: pic.twitter.com/IDENp1GwYs— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) September 18, 2018
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 18 September 2018 20:07 (five years ago) link
I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.
― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 2:24 PM (one year ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
¯\(°_o)/¯
― omar little, Wednesday, 29 May 2019 00:16 (four years ago) link
Bellinger and Judge are pretty close now for their careers--Judge still has a slight edge (which might surprise, but his advantage after two seasons was huge):
B: .278/.368/.562, 108 HR, 145 OPS+, 16.7 WARJ: .273/.394/.552, 103 HR, 150 OPS+, 17.4 WAR
I doubt Bellinger will continue at anywhere near the level of this year (which is mostly attributable to his phenomenal start), but the four years he has on Judge may really start to show up in the next few seasons.
― clemenza, Saturday, 7 September 2019 15:30 (four years ago) link
bellinger's second half (.940 OPS) is still better than judge's season (.886), and that's despite bellinger's second-half BABIP dropping to an unreasonable .252
idk how sustainable this is on bellinger's part, but his K rate this season is 16.4% while judge's is 31%, and he's still generating more power. that's remarkable
― mookieproof, Saturday, 7 September 2019 18:19 (four years ago) link
Was at Dodger stadium a few days ago, sitting in the clouds, and it was remarkable to see where Bellinger stands in the box, as far back as possible which is normal but as close to the plate as he could get. With his standing stance he only occupied about maybe 1/8 of the box in total
― calstars, Saturday, 7 September 2019 21:45 (four years ago) link
One thing that has fluctuated with Bellinger (someone pointed this out on a game I was listening to) are his platoon splits. First year, even; second year, left-handers killed him; 2019, he's hitting right-handers a little better, but not a big difference. It would seem that the middle year was the anomaly.
― clemenza, Sunday, 8 September 2019 00:23 (four years ago) link
Two seasons shortened by injury plus two COVID seasons, this one not nearly finished, but has Judge ever been consistent since his big rookie season:
2018: .278/.392/.5282019: .272/.381/.540 2020: .257/.336/.5542021: .272/.385/.568
― clemenza, Saturday, 1 May 2021 18:37 (three years ago) link
Being healthy is a skill
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Saturday, 1 May 2021 23:16 (three years ago) link
I was working hard to keep all my told-you-so's in check during Bellinger's MVP year, but I'm starting to have doubts again as to whose long-term prospects are better.
― clemenza, Sunday, 2 May 2021 00:13 (three years ago) link
Big judge
― calstars, Sunday, 2 May 2021 00:27 (three years ago) link
Slash line killah
― calstars, Sunday, 2 May 2021 00:28 (three years ago) link
https://i.imgur.com/S9nWvhH.png
― Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 11 August 2021 19:09 (two years ago) link
what am i looking at here
should i be 'reading between the lines' Zach?
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 11 August 2021 21:13 (two years ago) link
nothing shocking, just a chart showing wOBA for bellinger (blue line) and judge (black line). the green line is the MLB average. bellinger's really fallen off this year, and wasn't great last year!
why these two? i have no idea why i still think about this, but bellinger and judge are always connected in my mind due to a bold prediction clemenza made a few years ago but how who would be better. i cannot think about either one without immediately thinking about the other now, lol
― Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 11 August 2021 21:16 (two years ago) link