aaron judge needs his own thread

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wRC+ of 198 halfway through his rookie season :O

k3vin k., Thursday, 6 July 2017 04:50 (seven years ago) link

this dude is ridiculous. unlike Bellinger over in the NL, he seems unstoppable.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 04:52 (seven years ago) link

Would much rather have Bellinger.

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 04:59 (seven years ago) link

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

k3vin k., Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:02 (seven years ago) link

what's the case for bellinger over judge?

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:08 (seven years ago) link

the same solid and unassailable case that was made for Dave Justice over Frank Thomas.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:15 (seven years ago) link

Bellinger is 21 and Judge is 25, so he's got 2-3 seasons left til his peak would hit. Bellinger has more time but I'm not 100% convinced on him being at this level all the time going forward.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:16 (seven years ago) link

though the history of guys his age hitting like this is a pretty good one, especially if you're a dodger fan.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:17 (seven years ago) link

yeah, i think they'll both probably be prettttty good

but judge seems like an absolute monster

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:18 (seven years ago) link

It seems fairly self-evident to me.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week; Judge is 25. A three-plus year difference at this age is generally a reliable marker of growth potential.

Bellinger's ascension has been rapid and makes sense. His slugging averages in the minors, starting at age 17, have been .358, .474, .538, .515, .627. So .620 this year doesn't strike me as entirely unexpected. Judge's, starting at age 22, read .483, .448, .489, .345 (majors), and .689 this year. I'm just skeptical about that--how many guys learn to hit when they turn 25?

Might be totally wrong, but I'd much rather have the 22-year-old with some clear foundation for his success this year (in a much tougher hitter's park, no less).

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:19 (seven years ago) link

but hmm...Judge...Justice...they should get together with Vance Law and play a tourney.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:20 (seven years ago) link

i'd be skeptical if he was just mashing dongs, Kingman-style. he's a triple crown threat, though.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:20 (seven years ago) link

I don't remember anybody--anybody serious, anyway--thinking that Dave Justice had a brighter future than Frank Thomas in 1991. Besides which, it was Justice who was two years older...

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:21 (seven years ago) link

that was a bit of a joke, i didn't do the scouting before i made it. i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:23 (seven years ago) link

Judge's HR are impressive, no argument there, but I've got to be skeptical about the batting average. He's struck out 102 times in 286 AB and he's hitting .330. His BABIP (yes, I've been reduced to trotting out BABIP) is .420-something--as has been pointed out here, in the neighborhood of Babe Ruth's 1923 season.

I'm enjoying Judge's season, and he's probably already clinched the MVP (the three Houston guys are going to split all their votes). But I would take Bellinger without a second thought.

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:27 (seven years ago) link

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:30 (seven years ago) link

if this year is any indication, though, bellinger's poor defense might dull any offensive edge he has on judge

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:31 (seven years ago) link

i guess i just don't agree that judge came out of nowhere. his wRC+:

2014 (A - 65 games) 167
2014 (A+ - 66 games) 149
2015 (AA - 63 games) 147
2015 (AAA - 61 games) 98
2016 (AAA - 93 games) 147
2016 (MLB - 27 games) 63
2017 (MLB - 80 games) 196

his outliers are 1) his time in 2015 AAA, which, i don't know, and 2) his 27 games with the yankees last year, which is too small of a sample and his cup of coffee, to boot. in general, he's been around 150 wRC+ since he hit professional baseball, so him kicking ass this year isn't too surprising to me. he'll come down to earth at some point, but i expect that he'll come back to around 150 wRC+ again

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:45 (seven years ago) link

(i'm using his wRC+ rather than his rate stats because i have no idea what leagues or stadiums judge or bellinger played in during their minor league careers, so it seems better to use a stat that's league-adjusted)

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:47 (seven years ago) link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKXhSZjMYIk

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 6 July 2017 06:06 (seven years ago) link

(xxpost) Good stuff--that does give a clearer picture. I went back and looked at league batting leaders for 2014-A and 2016-AAA, and he was third in OPS in A, 10th in AAA, so they were indeed pitcher's leagues. I still think the age gap is significant, though.

Obviously the most scientific way to settle this will be the Home Run Derby.

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 13:08 (seven years ago) link

Judge is making me kinda like the Yankees, so clearly the man knows how to do the impossible

frogbs, Thursday, 6 July 2017 13:17 (seven years ago) link

I don't care for age, right now I'm taking Judge. There is no way he ain't regressing; although who knows with Yankee Stadium + juiced ball. He'll remain a monster for a while I'm now certain.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 6 July 2017 20:59 (seven years ago) link

it's easier to root for judge bc his name isn't cody

na (NA), Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:01 (seven years ago) link

Also, there is a bunch of players under age 23 I'm taking over Bellinger.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:04 (seven years ago) link

Judge's Ks don't bother me because he's also leading the league in walks and runs scored, and his BABIP doesn't trouble me or give me false hope because he just hits the ball so hard consistently. he really is having a Frank Thomas/Pujols type season (yes w/more Ks but then again Trout struck out 184 times the year he won his first MVP award.)

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:23 (seven years ago) link

I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:24 (seven years ago) link

Bellinger will turn 22 next week;

Is '17 considered his age-21 or age-22 season?

Cannibal Adderley (WilliamC), Friday, 7 July 2017 01:34 (seven years ago) link

21

mookieproof, Friday, 7 July 2017 01:55 (seven years ago) link

Judge is probably ending any chance of Harper going to the Yankees so far that I enjoy him.

Van Horn Street, Friday, 7 July 2017 02:50 (seven years ago) link

Fangraphs had a piece on this 10 days ago:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-judge-or-cody-bellinger/

They don't really come down on either side. Their last sentence is good:

"And that’s the simple fact that may push some to pick the Dodgers’ first baseman: those three years of catchup that Bellinger has on Judge are very valuable. Even if it looks like just a couple ticks of strikeout rate, a few more walks, and maybe a little better work in the field, it will all add up.

Consider this, though: it might all add up...so that Cody Bellinger is about the same as we’re seeing from Aaron Judge, right now."

clemenza, Friday, 7 July 2017 17:30 (seven years ago) link

or he might be Puig.

Van Horn Street, Friday, 7 July 2017 17:40 (seven years ago) link

puig was never this good!

k3vin k., Friday, 7 July 2017 17:44 (seven years ago) link

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 1:30 AM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

insert albert pujols age joke here

ciderpress, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:13 (seven years ago) link

ryan braun another guy who 4-digit OPSed his rookie season though he was 23

ciderpress, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:18 (seven years ago) link

insert albert pujols age joke here

― ciderpress, Friday, July 7, 2017 11:13 AM (sixteen minutes ago)

Better age 37 OPS: Albert Pujols or Craig Counsell?

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 7 July 2017 18:34 (seven years ago) link

pretty decent chance Albert's career WAR drops below 100 this season. also damn it's extremely possible that Counsell will win that battle having hit .226 with 1 HR that season.

nomar, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:43 (seven years ago) link

albert should retire immediately and lock in that 100 before he loses it

ciderpress, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:44 (seven years ago) link

puig was never this good!

― k3vin k., Friday, July 7, 2017 1:44 PM (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

Van Horn Street, Saturday, 8 July 2017 00:32 (seven years ago) link

#WIGS

c (calstars), Saturday, 8 July 2017 01:08 (seven years ago) link

Can we please add intra-ilx tagging

c (calstars), Saturday, 8 July 2017 01:09 (seven years ago) link

30

mookieproof, Saturday, 8 July 2017 01:57 (seven years ago) link

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

^^oh yeah fair, i thought we were comparing judge to puig

k3vin k., Saturday, 8 July 2017 02:00 (seven years ago) link

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/charbjo01.shtml

nomar, Saturday, 8 July 2017 04:20 (seven years ago) link

roll me over romeo

mookieproof, Saturday, 8 July 2017 04:23 (seven years ago) link

the rookie record is mcgwire with 49 btw O_O

k3vin k., Saturday, 8 July 2017 06:36 (seven years ago) link

lol, judge at home run derby is indeed quite the show.

Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 11 July 2017 01:23 (seven years ago) link

absurd

k3vin k., Tuesday, 11 July 2017 01:26 (seven years ago) link

sheesh

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 11 July 2017 02:04 (seven years ago) link

The 500-footers were amazing but the several pop-ups that just happened to go out were too.

Cannibal Adderley (WilliamC), Tuesday, 11 July 2017 02:53 (seven years ago) link

Yeah, I have a feeling he'll be fine. Just a hunch.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 13 September 2024 16:19 (five months ago) link

Omen of a hunch, concept of a plan--good call.

clemenza, Saturday, 14 September 2024 02:47 (five months ago) link

we back

brony james (k3vin k.), Saturday, 14 September 2024 06:06 (five months ago) link

Triple Crown definitely within range: HR/RBI safe, eight points behind Witt for the batting lead (and one ahead of Vlad).

clemenza, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 16:54 (four months ago) link

hopes are fading but i'm still rooting for that satisfying-looking 60 hr/150 RBI season.

omar little, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 16:57 (four months ago) link

Had to check, of course: just Sosa (twice!) and Ruth.

clemenza, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 17:01 (four months ago) link

Sammy almost had two 60/160 seasons. his 2001 was something else. probably had a really good energy drink he was mainlining.

omar little, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 17:13 (four months ago) link

may have been 'leaded coffee' in the clubhouse

, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 17:31 (four months ago) link

btw top ten oWAR seasons of all time --

Barry Bonds (2001) - 12.4
Babe Ruth (1923) - 12.3
Babe Ruth (1921) - 12.2
Barry Bonds (2002) - 11.8
Babe Ruth (1920) - 11.8
Barry Bonds (2004) - 11.5
Rogers Hornsby (1924) - 11.5
Aaron Judge (2024) - 11.4
Babe Ruth (1927) - 11.4
Honus Wagner (1908) - 11.4

the rest of the double-digit oWAR guys are all pre-WW2 except for three Mantle seasons, one from Musial, one from Williams, another from Judge, and one from Trout.

omar little, Wednesday, 25 September 2024 17:52 (four months ago) link

If you throw PEDs and segregation into the mix, I don't think it's unreasonable to say we're watching the greatest offensive season ever (MLB, anyway).

clemenza, Wednesday, 25 September 2024 18:08 (four months ago) link

love throwing PEDs and segregation into the mix

brony james (k3vin k.), Wednesday, 25 September 2024 19:19 (four months ago) link

I dont care about PEDs

Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Wednesday, 25 September 2024 20:06 (four months ago) link

The most impressive thing to me about Judge (and Ohtani, and anybody else who plays today) is this, which I needed someone to spell out to me clearly, with numbers:

aaron judge needs his own thread

Here's Bonds facing the starter for the 4th time in those three seasons on the WAR list (2001/2/4):

2001: 16 AB, 4 HR, .438/.571/1.188
2002: 12 AB, 1 HR, .167/.474/.500
2004: 13 AB, 3 HR, .539/.667/1.308

Total: 41 AB, 8 HR, .390/.569/1.024

Judge never faces a starter for the 4th time.

(I will mention, though, he's at his best in 2024 facing starters for the first time; he's a little worse the second time, and worse still the third time. That's weird...)

clemenza, Wednesday, 25 September 2024 20:36 (four months ago) link

Judge never faces a starter for the 4th time.

Bonds never faced a pitcher on a pitch timer.

Mrs. Ippei (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 25 September 2024 23:32 (four months ago) link

Is there clear evidence that's hurting hitters? In 2022, the year before the pitch clock came in, teams scored 4.28 runs per game:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022.shtml

In 2023, first year with the clock, that went up to 4.62 runs per game:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023.shtml

This year, back down to 4.40:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024.shtml

That's just one factor, there are obviously others. So I don't know.

clemenza, Thursday, 26 September 2024 01:26 (four months ago) link

A big part of the pitch-clock coming in was batters constantly calling time and stepping out, right?

The rule change stipulates the following:

The pitcher must begin his motion to deliver the pitch before the expiration of the pitch timer. Pitchers who violate the timer are charged with an automatic ball. Batters who violate the timer are charged with an automatic strike.

Batters must be in the box and alert to the pitcher by the 8-second mark or else be charged with an automatic strike.

clemenza, Thursday, 26 September 2024 01:33 (four months ago) link

I garbled the point...You're saying Judge is helped by the pitch clock and pitchers are hurt. Maybe, maybe not; the rule affects both parties. First runs went up (see, it hurts pitchers), this they're they're down (wait, maybe it hurts batters).

clemenza, Thursday, 26 September 2024 01:47 (four months ago) link

"this year they're down"

clemenza, Thursday, 26 September 2024 01:48 (four months ago) link

Ohtani got his 400th TB last night; Judge needs 8 more in 3 games, so he's right on target.

clemenza, Friday, 27 September 2024 15:14 (four months ago) link

i can't believe he could still get to 60 after april and that two week jag this month

Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 27 September 2024 15:18 (four months ago) link

I had to check (I realize you could do this with most great seasons):

May 1 on: 126 games, 52 HR, 126 RBI, .356/.492/.785

Aug. 26 - Sept. 8: 12 games, 0 HR, 3 RBI, .186/.340/.256

Just the good stuff: 114 games, 52 HR, 123 RBI, .375/.514/.843

Bonds, 2001: 153 games, 73 HR, 137 RBI, .328/.515/.863

That's basically a wash, I'd say--50 points of batting average on Judge's side, 20 points of slugging to Bonds. Judge maintained that for almost 3/4 of the season, Bonds maintained it the whole way.

clemenza, Friday, 27 September 2024 18:21 (four months ago) link

Plus (if you care), you know the rest.

clemenza, Friday, 27 September 2024 18:22 (four months ago) link

including park factors, Bonds gets +2.0 Wins added to his fWAR over Judge.

Mrs. Ippei (Steve Shasta), Friday, 27 September 2024 19:01 (four months ago) link

Judge not in the lineup tonight. I get it, but I don't get it.

clemenza, Saturday, 28 September 2024 01:04 (four months ago) link

scared of the pirates imo

mookieproof, Saturday, 28 September 2024 01:09 (four months ago) link

0-5 with 5 Ks today. washed

brony james (k3vin k.), Sunday, 29 September 2024 02:24 (four months ago) link

you age past 30 and you start getting those two day hangovers

hott ogo (voodoo chili), Sunday, 29 September 2024 02:41 (four months ago) link

congrats on judge for the best offensive season by a right handed batter of all time

brony james (k3vin k.), Monday, 30 September 2024 04:41 (four months ago) link

Wow. Imagine his season without the paw patrol curse!!

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 30 September 2024 05:13 (four months ago) link

three weeks pass...

This sucks. I’m rooting for him to do something.

I’ll occasionally have a nightmare where I relive a bad slump I had during my junior year! I’m 40!

Allen (etaeoe), Sunday, 27 October 2024 14:48 (three months ago) link

one month passes...

https://i.imgur.com/rKSZVmq.jpeg

calstars, Saturday, 30 November 2024 06:22 (two months ago) link

so judge is a trumper? say it aint so

, Friday, 13 December 2024 13:32 (two months ago) link

That quote is fake

gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 13:34 (two months ago) link

phew! it aint so!

, Friday, 13 December 2024 13:40 (two months ago) link

He is however one of those guys whose bio starts “Christian” which ime never a great sign, but that paragraph doing the rounds is super fake and Judge has never spoken out about his politics in any real way that I can recall besides supporting BLM vocally & telling Josh Donaldson publicly to drop his Tim Anderson baiting. People only believed it cos Volpe follows Trump & Don Jr on Instagram.

gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 13:44 (two months ago) link

verdugo seems like the most obvious trumper on that team

, Friday, 13 December 2024 13:45 (two months ago) link

Going by his brother on Twitter, that would be extremely surprising. His brother is extremely vocal about hating Trump. Not saying siblings can’t have different views but considering they’re supposed to be very close and how polarising that would be, I couldn’t see it.

gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 13:56 (two months ago) link

Anyway they just signed Max Fried who is one of the few baseball players who is open about being (relatively speaking, for baseball) on the left.

gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 14:00 (two months ago) link

huh don’t judge a book by its cover i guess i was just going off vibes xp

, Friday, 13 December 2024 14:03 (two months ago) link

Can confirm Mark Vientos has good politics

gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 14:05 (two months ago) link

Canha too

Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 13 December 2024 14:34 (two months ago) link

re: judge not speaking to soto, he explained himself a bit here (from november): https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42548266/aaron-judge-giving-free-agent-juan-soto-space-make-choice

now TAYNE i can get into (voodoo chili), Friday, 13 December 2024 14:35 (two months ago) link

seems like he wanted space to make his own free agency decision without outside pressure, and felt soto would want the same. seems like he miscalculated.

now TAYNE i can get into (voodoo chili), Friday, 13 December 2024 14:37 (two months ago) link

the trump stuff was obviously fake because brandon nimmo is an aubrey huff-level conservative and soto just signed up to play with him for nearly a decade

now TAYNE i can get into (voodoo chili), Friday, 13 December 2024 14:39 (two months ago) link

I mean half those Washington Nationals were big Trump guys - Phillies might be the single most pro Trump clubhouse in the league based on the fact that so many of them have either made no secret of their politics and also how vocally antivaxx many of their biggest names are or were.

https://www.phillyvoice.com/phillies-covid-vaccine-girardi-alec-bohm-aaron-nola-baseball-philadelphia-mlb/

gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 14:44 (two months ago) link

I'm fairly sure that 70-80% of American baseball players vote Republican (including for Trump). It's the (mostly) white, small-town raised, church-going, multi-millionaire demographic. It is what it is. I still enjoy watching baseball.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 13 December 2024 17:02 (two months ago) link

Yeah that’s about right.

gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 17:06 (two months ago) link

that's why it's fun to find secret lefties like spencer strider

now TAYNE i can get into (voodoo chili), Friday, 13 December 2024 17:22 (two months ago) link

on top of that they're all on micro-community travel ball teams and they all sit around watching the same youtube clips on the bus xp

Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 13 December 2024 17:26 (two months ago) link

sometimes i think a dude is chill and i find out he's a Jesus trumper and it's a bit https://media.tenor.com/6C-6YhMqTPYAAAAM/the-simpsons-heart-broken.gif

omar little, Friday, 13 December 2024 17:28 (two months ago) link


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