aaron judge needs his own thread

wRC+ of 198 halfway through his rookie season :O

this dude is ridiculous. unlike Bellinger over in the NL, he seems unstoppable.

Would much rather have Bellinger.

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

what's the case for bellinger over judge?

the same solid and unassailable case that was made for Dave Justice over Frank Thomas.

Bellinger is 21 and Judge is 25, so he's got 2-3 seasons left til his peak would hit. Bellinger has more time but I'm not 100% convinced on him being at this level all the time going forward.

though the history of guys his age hitting like this is a pretty good one, especially if you're a dodger fan.

yeah, i think they'll both probably be prettttty good

but judge seems like an absolute monster

It seems fairly self-evident to me.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week; Judge is 25. A three-plus year difference at this age is generally a reliable marker of growth potential.

Bellinger's ascension has been rapid and makes sense. His slugging averages in the minors, starting at age 17, have been .358, .474, .538, .515, .627. So .620 this year doesn't strike me as entirely unexpected. Judge's, starting at age 22, read .483, .448, .489, .345 (majors), and .689 this year. I'm just skeptical about that--how many guys learn to hit when they turn 25?

Might be totally wrong, but I'd much rather have the 22-year-old with some clear foundation for his success this year (in a much tougher hitter's park, no less).

but hmm...Judge...Justice...they should get together with Vance Law and play a tourney.

i'd be skeptical if he was just mashing dongs, Kingman-style. he's a triple crown threat, though.

I don't remember anybody--anybody serious, anyway--thinking that Dave Justice had a brighter future than Frank Thomas in 1991. Besides which, it was Justice who was two years older...

that was a bit of a joke, i didn't do the scouting before i made it. i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.

Judge's HR are impressive, no argument there, but I've got to be skeptical about the batting average. He's struck out 102 times in 286 AB and he's hitting .330. His BABIP (yes, I've been reduced to trotting out BABIP) is .420-something--as has been pointed out here, in the neighborhood of Babe Ruth's 1923 season.

I'm enjoying Judge's season, and he's probably already clinched the MVP (the three Houston guys are going to split all their votes). But I would take Bellinger without a second thought.

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

if this year is any indication, though, bellinger's poor defense might dull any offensive edge he has on judge

i guess i just don't agree that judge came out of nowhere. his wRC+:

2014 (A - 65 games) 167
2014 (A+ - 66 games) 149
2015 (AA - 63 games) 147
2015 (AAA - 61 games) 98
2016 (AAA - 93 games) 147
2016 (MLB - 27 games) 63
2017 (MLB - 80 games) 196

his outliers are 1) his time in 2015 AAA, which, i don't know, and 2) his 27 games with the yankees last year, which is too small of a sample and his cup of coffee, to boot. in general, he's been around 150 wRC+ since he hit professional baseball, so him kicking ass this year isn't too surprising to me. he'll come down to earth at some point, but i expect that he'll come back to around 150 wRC+ again

(i'm using his wRC+ rather than his rate stats because i have no idea what leagues or stadiums judge or bellinger played in during their minor league careers, so it seems better to use a stat that's league-adjusted)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKXhSZjMYIk

(xxpost) Good stuff--that does give a clearer picture. I went back and looked at league batting leaders for 2014-A and 2016-AAA, and he was third in OPS in A, 10th in AAA, so they were indeed pitcher's leagues. I still think the age gap is significant, though.

Obviously the most scientific way to settle this will be the Home Run Derby.

Judge is making me kinda like the Yankees, so clearly the man knows how to do the impossible

I don't care for age, right now I'm taking Judge. There is no way he ain't regressing; although who knows with Yankee Stadium + juiced ball. He'll remain a monster for a while I'm now certain.

it's easier to root for judge bc his name isn't cody

Also, there is a bunch of players under age 23 I'm taking over Bellinger.

Judge's Ks don't bother me because he's also leading the league in walks and runs scored, and his BABIP doesn't trouble me or give me false hope because he just hits the ball so hard consistently. he really is having a Frank Thomas/Pujols type season (yes w/more Ks but then again Trout struck out 184 times the year he won his first MVP award.)

I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week;

Is '17 considered his age-21 or age-22 season?

21

Judge is probably ending any chance of Harper going to the Yankees so far that I enjoy him.

Fangraphs had a piece on this 10 days ago:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-judge-or-cody-bellinger/

They don't really come down on either side. Their last sentence is good:

"And that’s the simple fact that may push some to pick the Dodgers’ first baseman: those three years of catchup that Bellinger has on Judge are very valuable. Even if it looks like just a couple ticks of strikeout rate, a few more walks, and maybe a little better work in the field, it will all add up.

Consider this, though: it might all add up...so that Cody Bellinger is about the same as we’re seeing from Aaron Judge, right now."

or he might be Puig.

puig was never this good!

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 1:30 AM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

insert albert pujols age joke here

ryan braun another guy who 4-digit OPSed his rookie season though he was 23

insert albert pujols age joke here

― ciderpress, Friday, July 7, 2017 11:13 AM (sixteen minutes ago)

Better age 37 OPS: Albert Pujols or Craig Counsell?

pretty decent chance Albert's career WAR drops below 100 this season. also damn it's extremely possible that Counsell will win that battle having hit .226 with 1 HR that season.

albert should retire immediately and lock in that 100 before he loses it

puig was never this good!

― k3vin k., Friday, July 7, 2017 1:44 PM (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

#WIGS

Can we please add intra-ilx tagging

30

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

^^oh yeah fair, i thought we were comparing judge to puig

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/charbjo01.shtml

roll me over romeo

the rookie record is mcgwire with 49 btw O_O

lol, judge at home run derby is indeed quite the show.

absurd

sheesh

The 500-footers were amazing but the several pop-ups that just happened to go out were too.

Genuinely surprised that last night was his first 3-HR game.

As measured by games, fastest ever to 250 HR.

https://sports.yahoo.com/aaron-judge-becomes-mlbs-fastest-player-to-250-career-homers-034419437.html

Two homers yesterday, 3-4 with a homer and a double tonight--slugging over .700 now, and hitting just under .400 since he bottomed out in late April.

On pace for a 50 HR and 50 2B season, 11.5 bWAR, and so on. It seems like he's going to lock down that HOF spot fast.

Would have to check, but I think the last (maybe even only) 50/50 season was Albert Belle--in the strike-shortened '95 season, no less. And he didn't win MVP.

Yeah 52 doubles and 50 HR. Imagine if he'd had 19 more games. Almost did it again in his second year with the White Sox too, 48 doubles and 49 HR.

i guess you have to throw him junk, despite his [img=https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GPqDZ5RWAAAuPvy.jpg:small]slugging .642 against off-speed stuff[/img]? no good answer apart from walking him

.419/.542/1.043 over the last 30 days

Judge's OPS for his last 32 games (1.553) is the best 32-game stretch since Bonds in '04, and the best Yankees stretch since Ruth in 1924.

(I have him at 1.585 for 33 games...I think Kevin has a mistyped zero in there.)

third slash is slugging

that’s “days” not games and via fangraphs as of when I posted it

Oops, wrong--you're doing BA/OBP/SLG, of course.

is Aaron Judge possibly...underrated?

He's very scrappy, so yes.

sometimes he plays like if Edgar Martinez accidentally teleported into Richie Sexson's body

Was looking at some things he might accomplish this year, and one of them would be the highest single-season OPS+ by a 20th-century MLB player not named Bonds, Williams, or Ruth. Hornsby (222), Mantle (221), and Gehrig (220) are all bunched together; Judge is at 220. A real longshot to keep this up.

The really interesting thing I noticed, though--bREF's list of course includes 19th-century players and Negro Leaguers--is that Lyman Bostock is on the list for 229 in 1941, his age-23 season. Yes, as you might guess: the other Lyman Bostock's father, who would outlive his son by almost 30 years.

(21st-century, too.)

https://i.postimg.cc/tJvJtBnk/judge.jpg

Harry Heilmann!

Surprised by the absence of Williams, which probably speaks to his consistency.

I think I internally assume he'll cool off and don't check in on him for a few days, but clearly he hasn't. Right now, he has his highest BA, OBP, and SLG ever, and he's headed for another 60 HR and 150 RBI.

On June 18, I posted that graphic above on the hottest streaks ever. Here's what he's done from June 18 to yesterday: 37 AB, 5 HR, 18 RBI, .432/.523/.865.

mark my words: this kid is going places.

the kind of streak that the all star break will cool down?

As phenomenal a season as he's having, I came across mention of a Triple Crown yesterday, which was a little bizarre--he's 50 points behind Steven Kwan in BA.

It’s also barely halfway through the season. I blame MLB & various social accounts for constantly pushing “Cy Young/MVP watch” this early in the season.

As the biggest gun-jumper on this board, I must sit this one out. (But even I can see Judge is not winning a TC.)

replace BA with SLG and he'd probably get it though - it's him, big drop, then Ohtani, another big drop, then everyone else

I don't know if this ever went anywhere, but there is ineed a sabermetric TC.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/9/27/2450607/the-saber-triple-crown

Ohtani probably has a better chance this year tbh

Judge has a decent lead over Ohtani in all three right now; I think the bigger problem would be Judge or anybody beating Soto in OBP.

kwan doesn’t qualify for the batting title as of now…I would also wager his BA will fall to earth a bit

Forgot he didn't have enough AB. On the second point, agree, but 50 points is a lot--he'd need to go into free-fall, and Judge would have to hold steady.

I blame MLB & various social accounts for constantly pushing “Cy Young/MVP watch” this early in the season.

Let me dive in! Soto looked like a cinch MVP early on; clearly Judge has surpassed him, but I wouldn't altogether rule Soto out yet. If Judge were to get hurt, or have a poor month, Soto's waiting in the wings.

injury aside, Judge has it in the bag. I don't see him having a month poor enough to allow Soto to catch up. his level of production has been so consistent across his career, I feel pretty safe in saying that he's solved AL pitching and they don't have much to counter him. I think the biggest tell for me about Judge this season is he's leading the AL in doubles too, only five off his career high. he's got 56 xbh already.

Both things would have to be true: injury time plus a really bad month. But you're probably right. Which would leave him with two MVPS and a third he didn't win but many people felt he should have in 2017. (I thought Altuve was a good pick.) Which, if there was any lingering doubt already, is one foot in the HOF.

The only argument I can see anyone making against his candidacy even at this point is the fact that, barring injury, this would wind up being only his fourth full season, so some of the traditional counting stats are slightly lacking. But he is in the inner circle of the Hall of Fame as a peak performer, and he's firmly the best 60 HR guy not named Ruth or Bonds.

he’s probably going to have a short career, but from memory, I think every multiple MVP winner, apart from the steroid guys, are in the hall. he’s on track to crack the top 20 in RF JAWS by the end of this season, and assuming he has another 3 years at 5-7 wins each, that already puts him in the top 10. (doubt he’ll catch betts though)

I know there are double Cy Young winners not in the HOF, and I think there might be a couple of double MVPs not in there too--have to check.

You could argue that Juan Gonzalez is an exception, although he was quite probably juiced too.

Dale Murphy comes to mind

to show my work:
- another 4 WAR this year
- conservative estimate of average of 5 WAR the next 3 years
- average of 1.5 WAR the 4 years after that, to the end of his contract

brings him to 72.7 WAR for his career and about 63 JAWS — firmly in the top 10, shoulder to shoulder (or shoulder to forehead) with al kaline, betts, and reggie jackson

I really believe that he's the type of guy who could have another three or four seasons after this at a similar level of dominance, followed by a more normal level of high level hitting. Like your average "David Ortiz in the final stretch" kinda year.

Chances probably better once they work out a way to get Stanton off the roster and free up that DH spot but until then he’s an injury risk

unrelated, but that reminds me of something I think about frequently which is how funny it is that baseball players get injured. these guys are insanely jacked, play a non-contact sport where you might touch another player 20 times over the course of a season, do a pretty good amount of standing around — but run a weird way down the first base line one time or swing too hard and you might be out for 3 weeks. there’s got to be a good article out there about injury trends and all that

Most of them aren’t insanely jacket but the ones that are are usually the guys who get injured all the time. Stanton, Tyler O’Neill both walking hospital frequenters. Maybe only Yandy Diaz is the rare hench position player that’s usually healthy.

Jacked

Yoked

Swole

Timely

My twin brother and myself at 60 years old pic.twitter.com/BjKYI5WsE7

— Jose Canseco (@JoseCanseco) July 3, 2024

As Posnanski points out, absurd:

Mantle and Maris, or Judge and Soto?

— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) July 23, 2024

(James also suggested to his readers they were getting this one wrong.)

Whether you pair Mantle with Judge or Soto, that's competitive. Whether you pair Maris with Judge or Soto, that's lopsided.