aaron judge needs his own thread

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wRC+ of 198 halfway through his rookie season :O

k3vin k., Thursday, 6 July 2017 04:50 (five years ago) link

this dude is ridiculous. unlike Bellinger over in the NL, he seems unstoppable.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 04:52 (five years ago) link

Would much rather have Bellinger.

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 04:59 (five years ago) link

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

k3vin k., Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:02 (five years ago) link

what's the case for bellinger over judge?

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:08 (five years ago) link

the same solid and unassailable case that was made for Dave Justice over Frank Thomas.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:15 (five years ago) link

Bellinger is 21 and Judge is 25, so he's got 2-3 seasons left til his peak would hit. Bellinger has more time but I'm not 100% convinced on him being at this level all the time going forward.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:16 (five years ago) link

though the history of guys his age hitting like this is a pretty good one, especially if you're a dodger fan.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:17 (five years ago) link

yeah, i think they'll both probably be prettttty good

but judge seems like an absolute monster

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:18 (five years ago) link

It seems fairly self-evident to me.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week; Judge is 25. A three-plus year difference at this age is generally a reliable marker of growth potential.

Bellinger's ascension has been rapid and makes sense. His slugging averages in the minors, starting at age 17, have been .358, .474, .538, .515, .627. So .620 this year doesn't strike me as entirely unexpected. Judge's, starting at age 22, read .483, .448, .489, .345 (majors), and .689 this year. I'm just skeptical about that--how many guys learn to hit when they turn 25?

Might be totally wrong, but I'd much rather have the 22-year-old with some clear foundation for his success this year (in a much tougher hitter's park, no less).

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:19 (five years ago) link

but hmm...Judge...Justice...they should get together with Vance Law and play a tourney.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:20 (five years ago) link

i'd be skeptical if he was just mashing dongs, Kingman-style. he's a triple crown threat, though.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:20 (five years ago) link

I don't remember anybody--anybody serious, anyway--thinking that Dave Justice had a brighter future than Frank Thomas in 1991. Besides which, it was Justice who was two years older...

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:21 (five years ago) link

that was a bit of a joke, i didn't do the scouting before i made it. i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:23 (five years ago) link

Judge's HR are impressive, no argument there, but I've got to be skeptical about the batting average. He's struck out 102 times in 286 AB and he's hitting .330. His BABIP (yes, I've been reduced to trotting out BABIP) is .420-something--as has been pointed out here, in the neighborhood of Babe Ruth's 1923 season.

I'm enjoying Judge's season, and he's probably already clinched the MVP (the three Houston guys are going to split all their votes). But I would take Bellinger without a second thought.

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:27 (five years ago) link

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:30 (five years ago) link

if this year is any indication, though, bellinger's poor defense might dull any offensive edge he has on judge

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:31 (five years ago) link

i guess i just don't agree that judge came out of nowhere. his wRC+:

2014 (A - 65 games) 167
2014 (A+ - 66 games) 149
2015 (AA - 63 games) 147
2015 (AAA - 61 games) 98
2016 (AAA - 93 games) 147
2016 (MLB - 27 games) 63
2017 (MLB - 80 games) 196

his outliers are 1) his time in 2015 AAA, which, i don't know, and 2) his 27 games with the yankees last year, which is too small of a sample and his cup of coffee, to boot. in general, he's been around 150 wRC+ since he hit professional baseball, so him kicking ass this year isn't too surprising to me. he'll come down to earth at some point, but i expect that he'll come back to around 150 wRC+ again

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:45 (five years ago) link

(i'm using his wRC+ rather than his rate stats because i have no idea what leagues or stadiums judge or bellinger played in during their minor league careers, so it seems better to use a stat that's league-adjusted)

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:47 (five years ago) link

(xxpost) Good stuff--that does give a clearer picture. I went back and looked at league batting leaders for 2014-A and 2016-AAA, and he was third in OPS in A, 10th in AAA, so they were indeed pitcher's leagues. I still think the age gap is significant, though.

Obviously the most scientific way to settle this will be the Home Run Derby.

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 13:08 (five years ago) link

Judge is making me kinda like the Yankees, so clearly the man knows how to do the impossible

frogbs, Thursday, 6 July 2017 13:17 (five years ago) link

I don't care for age, right now I'm taking Judge. There is no way he ain't regressing; although who knows with Yankee Stadium + juiced ball. He'll remain a monster for a while I'm now certain.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 6 July 2017 20:59 (five years ago) link

it's easier to root for judge bc his name isn't cody

na (NA), Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:01 (five years ago) link

Also, there is a bunch of players under age 23 I'm taking over Bellinger.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:04 (five years ago) link

Judge's Ks don't bother me because he's also leading the league in walks and runs scored, and his BABIP doesn't trouble me or give me false hope because he just hits the ball so hard consistently. he really is having a Frank Thomas/Pujols type season (yes w/more Ks but then again Trout struck out 184 times the year he won his first MVP award.)

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:23 (five years ago) link

I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:24 (five years ago) link

Bellinger will turn 22 next week;

Is '17 considered his age-21 or age-22 season?

Cannibal Adderley (WilliamC), Friday, 7 July 2017 01:34 (five years ago) link

21

mookieproof, Friday, 7 July 2017 01:55 (five years ago) link

Judge is probably ending any chance of Harper going to the Yankees so far that I enjoy him.

Van Horn Street, Friday, 7 July 2017 02:50 (five years ago) link

Fangraphs had a piece on this 10 days ago:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-judge-or-cody-bellinger/

They don't really come down on either side. Their last sentence is good:

"And that’s the simple fact that may push some to pick the Dodgers’ first baseman: those three years of catchup that Bellinger has on Judge are very valuable. Even if it looks like just a couple ticks of strikeout rate, a few more walks, and maybe a little better work in the field, it will all add up.

Consider this, though: it might all add up...so that Cody Bellinger is about the same as we’re seeing from Aaron Judge, right now."

clemenza, Friday, 7 July 2017 17:30 (five years ago) link

or he might be Puig.

Van Horn Street, Friday, 7 July 2017 17:40 (five years ago) link

puig was never this good!

k3vin k., Friday, 7 July 2017 17:44 (five years ago) link

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 1:30 AM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

insert albert pujols age joke here

ciderpress, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:13 (five years ago) link

ryan braun another guy who 4-digit OPSed his rookie season though he was 23

ciderpress, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:18 (five years ago) link

insert albert pujols age joke here

― ciderpress, Friday, July 7, 2017 11:13 AM (sixteen minutes ago)

Better age 37 OPS: Albert Pujols or Craig Counsell?

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 7 July 2017 18:34 (five years ago) link

pretty decent chance Albert's career WAR drops below 100 this season. also damn it's extremely possible that Counsell will win that battle having hit .226 with 1 HR that season.

nomar, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:43 (five years ago) link

albert should retire immediately and lock in that 100 before he loses it

ciderpress, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:44 (five years ago) link

puig was never this good!

― k3vin k., Friday, July 7, 2017 1:44 PM (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

Van Horn Street, Saturday, 8 July 2017 00:32 (five years ago) link

#WIGS

c (calstars), Saturday, 8 July 2017 01:08 (five years ago) link

Can we please add intra-ilx tagging

c (calstars), Saturday, 8 July 2017 01:09 (five years ago) link

30

mookieproof, Saturday, 8 July 2017 01:57 (five years ago) link

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

^^oh yeah fair, i thought we were comparing judge to puig

k3vin k., Saturday, 8 July 2017 02:00 (five years ago) link

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/charbjo01.shtml

nomar, Saturday, 8 July 2017 04:20 (five years ago) link

roll me over romeo

mookieproof, Saturday, 8 July 2017 04:23 (five years ago) link

the rookie record is mcgwire with 49 btw O_O

k3vin k., Saturday, 8 July 2017 06:36 (five years ago) link

lol, judge at home run derby is indeed quite the show.

Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 11 July 2017 01:23 (five years ago) link

absurd

k3vin k., Tuesday, 11 July 2017 01:26 (five years ago) link

sheesh

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 11 July 2017 02:04 (five years ago) link

The 500-footers were amazing but the several pop-ups that just happened to go out were too.

Cannibal Adderley (WilliamC), Tuesday, 11 July 2017 02:53 (five years ago) link

Aaron Judge returns to the #Yankees lineup: pic.twitter.com/IDENp1GwYs

— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) September 18, 2018

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 18 September 2018 20:07 (three years ago) link

eight months pass...

I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 2:24 PM (one year ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

¯\(°_o)/¯

omar little, Wednesday, 29 May 2019 00:16 (three years ago) link

three months pass...

Bellinger and Judge are pretty close now for their careers--Judge still has a slight edge (which might surprise, but his advantage after two seasons was huge):

B: .278/.368/.562, 108 HR, 145 OPS+, 16.7 WAR
J: .273/.394/.552, 103 HR, 150 OPS+, 17.4 WAR

I doubt Bellinger will continue at anywhere near the level of this year (which is mostly attributable to his phenomenal start), but the four years he has on Judge may really start to show up in the next few seasons.

clemenza, Saturday, 7 September 2019 15:30 (two years ago) link

bellinger's second half (.940 OPS) is still better than judge's season (.886), and that's despite bellinger's second-half BABIP dropping to an unreasonable .252

idk how sustainable this is on bellinger's part, but his K rate this season is 16.4% while judge's is 31%, and he's still generating more power. that's remarkable

mookieproof, Saturday, 7 September 2019 18:19 (two years ago) link

Was at Dodger stadium a few days ago, sitting in the clouds, and it was remarkable to see where Bellinger stands in the box, as far back as possible which is normal but as close to the plate as he could get. With his standing stance he only occupied about maybe 1/8 of the box in total

calstars, Saturday, 7 September 2019 21:45 (two years ago) link

One thing that has fluctuated with Bellinger (someone pointed this out on a game I was listening to) are his platoon splits. First year, even; second year, left-handers killed him; 2019, he's hitting right-handers a little better, but not a big difference. It would seem that the middle year was the anomaly.

clemenza, Sunday, 8 September 2019 00:23 (two years ago) link

one year passes...

Two seasons shortened by injury plus two COVID seasons, this one not nearly finished, but has Judge ever been consistent since his big rookie season:

2018: .278/.392/.528
2019: .272/.381/.540
2020: .257/.336/.554
2021: .272/.385/.568

clemenza, Saturday, 1 May 2021 18:37 (one year ago) link

Being healthy is a skill

I was working hard to keep all my told-you-so's in check during Bellinger's MVP year, but I'm starting to have doubts again as to whose long-term prospects are better.

clemenza, Sunday, 2 May 2021 00:13 (one year ago) link

Big judge

calstars, Sunday, 2 May 2021 00:27 (one year ago) link

Slash line killah

calstars, Sunday, 2 May 2021 00:28 (one year ago) link

three months pass...

https://i.imgur.com/S9nWvhH.png

Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 11 August 2021 19:09 (one year ago) link

what am i looking at here

should i be 'reading between the lines' Zach?

Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 11 August 2021 21:13 (one year ago) link

nothing shocking, just a chart showing wOBA for bellinger (blue line) and judge (black line). the green line is the MLB average. bellinger's really fallen off this year, and wasn't great last year!

why these two? i have no idea why i still think about this, but bellinger and judge are always connected in my mind due to a bold prediction clemenza made a few years ago but how who would be better. i cannot think about either one without immediately thinking about the other now, lol

Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 11 August 2021 21:16 (one year ago) link

did clemenza say bellinger was going to be better?

Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 11 August 2021 21:22 (one year ago) link

this dude is ridiculous. unlike Bellinger over in the NL, he seems unstoppable.

― nomar, Wednesday, July 5, 2017 11:52 PM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Would much rather have Bellinger.

― clemenza, Wednesday, July 5, 2017 11:59 PM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

― k3vin k., Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:02 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

what's the case for bellinger over judge?

― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:08 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

the same solid and unassailable case that was made for Dave Justice over Frank Thomas.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:15 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Bellinger is 21 and Judge is 25, so he's got 2-3 seasons left til his peak would hit. Bellinger has more time but I'm not 100% convinced on him being at this level all the time going forward.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:16 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

though the history of guys his age hitting like this is a pretty good one, especially if you're a dodger fan.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:17 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah, i think they'll both probably be prettttty good

but judge seems like an absolute monster

― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:18 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

It seems fairly self-evident to me.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week; Judge is 25. A three-plus year difference at this age is generally a reliable marker of growth potential.

Bellinger's ascension has been rapid and makes sense. His slugging averages in the minors, starting at age 17, have been .358, .474, .538, .515, .627. So .620 this year doesn't strike me as entirely unexpected. Judge's, starting at age 22, read .483, .448, .489, .345 (majors), and .689 this year. I'm just skeptical about that--how many guys learn to hit when they turn 25?

Might be totally wrong, but I'd much rather have the 22-year-old with some clear foundation for his success this year (in a much tougher hitter's park, no less).

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:19 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

but hmm...Judge...Justice...they should get together with Vance Law and play a tourney.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:20 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'd be skeptical if he was just mashing dongs, Kingman-style. he's a triple crown threat, though.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:20 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

I don't remember anybody--anybody serious, anyway--thinking that Dave Justice had a brighter future than Frank Thomas in 1991. Besides which, it was Justice who was two years older...

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:21 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

that was a bit of a joke, i didn't do the scouting before i made it. i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:23 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Judge's HR are impressive, no argument there, but I've got to be skeptical about the batting average. He's struck out 102 times in 286 AB and he's hitting .330. His BABIP (yes, I've been reduced to trotting out BABIP) is .420-something--as has been pointed out here, in the neighborhood of Babe Ruth's 1923 season.

I'm enjoying Judge's season, and he's probably already clinched the MVP (the three Houston guys are going to split all their votes). But I would take Bellinger without a second thought.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:27 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:30 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

if this year is any indication, though, bellinger's poor defense might dull any offensive edge he has on judge

― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:31 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

(that year was not any indication, though)

Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 11 August 2021 21:29 (one year ago) link

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

― k3vin k., Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:02 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

still feel good about this

k3vin k., Wednesday, 11 August 2021 21:43 (one year ago) link

yeah, that was a pretty solid take!

Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 11 August 2021 22:35 (one year ago) link

one month passes...

This is sort of the Bellinger thread too.

twitter.com/billjamesonline/status/1440799366243971078

Is there any historical precedent for a young player as great as Cody Bellinger was in 2017 and 2019 collapsing in the way that he has? (Not including pitchers; pitchers are different animals.) But I don't think I have ever seen this happen before. If there is precedent, who?

clemenza, Sunday, 26 September 2021 15:39 (ten months ago) link

seven months pass...

Ready to wave the white flag here. The Bellinger call looked like genius in 2019, but he's terrible for the third year running now, while Judge, if he can stay healthy through his 30s, might have an outside shot at the HOF. Bellinger's four-year head start is becoming increasingly meaningless.

clemenza, Friday, 20 May 2022 00:33 (two months ago) link

judge started so late, think his career numbers are gonna end up lower than a lot of other sluggers that didnt sniff the HOF

ciderpress, Friday, 20 May 2022 00:45 (two months ago) link

like, is nelson cruz gonna be a hall of famer? that seems like the best case

ciderpress, Friday, 20 May 2022 00:50 (two months ago) link

Agree that he probably wouldn't go in for bulk career numbers; was thinking more of a concentrated peak period. But, again, if he can stay healthy for seven or eight seasons, maybe he'd get to 450 HR by the time he's 37, which'd give him a shot at 500 (if that still means anything by then). But a couple of MVPs and a couple of WS would probably be a more viable path, and he's got a pretty good jump on both this season.

clemenza, Friday, 20 May 2022 02:16 (two months ago) link

(I meant to say sustained peak period.)

clemenza, Friday, 20 May 2022 02:16 (two months ago) link

now that we've achieved closure on bellinger vs judge, you know bellinger is going to suddenly catch fire

Bruce Stingbean (Karl Malone), Friday, 20 May 2022 02:17 (two months ago) link

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10
― k3vin k., Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:02 AM

still feel good about this
― k3vin k., Wednesday, August 11, 2021 5:43 PM

yeah, that was a pretty solid take!
― Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, August 11, 2021 6:35 PM

Everyone missed the obvious answer:

I'll take Bellinger for 2019, and Judge for every other year ever till the end of eternity.

clemenza, Friday, 20 May 2022 02:37 (two months ago) link

we'll always have 2019 bellinger

Bruce Stingbean (Karl Malone), Friday, 20 May 2022 03:01 (two months ago) link

two weeks pass...

judge started so late, think his career numbers are gonna end up lower than a lot of other sluggers that didn't sniff the HOF

Hit his 20th tonight in the Yankees 52nd game; a 60-HR season would make up for some of that lost time.

clemenza, Saturday, 4 June 2022 00:52 (two months ago) link

Looking at some projections he’s expected to land somewhere between 49-52 home runs. But I guess projection models are always on the cautious side, so it would take a lot of assume 60 home runs. Either way, I don’t see him being able to keep this up another 7 seasons, or whatever it would take to get his counting stats up to HOF muster.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Saturday, 4 June 2022 16:35 (two months ago) link

Definitely not assuming...I'm using basic ratios here: 20/52 = 62/162. I guess the assumption in those models is regression-to-mean, or guys slow down, or something. And again, I don't think Judge will ever go in the HOF as a counting-stats guy (even if he manages to hit 500 HR); it'd have to be some combination of MVP prominence, team success, and something like a 60-HR season.

(Suddenly I'm Aaron Judge's biggest advocate--sorry, Cody, I've thrown you overboard.)

clemenza, Saturday, 4 June 2022 17:09 (two months ago) link

They're not at all similar, but I'm thinking something like the Kirby Puckett HOF route: a couple of World Series wins, MVP support virtually every year, good slash stats, very popular (at least while he played), sustained decade of excellence. Puckett never had COVID or injuries to deal with, though, so that sustained period of excellence is going to have some blips with Judge.

clemenza, Saturday, 4 June 2022 17:18 (two months ago) link

And Judge hits another…

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Saturday, 4 June 2022 17:22 (two months ago) link

gonna be interesting to see how his contract situation plays out -- he's already turned down an extension offer from the yankees, and it sure seems like he was right to do it

otoh he'll be 31 next april and i'm not sure how many years he can reasonably get

mookieproof, Saturday, 4 June 2022 18:02 (two months ago) link

one month passes...

Jaffe has a HOF update/roundup on Fangraphs today. I think he sees Judge basically as I do (skipped the middle paragraph):

I said I wouldn’t dwell upon anybody with seven or fewer seasons, but Judge, who leads the AL in bWAR and the majors in fWAR (4.7), is worth making an exception for while he’s in the midst of a monster season. He’s already 30 years old, and between his late start (he was a 25-year-old rookie) and his difficulty staying on the field (he’s played more than 112 games in a season just twice), he’ll have to remain exceptionally productive for at least the next half-decade to reach Cooperstown. Still, we’re talking about a player who has averaged 7.0 WAR per 650 PA thus far and who has raised his ceiling considerably over the past three months...

Long story short, a Hall of Fame berth for Judge isn’t out of the question, but he can’t afford to miss a quarter or a third of a season, or to suddenly turn into a 3–4 WAR per year player if he’s to get there.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/making-tracks-on-the-road-to-cooperstown-whos-boosted-their-hall-odds-in-2022/

clemenza, Thursday, 21 July 2022 17:58 (four weeks ago) link

And as I read that, I get a notification he hit a home run.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 22 July 2022 01:44 (four weeks ago) link

Houston swept a double-header with NY tonight, and Alvarez--possibly Judge's main competition for MVP (if, like me, you think there'll be a reluctance to go with Ohtani again)--had a big night.

clemenza, Friday, 22 July 2022 03:31 (four weeks ago) link

(if, like me, you think there'll be a reluctance to go with Ohtani again)

i know you hate the hype surrounding him -- although afaik he himself has been suitably demure, unlike the much-hated marcus stroman who still headlines the jays thread three years later

but also i think you're being absurd. ohtani is a top-ten pitcher and a plus-plus hitter and -- idk, maybe judge hits 80 homers? -- you are *desperately* looking for ways to blind yourself to his greatness

mookieproof, Friday, 22 July 2022 03:54 (four weeks ago) link

I think he just thinks a lot of writers/voters are idiots

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 22 July 2022 03:56 (four weeks ago) link

My eye-rolling at mlb.com's hyping everything Ohtani does aside, I'm not expressing a personal opinion at all when weighing his chances to repeat as MVP. As you full well know, there has always been a strong tendency in MVP voting for writers to look for a new story every year. That's why Mays and Bonds didn't win another five MVPs each. If Ohtani is in the neighborhood of other MVP candidates at the end of the year, I'd bet money he won't repeat. If he's 2.0 or 3.0 WAR ahead, then sure, he will. But I don't think he will be.

clemenza, Friday, 22 July 2022 04:57 (four weeks ago) link

Hit his 37th today--on pace for 62.

clemenza, Sunday, 24 July 2022 20:04 (three weeks ago) link

40 + 41

mookieproof, Saturday, 30 July 2022 02:42 (two weeks ago) link

42

mookieproof, Saturday, 30 July 2022 19:15 (two weeks ago) link

I don't understand why anyone is still pitching to him at this point

, Saturday, 30 July 2022 20:27 (two weeks ago) link

I saw a graphic earlier today that had him even with Bonds' pace in 2001, but he's not--even with his HR tonight, he's four behind through 104 games. And Bonds went on to hit another 26.

clemenza, Tuesday, 2 August 2022 03:20 (two weeks ago) link

i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.

― nomar, Wednesday, July 5, 2017 10:23 PM (five years ago) bookmarkflaglink

😬

omar little, Tuesday, 2 August 2022 16:45 (two weeks ago) link

Posnanski has a shareable column up today:

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/the-power-of-judge?r=1jtu0&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

I was looking at the wrong column on Bonds' 2001 game log yesterday--Judge is only two HR behind him through 104 games.

clemenza, Tuesday, 2 August 2022 17:25 (two weeks ago) link

Still running only two HR behind Bonds (through 112 games). Which still seems close to meaningless in terms of catching him--28 in 50 games to tie? But 60--15 in 50 games--looks very promising, depending upon how much they pitch around him.

clemenza, Thursday, 11 August 2022 03:51 (one week ago) link

you mean 15 in 42 games… surely :)

Tracer Hand, Thursday, 11 August 2022 08:28 (one week ago) link

Stop Fricking around, this is serious business.

clemenza, Thursday, 11 August 2022 13:34 (one week ago) link

huh. still - better odds of him beating Ruth there. i'm def going to keep an eye on that.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 11 August 2022 15:50 (one week ago) link


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