wRC+ of 198 halfway through his rookie season :O
― k3vin k., Thursday, 6 July 2017 04:50 (seven years ago) link
this dude is ridiculous. unlike Bellinger over in the NL, he seems unstoppable.
― nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 04:52 (seven years ago) link
Would much rather have Bellinger.
― clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 04:59 (seven years ago) link
i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10
― k3vin k., Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:02 (seven years ago) link
what's the case for bellinger over judge?
― Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:08 (seven years ago) link
the same solid and unassailable case that was made for Dave Justice over Frank Thomas.
― nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:15 (seven years ago) link
Bellinger is 21 and Judge is 25, so he's got 2-3 seasons left til his peak would hit. Bellinger has more time but I'm not 100% convinced on him being at this level all the time going forward.
― nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:16 (seven years ago) link
though the history of guys his age hitting like this is a pretty good one, especially if you're a dodger fan.
― nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:17 (seven years ago) link
yeah, i think they'll both probably be prettttty good
but judge seems like an absolute monster
― Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:18 (seven years ago) link
It seems fairly self-evident to me.
Bellinger will turn 22 next week; Judge is 25. A three-plus year difference at this age is generally a reliable marker of growth potential.
Bellinger's ascension has been rapid and makes sense. His slugging averages in the minors, starting at age 17, have been .358, .474, .538, .515, .627. So .620 this year doesn't strike me as entirely unexpected. Judge's, starting at age 22, read .483, .448, .489, .345 (majors), and .689 this year. I'm just skeptical about that--how many guys learn to hit when they turn 25?
Might be totally wrong, but I'd much rather have the 22-year-old with some clear foundation for his success this year (in a much tougher hitter's park, no less).
― clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:19 (seven years ago) link
but hmm...Judge...Justice...they should get together with Vance Law and play a tourney.
― nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:20 (seven years ago) link
i'd be skeptical if he was just mashing dongs, Kingman-style. he's a triple crown threat, though.
I don't remember anybody--anybody serious, anyway--thinking that Dave Justice had a brighter future than Frank Thomas in 1991. Besides which, it was Justice who was two years older...
― clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:21 (seven years ago) link
that was a bit of a joke, i didn't do the scouting before i made it. i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.
― nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:23 (seven years ago) link
Judge's HR are impressive, no argument there, but I've got to be skeptical about the batting average. He's struck out 102 times in 286 AB and he's hitting .330. His BABIP (yes, I've been reduced to trotting out BABIP) is .420-something--as has been pointed out here, in the neighborhood of Babe Ruth's 1923 season.
I'm enjoying Judge's season, and he's probably already clinched the MVP (the three Houston guys are going to split all their votes). But I would take Bellinger without a second thought.
― clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:27 (seven years ago) link
If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.
― clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:30 (seven years ago) link
if this year is any indication, though, bellinger's poor defense might dull any offensive edge he has on judge
― Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:31 (seven years ago) link
i guess i just don't agree that judge came out of nowhere. his wRC+:
2014 (A - 65 games) 1672014 (A+ - 66 games) 1492015 (AA - 63 games) 1472015 (AAA - 61 games) 982016 (AAA - 93 games) 147 2016 (MLB - 27 games) 632017 (MLB - 80 games) 196
his outliers are 1) his time in 2015 AAA, which, i don't know, and 2) his 27 games with the yankees last year, which is too small of a sample and his cup of coffee, to boot. in general, he's been around 150 wRC+ since he hit professional baseball, so him kicking ass this year isn't too surprising to me. he'll come down to earth at some point, but i expect that he'll come back to around 150 wRC+ again
― Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:45 (seven years ago) link
(i'm using his wRC+ rather than his rate stats because i have no idea what leagues or stadiums judge or bellinger played in during their minor league careers, so it seems better to use a stat that's league-adjusted)
― Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:47 (seven years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKXhSZjMYIk
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 6 July 2017 06:06 (seven years ago) link
(xxpost) Good stuff--that does give a clearer picture. I went back and looked at league batting leaders for 2014-A and 2016-AAA, and he was third in OPS in A, 10th in AAA, so they were indeed pitcher's leagues. I still think the age gap is significant, though.
Obviously the most scientific way to settle this will be the Home Run Derby.
― clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 13:08 (seven years ago) link
Judge is making me kinda like the Yankees, so clearly the man knows how to do the impossible
― frogbs, Thursday, 6 July 2017 13:17 (seven years ago) link
I don't care for age, right now I'm taking Judge. There is no way he ain't regressing; although who knows with Yankee Stadium + juiced ball. He'll remain a monster for a while I'm now certain.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 6 July 2017 20:59 (seven years ago) link
it's easier to root for judge bc his name isn't cody
― na (NA), Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:01 (seven years ago) link
Also, there is a bunch of players under age 23 I'm taking over Bellinger.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:04 (seven years ago) link
Judge's Ks don't bother me because he's also leading the league in walks and runs scored, and his BABIP doesn't trouble me or give me false hope because he just hits the ball so hard consistently. he really is having a Frank Thomas/Pujols type season (yes w/more Ks but then again Trout struck out 184 times the year he won his first MVP award.)
― nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:23 (seven years ago) link
I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.
― nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:24 (seven years ago) link
Bellinger will turn 22 next week;
Is '17 considered his age-21 or age-22 season?
― Cannibal Adderley (WilliamC), Friday, 7 July 2017 01:34 (seven years ago) link
21
― mookieproof, Friday, 7 July 2017 01:55 (seven years ago) link
Judge is probably ending any chance of Harper going to the Yankees so far that I enjoy him.
― Van Horn Street, Friday, 7 July 2017 02:50 (seven years ago) link
Fangraphs had a piece on this 10 days ago:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-judge-or-cody-bellinger/
They don't really come down on either side. Their last sentence is good:
"And that’s the simple fact that may push some to pick the Dodgers’ first baseman: those three years of catchup that Bellinger has on Judge are very valuable. Even if it looks like just a couple ticks of strikeout rate, a few more walks, and maybe a little better work in the field, it will all add up.
Consider this, though: it might all add up...so that Cody Bellinger is about the same as we’re seeing from Aaron Judge, right now."
― clemenza, Friday, 7 July 2017 17:30 (seven years ago) link
or he might be Puig.
― Van Horn Street, Friday, 7 July 2017 17:40 (seven years ago) link
puig was never this good!
― k3vin k., Friday, 7 July 2017 17:44 (seven years ago) link
― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 1:30 AM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
insert albert pujols age joke here
― ciderpress, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:13 (seven years ago) link
ryan braun another guy who 4-digit OPSed his rookie season though he was 23
― ciderpress, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:18 (seven years ago) link
insert albert pujols age joke here― ciderpress, Friday, July 7, 2017 11:13 AM (sixteen minutes ago)
― ciderpress, Friday, July 7, 2017 11:13 AM (sixteen minutes ago)
Better age 37 OPS: Albert Pujols or Craig Counsell?
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 7 July 2017 18:34 (seven years ago) link
pretty decent chance Albert's career WAR drops below 100 this season. also damn it's extremely possible that Counsell will win that battle having hit .226 with 1 HR that season.
― nomar, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:43 (seven years ago) link
albert should retire immediately and lock in that 100 before he loses it
― ciderpress, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:44 (seven years ago) link
― k3vin k., Friday, July 7, 2017 1:44 PM (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war) Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)
― Van Horn Street, Saturday, 8 July 2017 00:32 (seven years ago) link
#WIGS
― c (calstars), Saturday, 8 July 2017 01:08 (seven years ago) link
Can we please add intra-ilx tagging
― c (calstars), Saturday, 8 July 2017 01:09 (seven years ago) link
30
― mookieproof, Saturday, 8 July 2017 01:57 (seven years ago) link
^^oh yeah fair, i thought we were comparing judge to puig
― k3vin k., Saturday, 8 July 2017 02:00 (seven years ago) link
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/charbjo01.shtml
― nomar, Saturday, 8 July 2017 04:20 (seven years ago) link
roll me over romeo
― mookieproof, Saturday, 8 July 2017 04:23 (seven years ago) link
the rookie record is mcgwire with 49 btw O_O
― k3vin k., Saturday, 8 July 2017 06:36 (seven years ago) link
lol, judge at home run derby is indeed quite the show.
― Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 11 July 2017 01:23 (seven years ago) link
absurd
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 11 July 2017 01:26 (seven years ago) link
sheesh
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 11 July 2017 02:04 (seven years ago) link
The 500-footers were amazing but the several pop-ups that just happened to go out were too.
― Cannibal Adderley (WilliamC), Tuesday, 11 July 2017 02:53 (seven years ago) link
Yeah, I have a feeling he'll be fine. Just a hunch.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 13 September 2024 16:19 (five months ago) link
Omen of a hunch, concept of a plan--good call.
― clemenza, Saturday, 14 September 2024 02:47 (five months ago) link
we back
― brony james (k3vin k.), Saturday, 14 September 2024 06:06 (five months ago) link
Triple Crown definitely within range: HR/RBI safe, eight points behind Witt for the batting lead (and one ahead of Vlad).
― clemenza, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 16:54 (four months ago) link
hopes are fading but i'm still rooting for that satisfying-looking 60 hr/150 RBI season.
― omar little, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 16:57 (four months ago) link
Had to check, of course: just Sosa (twice!) and Ruth.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 17:01 (four months ago) link
Sammy almost had two 60/160 seasons. his 2001 was something else. probably had a really good energy drink he was mainlining.
― omar little, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 17:13 (four months ago) link
may have been 'leaded coffee' in the clubhouse
― 龜, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 17:31 (four months ago) link
btw top ten oWAR seasons of all time --
Barry Bonds (2001) - 12.4Babe Ruth (1923) - 12.3Babe Ruth (1921) - 12.2Barry Bonds (2002) - 11.8Babe Ruth (1920) - 11.8Barry Bonds (2004) - 11.5Rogers Hornsby (1924) - 11.5Aaron Judge (2024) - 11.4Babe Ruth (1927) - 11.4Honus Wagner (1908) - 11.4
the rest of the double-digit oWAR guys are all pre-WW2 except for three Mantle seasons, one from Musial, one from Williams, another from Judge, and one from Trout.
― omar little, Wednesday, 25 September 2024 17:52 (four months ago) link
If you throw PEDs and segregation into the mix, I don't think it's unreasonable to say we're watching the greatest offensive season ever (MLB, anyway).
― clemenza, Wednesday, 25 September 2024 18:08 (four months ago) link
love throwing PEDs and segregation into the mix
― brony james (k3vin k.), Wednesday, 25 September 2024 19:19 (four months ago) link
I dont care about PEDs
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Wednesday, 25 September 2024 20:06 (four months ago) link
The most impressive thing to me about Judge (and Ohtani, and anybody else who plays today) is this, which I needed someone to spell out to me clearly, with numbers:
aaron judge needs his own thread
Here's Bonds facing the starter for the 4th time in those three seasons on the WAR list (2001/2/4):
2001: 16 AB, 4 HR, .438/.571/1.1882002: 12 AB, 1 HR, .167/.474/.5002004: 13 AB, 3 HR, .539/.667/1.308
Total: 41 AB, 8 HR, .390/.569/1.024
Judge never faces a starter for the 4th time.
(I will mention, though, he's at his best in 2024 facing starters for the first time; he's a little worse the second time, and worse still the third time. That's weird...)
― clemenza, Wednesday, 25 September 2024 20:36 (four months ago) link
Bonds never faced a pitcher on a pitch timer.
― Mrs. Ippei (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 25 September 2024 23:32 (four months ago) link
Is there clear evidence that's hurting hitters? In 2022, the year before the pitch clock came in, teams scored 4.28 runs per game:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022.shtml
In 2023, first year with the clock, that went up to 4.62 runs per game:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023.shtml
This year, back down to 4.40:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024.shtml
That's just one factor, there are obviously others. So I don't know.
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 September 2024 01:26 (four months ago) link
A big part of the pitch-clock coming in was batters constantly calling time and stepping out, right?
The rule change stipulates the following:
The pitcher must begin his motion to deliver the pitch before the expiration of the pitch timer. Pitchers who violate the timer are charged with an automatic ball. Batters who violate the timer are charged with an automatic strike.
Batters must be in the box and alert to the pitcher by the 8-second mark or else be charged with an automatic strike.
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 September 2024 01:33 (four months ago) link
I garbled the point...You're saying Judge is helped by the pitch clock and pitchers are hurt. Maybe, maybe not; the rule affects both parties. First runs went up (see, it hurts pitchers), this they're they're down (wait, maybe it hurts batters).
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 September 2024 01:47 (four months ago) link
"this year they're down"
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 September 2024 01:48 (four months ago) link
Ohtani got his 400th TB last night; Judge needs 8 more in 3 games, so he's right on target.
― clemenza, Friday, 27 September 2024 15:14 (four months ago) link
i can't believe he could still get to 60 after april and that two week jag this month
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 27 September 2024 15:18 (four months ago) link
I had to check (I realize you could do this with most great seasons):
May 1 on: 126 games, 52 HR, 126 RBI, .356/.492/.785
Aug. 26 - Sept. 8: 12 games, 0 HR, 3 RBI, .186/.340/.256
Just the good stuff: 114 games, 52 HR, 123 RBI, .375/.514/.843
Bonds, 2001: 153 games, 73 HR, 137 RBI, .328/.515/.863
That's basically a wash, I'd say--50 points of batting average on Judge's side, 20 points of slugging to Bonds. Judge maintained that for almost 3/4 of the season, Bonds maintained it the whole way.
― clemenza, Friday, 27 September 2024 18:21 (four months ago) link
Plus (if you care), you know the rest.
― clemenza, Friday, 27 September 2024 18:22 (four months ago) link
including park factors, Bonds gets +2.0 Wins added to his fWAR over Judge.
― Mrs. Ippei (Steve Shasta), Friday, 27 September 2024 19:01 (four months ago) link
Judge not in the lineup tonight. I get it, but I don't get it.
― clemenza, Saturday, 28 September 2024 01:04 (four months ago) link
scared of the pirates imo
― mookieproof, Saturday, 28 September 2024 01:09 (four months ago) link
0-5 with 5 Ks today. washed
― brony james (k3vin k.), Sunday, 29 September 2024 02:24 (four months ago) link
you age past 30 and you start getting those two day hangovers
― hott ogo (voodoo chili), Sunday, 29 September 2024 02:41 (four months ago) link
congrats on judge for the best offensive season by a right handed batter of all time
― brony james (k3vin k.), Monday, 30 September 2024 04:41 (four months ago) link
Wow. Imagine his season without the paw patrol curse!!
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 30 September 2024 05:13 (four months ago) link
This sucks. I’m rooting for him to do something.
I’ll occasionally have a nightmare where I relive a bad slump I had during my junior year! I’m 40!
― Allen (etaeoe), Sunday, 27 October 2024 14:48 (three months ago) link
https://i.imgur.com/rKSZVmq.jpeg
― calstars, Saturday, 30 November 2024 06:22 (two months ago) link
so judge is a trumper? say it aint so
― 龜, Friday, 13 December 2024 13:32 (two months ago) link
That quote is fake
― gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 13:34 (two months ago) link
phew! it aint so!
― 龜, Friday, 13 December 2024 13:40 (two months ago) link
He is however one of those guys whose bio starts “Christian” which ime never a great sign, but that paragraph doing the rounds is super fake and Judge has never spoken out about his politics in any real way that I can recall besides supporting BLM vocally & telling Josh Donaldson publicly to drop his Tim Anderson baiting. People only believed it cos Volpe follows Trump & Don Jr on Instagram.
― gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 13:44 (two months ago) link
verdugo seems like the most obvious trumper on that team
― 龜, Friday, 13 December 2024 13:45 (two months ago) link
Going by his brother on Twitter, that would be extremely surprising. His brother is extremely vocal about hating Trump. Not saying siblings can’t have different views but considering they’re supposed to be very close and how polarising that would be, I couldn’t see it.
― gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 13:56 (two months ago) link
Anyway they just signed Max Fried who is one of the few baseball players who is open about being (relatively speaking, for baseball) on the left.
― gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 14:00 (two months ago) link
huh don’t judge a book by its cover i guess i was just going off vibes xp
― 龜, Friday, 13 December 2024 14:03 (two months ago) link
Can confirm Mark Vientos has good politics
― gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 14:05 (two months ago) link
Canha too
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 13 December 2024 14:34 (two months ago) link
re: judge not speaking to soto, he explained himself a bit here (from november): https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42548266/aaron-judge-giving-free-agent-juan-soto-space-make-choice
― now TAYNE i can get into (voodoo chili), Friday, 13 December 2024 14:35 (two months ago) link
seems like he wanted space to make his own free agency decision without outside pressure, and felt soto would want the same. seems like he miscalculated.
― now TAYNE i can get into (voodoo chili), Friday, 13 December 2024 14:37 (two months ago) link
the trump stuff was obviously fake because brandon nimmo is an aubrey huff-level conservative and soto just signed up to play with him for nearly a decade
― now TAYNE i can get into (voodoo chili), Friday, 13 December 2024 14:39 (two months ago) link
I mean half those Washington Nationals were big Trump guys - Phillies might be the single most pro Trump clubhouse in the league based on the fact that so many of them have either made no secret of their politics and also how vocally antivaxx many of their biggest names are or were.https://www.phillyvoice.com/phillies-covid-vaccine-girardi-alec-bohm-aaron-nola-baseball-philadelphia-mlb/
― gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 14:44 (two months ago) link
I'm fairly sure that 70-80% of American baseball players vote Republican (including for Trump). It's the (mostly) white, small-town raised, church-going, multi-millionaire demographic. It is what it is. I still enjoy watching baseball.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 13 December 2024 17:02 (two months ago) link
Yeah that’s about right.
― gyac, Friday, 13 December 2024 17:06 (two months ago) link
that's why it's fun to find secret lefties like spencer strider
― now TAYNE i can get into (voodoo chili), Friday, 13 December 2024 17:22 (two months ago) link
on top of that they're all on micro-community travel ball teams and they all sit around watching the same youtube clips on the bus xp
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 13 December 2024 17:26 (two months ago) link
sometimes i think a dude is chill and i find out he's a Jesus trumper and it's a bit https://media.tenor.com/6C-6YhMqTPYAAAAM/the-simpsons-heart-broken.gif
― omar little, Friday, 13 December 2024 17:28 (two months ago) link