aaron judge needs his own thread

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wRC+ of 198 halfway through his rookie season :O

k3vin k., Thursday, 6 July 2017 04:50 (one year ago) Permalink

this dude is ridiculous. unlike Bellinger over in the NL, he seems unstoppable.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 04:52 (one year ago) Permalink

Would much rather have Bellinger.

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 04:59 (one year ago) Permalink

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

k3vin k., Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:02 (one year ago) Permalink

what's the case for bellinger over judge?

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:08 (one year ago) Permalink

the same solid and unassailable case that was made for Dave Justice over Frank Thomas.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:15 (one year ago) Permalink

Bellinger is 21 and Judge is 25, so he's got 2-3 seasons left til his peak would hit. Bellinger has more time but I'm not 100% convinced on him being at this level all the time going forward.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:16 (one year ago) Permalink

though the history of guys his age hitting like this is a pretty good one, especially if you're a dodger fan.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:17 (one year ago) Permalink

yeah, i think they'll both probably be prettttty good

but judge seems like an absolute monster

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:18 (one year ago) Permalink

It seems fairly self-evident to me.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week; Judge is 25. A three-plus year difference at this age is generally a reliable marker of growth potential.

Bellinger's ascension has been rapid and makes sense. His slugging averages in the minors, starting at age 17, have been .358, .474, .538, .515, .627. So .620 this year doesn't strike me as entirely unexpected. Judge's, starting at age 22, read .483, .448, .489, .345 (majors), and .689 this year. I'm just skeptical about that--how many guys learn to hit when they turn 25?

Might be totally wrong, but I'd much rather have the 22-year-old with some clear foundation for his success this year (in a much tougher hitter's park, no less).

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:19 (one year ago) Permalink

but hmm...Judge...Justice...they should get together with Vance Law and play a tourney.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:20 (one year ago) Permalink

i'd be skeptical if he was just mashing dongs, Kingman-style. he's a triple crown threat, though.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:20 (one year ago) Permalink

I don't remember anybody--anybody serious, anyway--thinking that Dave Justice had a brighter future than Frank Thomas in 1991. Besides which, it was Justice who was two years older...

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:21 (one year ago) Permalink

that was a bit of a joke, i didn't do the scouting before i made it. i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:23 (one year ago) Permalink

Judge's HR are impressive, no argument there, but I've got to be skeptical about the batting average. He's struck out 102 times in 286 AB and he's hitting .330. His BABIP (yes, I've been reduced to trotting out BABIP) is .420-something--as has been pointed out here, in the neighborhood of Babe Ruth's 1923 season.

I'm enjoying Judge's season, and he's probably already clinched the MVP (the three Houston guys are going to split all their votes). But I would take Bellinger without a second thought.

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:27 (one year ago) Permalink

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:30 (one year ago) Permalink

if this year is any indication, though, bellinger's poor defense might dull any offensive edge he has on judge

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:31 (one year ago) Permalink

i guess i just don't agree that judge came out of nowhere. his wRC+:

2014 (A - 65 games) 167
2014 (A+ - 66 games) 149
2015 (AA - 63 games) 147
2015 (AAA - 61 games) 98
2016 (AAA - 93 games) 147
2016 (MLB - 27 games) 63
2017 (MLB - 80 games) 196

his outliers are 1) his time in 2015 AAA, which, i don't know, and 2) his 27 games with the yankees last year, which is too small of a sample and his cup of coffee, to boot. in general, he's been around 150 wRC+ since he hit professional baseball, so him kicking ass this year isn't too surprising to me. he'll come down to earth at some point, but i expect that he'll come back to around 150 wRC+ again

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:45 (one year ago) Permalink

(i'm using his wRC+ rather than his rate stats because i have no idea what leagues or stadiums judge or bellinger played in during their minor league careers, so it seems better to use a stat that's league-adjusted)

Karl Malone, Thursday, 6 July 2017 05:47 (one year ago) Permalink

(xxpost) Good stuff--that does give a clearer picture. I went back and looked at league batting leaders for 2014-A and 2016-AAA, and he was third in OPS in A, 10th in AAA, so they were indeed pitcher's leagues. I still think the age gap is significant, though.

Obviously the most scientific way to settle this will be the Home Run Derby.

clemenza, Thursday, 6 July 2017 13:08 (one year ago) Permalink

Judge is making me kinda like the Yankees, so clearly the man knows how to do the impossible

frogbs, Thursday, 6 July 2017 13:17 (one year ago) Permalink

I don't care for age, right now I'm taking Judge. There is no way he ain't regressing; although who knows with Yankee Stadium + juiced ball. He'll remain a monster for a while I'm now certain.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 6 July 2017 20:59 (one year ago) Permalink

it's easier to root for judge bc his name isn't cody

na (NA), Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:01 (one year ago) Permalink

Also, there is a bunch of players under age 23 I'm taking over Bellinger.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:04 (one year ago) Permalink

Judge's Ks don't bother me because he's also leading the league in walks and runs scored, and his BABIP doesn't trouble me or give me false hope because he just hits the ball so hard consistently. he really is having a Frank Thomas/Pujols type season (yes w/more Ks but then again Trout struck out 184 times the year he won his first MVP award.)

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:23 (one year ago) Permalink

I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.

nomar, Thursday, 6 July 2017 21:24 (one year ago) Permalink

Bellinger will turn 22 next week;

Is '17 considered his age-21 or age-22 season?

Cannibal Adderley (WilliamC), Friday, 7 July 2017 01:34 (one year ago) Permalink

21

mookieproof, Friday, 7 July 2017 01:55 (one year ago) Permalink

Judge is probably ending any chance of Harper going to the Yankees so far that I enjoy him.

Van Horn Street, Friday, 7 July 2017 02:50 (one year ago) Permalink

Fangraphs had a piece on this 10 days ago:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-judge-or-cody-bellinger/

They don't really come down on either side. Their last sentence is good:

"And that’s the simple fact that may push some to pick the Dodgers’ first baseman: those three years of catchup that Bellinger has on Judge are very valuable. Even if it looks like just a couple ticks of strikeout rate, a few more walks, and maybe a little better work in the field, it will all add up.

Consider this, though: it might all add up...so that Cody Bellinger is about the same as we’re seeing from Aaron Judge, right now."

clemenza, Friday, 7 July 2017 17:30 (one year ago) Permalink

or he might be Puig.

Van Horn Street, Friday, 7 July 2017 17:40 (one year ago) Permalink

puig was never this good!

k3vin k., Friday, 7 July 2017 17:44 (one year ago) Permalink

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 1:30 AM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

insert albert pujols age joke here

ciderpress, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:13 (one year ago) Permalink

ryan braun another guy who 4-digit OPSed his rookie season though he was 23

ciderpress, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:18 (one year ago) Permalink

insert albert pujols age joke here

― ciderpress, Friday, July 7, 2017 11:13 AM (sixteen minutes ago)

Better age 37 OPS: Albert Pujols or Craig Counsell?

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 7 July 2017 18:34 (one year ago) Permalink

pretty decent chance Albert's career WAR drops below 100 this season. also damn it's extremely possible that Counsell will win that battle having hit .226 with 1 HR that season.

nomar, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:43 (one year ago) Permalink

albert should retire immediately and lock in that 100 before he loses it

ciderpress, Friday, 7 July 2017 18:44 (one year ago) Permalink

puig was never this good!

― k3vin k., Friday, July 7, 2017 1:44 PM (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

Van Horn Street, Saturday, 8 July 2017 00:32 (one year ago) Permalink

#WIGS

c (calstars), Saturday, 8 July 2017 01:08 (one year ago) Permalink

Can we please add intra-ilx tagging

c (calstars), Saturday, 8 July 2017 01:09 (one year ago) Permalink

30

mookieproof, Saturday, 8 July 2017 01:57 (one year ago) Permalink

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

^^oh yeah fair, i thought we were comparing judge to puig

k3vin k., Saturday, 8 July 2017 02:00 (one year ago) Permalink

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/charbjo01.shtml

nomar, Saturday, 8 July 2017 04:20 (one year ago) Permalink

roll me over romeo

mookieproof, Saturday, 8 July 2017 04:23 (one year ago) Permalink

the rookie record is mcgwire with 49 btw O_O

k3vin k., Saturday, 8 July 2017 06:36 (one year ago) Permalink

lol, judge at home run derby is indeed quite the show.

Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 11 July 2017 01:23 (one year ago) Permalink

absurd

k3vin k., Tuesday, 11 July 2017 01:26 (one year ago) Permalink

sheesh

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 11 July 2017 02:04 (one year ago) Permalink

The 500-footers were amazing but the several pop-ups that just happened to go out were too.

Cannibal Adderley (WilliamC), Tuesday, 11 July 2017 02:53 (one year ago) Permalink

None of this is shit compared to the warning-track power Livan Hernandez just displayed in the softball game, though.

Andy K, Tuesday, 11 July 2017 02:55 (one year ago) Permalink

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:30 AM (six days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Paul Goldschmidt probably fits the bill. Judge was a Top 100 prospect though, which Goldschmidt never was.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9218&position=1B

voodoo chili, Wednesday, 12 July 2017 14:15 (one year ago) Permalink

Judge vs. Newton:

http://www.si.com/mlb/2017/07/13/yankees-aaron-judge-home-run-derby-roof-nasa

(Goldschmidt's pretty good, although he was dominant every stop of the way in the minors.)

clemenza, Friday, 14 July 2017 03:34 (one year ago) Permalink

What age did Josh Hamilton make his MLB debut?

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 14 July 2017 03:41 (one year ago) Permalink

Unique circumstances, obviously, but Hamilton debuted at 26 (and had his first big season at 27), so there's some relation there.

No one's mentioned him, but to me, the most cautionary parallel might be Ryan Howard. I know Howard's viewed as a joke now, but he came up at 24, got in half a season at 25--both partial seasons were strong--and at 26 he hit 58 HR with a slash line of .313/.425/.659. Even after adjustments (OPS+ = 167), it was a phenomenal year.

I'm not saying Aaron Judge is Ryan Howard, and there are lots of cautionary parallels for Bellinger, too. But that might be the downside (and Howard did get in five good years).

clemenza, Friday, 14 July 2017 13:21 (one year ago) Permalink

one month passes...

Last night, Aaron Judge struck out in his 36th consecutive game, breaking an ignominious single-season record previously held by pitcher Bill Stoneman in 1971. Adam Dunn fanned in 36 consecutive games between the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Karl Malone, Sunday, 20 August 2017 16:44 (one year ago) Permalink

'unstoppable'

ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 20 August 2017 16:53 (one year ago) Permalink

one month passes...

we're all told not to reveal how we're voting for AL rookie of the year but I will say when I write my article you can feel free to skip it

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) September 25, 2017

ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Monday, 25 September 2017 17:43 (one year ago) Permalink

49, tying mcgwire

mookieproof, Monday, 25 September 2017 17:53 (one year ago) Permalink

resumed being unstoppable.

nomar, Monday, 25 September 2017 18:07 (one year ago) Permalink

.301/.438/.863 in Sept

might win him points with the Strong Finish demo

ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Monday, 25 September 2017 18:23 (one year ago) Permalink

as of yesterday both Judge and McGwire had achieved an OPS+ of 164 in their rookie year. not sure how the metrics would bear out but Judge's season looks a bit more impressive right now -- they're very, very similar but AJ has scored 122 runs to McGwire's 97, and walked 119 times to McGwire's 71. I guess there's also the 1987 thing to take into account, but of course 2017 seems like a 1987 type season so idk.

nomar, Monday, 25 September 2017 18:27 (one year ago) Permalink

isn't OPS+ relative to the league/year?

ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Monday, 25 September 2017 18:35 (one year ago) Permalink

yeah

k3vin k., Monday, 25 September 2017 18:40 (one year ago) Permalink

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKl7vNtW4AAI8Iu.jpg:small

mookieproof, Monday, 25 September 2017 19:21 (one year ago) Permalink

awesome, hope he goes on to make a billion dollars

frogbs, Monday, 25 September 2017 22:20 (one year ago) Permalink

Heard this morning he's the sixth 50-HR/120-BB guy (arbitrary cut-offs, I know)...Bonds, Ruth, Foxx for sure; my other two guesses would be McGwire and Thome.

clemenza, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 11:53 (one year ago) Permalink

Wasn't sure about the last spot, but that's it; Thome had a 52-122 season, Sosa 64-116. McGwire was walking more than I'd remembered--162 the year he hit 70.

clemenza, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 11:57 (one year ago) Permalink

not ted williams?

k3vin k., Tuesday, 26 September 2017 12:06 (one year ago) Permalink

huh, forgot he only hit 40 homers in a season once

k3vin k., Tuesday, 26 September 2017 12:07 (one year ago) Permalink

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/aaron-judge-was-amazing-aaron-judge-was-a-bum-now-hes-amazing-again/

On that list of greatest rookie seasons, I've never even heard of Benny Kauff (#5).

clemenza, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 21:29 (one year ago) Permalink

Corey: Now that we seen the best and worst of Judge in a 13 month span (twice), any expectations for what his baseline will be?
12:30
Dave Cameron: Stanton with more walks.
12:30
Dave Cameron: A top-3 MLB hitter, basically.
12:30
Troutmaggedon: If you were building a team would you rather have Bellinger or Judge going forward?
12:31
Dave Cameron: Judge

k3vin k., Thursday, 28 September 2017 12:17 (one year ago) Permalink

three weeks pass...

Co-sign. Of all the athletes I’ve ever interviewed or featured, Judge is in the top echelon as far as being a quality human being https://t.co/HmyLhLF53F

— Kyle Glaser (@KyleAGlaser) October 19, 2017

when writers badmouth players i always take it with a grain of salt -- could be nothing more than 'he wasn't talkative/didn't give me the quotes i needed to make my story good' -- but when they're praising you as a person you might be doing something right

mookieproof, Thursday, 19 October 2017 13:56 (one year ago) Permalink

Michael Baumann on today's Ringer podcast (in the middle of a beautiful 10-minute anti-"plucky"-Yankees rant): Judge is "as bland and boring as Derek Jeter."

ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Friday, 20 October 2017 00:24 (one year ago) Permalink

one month passes...
five months pass...

Judge winning out in the unofficial competition against Bellinger once again.

omar little, Sunday, 13 May 2018 04:48 (seven months ago) Permalink

one month passes...

His BABIP is again freakishly high at .363 (.357 last year). He's .353 for his career now, which would put him tied for 7th on this (five-year-old) career list if he had enough AB, with four of the guys ahead of him only there because of their historic batting averages:

http://waswatching.com/2013/06/24/highest-career-babip-min-3000-pa/

Can he keep this up? I don't know--I expected him to come back to earth this year, and thus far he hasn't.

clemenza, Wednesday, 4 July 2018 16:06 (five months ago) Permalink

it's not that high given his skillset...he hits the ball really hard, runs well, and doesn't pop it up a lot. he's going to run high BABIPs

k3vin k., Wednesday, 4 July 2018 16:26 (five months ago) Permalink

one month passes...

Would much rather have Bellinger.

― clemenza,

i appreciate bold claims like this, i really do! and after last year, it was at least a plausible viewpoint, especially considering bellinger's relative youth.

but i must ask you now - would you still rather have cody bellinger?

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 17:44 (four months ago) Permalink

Is Judge even going to come back this season?

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 7 August 2018 18:00 (four months ago) Permalink

maybe after Labor Day, sounds like

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 7 August 2018 18:26 (four months ago) Permalink

tbh i kinda forgot he was even injured, but i guess he's supposed to back in a couple of weeks. no surgery.

xpost

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 18:26 (four months ago) Permalink

Karl--I honestly didn't view preferring Bellinger at that point to be very bold; it was completely in line with a lot of research (by James, whose credibility I realize is pretty shaky on this board) as to the future prospects of a 21-year-old vs. a 25-year-old. That's a four-year window; that's quite a jump. Add to that all of Judge's strikeouts and park factors, and it looked like an obvious pick to me. Bellinger also had a pretty historic season last year.

Right now, it obviously looks bad; it'd be an easy time to second-guess. I'm still willing to give it a couple years...that's the whole idea of the window, I think, that Bellinger is young enough that he may not yet be close to where he ends up.

clemenza, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 20:46 (four months ago) Permalink

one month passes...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnJuBgmWwAERpN0.jpg:small

mookieproof, Saturday, 15 September 2018 19:51 (two months ago) Permalink

Bellinger's having a okay year:

.261/.344/.471 (.267/.352/.581 last year)
120 OPS+ (143)
3.6 WAR (4.2)
2B, BB, K the same (in 40 extra AB)

Basically the same season...with the one big difference very significant: 15 fewer home runs. If this is were he levels off, he's nothing special. But he's still only 22, so he's got time.

(Previous discussion will explain why I'm posting this here.)

clemenza, Monday, 17 September 2018 12:31 (two months ago) Permalink

"where he levels off"

clemenza, Monday, 17 September 2018 12:32 (two months ago) Permalink

And not helped by his park:

.245/.331/.484 at home for his career, .281/.364/.562 on the road.

clemenza, Monday, 17 September 2018 12:34 (two months ago) Permalink

Aaron Judge returns to the #Yankees lineup: pic.twitter.com/IDENp1GwYs

— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) September 18, 2018

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 18 September 2018 20:07 (two months ago) Permalink


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