Chapman, Jansen, and Kimbrel: Numbers in a Vacuum?

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These three guys are so close: in age (born within eight months of each other), in IP (between 390-430), in overall dominance, in bad timing (in terms of awards and possible HOF consideration one day--they're doing just fine in remuneration). Will one of them break away from the other two and go on to put up career numbers within range of Mariano? Will all three break down within five years? Are their rate stats legitimately unprecedented or more a product of the game today? Whose long-term prospects are the best?

Chapman: 389.2 IP, 189 SV, 188 ERA+, 1.006 WHIP, 1.87 FIP, 3.67 K/BB, 13.7 WAR
Jansen: 431.2 IP, 198 SV, 174 ERA+, 0.880 WHIP, 1.84 FIP, 5.65 K/BB, 12.7 WAR
Kimbrel: 426.2 IP, 272 SV, 216 ERA+, 0.921 WHIP, 1.79 FIP, 4.23 K/BB, 15.8 WAR
Mariano: 416.0 IP, 211 SV, 205 ERA+, 1.000 WHIP, 2.76 FIP, 4.10 K/BB, 18.3 WAR

I pro-rated Mariano for 416 IP, an average of the other three. I didn't include Andrew Miller because his career path is very different. 538 says he's the best reliever in the game right now:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/andrew-miller-doesnt-have-any-saves-and-hes-the-best-reliever-in-baseball/

Poll Results

OptionVotes
Craig Kimbrel 4
Aroldis Chapman 0
Kenley Jansen 0


clemenza, Sunday, 4 June 2017 23:07 (six years ago) link

Poll in a vacuum...Are closers held in such low repute nowadays that never-before-seen K rates and H/9 and FIPs hardly raise an eyebrow? I just feel like these three guys exist apart from everyone else since Mariano.

clemenza, Wednesday, 7 June 2017 02:00 (six years ago) link

Kimbrel number seem slighty more insane than those other insane numbers.

Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 7 June 2017 03:35 (six years ago) link

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

System, Sunday, 11 June 2017 00:01 (six years ago) link

Chapman seems to have perhaps peaked as he has had some stretches this year and a couple last year when not as good. I'd think Jansen's size might wear on him more as he gets older. I'd think Kimbrel might be the choice here for me.

earlnash, Sunday, 11 June 2017 02:16 (six years ago) link

I was thinking that Jansen's size might make him more durable, but he does carry too much weight (Mariano and Hoffman were both around 6'1"/200 lbs). I voted for Kimbrel anyway. With all the usual caveats, his line this year has at least three ridiculous numbers: 2.6 H/9, an adjusted ERA of 465, and a 0.22 FIP.

clemenza, Sunday, 11 June 2017 02:55 (six years ago) link

i'm sure there have been studies, but i have no idea why weight would have anything to do with a pitcher's durability

mookieproof, Sunday, 11 June 2017 06:05 (six years ago) link

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

System, Monday, 12 June 2017 00:01 (six years ago) link

I don't foresee any Cy Youngs in the near future for this group. Where have you gone Steve Bedrosian and Mark Davis, Jon Heyman turns his lonely eyes to you...

clemenza, Monday, 12 June 2017 00:32 (six years ago) link

none of these guys is likely to have a rivera-like career imo

k3vin k., Monday, 12 June 2017 16:59 (six years ago) link

I can envision any one of them having a regular-season career that matches (possibly even exceeds) Mariano's rate stats, with somewhere between (if anybody cares) 400-500 saves. Where no one's going to come even close is his postseason record.

clemenza, Monday, 12 June 2017 18:04 (six years ago) link

directly relevant to this thread's interests:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kenley-jansen-is-mariano-rivera-2-0/

k3vin k., Thursday, 22 June 2017 05:45 (six years ago) link

I don't foresee any Cy Youngs in the near future for this group. Where have you gone Steve Bedrosian and Mark Davis, Jon Heyman turns his lonely eyes to you...

― clemenza, Monday, June 12, 2017 1:32 AM (one week ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

a cy young for any of these dudes would require the cream of the starting pitching crop in a season being a group of guys with 16-10 type seasons with ERAs around 3, while some reliever goes off for 50 saves and an ERA around 1.50, while also having some kind of intangible. like a super-dirty cap.

nomar, Thursday, 22 June 2017 06:30 (six years ago) link

three weeks pass...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kenley-jansen-is-too-busy-helping-the-dodgers-win-to-get-saves/

Don't know if the goose egg has a future, or if it's headed to the graveyard with game-winning RBIs.

clemenza, Thursday, 13 July 2017 17:49 (six years ago) link

even a dinosaur like Keith Hernandez said "game-winning RBIs" were a crock

never heard of this goose egg

Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 13 July 2017 18:11 (six years ago) link

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/goose-egg-new-save-stat-relief-pitchers/

"clutch, scoreless relief innings"

voodoo chili, Thursday, 13 July 2017 19:21 (six years ago) link

five years pass...

Kimbrel is a steaming pile of dogshittle. TF is he doing out there closing an AllStar game.

citation needed (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 12 July 2023 03:27 (nine months ago) link

notching an extremely fraught save, steve shasta

mookieproof, Wednesday, 12 July 2023 03:42 (nine months ago) link

14 saves and a 3.41 ERA (which is kinda like having a 6.00 ERA as a starter)--no idea why he's there either.

clemenza, Wednesday, 12 July 2023 03:53 (nine months ago) link


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