Selling off players at a Guaranteed Rate: 2017 Chicago White Sox

prediction: they will not be great but they will be entertaining

no Sale

also this is likely the "last season of significant play-by-play work" for hawk harrelson: http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/ken-harrelson-likely-to-cut-back-schedule-even-more-after-2017/amp/

they've still (for now) got abreu, frazier, quintana, and robertson, some decent roleplayers, and now they've got giolito, fulmer, moncada, tilson, etc etc coming up. of course they've still got james shields too.

should've written "plus some decent roleplayers"

it's impressive how far and how quickly ppls' estimation of giolito has plummeted -- curious to see how he does. tbf his six games with the nationals were truly putrid

kopech today: 2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K, hitting triple digits. he's 20

hitting 103 is the new hitting 100

saw something the other day about a (good) pitcher hitting 92 and was all ~who cares~

it is absurd

White Sox look to me a team that could win 90 or lose 90 depending on how it all fits together.

http://deadspin.com/white-sox-sign-tim-anderson-to-long-term-deal-1793481163

this seems like a lot of money for tim anderson?

passan likes it

@JeffPassan
Tim Anderson deal may be incredible for White Sox. $25M for pre-FA years, another $25.5M via option for first two FA years. Little downside.

yeah i guess over 6 years it's not that much money, he just doesn't seem particularly good

in crazy baseball $ terms it might be a bargain. he looks like he could be worth a couple WAR per year with his glove alone, and the going rate is around $8 to 9 million/WAR.

maybe during those six years he'll learn to take a walk

i haven't seen him play much, but maybe he has a version of the billy hamilton issue where pitchers have no reason to do anything other than pump in strikes since he makes weak contact

they've still (for now) got abreu, frazier, quintana, and robertson, some decent roleplayers, and now they've got giolito, fulmer, moncada, tilson, etc etc coming up

i never like to see a team half-ass it when they rebuild. not saying the white sox are doing that (trading sale and eaton were gutsy moves) but i think they definitely should've traded robertson while they had the chance. i'm sure they're probably waiting till midseason when his value could be higher, but he's a reliever (mercurial by nature) with a big contract, and if he tanks then they're stuck with him. i know the nats were trying to get something done, and i bet they weren't offering scrubs.

frazier and abreu are definitely midseason candidates, too, and it made sense to wait on trading those guys. i'm pretty confident the former will reestablish his value, and who knows about the latter, but he'll probably be better than last season (which, offensively, wasn't even a terrible year).

holding onto quintana makes sense imo, with affordable control till 2020.

Just in advance of this writing, the White Sox and Anderson agreed to a six-year contract worth $25 million. The deal also comes with a couple of club options, and as I think we’ve all gotten used to, the contract appears to come with big team-friendly upside. These early extensions tend to do that. Still, a couple things. One, Anderson won’t ever have to worry about money again, which has to be an unparalleled feeling for a 23-year-old with just a few months of big-league experience. And two, there are the red flags. Anderson, in the majors, had nine times as many strikeouts as walks. He ran a contact rate around 70%, and no regular or semi-regular in the game spent more time than Anderson behind in the count. Anderson’s approach is legitimately worrisome, even despite his 95 wRC+.

Since I try to see the best in people, that 95 wRC+ is still fine. And after Anderson drew just one walk in both June and July, he drew five in August and six in September. There’s pop in there, and Anderson also handled himself just peaches at a premium position. Odds are, the White Sox are going to have a significant surplus asset. It’s just, Anderson has work to do, and that work is going to be hard. That approach of his isn’t closely linked to big-league success.

are they manipulating Moncada's service time or is the clock already running and they're being... weird?

the former i believe

^^^

deadspin has been covering white sox moves very extensively this spring and i am struggling to discern the level of irony involved: http://deadspin.com/tag/blight-sox

marchman is a white sox fan, so i'm sure some bitterness comes into play

they did it w the cards last season

http://deadspin.com/white-sox-send-game-used-autographed-gordon-beckham-sh-1794273735

this dude tommy kahnle who got called up to close is throwing almost every pitch at 100 mph

100 mph slider, 99 mph curve

From what I heard in a telecast, they were saying the new radar system the MLB is using for pitch speed tracking seems to be kicking up the results a MPH or two compared to the old one.

yep: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/about-all-these-velocity-spikes/

i think the 100 mph slider/curves were almost certainly a pitch misclassification, though. the average curveball velocity is in the upper 70s (fastest one belongs to carlos martinez at close to 85mph), and sliders typically sit in the mid-80s.

i just watched his appearance and it looked like nearly all 100mph fastballs plus an occasional 90mph slider.

who am i going to believe, you or mlb gameday

lol

the whole pitcher velocity measurement thing is interesting and weird, though. more and more we're all paying attention to it, i think, or at least it seems more commonly discussed than it once was. pitchf/x and statcast introduced the possibility of a baseline for velocity comparison, but then every year they fuck with it a little and all the readings bounce a bit. it's still possible to compare velocities from year to year if you remember to account for the differences, but it's annoying enough that most people don't bother.

but at the same time, the statcast calibrations are probably necessary. the one for this year came from changing the moment the velocity is measured to the moment the ball leaves the pitcher's hand. previously it was measured in 5-ft away or so, or something? changing it to something more precise seems like an improvement.

lonely guy just thinking about baseball

@whitesox
Tonight will mark the 1st game in @MLB history in which a team starts all 3 outfielders with the same last name.

that is

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/04/14/the-white-sox-are-starting-an-all-garcia-outfield-tonight/

i'd thought the Alous started together but no

quintana doesn't want to get traded I guess

Welcome, Mike Pelfrey.

mike pelfrey has made $38m in his career. with an ERA+ of 88. and he's not even lefty

no wonder goose gossage is so pissed off every spring, i guess

anthony swarzak has had enough of your shit

The #WhiteSox today announced that Ken “Hawk” Harrelson will return for his 34th and final year in the broadcast booth in 2018. pic.twitter.com/lpL3PUgDSQ

— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) May 31, 2017

anderson with a 79 wRC+ so far, and fangraphs has him below replacement (largely because it hates his defense this year, it seems)

idk, he's going to be 24 in a few weeks. if he hasn't learned not to swing at everything by now, when will he?

pre-2017 service time of current roster position players

L. Garcia 2.025
Y. Sanchez 1.134
J. Abreu 3.0
M. Davidson .145
Y. Moncada .031
O. Narvaez .089
A. Hansen .038
T. Anderson .115
A. Engel .000
K. Smith .061
T. Saladino 1.087
W. Garcia .000

NA otm re: tim anderson

199 games, 20 homers, 230 strikeouts, 23 walks, and supposedly his defense has gone to shit as well. it's still not a lot of money in the grand scheme of things, and could work out if he'd merely be league-average, but it's hardly promising

Side note: The @whitesox 1990 Top 10 was stacked: Sammy Sosa, Frank Thomas, Robin Ventura, Wilson Alvarez, Roberto Hernandez, Scott Radinsky, Craig Grebeck... pic.twitter.com/s4aj18rUo4

— Kyle Glaser (@KyleAGlaser) January 9, 2018

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--Zbj5ugJy--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/xgfew7vfpvkqocgycn6q.jpg

guaranteed rate's

there are . . . not a lot of people at guaranteed rate field today

it snowed all morning and the real feel is 27
at least they're playing, the cubs home opener was postponed

Is Wrigleyville in a colder microclimate? I noticed that one CHI team played and the other didn't.

it was the cubs' opener, so i assume they scheduled tomorrow off

Somebody running the scoreboard has a sense of humor. #WhiteSox pic.twitter.com/fKll1CPDQU

— Brian Sandalow (@BrianSandalow) April 9, 2018