Stay Healthy, Please: The Clayton Kershaw Thread

4 walks for kershaw tonight. he hasn't looked quite right this year
― k3vin k., Saturday, May 6, 2017 11:17 PM (one month ago)

Having a great year, but I think you were onto something there. 7-0 lead tonight, proceeded to give up three HR; that's 16 for the year, tying his career high before the break.

make that 4

how the fuck did he give up 2 to Reyes?

cheap 6-ER win for CK.

past calendar year:

kershaw: 137.1 IP, 3.5 fWAR
jansen: 69.1 IP, 3.7 fWAR

Got out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the first, great after that.

Overall, definitely his shakiest year in a while. Going through his game log, though, he's only had the one (really) cheap win last week; every other win was 7+ innings, 0, 1, or 2 runs. There was one cheap no-decision (4.1 innings, 4 runs), and he wasn't good in either loss (6 innings and 4 runs in both). His other two no-decisions he pitched well (16 innings, 2 runs).

It wouldn't be accurate to say the gaudy W-L record is a mirage--reverse the cheap win, call the no-decisions a wash, and he'd be 10-3.

It's the home runs that have killed him this year (leading to his worst FIP since 2010 by a big margin). Everything else is right in line with 2011-2013 Kershaw, if not always the last three seasons.

he's 93-0 when dodgers give him at least 4 runs of support

Wanted to get some context for that, but Baseball Reference breaks down pitcher's starts by 0-2 runs of support, 3-5, and 6+. Anyway, with 6+:

Clemens: 179-5
Johnson: 160-11
Pedro: 105-3
Maddux: 173-10

Am I reading that correctly? All of them got six or more runs of support in half their wins? That seems really high.

all of them played half their careers in the steroid era

It's almost like there's something flawed with the Win statistic ;)

I knew I was teeing one up there...Had no idea the percentage was that high, though. Era would explain some of that, yeah; I also wonder if that includes runs scored for the entire game, i.e. any runs scored after the pitcher leaves. So a guy could leave with a 2-1 lead in the seventh, his team scores four runs in the eighth/ninth, and it ends up looking like he won a blowout.

Since his terrible start against the Cubs:

36 IP, 22 H, 51 K, 6 BB, 2 ER.

pretty sure that includes 4 shutouts in his last 5 outings (incl one stretch of 3 in a row!) i think maybe you mean against the mets, clem, when he gave up 3 or 4 homers june 19

June 19 against the Mets, you're right--the Cubs go back to May 28. He had three good starts between the two.

Clayton Kershaw disappeared into the trainers' room after the top half of the second inning, and now Ross Stripling is warming up. Looks like he will take it from here. No word yet on what might be ailing Kershaw, who has been pitching at his best.

dammit. missed the beginning of the game, just tuned in to see him leave the field and there's been no conjecture what's wrong except he was holding his hip as he walked off after the top of the 2nd

Who's the idiot who titled this thread?

@BNightengale
Clayton Kershaw will go on DL, #Dodgers manager Dave Roberts says. with no timetable on return; tests scheduled Monday on his back.

fuck

Best player, best pitcher, and #1 future-superstar all in the same season--and you can throw in Beltre, chasing two major milestones.

:(

Sinking feeling he's going to take the Koufax parallels too far.

btw Koufax started 314 games (+ 70some relief outings early on), threw 2324 innings

Kershaw: 284 starts, 1901 innings

koufax also started when injuries were still treated with leeches and miracle elixirs

yep, that's why cross-era comparisons are foggy

out for 4-6 weeks apparently.

guess Scherzer will grab Cy #3 barring a total collapse and an incredible Kershaw komeback

such a bummer

(xpost) It's in my own best interest for Scherzer to win (a HOF bet I posted about elsewhere), but I can still easily see Kershaw winning. Scherzer's last start was poor; if he has a couple of more mediocre starts while Kershaw's out, and Kershaw comes back with a strong September, it'd be close, I think. Kershaw's numbers are frozen at a pretty impressive place for the next four weeks.

Bill James's leaderboard is tightening (in the original article he designated 600 as "a historic level").

Kershaw - 610.1
Scherzer - 609.3
Sale - 596.7
Kluber - 585.1

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/245168842/dodgers-clayton-kershaws-back-injury-better/

Can't see that there's any incentive to re-activate him too soon with their lead.

Went to the game last night. So damn much fun thx in part to G'ints' bullpen

clayton kershaw is expected to make his triple-a debut saturday in oklahoma city

What was the true nature of Kershaw's crap start?

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/20669761/clayton-kershaw-thin-line-one-bad-start-catastrophe

Altherred history

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/9/18/16331508/dodgers-clayton-kershaw-first-grand-slam-phillies-aaron-altherr

the streak lives

Kershaw's career ERA after each season of his career:
4.26
3.36
3.17
2.88
2.79
2.60
2.48
2.43
2.37
2.36https://t.co/UUjKUuvBAH

— Ben Lindbergh (@BenLindbergh) October 1, 2017

Hannah Hochevar
Fun to watch the Kershaw arm angle last night. Seemed like he dropped down a few times again. Announcers were saying that some of his problems this year are due to hitters being more geared for low balls in general. Agree?

Jeff Sullivan
He's worked lower than he usually does this season. Not that his season was in any way bad. And I don't have a good explanation for the postseason dingers, aside from, welp
The drop-down slot continues to intrigue me, because it's interesting while also not being so helpful. Kershaw hasn't pitched all that well from the second arm slot, but he's still doing it in the playoffs, suggesting that he thinks it's worth the trick
Did it four times last night. Two strikes, all fastballs, all elevated

Dallas Cankle:
If Clayton Kershaw opts-out next year what’s the highest Farhan Friedman goes before saying uncle?

Paul Swydan:
I think that’ll actually be a really interesting discussion. They don’t seem like the kind of front office who will be swayed by sentiment, and if Kershaw has back problems for a third consecutive season in 2018, I could see the Dodgers not making much of an effort to keep him at all.

what's up

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-the-crack-in-clayton-kershaws-armor/

just came to post that story. something I've been noticing and dreading for a year or so now

Welp:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23664559/los-angeles-dodgers-ace-clayton-kershaw-mri-back-tightens-1st-game-back

All 20 of Clayton Kershaw's four-seam fastballs were 90.0 mph or slower in his outing Thursday night, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Last year, not a single one of his 1,142 four-seam fastballs was 90.0 mph or slower.

yikes

His back was giving him problems though. He probably returned too soon.

Seems like he is back for at least a month on the DL.

What a bummer.

Won his 150th this afternoon.

Hard to know where he's at right now. He hasn't been as dominant this year, but he has been surprisingly consistent. His WHIP and K/BB ratios are back where they were four or five years ago, before he started posting off-the-chart numbers; his ERA and ERA+ match his career line. In 18 starts, he's given four runs once, three runs twice, no runs twice, and all the rest were one or two runs--as I say, consistent. His average Game Score is 60; in his MVP year, it was 70. If he gets healthy and settles in where he is right now, that'd be fine; no longer the best pitcher in baseball, but consistently one of the five or six best. "If he gets healthy," though, contains a lot--he's had three abbreviated seasons in a row.

adjusting

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/clayton-kershaws-disappearing-fastball/

kershaw trivia: the only time his mouth is not hanging wide open is when he's delivering a pitch

off that point a bit, Morbs, it is interesting to see the top SPs in MLB this year and how the vast majority of them don't just have more strikeouts than innings pitched, but substantially more to what must be a historic degree. and Kershaw of all people is one of the comparative few from that group whose Ks are less than 9 per 9 IP.

He's been on the DL twice this year. Can't remember the last time he had a healthy season tbqh... 2015? or '13?

...posted in "Stay Healthy, Please: The Clayton Kershaw Thread" lol

I must bear the responsibility for putting the curse on him.

Kristen:
Kershaw has been trending downwards the past few seasons in terms of FIP, FB velocity, SwStr%, Hard Hit%, etc. Add his contract demands and is it possible his market won’t be huge after all?

Jay Jaffe:
His market may not even be bigger than the team that still has exclusive rights to negotiate with him. But the extended negotiating period signals that he’d prefer to stay, and I think it’s just a matter of finding the right number. The Dodgers are clearly comfortable paying a premium to keep him.