Stay Healthy, Please: The Clayton Kershaw Thread

I don't doubt that, but Steve Carlton was pretty ahead of the curve on training for his day, so was Nolan Ryan for that matter.

On a related note, Jeter tied Gehrig on the career doubles list today. Evolution marches on.

let's see him do it with lou gehrig's disease

Zach: yes, I use Baseball Reference's numbers, mostly out of convenience. I like Jay Jaffe's method of splitting the difference--Posnanski explained the rationale for doing so in terms of Pedro's '99 and '00 seasons, and it made sense to me.

Another gem and now it's 36 scoreless innings.

8 scoreless in coors counts double i think

I'm goin his next start Thursday vs SD at home

High Heat Stats had a little chart the other day showing how close Kershaw and Sale were in most basic categories. Sale had last night's start since then, so I'll update.

IP: Kershaw (87.1), Sale (95.0)
W-L: Kershaw (10-2), Sale (8-1)
H/9: Kershaw (6.6), Sale (6.1)
K/BB: Kershaw (9.58), Sale (6.38)
WHIP: Kershaw (1.077), Sale (1.061)
ERA: Kershaw (1.85), Sale (2.08)
ERA+: Kershaw (190), Sale (193)

K/BB is the only sizable gap, where Sale's struggling along at a 6-1 ratio.

Also, I feel compelled to mention that Kershaw + Sale =

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/backissues/pauline-kael.jpg

welp, 41 innings and "phffft"

LA crowd most upset that they ran out of Hello Kitty travel mugs

I was looking at the game logs for Kershaw and Wainwright. They've each had three problem starts.

Kershaw:

One bad start: 1.2 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K, 7 R, lost.
Two okay starts: 14 IP, 14 H, 1 BB, 18 K, 6 R, lost both. ("Okay" for Kershaw--both were quality.)

Wainwright:

Two bad starts: 9.1 IP, 18 H, 3 BB, 8 K, 13 R, lost both.
One mediocre start: 7 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 8 K, 4 R, won.

Together, here's what they've done in their other 27 starts:

202.1 IP, 121 H (5.37/9), 34 BB, 194 K (5.71 K/BB), 17 R (0.76 ERA), 22-1.

fuck ESPN, i thought they might improve but all they care about is big market teams but tonight St. Louis gets the treatment.

if not for that DL stint, he's prob be heavy fave for MVP; as of now, should still win it

yeah who else is there really? lucroy and mccutcheon i guess? they're having really excellent seasons but nothing close to kersh.

i would be shocked if anyone other than kersh or puig won

I was going to mention Puig, but didn't want everyone yelling WAR at me (a modest 3.8 on Baseball Reference--negative for defense).

McCutchen is on the DL with his rib, who knows how much more he'll play; and aside from Lucroy and Stanton -- who I could see winning only if the Marlins get a WC, or if he hits 45 HR -- most of the nonpitcher contenders got hurt in the last month.

I heard one of the laziest sports talk radio bits of all time - some challopy shit about Kershaw not being good 'in the playoffs' and only using stats from when he was like 20-21 and one bad start in the last game of the playoffs last year after racking up 250+ fucking IP.

I know its stupid to get annoyed with such things but good lord these people dont know shit about baseball.

Eight innings tonight, three hits, two walks, 10 K, 15th win. His WAR should be around 7.0 tomorrow in just over 150 IP.

Starting to make a rout of the MVP--his last five or six starts would have to be noticeably bad for the writers to look for other options (none of which are really compelling at the moment).

If I had to predict now, I'd say Kershaw/Lucroy 1-2, unless Cutch heals miraculously and leads the Corsairs to October.

i get the feeling the debate is gonna be cutch vs stanton if the marlins keep being WC relevant

kershaw missed too many games to break the no-pitchers rule and lucroy isn't having enough of a posey/mauer-ish MVP season offensively to make snoozing writers care

even with the missed games, he leads the majors in wins and his ERA starts with a 1. there's plenty to like from a traditional standpoint

he'll win CY sure but so many writers are literally "the MVP is the hitting award", verlander had 24 wins and 250 innings when he won

would be awesome if he and felix both won tho

Last night was indeed a marquee match-up for four and two-thirds innings...Posnanski:

In total, Kershaw is on pace to become just the fifth pitcher since Deadball to have a sub-2.00 ERA and FIP. The previous four are all-time seasons:

1946: Hal Newhouser, 1.94 ERA, 1.97 FIP
1963: Sandy Koufax, 1.88 ERA, 1.85 FIP
1968: Bob Gibson, 1.12 ERA, 1.77 FIP
1971: Tom Seaver, 1.76 ERA, 1.93 FIP
2014: Clayton Kershaw, 1.70 ERA, 1.89 FIP

http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/era-fip-and-kershaw/#comments

Doesn't happen very often, I bet: pitcher having a historically great season up against a team that seems to have a historically anemic offense. Of course, to coin a phrase, baseball is a funny game, so if he doesn't pitch a perfect game, maybe he'll give up six runs instead.

he takes forever to pitch

I really don't want to end up as someone who obsesses over WAR, but I'm confused as to why he was 7.8 yesterday, and still 7.8 after an 8-inning start where he gave up 3 hits, 2 walks, and one earned run, and he struck out 8. He did give up a couple of unearned runs. Does WAR penalize for unearned runs? (Which I don't have a major problem with; James always thought runs allowed was more important than earned runs allowed.)

are you sure they've updated the numbers yet?

They have. Baseball Reference updates each morning sometime around 9:00; if the standing are updated, that means everything has been updated.

i don't think rWAR distinguishes between earned and unearned runs

for pitching, i prefer fWAR altho it's not perfect.

fangraphs also has daily updates (he got 0.3 yesterday)

had no idea rWAR includes unearned runs though i guess that makes sense

Today, he went up by 0.1 on Baseball Reference. I guess the rest of the league got worse as he sat watching.

didn't realize hes only given up 33 earned runs and 27 walks all season ¯\(°_0)/¯

19-3 now. take away his horrible start against arizona early in the season and his ERA is 1.38.

If he wins his next start, he'd get to 20 in his 27th start. SweetSpot: "Only one pitcher since 1901 has won 20 games in so few appearances -- Jesse Tannehill of the 1902 Pirates, who went 20-6 in 26 games."

wins, feh

Jeff Weaver won 20 in only 30 starts in 2012. What's really amazing is that he didn't pitch deep into games like Kershaw does -- he only had 188 IP, and I think that's a record. Kershaw is at 185 IP, so the record is safe.

sorry, Jered Weaver, not Taco Weaver.

wins, feh

I would have thought this would be one instance where wins actually are an accurate measure of excellence, along with everything else.

what if he was having the same year, but pitching for the Padres?

Kershaw's wins:

19-0, 146.2 IP, 87 H, 172/22 K/BB, 0.80 ERA, no cheap wins (though he did only pitch 5 innings in one of them; one run). Craig Kimbrel as a starter, basically, but with fewer strikeouts and better control.

what I'm saying is with a lousy offensive team, some of those wins would be NDs or even a loss or two. Which has nothing to do with him.

Pitcher wins are an excellent measure of 19th-century accounting.

You've picked the most extreme example...sure, in that case he'd probably be 16-6 or something. Which doesn't change the fact that, with Kershaw, his W-L record is an accurate measure of how well he's pitched.

except for all the other ones.

Which doesn't change the fact that, with Kershaw, his W-L record is an accurate measure of how well he's pitched.

Your sentence doesn't follow from mine--I don't think I said the most accurate, just one of many. I mean, I understand what you're saying, but you're using a hypothetical situation (what if he pitched for the Padres) to cast doubt on something we know to be true: Kershaw's 19-3 because he's been phenomenal, not because of run support or any other factor beyond his control. (Not sure what his run support's been, but I'm sure most of it has been superfluous.)

NO, HE IS 19-3 IN PART *BECAUSE* HIS TEAM SCORES FREQUENTLY

k bye

Sorry, I just think that's factually wrong.

The 19 wins:
0 earned runs -- 8 times
1 earned run -- 9 times
2 earned runs -- 2 times

The 3 losses:
3 earned runs -- 2 times
7 earned runs -- 1 time

The 3 no-decisions:
3 earned runs -- 3 times

What you're saying would have a little or a lot of validity with most pitchers. I don't see that it has any validity here. If you can take those games and explain how 19-3 overstates Kershaw's excellence, I'd be interested in hearing that. Unless you're arguing that he should be even better than 19-3--that some of those losses and no-decisions might have been wins--in which case you have a point.

Wins have more meaning for pitchers who average more innings per start. At 7.4 IP/start (tops in MLB, I think), Kershaw has a lot more control over the outcome of the game than a 6 IP/game pitcher whose W-L record is more influenced by the quality of his team's bullpen.

Playoff Kershaw returned last night with a typical performance ... dominated into the 6th and started serving up longballs (although he made a good pitch to Machado).

roberts needs to treat kershaw like any other playoff starting pitcher - first sign of trouble, get him out of there. no need to go through the lineup a 3rd time.

Two excellent starts after that dreadful first one. I didn't know Baseball Reference had a player-to-player comparison feature that saves you all the work. Kershaw and Koufax have pitched almost exactly the same number of innings at this point (Kershaw's pitched ~25 more).

https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?player_id2=koufasa01&type=p&player_id1=kershcl01&sum=0&request=1

Unless you factor in postseason, hard to not to give that to Kershaw.

Sorry but Koufax has 9 saves.

damn, he's a fireman!

Their opposing-batter slash line is almost identical: .209/.261/.319 for Kershaw, .205/.275/.319 for Koufax.

Price is the difference! Koufax’s salary over that period, when adjusted for inflation, only $3,480,575.58.

Cubs scored four in the first today, Kershaw replaced in the second; shortest start ever?

didn't seem right, lots of balls in the dirt

It was his shortest:

https://www.mlb.com/news/clayton-kershaw-makes-shortest-career-start-vs-cubs

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRpDXIWXMAIQDAt?format=jpg&name=small

That's a great list because those are probably the seven most famous Dodger pitchers...maybe Don Newcombe, too.

yeah, amazing list! i'm not sure how much people remember dazzy vance these days. my deep cut dodgers pitcher is preacher roe.

The best
https://deadline.com/2022/07/boy-approaches-clayton-kershaw-at-press-conference-my-grandpa-loved-you-im-meeting-you-for-him-1235072946/

Another reason why no other sport can touch baseball

https://i.imgur.com/dZndZst.png

what's the big deal? this is pretty much my identical back pain history

Right? At my house we call that "5:30 every morning."

i can totally throw, i just need someone to put my socks on and tie my cleats

Kershaw notches 200th career victory as Dodgers defeat Mets

Is Clayton Kershaw the best regular season pitcher ever? pic.twitter.com/IK9SEvHe6P

— Paul Hembekides (@PaulHembo) April 21, 2023

what are we doing here

Top five of his generation, sure

His career rate stats will probably rank with just about any postwar pitcher when he finishes; obviously, he'll fall well short of Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Seaver, etc. in terms of durability. And then it's just a case of how much you put that down to the way the game has changed; would he have been logging 250-300 IP and 35-40 starts per year if he'd pitched in the '70s? No idea.

Some of his current rankings in career rate stats:

ERA+ - 4th (he's second behind Rivera post-war for unadjusted ERA; first for starters)
H/9 - 3rd
WHIP - 5th
SO/BB - 9th

I really wish he'd stayed healthier. He's at least been healthier than degrom though.

Curious how much will be remembered about his postseason difficulties 20 years from now. It's the kind of thing that does tend to hang around as a footnote--I can still remember that Gil Hodges (before my time) and Dave Winfield all went through something similar.

With the expanded postseason (starting in '95 and continuing until today), postseason stats are more important than ever. Guys are playing far more postseason games than before, and more teams are making it which means no more Ernie Banks situations where they play for bad teams and never get a chance in the postseason. Yeah, let's pour one out for Mike Trout but in general, the best players will all have multiple appearances with meaningful sample sizes.

Kershaw plays for one of the most dominant regular season teams ever, has only one title, and hasn't come close to matching his regular season stats in the postseason. I'm not saying it'll be a stain on his eventual HOF induction, but it'll definitely be remembered for a long time

I love kershaw and am glad he’s recognized as the all-time great that he is, but to consider him the best regular-season pitcher ever (which is distinct from the best per-inning pitcher) seems a little insulting to the guys who were every bit as good and pitched a lot longer

Agree, except that's what I mean about the changing game --would he have matched the Carltons and Madduxes if he'd pitched in their era? Verlander and Scherzer are considered old-school workhorses, and Kershaw isn't too far behind either one of them in career IP.

for sure, he's got a great case for best pitcher of his generation. but I imagine it's going to be kind to one's rate stats to take a few weeks off every couple of months and
rarely face hitters more than twice a game

Assuming Kershaw, Verlander & Scherzer are all of the same generation, I wouldn't rate Kershaw better than the other 2, more like equals.

I hate hypotheticals, but had Kershaw been healthy and not having those numerous IL stints, he may have had a stronger case.

(xpost) Totally agree again, I'm just wondering if that has more to do with him or usage patterns? Is there any evidence he wouldn't have pitched as much as Seaver in the '70s or Maddux in the '90s if he'd been around then? I guess he does seem a little fragile...Quick check: he was in his league's Top 10 for IP five times, but Seaver was Top 10 twelve times and Maddux Top ten seventeen (!) times. So maybe you're right, it has more to do with him.

Kershaw is pretty awesome but I agree w kev and steve and ntbt, which I don't think diminishes CK. Actually think he might be slightly the best of his era but it's not clear cut due to the likes of Verlander and Scherzer, though it's also an era where someone like Scherzer has career CG/shutout numbers which equate to basically what David wells might have done in one season. Everyone has the diminished workload compared to prior decades. But Kershaw also has the injuries and what feels like a bunch of incomplete seasons strung together over the past decade (except for 2015.)

no particular shade on kershaw, but my god verlander's late 30s were incredible

Dodgers, Kershaw announce ‘Christian Faith’ event amid Pride fallout

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/dodgers-kershaw-announce-christian-faith-event-amid-pride-night-controversy/

...

in the spirit of straight pride, international mens day, all lives matter, etc.

I thought this was just fuckawful timing but then I read this and I’m like, fuck him for this, honestly.

Notice he's really turned it around in June. Last four starts:

27 IP, 20 H, 28 K, 7 BB, 1.33 ERA

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers-clayton-kershaw-has-shoulder-surgery-hopes-to-pitch-next-year-1.2030667

Postseason aside--and maybe making amends is what drives him; is it money at this point?--his regular-season body of work is still close to flawless. His career ERA sits at 2.48, all his rate stats are among the best ever, and (if you care) his winning pct. is just shy of .700. I'm a little surprised he doesn't hang it up.

You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end, it turns out that it was the other way around all the time.

It's not just about the money, if it was, he would have pursued (and received) a multi-year deal from someone. He knows he can still compete at a high level. Maybe he really wants to end his career playing in his home state, that's the kind of thing every kid dreams about. But he also wants to win, and the Dodgers have been the best team nearly every year during his career. It's not an easy decisions, and good on him that he's earned the right to end his career on his own terms.

Perfect use of one of my favourite lines ever.