hall of fame, next vote...

King Felix looks like he’s not just going to be returning to the ballot, but he’s received a pretty healthy amount of support. Pedroia is looking safe too.

Utley gaining 9 votes but also losing 5 is weird. Whatever the case I think he’ll eventually get voted in because that peak is pretty undeniable.

Just shy of 25%; could have five guys go in, but Beltran and Jones are pretty iffy.

https://www.bbhoftracker.com/

Glad Torii Hunter finally got a vote--50 WAR, 350 HR, 9 GG. I know he didn't deserve them all, but I wonder how many, say, 300 HR/5 GG-players there are?

It’s still pretty strange to me that Hunter is hanging around on the ballot, Jones is trending towards election, and meanwhile, Jim Edmonds was one and done. I’m pretty sure he was kind of regarded as a prick, but that much of a prick?

it's wild how similar the two are. only thing that tips the scale slightly in favour of Jones, is he surpassed 400 career HR and lead the league in HR and RBI once - which is once more time than Edmonds ever did.

based upon his broadcast skills alone (and i think he's done now, merifully? or getting "promoted" to some off-camera role), he was arrogant, almost always wrong, and couldn't stop talking. he hasn't been made famous for inanely talking over a season highlight yet just because the cardinals have not done well and they finally started decreasing his time on camera last year. however, he was very good at playing baseball, and i hope he gets serious consideration on a committee vote soon

that's right - i'm calling you out, jim edmonds. no one is impressed by who just texted you. you shut up!

Posnanski had a good column today on the players (Edmonds among them) who really got shafted by the mid-2010s glut. This will give you the gist of it:

Here’s a look back at the number of players on every Hall of Fame Ballot this century with a 65-plus WAR.

2020s

2025: 3
2024: 4
2023: 4
2022: 6
2021: 5
2020: 7

2010s

2019: 8
2018: 10
2017: 10
2016: 10
2015: 13
2014: 14
2013: 11
2012: 7
2011: 10
2010: 7

2000s

2009: 5
2008: 4
2007: 5
2006: 3
2005: 5
2004: 5
2003: 6
2002: 6
2001: 4
2000: 4

...This is why I truly believe that a handful of players who first appeared on the ballot from 2013 to 2018 should get a redo. And by this I mean they should be put back on the BBWAA ballot--I just don’t think that veterans committees are set up to reevaluate their careers.

He goes on to single out four players: Lofton, Edmonds, Posada, and Johan Santana.

I would agree on those guys. I think it's a shame that the voters would favor lesser pitchers like Pettitte over Santana, just because the former remained healthy and pretty decent over a longer period of time, vs the latter being a supernova talent for a shorter period.

It's good to see that Pedroia, Hernandez, and Wright will be sticking around, and that Jones and Beltran are getting closer to election. I increasingly think Pedroia really is a HOF guy akin to a Santana or, as I said before, Posey.

K-Rod picked up several votes bc voters treat saves like home runs, idk.

Pedroia's case is really similar to Posey's -- won an MVP, multiple WS titles, was perceived as a leader playing a key defensive position, but had a short career (albeit for different reasons). If Posey is a consensus pick for a lot of people, then Pedroia should be too.

At his peak, Santana was as dominant as just about any inner circle HOF pitcher. My gut tells me he should be in.

Looks like Beltran really might get in: 140 ballots in, 38%, and he's climbed to 79%, picking up a net 18 votes.

If he does, very good news for Altuve down the road, I would think.

Subtract 5% for post-announcement votes typically so i think next year

i'm glad the guys who are likely sticking around will be there next year. it'll be interesting to see how some of them fare on the next several ballots, when it'll just be Pujols + Molina and Posey coming up. Beltran and Jones will get in, I'm sure, but I think you'll see a major push for Utley. You'll see lots of arguments for Pedroia, Felix, and maybe Wright as well, as writers correctly note the argument for peak performers vs compilers.

sometimes i lull myself to sleep when needed by going through baseball stats in my head. lately, i've been going down the list of teams in my head and thinking, "who's a future HOFer on this team?" I've determined that Altuve is "very likely". to the Blue Jays fans, sorry but this usually works so well that I fall asleep in the middle of considering Vlad Jr's case.

I could see Vlad ending up with ~60 WAR for his career but not coming close to the HOF because he never lived up to inflated early expectations or to his 2021 season (last year was close). I'm as guilty as anyone of having slipped into this mindset in how I view him. He'll hang around for the duration on the ballot but never crack 50%.

maybe the most comparable case at this point would be someone like Bryce Harper, who is a guy we might find a mild disappointment since maybe we figured he'd have a Mike Trout-like run, vs his more sporadic superstar-level seasons. but he's gonna go to the HOF anyway. if we figure Vlad's got another dozen seasons left with another half dozen or a bit more at a potential peak, he might be able to pull it off.

Possible. My own sense is that there's a clear gap between Harper and Guerrero (2 MVPs vs. none, perceived as a great postseason player vs. no postseason resume). Vlad's running about six games behind Harper in WAR at the same stage of their careers. This is also where Harper went to Philly, though, and reset his career.

The inflated expectations thing, though, yeah, Harper was dogged by that for a few seasons too. I used to compare Harper to Fred Lynn...maybe Vlad to Lynn is the better comparison now.

@clem: Maybe he can get traded to the Sacramento Athletics so he can play half his games in a minor league bandbox like he did in 2021?

nevermind bandbox it's going to be so fucking hot that it'll be a launchpad

i think obv Vlad would have won MVP if it wasn't for Shohei, which is one point in his favor (it would have occurred the same age-year Bryce won his first MVP) and there's still time to make up for all of that. Vlad after six seasons compares pretty favorably to Bryce after six (in fact their bWAR per 162 is the exact same over that period.) i think this season is going to be the real tell in terms of how his career might play out.

(xxpost) For sure: you alerting me to the splits for his 2021 season really changed my view of him. Guessing 2024 was a pretty good apporoximation of what 2021 would have looked like minus the two bandboxes.

Beltran is now at 80.1% w/an estimated 42.3% of the ballots accounted for on the tracker. based on last year's result, I'm guessing he winds up a few points shy of induction but seems set for 2026. the only player who's lost ground this year (non-PED division) is Hunter.

The people who haven't revealed their ballots, have they already met a voting deadline (i.e., their ballots have already been submitted)? Beltran's ssurprise showing couldn't still generate further support, could it?

xps fwiw sacramento is actually a pitchers' park: https://archive.is/0Fz7L

xp the deadline was Dec 31 so that ship has sailed

Didn't realize that...So yeah, as someone else speculated, next year.

For me, more surprising than Ichiro's 100% is CC's 93%. HOF'er, yes, I just never guessed he'd climb that high. I could make a pretty long list of players who I think we'd all agree were better and went in with less than 90% and not in their first year of eligibility. (He'll probably drop below 90 in the end.)

Which, in the end, is probably a good thing. If you're a HOF'er, you're a HOF'er--why wait?

Where they stand going into tomorrow's announcement (180 votes, 48.7%):

Ichiro Suzuki - 100.0%
CC Sabathia - 92.1%
Billy Wagner - 84.8%
Carlos Beltrán - 80.6%
Andruw Jones - 72.3%

So Beltran would have to drop to 70% of the unannounced voters--gonna be close.

https://www.bbhoftracker.com/

(I.e., to fall short.)

I’m trying to assess his chances by looking to see how many votes he’s gained versus how many votes he missed by a year ago. It’s not an exact science, but I figure he’ll probably wind up somewhere between 69% and 71%.

Understanding, of course, that it’s not the same number of voters every year and the pool changes just a bit.

Just looking at Posnanski's post today, and I don't think I realized how phenomenally close Sabathia and Pettitte are:

Sabathia: 251-161, 3.74 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 61.8 bWAR, 66.5 fWAR
Pettitte: 256-154, 3.85 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 60.7 bWAR, 68.2 fWAR

Holy cow...so how do you explain the 60% difference in support? Posanaski says it's the PED taint (I didn't think Pettitte was all that damaged by that) and timing as to when Pettitte came onto the ballot.

I do think Sabathia had a much more dominant peak and Pettitte just had three scattered HOF caliber seasons mixed in with a lot of Jamie Moyer type years. the fact that one of those HOF caliber seasons coincided with then-teammate Clemens' late-era dominant year might be a problem, yeah...probably not something to completely ignore if you're on the fence about him.

i also think it's pretty remarkable that you've had a slew of dominant pitchers from the mid 80s through the mid 00s who received almost zero support and Pettitte just sticks around.

Pettitte also has the impressive post-season résumé, though--his ERA's on the high side, but still sub-4.00 during the PED decade. He basically pitched a full season in October:

19-11, 3.81, 276.2 IP

https://i.imgur.com/MsfcCPL.png

Petitte had only one below-average season, by FIP, and generally out-performed Sabathia's all through his 30s (and into his 40s - i kind of forgot about his comeback season and how it was pretty excellent)

Ichiro, CC, and Wagner

Ichiro didn't get 100%, missed by one

I assume "unanimous" would have been attached to Ichiro's announcement if true (i.e., it wasn't)?

Got it.

Buffoon, identify yourself.

Person who didn’t vote for Ichiro about to be Japanese baseball fans’ least favourite person.

(Ippei - phew!)

Tayler Saucedo, who is a relief pitcher from the Mariners who grew up in Seattle, posted this earlier today.

I think one of the coolest things of being a Mariner is that I went from thinking Ichiro was larger than life and imitating his batting stance/swing in the backyard to one day I blinked and woke up to moments like this 😂 (I was perfectly fine) Now we all get to watch this man… https://t.co/3mVwdmnJkc pic.twitter.com/kXoFon849I

— Tayler Saucedo (@tsauce7) January 21, 2025

It’s not an exact science, but I figure he’ll probably wind up somewhere between 69% and 71%.

70.3%--don't be modest!

For 80 or 90 years, there was a reason for not voting anyone in unanimously. It was a ridiculous, stupid reason, but it was a reason: if no one from the first class was unanimous (Ruth, especially), no one should be. Rivera's unanimous election ended that.

During the PED glut, there was a reason for not voting anyone in unanimously--strategic voting. I don't think I'd engage in that myself, but it was a reason--defensible, even.

Bonds, Clemens, etc., there was a reason. You can agree or disagree, but it's not mysterious.

With Ichiro (and Jeter too), there is no reason--none whatsoever, that I can see.

I know it's a small thing, and I'll forget about it tomorrow, it's just stupid.

my first time following the process, i didn’t know they made the votes public on a rolling basis. should be a closed ballot then i bet you’d see more unaninmous selections… too easy for somebody to wait until the last minute and vote based on what they see

Omar said the deadline is Dec. 31, and I don't think voters start going public until after that.