hall of fame, next vote...

Carlos González
Curtis Granderson
Félix Hernández
Adam Jones
Ian Kinsler
Russell Martin
Brian McCann
Dustin Pedroia
Hanley Ramírez
Fernando Rodney
CC Sabathia
Ichiro Suzuki
Troy Tulowitzki
Ben Zobrist

New ^

Will be curious if Ichiro gets 100%. Probably not. Otherwise, it's CC and Felix who'll be the ones to watch. CC will go in, though maybe not first ballot; Felix, I don't know. I'll be personally paying a visit to each and every writer who votes for Troy "I'd much rather be in Colorado, I just want to be clear" Tulowitzki.

Closer look, and Felix is a no. Great peak, right on track till he's 30, but that's basically it.

For carry-overs, Wagner should be a cinch (73.8% last time), but this is his last shot. Andruw is at ~60% with two years to go.

without looking, i would have though King Felix would have had a better shot and never really though of CC as a HoFer, but he def has a better case

CC was a much better pitcher for sure

i'm sure CC will get in -- 3093 strikeouts is a lot -- but honestly he's kinda marginal stats-wise

his run with the brewers in 2008 was incredible tho, and i appreciate that

This is a really interesting crop of first ballot players. Obviously Ichiro is a no-brainer, but at least half of them had legitimate 4-5 year HOF peaks. Pedroia would have cleared the bar easily if he hadn't gotten injured. CC wasn't an elite pitcher after his age 31 season and was a compiler after that, but a lot of people argue for Andy Pettitte and he was far, far better than Pettitte with similar career numbers. Felix was unquestionably a HOFer in his 20's and then fell off a cliff, but so did Andruw Jones and he's probably going to get in soon.

he was far, far better than Pettitte with similar career numbers

Far better at his peak, that is.

Ian Kinsler is a guy who might not deserve to make the Hall of Fame but when you look at his career, playing 14 seasons and putting up 4.6 bWAR per 162 games is pretty impressive.

Pedroia was even better obv, i’m a bit more pro when it comes to his case, he had a great career that was cut short by injury, I think one could argue he belongs in based on what he accomplished, kind of like Kirby Puckett.

Sabathia is a weird case, I don’t actually think he’s that much better than Andy Pettitte, I think they both wind up in the realm of guys who had very good careers with several Hall-worthy seasons apiece.

in within first few years: Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia

catchers who will have to wait a while: Russell Martin, Brian McCann

hall of famers who were destroyed by injuries in their 30s: Felix Hernández, Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki

King Felix might make it anyway

for the catchers a lot depends on what you think about catching stats and "value" and all that shit

God help me RM seemed HOF worthy to me at the time whereas McCann the Tiger did not

Closer look, and Felix is a no. Great peak, right on track till he's 30, but that's basically it.

― clemenza, Monday, November 18, 2024 2:03 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

consider that he threw a PG on my birthday and i was having a shitty day working late but my friend warned me and i got to watch the last couple innings on my second screen. work this into your HOF analysis please

I’m sure all these guys will get in via some eras committee down the road

(xpost) Have added a WMA to my rigid HOF screening process.

Tracker up and running with six votes:

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF%2169204&authkey=!ACe58mCXDocB0Ls

We can maybe infer that CC's going in (6/6), Felix isn't (0/6), and Andruw might (3/6).

Pedroia is like so many good second basemen where their career falls off a cliff at age 32-33.

Pedroia is like so many good second basemen where their career falls off a cliff at age 32-33.

Injuries? That's what I remember.

Also: Wagner at 5 and Beltran at 3

Relevant to the HOF...Posnanski has a long thing up today on "fine starts"--Game Score of 58+; obviously needs a better name--as a replacement for wins. He starts from the fact that Tommy John had 288 wins and 288 fine starts. A couple of lists.

Leaders, post-deadball:

1. Nolan Ryan, 452
2. Roger Clemens, 410
3. Don Sutton, 389
4. Steve Carlton, 385
5. Gaylord Perry, 381
6. Tom Seaver, 379
7. Greg Maddux, 377
8. Warren Spahn, 368
9. Phil Niekro, 354
10. Randy Johnson, 353

Where it really helps is with starters this century. Active and recently retired leaders:

1. Clayton Kershaw, 277
2. Max Scherzer, 273
3. Zack Greinke, 265
4. CC Sabathia, 240
5. King Félix Hernández, 216
6. Gerrit Cole, 190
7. Chris Sale, 184
8. Jacob deGrom, 155

Highest Career Fine-Start Percentage (minimum 200 starts)

1. Jacob deGrom, 71.1%
2. Clayton Kershaw, 64.6%
3. Chris Sale, 63.0%
4. Pedro Martinez, 61.9%
5. Sandy Koufax, 61.8%

Mark Buehrle remains a kind of interesting case especially if we're lining him up next to CC, who has 37 more wins but played for longer.

162 game average on BBR --

Buehrle is at 14-11, 4.0 bWAR, 221 IP, 126 K (3.81 career ERA)

CC is 15-10, 3.7 bWAR, 217 IP, 188 K. (3.74 career ERA)

both average out at 2 CG and 1 SHO.

fangraphs does give more of an edge to CC in terms of WAR, but it's interesting anyway.

Andy Pettitte is probably a better comp to Buehrle than CC, but interesting how close they all are in some ways. and all better than Jack Morris obv.

I think Morris would be a useful test case for the fine-starts concept; I bet he comes in lower than his win total for his career. (Started to count them myself, but didn't get past 1978--incomplete Game Score information back then, too lazy to start doing that myself.)

CC and Ichiro were both at 100% for a dozen ballots, but now CC is 12/13. Bruce Jenkins voted for Ichiro, Vizquel, Manny, and A-Rod.

it's cobra time

Wow--surprised they'd go for Parker over Tiant. But I get it; they've made that mistake time and again, passing over a player who's still alive.

Jesus, Tiant didn't even get five votes.

Long Soto post yesterday from Posnanski yesterday, long HOF post today. The HOF post is all over the place, of course: "I'm happy, but..." Happy for Parker, but Dwight Evans. Happy for Allen, but he's gone. Etc. And he think it's time to remove Tiant permanently--not because he's not deserving, Posnanski's a big advocate, but because he's been on ballots 20 times now and never drawn any support, and at a certain point, enough.

Yesterday--did I make that clear? (Posting while with a difficult grade 5 class.)

Jay Jaffe writes that Russell Martin's pitch framing was worth > 20 wins during his career, making him a clear HOFer:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2025-hall-of-fame-ballot-russell-martin/

I am definitely open to these new metrics for evaluating catchers.

I'm always open to new stats, but in that specific case, I have a hard time seeing Martin as a HOF'er. (Haven't read the piece yet.) I just don't think he hit enough. Baseball's 50% offense, and the other 50%, the run prevention part, I don't know--30-35% pitching, 15-20% defense? I'm sure Martin is as much or more of a HOF'er as Bill Mazeroski, but I don't think Mazeroski should be in the HOF either.

agreed. i don't doubt his pitch framing was very good, but was he "famous" for it? no one went to a game to see the guy frame pitches, and outside of analysts and stat-heads, i don't think his skills were really all that revered. maybe if he was a borderline case, i could see that pushing him over; but as you said, his bat just wasn't good enough to get him close.

the argument for him might be strengthened if you compare him to Yadier Molina, he was a better hitter than him and maybe the pitch-framing brings him closer to him behind the plate. fwiw BBR has Martin at 38.9 career WAR/3.7 per 162, Yady at 42.1/3.1 per 162. On Fangraphs they're basically equal in WAR, 54.5 and 55.6 respectively, but Martin played in 533 fewer games and a couple thousand fewer plate appearances. however I'm also agnostic on Yady, who seems like a guy who is more a vibes HOFer than an actual HOFer.

If we’re talking vibes i always thought martin was cool. Yadi was cool too (admitted under protest) but martin’s whole thing for me was “this is an elite athlete! A catcher who dicks around at shortstop for kicks,” whereas yadi was more of a bulldog. They do different things. Im a big hall guy tho so

Baseball's 50% offense, and the other 50%, the run prevention part, I don't know--30-35% pitching, 15-20% defense?

Yes, that's baseball as a whole. But if we look at individual positions? For a non-premium defensive position such as 1B, it's probably 95% hitting, 5% defense. It's always great if someone can add more on defense, but realistically that's what you're looking for from a first baseman.

But a catcher? Maybe it's 40% hitting, 30% defense, 30% in-game management (incl. pitch calling, directing the defense, controlling the running game, pitch framing, probably 50 other things ...). You could argue for a different breakdown, but the point is that for everything besides hitting, we don't really know how to evaluate catchers.

For instance, check this post and link from five years ago on this thread about Yadi.

I don't have a good feel for catchers who are on the fence. Bench and Piazza and I-Rod are easy. Martin and Molina for me are like Jim Sundberg, who I have a hard time thinking of as a HOF'er. But they're all bunched together on the bWAR catcher list. Which doesn't factor in pitch framing, I take it. If Salvador Perez can have two or three more seasons like his 2024, I like him better--but he doesn't do especially well with WAR.

Weirdly enough, Martin's most famous defensive moment was the throw back to the mound that almost cost the Jays the bat-flip game. (Nothing I'd factor in, obviously, just a strange footnote.)

big thing in my mind with Martin vs Molina, is the World Series(s) and the fact Molina was on one team his entire career. not that being on one team making a difference in talent - but it def helps his "fame-yness" factor a lot when he was the constant over 19 years, 13 playoff runs, 4 world series and 2 rings.

also career playoff slash line...
Molina: 104 G, .273/.326/.357/.682
Martin: 54 G, .191/.306/.327/.633 and hitting a bat with a throwback that lead to one of the wildest chain of events i've ever seen in the playoffs

Jaffe makes the case that Martin was valuable because he moved around and his teams won when he arrived. The Pirates and Jays broke 20-year playoff droughts when he signed with them.

Baseball's 50% offense, and the other 50%, the run prevention part, I don't know--30-35% pitching, 15-20% defense?

don’t agree with this framing (no pun intended). baseball is 100% scoring more runs than the other team. that said I just don’t know if I trust the framing numbers

I think the basic 50/50 split is rock solid: 50% scoring runs, 50% preventing runs. That's how you score more runs than the other team.

Sabathia looks pretty certain now, I'm cool with it.

it's kind of a joke how well Vizquel and Rollins are doing vs Pedroia, Abreu, Kinsler...I'm still not saying Kinsler was a HOFer but he was probably several more peak seasons away from being a Lou Whitaker-type case. The more I think about Pedroia the more I kinda think he belongs, maybe less in a Puckett way like I said previously but more in a Posey way. Abreu seems like a guy who will stick around the full ten years and maybe get some Vet committee love down the road.

Meaningless, but I'm interested in whether or not Ichiro is unanimous. Strategic voting during the logjam a decade ago isn't a credible explanation anymore for not voting for someone.

perspectives of yore:

https://sabr.org/journal/article/is-pitching-75-of-baseball-expert-opinions/

This article was written by James K. Skipper Jr.

This article was published in 1980 Baseball Research Journal

weird to note that Pettitte and Buehrle have picked up 4 and 3 votes apiece at this point in the voting (just under 10% of the ballots are in the tracker.) I'm guessing it might have a bit to do with voters taking a look at them lined up next to Sabathia and thinking they weren't so far off in a lot of respects.

Utley has picked up 2 votes but lost 3, which is weird.

About 1/8 of the way through:

https://www.bbhoftracker.com/

There sure are some good players in that zero-votes group.