hall of fame, next vote...

Actually just ordered Dan Epstein's book on Ron Blomberg and Munson a few days ago.

Anyway, outside of personalities (think I posted about this when Posey retired):

Posey - ROY, MVP (1.63 MVP share), 3 WS, 1 GG, 5,607 PA, 44.8 bWAR (5.3/162 games)
Munson - ROY, MVP (1.50 MVP share), 2 WS 3 GG, 5,344 PA, 46.1 bWAR (5.2/162 games)

Posey was the better hitter, for sure.

an unpleasant redass on a high-priced team of psychos

I would watch this miniseries

You're in luck: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bronx_Is_Burning.

Well shit! 7.8 on IMDB!

I've seen it. It held my attention (had already read the book), but as I remember it, some laughable performances in there.

Some FB thing, easy to cut and paste:

https://i.postimg.cc/DzPxhCnW/hof.jpg

Obviously they're too cautious re "could retire today"--you could add another five from the "probably" group--and some from their bottom group could be moved up. Don't think I'd put any closer above "there's a chance" at this point.

Not looking fwd to janssen and kimbrel discourse

Also yelich is a hard no way. Hes not there in peak, war total or jaws qnd dont see him moving that needle

Also a PED issue, no?

N ur thinking of braun

I’d put Trea Turner ahead of Clase or Yelich in terms of HoF odds

(xpost) Right...If Yelich were in the middle of a five-season run where he was playing at an AS level, I'd say he's in decent position, but that's not the shape of his career.

i would kinda also think that kimbrel is shooting his own dick off by continuing to play but this line just sucks to look at regardless

Career WAR | 19.4 7yr-peak WAR | 21.4 JAWS | 20.2 R-JAWS | 1.9 WAR/162

Average HOF RP (out of 8):

39.1 career WAR | 26.0 7yr-peak WAR | 32.5 JAWS | 29.7 R-JAWS | 2.5 WAR/162

Kenley is not better.

22.2 career WAR | 16.0 7yr-peak WAR | 19.1 JAWS | 22.7 R-JAWS | 1.7 WAR/162

Average HOF RP (out of 8):

39.1 career WAR | 26.0 7yr-peak WAR | 32.5 JAWS | 29.7 R-JAWS | 2.5 WAR/162

Not looking fwd to janssen and kimbrel discourse

― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, August 30, 2024 1:29 PM (four hours ago)

I'm going to enlist Dana Bash to grill you on this flagrant flip-flop.

Kimbrel has been a plain bad closer since 2018, one half season with the Cubs notwithstanding. Kenley just doesn't really rise to some level that transcends being a closer, either. their value overall is so much less than, idk, Jason Heyward.

Definitely move to "it's gonna be close": Ramirez, Soto, Alvarez, Lindor. (And if you wanted to argue for "probably," I wouldn't disagree.)

yeah soto just seems like the kind of guy who will be putting up 5-7 WAR seasons for the next 10 years

Tbf, that average hall of fame RP WAR is probably inflated a little because Hoyt and Eck were starters for a while. I’d think if you just took their years as actual relievers, the avg career war would be under 30

Not having a great year, but I realize that one obvious omission from the "Too Early" group is Xander Bogaerts. No fewer than six HOF'ers on his Similarity Score list through age 30, and at 40.5 bWAR, he's ahead of Bregman and Seager and other guys who are younger. Five Silver Sluggers, MVP support in five seasons. He has to turn it around next season, and he's got a ways to go, but he's in just as good a position as some of the players listed there.

Kimbrel has been a plain bad closer since 2018, one half season with the Cubs notwithstanding

:|

Having to do with an incorrect Immaculate Grid answer today--6.0+ WAR season with the Orioles--I looked up Ken Singleton's career box. What a solid hitter: 132 career OPS+, oWAR just under 50. But never a 6.0 season because his defensive numbers on BRef are very poor. I was thinking that if you took his career -17.3 dWAR and made it positive--if he'd been a really good defender to go along with all the offense--he'd be in the same spot as Jim Edmonds, a viable candidate with ~ 65 WAR who may yet get in via the VC one day.

Which you could probably say about numerous players, I'm sure.

also a better broadcaster than michael kay (a low bar, i know)

Plus he'd have all his broadcasting credentials. Plus Bill James' wife picked him as the handsomest player of the '70s.

!

Susan James has a great deal of sway with who does and doesn't get into the HOF.

led the league in damn! shares

Idc about the HoF but I know most of you do and so:

As I believe was reported over the weekend, Luis Tiant will officially appear on the Baseball Hall of Fame’s Classic Era ballot.

Full ballot includes: Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Steve Garvey, Vic Harris, Tommy John, Dave Parker and Tiant.

As I believe was reported over the weekend, Luis Tiant will officially appear on the Baseball Hall of Fame’s Classic Era ballot.

Full ballot includes: Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Steve Garvey, Vic Harris, Tommy John, Dave Parker and Tiant.

— Mac Cerullo (@MacCerullo) November 4, 2024

Josh Donaldson got on there rather quick

whoo boy is dyslexia fun sometimes

Allen, Tiant, and Tommy John should 100% go in, and I think they will. There's a case for Parker, but iffier on him.

Took a look at Parker's career box. His peak window is so brief: '75-79, with a power outage in '76. He had some good bulk-number seasons in the '80s, and was runner-up for the '85 NL MVP--he shouldn't have been--but that was his only season for the entire decade with a bWAR over 2.0. His career numbers are somewhat comparable to Rice's, but Rice was of course a borderline pick himself, and Parker's numbers fall a little short of even that.

Not sure why Lou Whitaker or Dwight Evans weren't on there...maybe you have to wait a cycle or two after not being voted in, I don't know.

stats-wise, parker doesn't really belong (although there are, of course HOFers who belong even less). but in his favor i would submit:

- subject of two of the best photos of baseball players ever
- 'the cobra' is a hall-of-fame nickname
- that throw in the all-star game
- on why he wore a star of david necklace: 'because i'm a david and i'm a star'
- i honestly feel like 'fame' should be part of the equation
- a+ surname
- it would make me happy

anyway dick allen should be a gimme

I said there was a case, and you made it well. He might also have sentiment on his side because of his Parkinson's--if he got voted in, I wouldn't expect to hear many complaints (except maybe to bring up other deserving players not in).

And hey, retired as a Jay.

thank you for agreeing that it would make me happy is a good argument <3

https://baseballcard.art/cdn/shop/products/Dave-Parker.jpg?v=1607630127&width=1445

being cool should def matter a little bit but the floor should probably be somewhere closer to like, david ortiz

fair

Luis Tiant, very cool. Dick Allen had the great Sports Illustrated juggling-and-smoking cover. Tommy John...most uncool from what I remember.

https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/the-legend-of-el-tiante-9223

Posnanski: "I kind of thought we were done with Garvey as a Hall of Fame candidate. This will be his TWENTIETH Hall of Fame ballot, and he has never received even 50% of the vote. I happen to know there are a couple of big Garvey boosters with a lot of sway who keep pushing his case, and I get it. Garvey was a fine player. He did a lot of things that we appreciated in the 1970s—played every day, knocked 200 hits annually, drove in 100 runs a bunch, had some postseason moments, appeared regularly on a variety of daytime game shows. But, at some point, you have to say: The Garvey vote has been taken. Let’s give somebody else a chance."

The often overlooked game-show factor.

Well, at least Garvey got trounced last night.

Good Posnanski piece today on how badly overlooked Chet Lemon has been by the Hall of Fame (1 vote the year he came up on the writer's ballot). Short version:

1) Dave Parker - 40.1 career bWAR
Chet Lemon - 55.7 career bWAR

2) "...there have been THREE centerfielders in baseball history with 90 or more fielding runs and a 120 OPS+. Two are gimmes:

Willie Mays, 185 fielding runs, 155 OPS+
Tris Speaker, 92 fielding runs, 158 OPS+

And the third you already know, but let me just say it’s not Andruw Jones (111 OPS+), and it’s not Kenny Lofton (107 OPS+), and it’s not Garry Maddox (101 OPS+), and it’s not Mickey Mantle (minus-37 fielding runs), and it’s not Duke Snider (minus-22 fielding runs), and it’s not Carlos Beltran (doesn’t qualify on either count).

Nope. It’s Chet Lemon."

never having seen him play - was he a flashy centerfielder or more of a position / ball-route expert that tends to perform under people's radars (especially back then)?

I wasn’t aware he was doing so poorly health wise

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/columnists/jeff-seidel/2024/08/29/chet-lemon-detroit-tigers-1984-team/74851096007/

I saw him during his Tigers heyday, but I'd be lying if I said I remember much--he was an integral part of the '84 team, along with Trammell/Whitaker/Gibson.

I don't even know that Posnanski's arguing Lemon should be in the HOF; he got so little attention in his day (as opposed to Parker, say), that it'd be kind of weird--especially when someone like Dwight Evans isn't in, who did have some measure of fame. But I'm glad he brought some awareness to what a good player he was.

Chet Lemon was memorable to me primarily as a guy who had a great name and was obviously a good player, but fame-wise as a casual fan he was as famous to me as Lloyd Moseby or Cecil Cooper or Tony Armas.

I really don’t know why Dwight Evans hasn’t come closer to making it, I feel like they reward pitchers with mustaches, but penalize hitters with any facial hair. It’s the only other explanation I have for Munson and Grich.