aaron judge needs his own thread

third slash is slugging

that’s “days” not games and via fangraphs as of when I posted it

Oops, wrong--you're doing BA/OBP/SLG, of course.

is Aaron Judge possibly...underrated?

He's very scrappy, so yes.

sometimes he plays like if Edgar Martinez accidentally teleported into Richie Sexson's body

Was looking at some things he might accomplish this year, and one of them would be the highest single-season OPS+ by a 20th-century MLB player not named Bonds, Williams, or Ruth. Hornsby (222), Mantle (221), and Gehrig (220) are all bunched together; Judge is at 220. A real longshot to keep this up.

The really interesting thing I noticed, though--bREF's list of course includes 19th-century players and Negro Leaguers--is that Lyman Bostock is on the list for 229 in 1941, his age-23 season. Yes, as you might guess: the other Lyman Bostock's father, who would outlive his son by almost 30 years.

(21st-century, too.)

https://i.postimg.cc/tJvJtBnk/judge.jpg

Harry Heilmann!

Surprised by the absence of Williams, which probably speaks to his consistency.

I think I internally assume he'll cool off and don't check in on him for a few days, but clearly he hasn't. Right now, he has his highest BA, OBP, and SLG ever, and he's headed for another 60 HR and 150 RBI.

On June 18, I posted that graphic above on the hottest streaks ever. Here's what he's done from June 18 to yesterday: 37 AB, 5 HR, 18 RBI, .432/.523/.865.

mark my words: this kid is going places.

the kind of streak that the all star break will cool down?

As phenomenal a season as he's having, I came across mention of a Triple Crown yesterday, which was a little bizarre--he's 50 points behind Steven Kwan in BA.

It’s also barely halfway through the season. I blame MLB & various social accounts for constantly pushing “Cy Young/MVP watch” this early in the season.

As the biggest gun-jumper on this board, I must sit this one out. (But even I can see Judge is not winning a TC.)

replace BA with SLG and he'd probably get it though - it's him, big drop, then Ohtani, another big drop, then everyone else

I don't know if this ever went anywhere, but there is ineed a sabermetric TC.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/9/27/2450607/the-saber-triple-crown

Ohtani probably has a better chance this year tbh

Judge has a decent lead over Ohtani in all three right now; I think the bigger problem would be Judge or anybody beating Soto in OBP.

kwan doesn’t qualify for the batting title as of now…I would also wager his BA will fall to earth a bit

Forgot he didn't have enough AB. On the second point, agree, but 50 points is a lot--he'd need to go into free-fall, and Judge would have to hold steady.

I blame MLB & various social accounts for constantly pushing “Cy Young/MVP watch” this early in the season.

Let me dive in! Soto looked like a cinch MVP early on; clearly Judge has surpassed him, but I wouldn't altogether rule Soto out yet. If Judge were to get hurt, or have a poor month, Soto's waiting in the wings.

injury aside, Judge has it in the bag. I don't see him having a month poor enough to allow Soto to catch up. his level of production has been so consistent across his career, I feel pretty safe in saying that he's solved AL pitching and they don't have much to counter him. I think the biggest tell for me about Judge this season is he's leading the AL in doubles too, only five off his career high. he's got 56 xbh already.

Both things would have to be true: injury time plus a really bad month. But you're probably right. Which would leave him with two MVPS and a third he didn't win but many people felt he should have in 2017. (I thought Altuve was a good pick.) Which, if there was any lingering doubt already, is one foot in the HOF.

The only argument I can see anyone making against his candidacy even at this point is the fact that, barring injury, this would wind up being only his fourth full season, so some of the traditional counting stats are slightly lacking. But he is in the inner circle of the Hall of Fame as a peak performer, and he's firmly the best 60 HR guy not named Ruth or Bonds.

he’s probably going to have a short career, but from memory, I think every multiple MVP winner, apart from the steroid guys, are in the hall. he’s on track to crack the top 20 in RF JAWS by the end of this season, and assuming he has another 3 years at 5-7 wins each, that already puts him in the top 10. (doubt he’ll catch betts though)

I know there are double Cy Young winners not in the HOF, and I think there might be a couple of double MVPs not in there too--have to check.

You could argue that Juan Gonzalez is an exception, although he was quite probably juiced too.

Dale Murphy comes to mind

to show my work:
- another 4 WAR this year
- conservative estimate of average of 5 WAR the next 3 years
- average of 1.5 WAR the 4 years after that, to the end of his contract

brings him to 72.7 WAR for his career and about 63 JAWS — firmly in the top 10, shoulder to shoulder (or shoulder to forehead) with al kaline, betts, and reggie jackson

I really believe that he's the type of guy who could have another three or four seasons after this at a similar level of dominance, followed by a more normal level of high level hitting. Like your average "David Ortiz in the final stretch" kinda year.

Chances probably better once they work out a way to get Stanton off the roster and free up that DH spot but until then he’s an injury risk

unrelated, but that reminds me of something I think about frequently which is how funny it is that baseball players get injured. these guys are insanely jacked, play a non-contact sport where you might touch another player 20 times over the course of a season, do a pretty good amount of standing around — but run a weird way down the first base line one time or swing too hard and you might be out for 3 weeks. there’s got to be a good article out there about injury trends and all that

Most of them aren’t insanely jacket but the ones that are are usually the guys who get injured all the time. Stanton, Tyler O’Neill both walking hospital frequenters. Maybe only Yandy Diaz is the rare hench position player that’s usually healthy.

Jacked

Yoked

Swole

Timely

My twin brother and myself at 60 years old pic.twitter.com/BjKYI5WsE7

— Jose Canseco (@JoseCanseco) July 3, 2024

As Posnanski points out, absurd:

Mantle and Maris, or Judge and Soto?

— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) July 23, 2024

(James also suggested to his readers they were getting this one wrong.)

Whether you pair Mantle with Judge or Soto, that's competitive. Whether you pair Maris with Judge or Soto, that's lopsided.

Jesus

Running slightly ahead of his 2022 pace in all three slash categories, OPS+, and bWAR. Pretty clearly the best player in the game with Betts out and Ohtani not pitching.

he's better than betts when both are healthy

Pretty much dead even on BRef: Judge, 8.4/162 games; Betts, 8.3/162. Judge is a full game ahead on Fangraphs, though, 8.2 to 7.1.

i’ll take mookie’s defense

judge is a playable center fielder with that bat, defense isn't important enough to make up a 70 point difference in wrc+

Aaron Judge could just stand in the outfield doing nothing at all and his bat would still make up for it.

I am now actually curious on how bad his defence would have to be in order for it to cancel out his hitting value. He’d have to start throwing every second put out over the fence and slide kick the left fielder whenever they got too close.

A lot more flexibility with Mookie, obviously--not sure how that factors in.

Aaron Judge could just stand in the outfield doing nothing at all and his bat would still make up for it.

― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, July 30, 2024 11:36 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

on fg, he’s +62 runs on offense and -6 runs on defense, so he’d have to be about 10x worse on defense just to be average (iirc those numbers are above average, not replacement). and as I said a couple of weeks ago on the saber thread, I have my doubts about his defensive numbers