MLB 2023 Postseason Thread

AZ-TX both received 0 votes in this poll so they deserve it the most

Order has been restored with the Braves and Dodgers back to dominating the regular season and flopping in the playoffs.

Misery loves company (I do)

rooting for a rematch PHI over HOU

Four 100-win teams in MLB this year (I'm including the 99-win Rays), and none of them even advanced to the LCS.

Maybe this is the new norm -- last year three out of the four 100-win teams didn't advance to the LCS.

The advancing teams this year have gone 20-2 (six series sweeps and two four-game best of fives) but it still feels like there's been a lot of exciting baseball. Maybe because of all the upsets?

Bye week throws you off your game, negating any benefit from pitcher rest. Manfred just needs to add a few expansion teams for those sweet sweet franchise fees, split each league into four divisions and have a wild card for each and no byes.

Or a soccer style group stage feeding directly into the championship series, the two best records get to stay at home for the entire group stage.

make the #1 seed choose who it wants to play in the division series, giving us an entire week of harper/arcia-style 'they disrespected us' palaver x 2

I don't think it is because of the bye week, it's a long season (and postseason) and getting rest is important.

Maybe this is a topic for the intangibles thread, but teams like Texas and Arizona were playing important games all through September, fighting for their playoff lives. Whereas LA and Atlanta had their division locked up weeks ago, and weren't able to pivot and turn it on in October (whatever "it" is).

I think it’s a good topic for this thread.

So here’s our question — and his: Why are we so obsessed with who’s not still playing in the postseason when there’s such an obvious reason that teams like Realmuto’s October behemoths, the Phillies, are still playing?

And that reason goes like this:

Surely, you must have noticed by now that October baseball is practically a whole different sport than April-to-September baseball.

So here’s an idea: Maybe we should stop looking for excuses for the teams that are heading home. Instead, let’s take a closer look at why teams such as the Phillies — and their partners in World Series crime last fall, the Astros — keep finding ways to survive and advance.

Surely, you must have noticed by now that October baseball is practically a whole different sport than April-to-September baseball.

I think this is absolutely wrong and I think there's no reason beyond luck that sometimes a good team sweeps a series against a great team. That happens in May and it happens in October. Same sport.

In the case of Baltimore in particular, you could see the offense losing steam towards the end of the season, and it was very concerning that Hyde was going through the relief at such a clip. And I do think that lack of playoff experience truly was a factor.

In the case of Baltimore in particular, they were facing an opponent that on Pythag had a better regular season than they did! And to the extent Baltimore outplayed its Pythagorean record, a big part of that was all-world performance by Felix Bautista, who was injured and out of the playoffs.

Sure, but Baltimore's problems in the ALDS had nothing to do with Bautista's absence. In two of the three games, they never got within spitting distance of needing a closer, and in the one that was close the runs came early.

I'm in awe of what Baltimore accomplished this year, but it does appear that their W/L record was somewhat inflated--first in the simple Pythagorean sense of runs scored and allowed, and then in how those runs were scored and allowed (Posnanski):

No, what made the Orioles such a great story was how well they performed all season when games were in the balance. I believe we’ve talked about the Orioles’ incredible high-leverage hitting this year but here it is again; they were just a different lineup in high-leverage spots:

High-leverage: .293/.365/.486
Medium-leverage: .250/.411/.414
Low-leverage: .244/.311/.403

That’s a staggering difference. The Orioles were 10th in batting average across baseball this year. But they had the BEST batting average with runners in scoring position. We can argue all day about clutch hitting and how repeatable it is and so on, but the Orioles were a clutch-hitting monster all season long.

Crazily, the same was generally true of their pitching. Look at the slash-lines for hitters against Orioles pitching:

High-leverage: .231/.300/.356
Medium-leverage: .244/.308/.411
Low-leverage: .345/.310/.398

The results are not quite as dramatic as with the offense … but the Orioles still pitched dramatically better in high-leverage situations. They were 12th across baseball in batting average against overall. In high-leverage situations? They were third.

This is how a team like the Orioles — without great pitching and without a power-hitting lineup — wins 101 games. They play fantastic when games are close. They go 30-16 in one-run games.

And, as he goes on to make clear, he's not trying to diminish their accomplishment, just make clear why that might not necessarily mean a lot come playoff time:

And if it sounds like I’m downplaying the Orioles’ wonderful season, I promise you I am not...I’m doing the exact opposite. Stuff like that used to MATTER. Baseball used to be built around the long season, and seasons like the Orioles just had were not only celebrated, they were rewarded. Until 1969, the Orioles — by having the best record in the American League — would have gone directly to the World Series without having to pass Go or Globe Life Field.

From 1969 to 1993, the Orioles, by virtue of those 101 wins, would have gone to the American League Championship Series.

And now, we all know, it’s different.

In the case of Baltimore in particular, you could see the offense losing steam towards the end of the season

This was clear in ATL too except it was offense AND pitching. On 9/2 they were 90-45, .667 W%, then finished on a 14-13 run and were clearly still a .519 team in the NLDS. Just gassed.

Of course, in the spirit of baseball romanticism, I can't help thinking that if Hicks hadn't misread the sign for a hit and run in game 1, the series might have gone differently.

xp I was stunned at the Braves' breakdown. Strider looked stunned last night, too.

In the case of Baltimore in particular, they were facing an opponent that on Pythag had a better regular season than they did! And to the extent Baltimore outplayed its Pythagorean record, a big part of that was all-world performance by Felix Bautista, who was injured and out of the playoffs.

I think this is absolutely wrong and I think there's no reason beyond luck that sometimes a good team sweeps a series against a great team. That happens in May and it happens in October. Same sport.

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Friday, October 13, 2023 1:39 PM (thirty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I think this is probably correct. sure having 3 great starters and 2 lockdown relievers does help but that helps a lot in the regular season too. and it's not like your 4th starter just doesn't pitch in the playoffs.

xp I was stunned at the Braves' breakdown. Strider looked stunned last night, too.

Sure, but Baltimore's problems in the ALDS had nothing to do with Bautista's absence. In two of the three games, they never got within spitting distance of needing a closer

I mean, the big problem was obviously that starters who had been good the whole second half (and who didn't really show signs of being gassed in September) got lit up and knocked out early. But if you need to get 7 innings of relief, and you have Bautista to pitch the end of the game, maybe you don't have Bryan Baker in a key spot walking the bases loaded. Losing your best guy means innings for your fifth or sixth best guy, especially if you have a lot of innings to cover.

Another interesting counterfactual is whether Hyde has more ability to use starters in long relief in games 2 and 3 if Means is available.

Teams with longer layoffs are now 24-14 against their opponents.

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) October 13, 2023

I guess if the point is, without Bautista the O's weren't a 101-win team, that's probably right. I took my son to a couple of games against the Astros in August. They lost the first one. In the second one, without Bautista to shut the door in the 9th, they would have lost that also.

_
Sure, but Baltimore's problems in the ALDS had nothing to do with Bautista's absence. In two of the three games, they never got within spitting distance of needing a closer_


I mean, the big problem was obviously that starters who had been good the whole second half (and who didn't really show signs of being gassed in September) got lit up and knocked out early. But if you need to get 7 innings of relief, and you have Bautista to pitch the end of the game, maybe you don't have Bryan Baker in a key spot walking the bases loaded. Losing your best guy means innings for your fifth or sixth best guy, especially if you have a lot of innings to cover.

Felt for him, he gave them two quality starts - 4 er across 12.2 innings - and got 1 run of support total.

From an offense that absolutely crushed the team records for hits, home runs and stolen bases--and the MLB record for home runs by a team--this season.

Yeah I was surprised they didn’t send Acuna more when he got on. They didn’t get outhit significantly in the biggest losses either, they had 10 hits to the Phillies 11 in the 10-2 loss but were far less able to convert those into runs.

Lol

David Ortiz is the best pic.twitter.com/VlRLctyqjc

— Robert Alvarez (@ralvarez617) October 17, 2023

Monday, Tuesday, Scherzday

I think Posnanski gets at why, when you step back, this has been kind of a boring postseason at the game level (i.e., putting aside all the underdog narratives):

OK, how many times in these playoffs have we had this basic plotline — Team A scores a crooked number against the starter, Team B can’t come back, game ends? It feels like EVERY game has been like that...

That’s two more games without a single lead change. There have been 25 playoff games so far. Guess how many of them had lead changes? Let’s look...*

So, again, 25 games and there have been a total — a grand total — of FIVE lead changes in the entire playoffs, only one of them was what you might call “dramatic,” and not a single game has had more than one lead change.

*And when I talk about lead changes, I’m talking about end-of-inning lead changes … in the Braves-Phillies series, for example, there were times when the Braves took the lead in the top of an inning and the Phillies came right back in the bottom of the inning. Those don’t count for me.

I rearranged a bit and took out his examples there, but you get the idea. Games have basically been decided in the first inning or two.

I'd push back against this a little. I think "one team jumps out to a big lead, the other team chips, chips, chips" is a genre of good game, with its own particular flavor of tension, especially if the tying run comes to the plate at least once.

teams have had their chances

i’m not versed in modern sabrmetrics but i feel like its not like the winning teams have been pitching no hit, shutout baseball. losing teams have produced high leverage situations (I think I’m using that term right) and those situations have mostly ended up in whimpers and not bangs, as happens in baseball.

I guess it's just the fact that no one's getting the big dramatic hit that makes the cumulative effect a little boring. As I posted last night, the ALCS could have had a really dramatic finish if Alvarez had gotten up with two on.

i think the best series we can hope for will be the likeliest one, a Texas/Philly slugfest.

And when I talk about lead changes, I’m talking about end-of-inning lead changes … in the Braves-Phillies series, for example, there were times when the Braves took the lead in the top of an inning and the Phillies came right back in the bottom of the inning. Those don’t count for me.

this is a silly caveat

I actually can’t wait. Expect at least one 20-run+ (between both teams) game if we get to that. For my money, one of the most exciting post season game I’ve seen was the (tainted) 2017 game 5 12-13 run bonanza

this was the first day in postseason history where multiple teams won when trailing by multiple runs in the 8th inning or later

BASEBALL IS THE BEST https://t.co/LBBMmqZO6n

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) October 21, 2023

I find that very surprising.

Really wish I had switched on the diamondbacks game