MLB 2023 Postseason Thread

Choking in the playoffs is a real and observable tradition and I’m tired of pretending it isn’t.

Jays have been practicing all year and this is there moment in that case.

Can’t stat pad against the basement teams in the playoffs. Play better.

continuous thoughtless response. If you can't see the problem of a tied 101 win Mets team in 2022 having to play a best of 3 against a 89 win Padres team then I can't help you

Is there an argument besides regional rivalry or "Tradition" for the current divisional system?

_Can’t stat pad against the basement teams in the playoffs. Play better.
_


continuous thoughtless response. If you can't see the problem of a tied 101 win Mets team in 2022 having to play a best of 3 against a 89 win Padres team then I can't help you

That’s baseball, Suzyn. Anyone can beat anyone, and they do.

This is what happens when soccer fans with all their baggage transition to baseball fandom. God forbid

a few "it is what it is" and "scumbag nerds" would have functioned exactly the same as your previous response btw. Help us out and reduce the word load next time

This is what happens when soccer fans with all their baggage transition to baseball fandom. God forbid

Please explain

Or don't, I'm sure the board could do with less of us sparring over your thoughtless/bad-faith posts (for clarification, thoughtless in this instance)

Hey HP don’t bother webmailing me when you got weirdly personal over a difference of opinion. As a fan of multiple teams who didn’t make the playoffs due to playing like shit, I am always consistent on this point. The notion that you think you can talk down to me because I don’t have a problem with the playoff structure isn’t it.

Lol okay buddy, didn’t question your consistency on your thoughtless opinion but thanks for the clarification! 👌🏼

Let me know when you want to clarify your free agency comment? Also, I’m talking down to you because I think the biblical “answer a fool by his folly” is more applicable then the equally biblical “do not answer the fool by his folly” in this instance. Judgement call, may be wrong, I’ll live with it

And I dm’d because obviously this board needs less of this folly, but let the record show you want to keep it public so good for you! ☺️

If someone doesn’t respond to you in *checks notes* three minutes, then yeah, webmailing them does come across as weird.

“I don’t want to fight, I’m just pressing for a response in under five minutes from someone I’ve already called an idiot”

Thanks! Yet again, don’t really know what you’re trying to say here? But I’m sure it all makes sense in your head ☺️

“I don’t want to fight, I’m just pressing for a response in under five minutes from someone I’ve already called an idiot”

“Im going to quote several things I have made up in my own head as facts in order to attack another person while I continue to shift goal posts so I’m always the winner”

^^ might just quote this one for future reference. As a succinct summary of the gyac ilxor experience as I think you’ll get.

I will stop now. Look forward to more post season baseball tomorrow

Is there an argument besides regional rivalry or "Tradition" for the current divisional system?

I agree that it would be more logical, for the reasons you mentioned, to have a single table for each league. But regional rivalries are really, really important to baseball tradition and I'm not sure I want to give that up.

(Counterargument: the divisions have veen realigned many times and baseball always survived)

But as long as we do have divisions, I don't see the point in complaining about "weak" divisions. It's changing all the time, strong divisions become weak and vice versa and it usually doesn't take more than a few years. The AL East is strong most years -- but it's with different teams almost every year now (the Yanks and Red Sox finished at the bottom for the first time ever I think?)

No doubt regional rivalries are important. As an international fan I don’t get to enjoy the lived experience of that aspect as much, but I can still respect it even from this distance. Hard to shift the status quo when its benefit is so intensely personal so I’m not personally offended by the current state of things.

I’d be interested to see divisional win-loss standings since 1969 to get a better idea of your second point. The worst team in the AL east was tied with the 2nd best team in the AL central this year, 4th place (NYY) was 4 wins above and 3rd place (Jays) is 2 wins above the 1st place AL East team (Twins, though that lead is perhaps soon to be erased in tomorrows game). I think the benefit divisions have given has been undermined by the shake up of the schedule this year, which does lead one to question whether it’s doing more harm than good… I’ve only been a fan for a short 7 years, but for that whole time the AL central has been a joke which is a long time for a division to suck.

Speaking from an NL-West following perspective, There’s kind of only been 1 year in those 7 where divisional play actually effected post season results (2021 where giants had one over the Dodgers). So I’ve been pretty removed to the joy and sorrow of stealing/losing essential wins from other teams in your division. But in an hypothetical new system where overall wins were what got you post season placement, not divisional standings, I think stealing a win of a regional rival battling for post season success would taste just as sweet?

Kinda want to send an email to effectively wild to figure out how the divisions stack since introduction by cumulative win-loss. A decade by decade overview would be cool

baseball should move to a basketball model at this point imo - tear up the leagues and just do East - West as two big conferences. You could call them leagues or divisions for old times' sake but they'd be conferences. gotta be one of the top seeds to make the playoffs. you're welcome

H.P you can accuse gyac - and the rest of us - of a few things probably but "thoughtless" isn't one of them

FWIW three AL Central teams made the playoffs in 2020 (crazy 60-game COVID season, but they all had very good W-L records). Since 2015 every AL Central team except the Tigers have won the division, and many of them were very good teams. It's true that 85 wins is never good enough to win AL East but I don't think there are prolonged stretches (of say, 4-5 years) where a division doesn't produce a couple of great teams.

100% agree with that model with my head, though my heart does love that B is this strange hold out (sorry don’t care about nfl) in its divisional model. My heart also loved no pitch clock and everyone seems to love that change so hey.

Don’t remember accusing gyac of being thoughtless tbh

*MLB

thoughtless response

― H.P, Wednesday, 4 October 2023 10:23 (four hours ago)

Can’t stat pad against the basement teams in the playoffs. Play better.

continuous thoughtless response.

I'm sure the board could do with less of us sparring over your thoughtless/bad-faith posts (for clarification, thoughtless in this instance)

― H.P, Wednesday, 4 October 2023 10:46 (three hours ago)

(three hours ago)

I’m not sure the AL Central has produced a “great” team since 2016 (wish they won it). But I’m splitting hairs. Totally forgot about 3 in 2020! That’s wild. Also shows how much I think about the AL central, was blown away to see it was the Tigers in 2nd place I was comparing the AL East bottom feeders to. Hope the tiger rose keeps coming!

fwiw i find yr beef incredibly inconsequential and tiresome but the personal nature of your condescension H.P unfortunately is pretty consequential and that's the main thing in this thread the board could do less with imo

Where do I call gyac thoughtless in those posts?

Agreed Tracer

🤨

If gyac can apologise for posting about my wife divorcing me (categorise under: personal nature of condescension) I’m happy to not call out any thoughtless posts by her in the future.

Would also like to clarify, would love to not be doing this on the mlb post season thread of all things lol or be talking to another poster through a mediator! But hey, you try your best and apparently sending webmail’s is weird 🤷🏼‍♂️

xp when did i ever do that? You brought it up, not me? If you are in fact getting divorced, i promise i didn’t know about it, and if you scroll up you’ll see the dig i made was about the incident where you told the board you sought her opinion about whether Glen Kuiper should have been fired for using a racial slur?

Hey gyac, I won’t webmail you because you’ve said you’d rather not, but you know we don’t have to do this here? you can go ahead and scroll up on the “posts you’ve had second thoughts about” (a treasure trove of gyac toxicity) and cross reference it with the “cancelled” thread if you’d really like to

dog can you not

not what?

don't think this thread is what j0rd had in mind

xps you can webmail me the links because I’m pretty sure i have no idea what you’re referring to and I’ll respond the same way

Kids, kids, can we stop fighting and concentrate on what's important here which is LET'S GO O'S

Sorry but I’m on the Diamondbacks train now, and when the train inevitably meets its destination of failure, I’m here for bad umpiring and chaos

No!! That's the wrong train!!! Get off before it's too late!!!!

sadly choo choo
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eu_n_fIUUAEdqX6.jpg

Let's
Go
O's

We’ll see how it goes with the Jays and Brewers, but there is def a road to me jumping on teams O’s

Frogs has moved me onto the Brew Crew, this train might not leave the station but it’ll have a lot of cheese

I don't think it is because of the bye week, it's a long season (and postseason) and getting rest is important.

Maybe this is a topic for the intangibles thread, but teams like Texas and Arizona were playing important games all through September, fighting for their playoff lives. Whereas LA and Atlanta had their division locked up weeks ago, and weren't able to pivot and turn it on in October (whatever "it" is).

I think it’s a good topic for this thread.

So here’s our question — and his: Why are we so obsessed with who’s not still playing in the postseason when there’s such an obvious reason that teams like Realmuto’s October behemoths, the Phillies, are still playing?

And that reason goes like this:

Surely, you must have noticed by now that October baseball is practically a whole different sport than April-to-September baseball.

So here’s an idea: Maybe we should stop looking for excuses for the teams that are heading home. Instead, let’s take a closer look at why teams such as the Phillies — and their partners in World Series crime last fall, the Astros — keep finding ways to survive and advance.

Surely, you must have noticed by now that October baseball is practically a whole different sport than April-to-September baseball.

I think this is absolutely wrong and I think there's no reason beyond luck that sometimes a good team sweeps a series against a great team. That happens in May and it happens in October. Same sport.

In the case of Baltimore in particular, you could see the offense losing steam towards the end of the season, and it was very concerning that Hyde was going through the relief at such a clip. And I do think that lack of playoff experience truly was a factor.

In the case of Baltimore in particular, they were facing an opponent that on Pythag had a better regular season than they did! And to the extent Baltimore outplayed its Pythagorean record, a big part of that was all-world performance by Felix Bautista, who was injured and out of the playoffs.

Sure, but Baltimore's problems in the ALDS had nothing to do with Bautista's absence. In two of the three games, they never got within spitting distance of needing a closer, and in the one that was close the runs came early.

I'm in awe of what Baltimore accomplished this year, but it does appear that their W/L record was somewhat inflated--first in the simple Pythagorean sense of runs scored and allowed, and then in how those runs were scored and allowed (Posnanski):

No, what made the Orioles such a great story was how well they performed all season when games were in the balance. I believe we’ve talked about the Orioles’ incredible high-leverage hitting this year but here it is again; they were just a different lineup in high-leverage spots:

High-leverage: .293/.365/.486
Medium-leverage: .250/.411/.414
Low-leverage: .244/.311/.403

That’s a staggering difference. The Orioles were 10th in batting average across baseball this year. But they had the BEST batting average with runners in scoring position. We can argue all day about clutch hitting and how repeatable it is and so on, but the Orioles were a clutch-hitting monster all season long.

Crazily, the same was generally true of their pitching. Look at the slash-lines for hitters against Orioles pitching:

High-leverage: .231/.300/.356
Medium-leverage: .244/.308/.411
Low-leverage: .345/.310/.398

The results are not quite as dramatic as with the offense … but the Orioles still pitched dramatically better in high-leverage situations. They were 12th across baseball in batting average against overall. In high-leverage situations? They were third.

This is how a team like the Orioles — without great pitching and without a power-hitting lineup — wins 101 games. They play fantastic when games are close. They go 30-16 in one-run games.

And, as he goes on to make clear, he's not trying to diminish their accomplishment, just make clear why that might not necessarily mean a lot come playoff time:

And if it sounds like I’m downplaying the Orioles’ wonderful season, I promise you I am not...I’m doing the exact opposite. Stuff like that used to MATTER. Baseball used to be built around the long season, and seasons like the Orioles just had were not only celebrated, they were rewarded. Until 1969, the Orioles — by having the best record in the American League — would have gone directly to the World Series without having to pass Go or Globe Life Field.

From 1969 to 1993, the Orioles, by virtue of those 101 wins, would have gone to the American League Championship Series.

And now, we all know, it’s different.

In the case of Baltimore in particular, you could see the offense losing steam towards the end of the season

This was clear in ATL too except it was offense AND pitching. On 9/2 they were 90-45, .667 W%, then finished on a 14-13 run and were clearly still a .519 team in the NLDS. Just gassed.

Of course, in the spirit of baseball romanticism, I can't help thinking that if Hicks hadn't misread the sign for a hit and run in game 1, the series might have gone differently.

xp I was stunned at the Braves' breakdown. Strider looked stunned last night, too.

In the case of Baltimore in particular, they were facing an opponent that on Pythag had a better regular season than they did! And to the extent Baltimore outplayed its Pythagorean record, a big part of that was all-world performance by Felix Bautista, who was injured and out of the playoffs.

I think this is absolutely wrong and I think there's no reason beyond luck that sometimes a good team sweeps a series against a great team. That happens in May and it happens in October. Same sport.

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Friday, October 13, 2023 1:39 PM (thirty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I think this is probably correct. sure having 3 great starters and 2 lockdown relievers does help but that helps a lot in the regular season too. and it's not like your 4th starter just doesn't pitch in the playoffs.

xp I was stunned at the Braves' breakdown. Strider looked stunned last night, too.

Sure, but Baltimore's problems in the ALDS had nothing to do with Bautista's absence. In two of the three games, they never got within spitting distance of needing a closer

I mean, the big problem was obviously that starters who had been good the whole second half (and who didn't really show signs of being gassed in September) got lit up and knocked out early. But if you need to get 7 innings of relief, and you have Bautista to pitch the end of the game, maybe you don't have Bryan Baker in a key spot walking the bases loaded. Losing your best guy means innings for your fifth or sixth best guy, especially if you have a lot of innings to cover.

Another interesting counterfactual is whether Hyde has more ability to use starters in long relief in games 2 and 3 if Means is available.

Teams with longer layoffs are now 24-14 against their opponents.

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) October 13, 2023

I guess if the point is, without Bautista the O's weren't a 101-win team, that's probably right. I took my son to a couple of games against the Astros in August. They lost the first one. In the second one, without Bautista to shut the door in the 9th, they would have lost that also.

_
Sure, but Baltimore's problems in the ALDS had nothing to do with Bautista's absence. In two of the three games, they never got within spitting distance of needing a closer_


I mean, the big problem was obviously that starters who had been good the whole second half (and who didn't really show signs of being gassed in September) got lit up and knocked out early. But if you need to get 7 innings of relief, and you have Bautista to pitch the end of the game, maybe you don't have Bryan Baker in a key spot walking the bases loaded. Losing your best guy means innings for your fifth or sixth best guy, especially if you have a lot of innings to cover.

Felt for him, he gave them two quality starts - 4 er across 12.2 innings - and got 1 run of support total.

From an offense that absolutely crushed the team records for hits, home runs and stolen bases--and the MLB record for home runs by a team--this season.

Yeah I was surprised they didn’t send Acuna more when he got on. They didn’t get outhit significantly in the biggest losses either, they had 10 hits to the Phillies 11 in the 10-2 loss but were far less able to convert those into runs.

Lol

David Ortiz is the best pic.twitter.com/VlRLctyqjc

— Robert Alvarez (@ralvarez617) October 17, 2023

Monday, Tuesday, Scherzday

I think Posnanski gets at why, when you step back, this has been kind of a boring postseason at the game level (i.e., putting aside all the underdog narratives):

OK, how many times in these playoffs have we had this basic plotline — Team A scores a crooked number against the starter, Team B can’t come back, game ends? It feels like EVERY game has been like that...

That’s two more games without a single lead change. There have been 25 playoff games so far. Guess how many of them had lead changes? Let’s look...*

So, again, 25 games and there have been a total — a grand total — of FIVE lead changes in the entire playoffs, only one of them was what you might call “dramatic,” and not a single game has had more than one lead change.

*And when I talk about lead changes, I’m talking about end-of-inning lead changes … in the Braves-Phillies series, for example, there were times when the Braves took the lead in the top of an inning and the Phillies came right back in the bottom of the inning. Those don’t count for me.

I rearranged a bit and took out his examples there, but you get the idea. Games have basically been decided in the first inning or two.

I'd push back against this a little. I think "one team jumps out to a big lead, the other team chips, chips, chips" is a genre of good game, with its own particular flavor of tension, especially if the tying run comes to the plate at least once.

teams have had their chances

i’m not versed in modern sabrmetrics but i feel like its not like the winning teams have been pitching no hit, shutout baseball. losing teams have produced high leverage situations (I think I’m using that term right) and those situations have mostly ended up in whimpers and not bangs, as happens in baseball.

I guess it's just the fact that no one's getting the big dramatic hit that makes the cumulative effect a little boring. As I posted last night, the ALCS could have had a really dramatic finish if Alvarez had gotten up with two on.

i think the best series we can hope for will be the likeliest one, a Texas/Philly slugfest.

And when I talk about lead changes, I’m talking about end-of-inning lead changes … in the Braves-Phillies series, for example, there were times when the Braves took the lead in the top of an inning and the Phillies came right back in the bottom of the inning. Those don’t count for me.

this is a silly caveat

I actually can’t wait. Expect at least one 20-run+ (between both teams) game if we get to that. For my money, one of the most exciting post season game I’ve seen was the (tainted) 2017 game 5 12-13 run bonanza

this was the first day in postseason history where multiple teams won when trailing by multiple runs in the 8th inning or later

BASEBALL IS THE BEST https://t.co/LBBMmqZO6n

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) October 21, 2023

I find that very surprising.

Really wish I had switched on the diamondbacks game