the pitch clock is counting down to the MLB 2023 REGULAR SEASON THREAD

How the fuck did he hit this out

.@MarkVientos_5 is red hot at the dish 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ugewjfSbbT

— New York Mets (@Mets) September 22, 2023

the NL Cy Young race is vv interesting right now. Blake Snell has the lowest ERA and it's not even close. tops in bWAR too. kinda hard for me to say he's been the most dominant pitcher, w/Strider out there, but the latter has a 3.73(!) ERA, so despite the 270 Ks and 18 Ws and being the ace of a contender, that might ding him quite a bit. Steele, Gallen, Webb, and Senga are in the mix, too.

Snell is #6 in NL fWAR which may be yet another example of how flawed the various WAR calcs are.

eg, Wheeler is #1 NL in fWAR and #4 in bWAR.

true!

kinda find it hard to believe Snell would win, but there's no true standout candidate. maybe big zach wheels could pull it off with a strong final couple starts.

but i'd suspect if Strider can bring down that ERA a bit a get to 20 he'll take it.

I can't copy the whole thing, but these are the last four paragraphs from a Posnanski post the other day:

Can you say with any real assurance that Blake Snell, overall, has pitched better than Logan Webb? How much better? Snell might win the Cy Young running away. Webb will likely get little to no support.

Do the same thing with Cole and, say, Sonny Gray. In this case, it’s Cole with more innings — he leads the league with 192 innings pitched. Gray has 174. Cole also leads the league in ERA, and he has a significantly lower WHIP than Gray and a better strikeout-to-walk ratio.

But Gray’s ERA is basically the same (2.84 vs. 2.81), and Gray has his own advantages. He very rarely gives up home runs. In a time when home runs play such a massive role in scoring, being the best in the league at avoiding them (Gray has allowed seven homers all year; Cole has given up 20) is a pretty big deal. Because of that, Gray’s FIP (2.85) almost perfectly aligns with his ERA, while Cole, because he does give up the long ball, has, as mentioned, about a half-run gap.

Again, let me repeat, I’m not saying that Cole and Snell are undeserving of the Cy. They ARE deserving. But so are others. And it’s harder than ever to tell the difference.

This is actually the key paragraph from earlier in the piece:

I bring this up because something pretty dramatic seems to be happening in baseball, Something we’ve all seen building for years and years, and now it’s upon us, or at least upon me: I have no real idea how to value starting pitchers anymore.

I assume he meant evaluate, not value.

I have no opinion/little interest in awards* generally speaking. The Logan Webb mention caught my eye purely because he’s been repeatedly shit on by terrible Giants run support and defending but he’s pitched more innings that anyone else iirc? He pitches pretty deeply into games and if the Giants had a most valuable player this season it was him and it’s not close. That’s important when they basically had two starters all season and a bullpen that’s been…patchy. I guess that’s the point Posnanski makes, what counts as value.

I did feel sorry for Justin Steele when he got lit up the other day. Haven’t watched a single Snell start this season so can’t comment but know people have commented about his high walk rate.

*except Tim Lincecum’s ofc

Cole and Luis Castillo must be two of the most homer friendly aces in the league

Oh yeah actually thinking about it I’d like Zac Gallen not to win, not because he’s not a fine pitcher or whatever - he’s really good - but because he has repeatedly said he was so disappointed with his Cy voting that he took the names of writers who didn’t vote for him or didn’t place him highly enough.

Speaking of Snell, the Padres have quietly snuck back into WC contention. If (major conditional) they are able to turn their season around in the 11th hour, that could make Snell's case a little stronger.

I could see them being a total NL darkhorse (except for those who look at Pythag. records) pulling some Cinderella story theatrics if they luck themselves into the playoffs with a major hot streak.

Strider is actually way up there in fWAR, which makes sense since he passes the "eye test". he's definitely the most Lincecum-like out there, i hope he's not Lincecum-like in terms of career and peak length though.

I think most starters would take his achievements regardless of length though.

I really have liked watching Strider during the season, and I liked him even more when I saw something pop up from his Clemson days where he said he wanted to have dinner with Bernie Sanders. I guess his size is a concern though and he throws hard. I posted upthread that his incredible strikeout numbers could see him pass out Seaver and Lincecum in the strikeouts in the first five career years.

Yeah the Padres have been storming back but that NL WC is already really competitive - they’ve likely left it too late for a run but I hadn’t actually realised their win streak was that long!

Timmy had an enviable career for sure, closer to a Johan Santana than a Mark Prior, thankfully. And with World Series titles.

Mark Prior is one of felicity’s favourite pitchers ever so I’ve read a lot about him and I find him resurfacing and having great success as the Dodgers pitching coach incredible, especially when they take in guys and improve them drastically. Also, he had just taken over in LA when Lincecum was trying that second failed comeback and LA was one of the two places that really wanted him - would have loved to have seen them work together, but in the end TL couldn’t sign with LA.

Prior should have won the Cy that season where voters decided a roided-up Gagne was a more deserving pick than him or Jason Schmidt. love the guy obv, he was fun to watch.

if we call great starters aces we should call the bad ones jokers

Unfortunately I just watched Jameson Taillon (who I really like) struggle through a difficult inning against the Rockies. If the Cubbies make the postseason he’s getting Zitoed off that roster.

xp Deuces

some people call them Maurice

I'm a joker, mediocre, the late season choker
Yet might win the CY based on flawed WAR 🎶

Some people say I look like a batboy, yeah
Some like to say I can’t shove

the Padres have quietly snuck back into WC contention

making up four games with nine to play and four other teams ahead of you is . . . not a promising scenario. fangraphs still has them under 1%

When I speak
Of the pompatous of glove

'Cause I'm a picker
I'm a masher
I’m stealing quicker
Say hi to catcher
I play my ballgame in the sun

Brewers marlins 2nd inning is crazy. Brewers have batted around and put up 10 runs, there are two outs

everyone has scored a run and everyone has an RBI except Adames

Rowdy Tellez pitched the 9th. no runs, one hit, one strikeout (!!)

kinda wonder if this is the first time the last out of a postseason-clinching game was pitched by a position player. but I've no clue how to look it up.

That's amazing...has to be--and what a guy to do it.

this is great

Pitchers who secured the final out on the day the Brewers clinched a postseason berth:

1981: Rollie Fingers
1982: Bob McClure
2008: CC Sabathia
2011: John Axford
2018: Josh Hader
2019: Junior Guerra
2020: Adrian Houser
2021: Josh Hader
2023: Rowdy Tellez pic.twitter.com/It7vgDBubx

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) September 23, 2023

Well that is not what i expected rowdy tellez to sound like

what a dude

Love Rowdy Tellez. I’ve seriously watched this video so many times (gives a nice shout out to Willy Adames in this too)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Sq8Ky56MEA

The Padres have an easy schedule the rest of the way (STL,SF,CHW) so I'm not counting them out yet.

Re:Snell, the combination of his high walk rate (5BB/9IP) and phenomenal ERA are practically unprecedented in recent years. It seems lucky/unsustainable, but he somehow keeps going. He has a 1.66 ERA in the second half, and a 1 98 SO/BB ratio. None of it makes sense. (I keep waiting for it to make sense, because I have him in fantasy baseball)

I really thought Snell was done in 2019 after breaking his toe in the bathroom (obviously a curse-worthy injury). Strange fella

Lord, Wainwright is a blackhole of a personality in that clip. Cruel to give him a mic amongst all those actual funny and appealing blokes

Put Kershaw down as a 2-3% chance at 300 as well.

Meant to run a Favorite Toy projection on this...works out to 1%, so very close. Verlander, skipping past 2020/21 and using his 2019 season as his third most recent, comes out at 0%. I still feel intuitively that Kershaw's a slightly longer longshot than Verlander--I can't see Kershaw hanging around that long.

Verlander won all of 1 game in 2020/21. If you were to add another 30 wins for those two years--and depending upon how much his longevity would have been affected by him pitching instead of sitting out those two seasons--he might have been a very good bet going into 2024.

Yeah kershaw has talked about retiring every year for the past 3? Keeps signing one year contracts so I don’t know, don’t feel like it’s very likely. Even if he keeps going, he’s been flirting with the idea of joining the rangers to get back to his hometown and as previously mentioned to much chagrin here, he ain’t as likely to get as many wins with that team vs. the dodgers, even with their recent uptick.

If rich hill can still pitch to his age 43 season and put up positive war, obviously Verlander could too. Who knows what could happen with 3/4 more seasons under his belt? Unless he’s been hinting at a upcoming retirement

god bless rich hill (who has not put up positive WAR this season) but he is a below-average major league pitcher only fit to be signed by the likes of the pirates and then traded to a vaguely contending team for a terrible prospect. (and if padres actually get anywhere close to the last wild card, you could argue that he lost it for them)

i doubt verlander wants to go out like that. i.e., like wainwright. he's already a hall of famer, he's not going to get to 300 wins, he doesn't need the money. i'm sure he loves the competition, tho, so we'll see

Logically, he has no chance. But he's signed for 2024, he seems to be very much in the Rickey Henderson/Nolan Ryan mode of wanting to play forever if someone will let him, and he does have 300 on his mind.

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/baseball/2023/justin-verlander-mets-300-wins-chase-1234730600/

"Look, it’s not the reason I’m still pitching, but I’d love to do it,” Verlander said. "I love the game. But, it’s simple math. I need 15 more a year, for what, three more years? If I play five or six more years, I should get there. I’m just trying to extend my window as long as possible and still be good. If I play until I’m 45 or 46, it’s still very plausible."

I'm definitely not saying he'll get there, but I'm not discounting the possibility. (Has any star post-free agency who played past the age of 40 actually needed the money? I don't see that as a factor either way.)

positive fwar for Rich, didn't check bwar. Obviously a big difference in quality between the two, one has 3 Cy Young Awards, with one in his age 39 season, the other has never been nominated. If the desire is there (which it seems to be) and the body can hold out (the biggest thing putting this all to question), who knows what could happen

positive fwar for Rich

my apologies to R.H. and H.P.

although looking at his other stats i'm not sure how he got there!

lmao

Portrait of Henry VIII of England, by Hans Holbein the Younger, 1537, 🎥: @AdamMcCalvy https://t.co/cjJer6Nsqp pic.twitter.com/q4dUqLFLEV

— ArtButMakeItSports (@ArtButSports) September 23, 2023

Mookie just hit 105 rbi's with a double off noted previous Dodger all-star Ross Stripling (what happened to him!), new record for most single season ribeye's for a lead-off batter.

Mookie and Acuna basically tied in this MVP race atm. Probably will come down to which team goes further in the post season

SD/STL game is pretty hyped going into extras, esp. after brutal Reds collapse. What's up mookieproofy?

They're tied analytically--Betts even marginally ahead--but it looks like Acuna has leapt ahead in the ancient narrative category.