the pitch clock is counting down to the MLB 2023 REGULAR SEASON THREAD

Wainwright got his 200th tonight, caught the first flight out for Nashville after the game.

Yes! Good for him!

Well, get a load of mega mitt. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/ex1WMK3zBM

— Cut4 (@Cut4) September 17, 2023

Opposite of jumping the gun is this mlb.com piece on Wainwright from last night:

https://www.mlb.com/news/why-it-s-a-big-deal-that-adam-wainwright-got-his-200th-win

The idea that he might be the last 200-game-winner ever (regardless of what you think about pitcher wins) is absurd. Gerrit Cole, for one, is 32 with 143 wins--I'm sure there are a number of active pitchers who should reach 200.

I haven't even completely abandoned the idea that we'll see another 300-game winner; maybe Verlander, maybe somebody else. Odds are against it, I know, but someone would by definition be an exception to the rule to get there, and that does happen in baseball.

Eh I get the article, you can’t count on anything with injuries. Verlander’s velocity was oddly down in his last few starts and has been down a bit from last year too, could be tiredness but his velo being able to hold up has been a big part of his success. Nothing is guaranteed even for the few going that long.

I'll put it this way: I wouldn't bet anything I cared about on 300, but I'd bet anything I have on 200.

Now that I've actually looked at the active wins leaders, I've got to concede that past Cole--who I absolutely think will win 200--it indeed looks dire for even 200. The under-30 leaders are Berrios (29, 83), Márquez (28, 65), Fried (29, 61), Giolito (28, 61), and Urias (26, 60). That is not a promising list, especially in view of the last guy's issues.

good thing you didn’t bet everything you had on that!

I'd still bet a lot on Cole. After that, think I'd be pretty wary for the foreseeable future.

i don’t think verlander will get to 300. being optimistic, he’ll need three more 15-win seasons, and with the way his velocity and peripheral stats are trending that’s a great deal to expect (even on a good team)

He's an extreme longshot for sure--2 or 3%? The only reason I don't totally discount it is he's made it clear it's something he wants to do--i.e., if there's someone who'll pay him, he'll play. So that's the minimum bar he has to clear. And he is, when healthy, still pitching well.

I’ve been laughing at this play for a while

The Rockies practiced this play tirelessly and when they finally rolled it out in a game it worked perfectly! 😂 pic.twitter.com/HPNUKF1COx

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) September 20, 2023

Put Kershaw down as a 2-3% chance at 300 as well. Give him 7 more seasons with the dodgers at his current rate and he gets it I think. I think Kershaw COULD pitch into his 42nd year, I just am not sure if he will want to.

Grienke really killed his chances playing for the royals. If you take the average win total of his non-royals seasons (and minus 2020) and spread it out over his 20 seasons it comes up to 312 wins. Stays above 300 even counting 2020. He only pitched a few innings in 2006, but even minusing that he is still high 290~ wins. Pays to play for winners when you're looking for wins.

Grienke really killed his chances playing for the royals. If you take the average win total of his non-royals seasons (and minus 2020) and spread it out over his 20 seasons it comes up to 312 wins. Stays above 300 even counting 2020. He only pitched a few innings in 2006, but even minusing that he is still high 290~ wins. Pays to play for winners when you're looking for wins.

Pays to play for winners when you're looking for wins.

Good Lord gyac do you really have to? 😮‍💨 thanks for all that information I clearly didn’t know

returning to this as I'm genuinely curious:

I admit they occasionally seem prone to huffing their own sweat and letting their guard down. Or maybe they all take a mental vacation at the same time (losing two to STL last week, losing two to OAK in the first half). Their biggest weakness, SP5, will be camouflaged in the playoffs.

― I Wanna Find an ILXor That'll Flag My Last Post Till I Have To Go (WmC), Monday, September 11, 2023 1:17 PM (one week ago)

ATLs rotation as I understand it is:

SP1 Strider
SP2 Fried?
SP3 Morton?
SP4 Elder

I think the rotation weakness is quite a bit shallower than SP5 iicbch... even if they're scoring 5 runs a game.

Kinda not following that sentence construction, so I'll just say... maybe, maybe not.

Corbin Carroll first rookie with 25 HR/50 SB.

O’s looking to finish with the best record in the AL, and have a shot (2 games back) at best record in baseball. Incredible

They did lose today. Still won this series with the Astros, which is very encouraging. The Rays can (should) pick up a game today.

I believe in the corpse of the angels.

Final three series are pretty evenly stacked between the O’s and the Rays. I think I’m more interested than this race than the one for the final wild card. I don’t see any of those battling for it making any deep run into the post season. No one is really riding into that last spot with momentum like the Phillies had last year, correct?

Mariners and Rangers really battling it out.

Oh wow, 7 of their last 10 games are against each other. Yeah okay, this will be fun.

The AL wild card is less interesting than the AL West division title; the top three teams are all within half a game of each other.

The NL wild card is the one I’m interested cos I want the Cubs to get it but the Marlins have been surging recently and could get the last one. The Reds are theoretically in it, but no.

AL East title is the one I'm watching.

I dislike the Cubs. I'd be glad if they didn't get in.

You don’t say jimbeux lol. Yep, reds or marlins would be much more interesting. Cubs need another 100+ year curse levelled at them.

Based upon watched dodgers games this year, the marlins looked the most dangerous of that bunch. Their post season history backs up this claim

Jeff mcneil just singlehandedly flushed the marlins down the drain last inning #webgems

I’ll put my main point in the Giants thread as it belongs there, but some startling numbers here:

Run support per 27 outs this season for currently qualified MLB pitchers while they were in the game:

2.9 Logan Webb
3.0 George Kirby
3.1 Braxton Garrett
3.3 Kyle Freeland
3.4 JP Sears
3.4 Kevin Gausman
3.4 Miles Mikolas
3.5 Sonny Gray
3.5 Mitch Keller
3.7 Merrill Kelly
3.8…

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) September 20, 2023

so in 2023, there are 9(!) qualified batters who are hitting .300 or above. in 2003 there were 40.

this season there are only 10(!!) who are hitting above .287(!!!)

(xpost) Gausman being on there won't surprise Jays fans.

surprised Corbin Burnes ain't on there

xp I did know this about him, no wonder he adjusted to Toronto so well after pitching in SF.

Ohtani just falls short of being a qualified hitter I think (500 PA right?) but he was tapering off a bit probably due to playing injured. I think his numbers would have taken a big dent.

Yoshida was over .300 a decent chunk of the season, he could in theory still do it if he starts heating up again but I doubt it, guy’s looked gassed for weeks now.

I'm actually surprised the Jays don't have a couple more starters on that list. Our offense doesn't score for anybody, it seems to me.

so in 2023, there are 9(!) qualified batters who are hitting .300 or above. in 2003 there were 40.

this season there are only 10(!!) who are hitting above .287(!!!)

― omar little, Thursday, September 21, 2023 12:32 PM (twenty-five minutes ago)

Launch Angle baby! (in conjunction with higher average exit velocity/barrels/hard hit%)

Oh they do, the full list didn’t expand but it’s

3.8 José Berríos
3.8 Jesús Luzardo
4.1 Lucas Giolito
4.1 Gerrit Cole
4.2 Johan Oviedo
4.2 Blake Snell
4.2 Dylan Cease
4.2 Patrick Corbin
4.2 Logan Gilbert
4.3 Hunter Brown
4.3 Kodai Senga
4.3 Yusei Kikuchi
4.4 Clarke Schmidt
4.4 Jordan Lyles
4.5 Corbin Burnes
4.5 Framber Valdez
4.5 Chris Bassitt
4.6 Jordan Montgomery
4.6 Max Scherzer
4.6 Brady Singer
4.6 Freddy Peralta
4.6 Pablo López
4.8 Dean Kremer
4.9 Dane Dunning
4.9 Taijuan Walker
5.0 Zac Gallen
5.0 Kyle Bradish
5.0 Zack Wheeler
5.1 Luis Castillo
5.2 Bryce Elder
5.2 Justin Steele
5.3 Aaron Nola
5.4 Lance Lynn
5.6 Spencer Strider
5.7 Charlie Morton
5.7 Zach Eflin
6.2 Kyle Gibson

Emmet Sheehan just pitched a very fun game against the Giants. 5IP, 10SO, 4BB, 0H, 1ER.

Nail biter in his last inning: fly out, SO, HBP, walk, walk, walk. Even though he lost what could have been an absolute gem, can’t be disappointed with some signs of incredible promise. His strikeout stuff was absolutely nasty until that last inning.

Still a no hitter! See what the bullpen can do.

Sorry 9 strikeouts, not 10

My favourite moments in baseball this year is seeing Alex Vesia go full hype after closing out an inning/getting out of a jam. The man absolutely lives for it, so much passion every time

How the fuck did he hit this out

.@MarkVientos_5 is red hot at the dish 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ugewjfSbbT

— New York Mets (@Mets) September 22, 2023

the NL Cy Young race is vv interesting right now. Blake Snell has the lowest ERA and it's not even close. tops in bWAR too. kinda hard for me to say he's been the most dominant pitcher, w/Strider out there, but the latter has a 3.73(!) ERA, so despite the 270 Ks and 18 Ws and being the ace of a contender, that might ding him quite a bit. Steele, Gallen, Webb, and Senga are in the mix, too.

Snell is #6 in NL fWAR which may be yet another example of how flawed the various WAR calcs are.

eg, Wheeler is #1 NL in fWAR and #4 in bWAR.

true!

kinda find it hard to believe Snell would win, but there's no true standout candidate. maybe big zach wheels could pull it off with a strong final couple starts.

but i'd suspect if Strider can bring down that ERA a bit a get to 20 he'll take it.

I can't copy the whole thing, but these are the last four paragraphs from a Posnanski post the other day:

Can you say with any real assurance that Blake Snell, overall, has pitched better than Logan Webb? How much better? Snell might win the Cy Young running away. Webb will likely get little to no support.

Do the same thing with Cole and, say, Sonny Gray. In this case, it’s Cole with more innings — he leads the league with 192 innings pitched. Gray has 174. Cole also leads the league in ERA, and he has a significantly lower WHIP than Gray and a better strikeout-to-walk ratio.

But Gray’s ERA is basically the same (2.84 vs. 2.81), and Gray has his own advantages. He very rarely gives up home runs. In a time when home runs play such a massive role in scoring, being the best in the league at avoiding them (Gray has allowed seven homers all year; Cole has given up 20) is a pretty big deal. Because of that, Gray’s FIP (2.85) almost perfectly aligns with his ERA, while Cole, because he does give up the long ball, has, as mentioned, about a half-run gap.

Again, let me repeat, I’m not saying that Cole and Snell are undeserving of the Cy. They ARE deserving. But so are others. And it’s harder than ever to tell the difference.

This is actually the key paragraph from earlier in the piece:

I bring this up because something pretty dramatic seems to be happening in baseball, Something we’ve all seen building for years and years, and now it’s upon us, or at least upon me: I have no real idea how to value starting pitchers anymore.

I assume he meant evaluate, not value.

I have no opinion/little interest in awards* generally speaking. The Logan Webb mention caught my eye purely because he’s been repeatedly shit on by terrible Giants run support and defending but he’s pitched more innings that anyone else iirc? He pitches pretty deeply into games and if the Giants had a most valuable player this season it was him and it’s not close. That’s important when they basically had two starters all season and a bullpen that’s been…patchy. I guess that’s the point Posnanski makes, what counts as value.

I did feel sorry for Justin Steele when he got lit up the other day. Haven’t watched a single Snell start this season so can’t comment but know people have commented about his high walk rate.

*except Tim Lincecum’s ofc

Cole and Luis Castillo must be two of the most homer friendly aces in the league