the pitch clock is counting down to the MLB 2023 REGULAR SEASON THREAD

Oh no, I wish you’d said prairie oysters then I would have known not to click

it’s the draft coors that’s the real villain of this story

I love the knuckleball, I love every famous knuckleballer (I think...I'm sure one of them has stepped it into it at some point--who can keep track anymore?), so I love this.

https://www.mlb.com/news/knuckleballer-matt-waldron-earns-first-win

Watching Marlins-Braves & observed the rarer reverse commentator jinx- they pointed out Jazz Chisholm had got the Marlins first grand slam of the year last night.

Up he comes, bases loaded no outs, swings at first pitch he sees and gets another.

well, it's coors field, you gotta have a coors! i'm also planning to refinance my mortgage whenever i make it out to loandepot xxp

tbh, so much of american indie craft beer is mediocre to bad (especially lager and pilsners), that sometimes you just want corporate average lager that goes well with fried food!

anyway, finally taking advantage of the fact that i live really close to citifield so caught the reds/mets yesterday. some absolutely hilarious fielding by the reds. disappointed i didn't get to see matt mclain but did get to see some very middling de la cruz at bats and some solid hitting by votto. also, when are they going to make DJ the DH, feels like he's got no business playing RF.

rays are getting a new stadium? https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2023/09/18/stadium-gas-plant-district-2028-tropicana-field-stuart-sternberg/

Josh Donaldson hitting so far in Milwaukee (in a minuscule sample size): lmao what

.308/.471/.615

― ydkb (gyac), Saturday, September 16, 2023 8:13 PM (two days ago) bookmarkflaglink

yea I'm not sure what this is but Milwaukee has a weird history of picking up dudes from the trash heap and having them immediately play like all-stars. Travis Shaw a pretty good recent example. And Mark Canha this year.

Mark Canha has been posting about the local food on his Instagram, so you can credit that

The Hunter Renfroe coefficient of productive hitter/clubhouse cancer

Reds Designate Hunter Renfroe For Assignment https://t.co/4xiC7iLOQC pic.twitter.com/5iXwJSDz7I

— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) September 18, 2023

Wainwright got his 200th tonight, caught the first flight out for Nashville after the game.

Yes! Good for him!

Well, get a load of mega mitt. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/ex1WMK3zBM

— Cut4 (@Cut4) September 17, 2023

Opposite of jumping the gun is this mlb.com piece on Wainwright from last night:

https://www.mlb.com/news/why-it-s-a-big-deal-that-adam-wainwright-got-his-200th-win

The idea that he might be the last 200-game-winner ever (regardless of what you think about pitcher wins) is absurd. Gerrit Cole, for one, is 32 with 143 wins--I'm sure there are a number of active pitchers who should reach 200.

I haven't even completely abandoned the idea that we'll see another 300-game winner; maybe Verlander, maybe somebody else. Odds are against it, I know, but someone would by definition be an exception to the rule to get there, and that does happen in baseball.

Eh I get the article, you can’t count on anything with injuries. Verlander’s velocity was oddly down in his last few starts and has been down a bit from last year too, could be tiredness but his velo being able to hold up has been a big part of his success. Nothing is guaranteed even for the few going that long.

I'll put it this way: I wouldn't bet anything I cared about on 300, but I'd bet anything I have on 200.

Now that I've actually looked at the active wins leaders, I've got to concede that past Cole--who I absolutely think will win 200--it indeed looks dire for even 200. The under-30 leaders are Berrios (29, 83), Márquez (28, 65), Fried (29, 61), Giolito (28, 61), and Urias (26, 60). That is not a promising list, especially in view of the last guy's issues.

good thing you didn’t bet everything you had on that!

I'd still bet a lot on Cole. After that, think I'd be pretty wary for the foreseeable future.

i don’t think verlander will get to 300. being optimistic, he’ll need three more 15-win seasons, and with the way his velocity and peripheral stats are trending that’s a great deal to expect (even on a good team)

He's an extreme longshot for sure--2 or 3%? The only reason I don't totally discount it is he's made it clear it's something he wants to do--i.e., if there's someone who'll pay him, he'll play. So that's the minimum bar he has to clear. And he is, when healthy, still pitching well.

I’ve been laughing at this play for a while

The Rockies practiced this play tirelessly and when they finally rolled it out in a game it worked perfectly! 😂 pic.twitter.com/HPNUKF1COx

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) September 20, 2023

Put Kershaw down as a 2-3% chance at 300 as well. Give him 7 more seasons with the dodgers at his current rate and he gets it I think. I think Kershaw COULD pitch into his 42nd year, I just am not sure if he will want to.

Grienke really killed his chances playing for the royals. If you take the average win total of his non-royals seasons (and minus 2020) and spread it out over his 20 seasons it comes up to 312 wins. Stays above 300 even counting 2020. He only pitched a few innings in 2006, but even minusing that he is still high 290~ wins. Pays to play for winners when you're looking for wins.

Grienke really killed his chances playing for the royals. If you take the average win total of his non-royals seasons (and minus 2020) and spread it out over his 20 seasons it comes up to 312 wins. Stays above 300 even counting 2020. He only pitched a few innings in 2006, but even minusing that he is still high 290~ wins. Pays to play for winners when you're looking for wins.

Pays to play for winners when you're looking for wins.

Good Lord gyac do you really have to? 😮‍💨 thanks for all that information I clearly didn’t know

returning to this as I'm genuinely curious:

I admit they occasionally seem prone to huffing their own sweat and letting their guard down. Or maybe they all take a mental vacation at the same time (losing two to STL last week, losing two to OAK in the first half). Their biggest weakness, SP5, will be camouflaged in the playoffs.

― I Wanna Find an ILXor That'll Flag My Last Post Till I Have To Go (WmC), Monday, September 11, 2023 1:17 PM (one week ago)

ATLs rotation as I understand it is:

SP1 Strider
SP2 Fried?
SP3 Morton?
SP4 Elder

I think the rotation weakness is quite a bit shallower than SP5 iicbch... even if they're scoring 5 runs a game.

Kinda not following that sentence construction, so I'll just say... maybe, maybe not.

Corbin Carroll first rookie with 25 HR/50 SB.

O’s looking to finish with the best record in the AL, and have a shot (2 games back) at best record in baseball. Incredible

They did lose today. Still won this series with the Astros, which is very encouraging. The Rays can (should) pick up a game today.

I believe in the corpse of the angels.

Final three series are pretty evenly stacked between the O’s and the Rays. I think I’m more interested than this race than the one for the final wild card. I don’t see any of those battling for it making any deep run into the post season. No one is really riding into that last spot with momentum like the Phillies had last year, correct?

Mariners and Rangers really battling it out.

Oh wow, 7 of their last 10 games are against each other. Yeah okay, this will be fun.

The AL wild card is less interesting than the AL West division title; the top three teams are all within half a game of each other.

The NL wild card is the one I’m interested cos I want the Cubs to get it but the Marlins have been surging recently and could get the last one. The Reds are theoretically in it, but no.

AL East title is the one I'm watching.

I dislike the Cubs. I'd be glad if they didn't get in.

You don’t say jimbeux lol. Yep, reds or marlins would be much more interesting. Cubs need another 100+ year curse levelled at them.

Based upon watched dodgers games this year, the marlins looked the most dangerous of that bunch. Their post season history backs up this claim

Jeff mcneil just singlehandedly flushed the marlins down the drain last inning #webgems

I’ll put my main point in the Giants thread as it belongs there, but some startling numbers here:

Run support per 27 outs this season for currently qualified MLB pitchers while they were in the game:

2.9 Logan Webb
3.0 George Kirby
3.1 Braxton Garrett
3.3 Kyle Freeland
3.4 JP Sears
3.4 Kevin Gausman
3.4 Miles Mikolas
3.5 Sonny Gray
3.5 Mitch Keller
3.7 Merrill Kelly
3.8…

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) September 20, 2023

so in 2023, there are 9(!) qualified batters who are hitting .300 or above. in 2003 there were 40.

this season there are only 10(!!) who are hitting above .287(!!!)

(xpost) Gausman being on there won't surprise Jays fans.

surprised Corbin Burnes ain't on there

xp I did know this about him, no wonder he adjusted to Toronto so well after pitching in SF.

Ohtani just falls short of being a qualified hitter I think (500 PA right?) but he was tapering off a bit probably due to playing injured. I think his numbers would have taken a big dent.

Yoshida was over .300 a decent chunk of the season, he could in theory still do it if he starts heating up again but I doubt it, guy’s looked gassed for weeks now.

I'm actually surprised the Jays don't have a couple more starters on that list. Our offense doesn't score for anybody, it seems to me.

so in 2023, there are 9(!) qualified batters who are hitting .300 or above. in 2003 there were 40.

this season there are only 10(!!) who are hitting above .287(!!!)

― omar little, Thursday, September 21, 2023 12:32 PM (twenty-five minutes ago)

Launch Angle baby! (in conjunction with higher average exit velocity/barrels/hard hit%)

Oh they do, the full list didn’t expand but it’s

3.8 José Berríos
3.8 Jesús Luzardo
4.1 Lucas Giolito
4.1 Gerrit Cole
4.2 Johan Oviedo
4.2 Blake Snell
4.2 Dylan Cease
4.2 Patrick Corbin
4.2 Logan Gilbert
4.3 Hunter Brown
4.3 Kodai Senga
4.3 Yusei Kikuchi
4.4 Clarke Schmidt
4.4 Jordan Lyles
4.5 Corbin Burnes
4.5 Framber Valdez
4.5 Chris Bassitt
4.6 Jordan Montgomery
4.6 Max Scherzer
4.6 Brady Singer
4.6 Freddy Peralta
4.6 Pablo López
4.8 Dean Kremer
4.9 Dane Dunning
4.9 Taijuan Walker
5.0 Zac Gallen
5.0 Kyle Bradish
5.0 Zack Wheeler
5.1 Luis Castillo
5.2 Bryce Elder
5.2 Justin Steele
5.3 Aaron Nola
5.4 Lance Lynn
5.6 Spencer Strider
5.7 Charlie Morton
5.7 Zach Eflin
6.2 Kyle Gibson

Emmet Sheehan just pitched a very fun game against the Giants. 5IP, 10SO, 4BB, 0H, 1ER.

Nail biter in his last inning: fly out, SO, HBP, walk, walk, walk. Even though he lost what could have been an absolute gem, can’t be disappointed with some signs of incredible promise. His strikeout stuff was absolutely nasty until that last inning.

Still a no hitter! See what the bullpen can do.

Sorry 9 strikeouts, not 10

My favourite moments in baseball this year is seeing Alex Vesia go full hype after closing out an inning/getting out of a jam. The man absolutely lives for it, so much passion every time