shohei ohtani alert

Torn UCL, he's done pitching.

Ah, that's really too bad. I don't know physiology particularly well--I hope he can stay in there as DH.

bryce harper DH’d for the phillies last year on a torn UCL and was DHing for them this year post-surgery before he was cleared to return to the field. so it can be done. the issue is that if it does require surgery ohtani is better off not wasting a month playing out the string for a terrible team

https://undertheknife.substack.com/p/utk-flash-ohtani-elbow-trout-il

Holy shit. He’s already had Tommy John as well.

He’s really been pushing this season. I love Ohtani, but I wondered how he could keep doing these things, but it turns out, he was just running himself into the ground.

tbf all sorts of players run into UCL issues, even normal human players. There is something about pitchers, though. Very hard to keep them healthy.

One month before hitting free agency as well... this injury may cost him well over $100M.

It's really strange that the Angels would let him play in the second game of a double-header after he was removed from the mound in the first. There's no diagnosis at that point--could be anything.

Yeah they have been handling the whole thing very strangely. They just announced Trout is going back on the IL. CJ Wilson was posting about the club’s historical medical issues:

there was no breakfast served at spring training until 2nd week of ST in 2012, and no weight room until 2013. Coming from Texas where fitness was 100% expected, it was shocking how lazy they expected the players to be

— C.J. Wilson (@str8edgeracer) August 24, 2023

It's really strange that the Angels would let him play in the second game of a double-header after he was removed from the mound in the first. There's no diagnosis at that point--could be anything.

― clemenza, Thursday, August 24, 2023 11:06 AM (twenty-one minutes ago)

i probably would've just sat him but i don't think it's that strange. we know you can hit even on a torn UCL.

But my assumption is that the diagnosis was made after the second game, and that at that point they don't know for sure what it is beyond "arm fatigue." And even if they did know, I personally wouldn't put him out there, especially in an essentially meaningless game. If nothing else, he wouldn't mentally be in the right frame of mind knowing he won't pitch again.

The angels are basically the west coast Mets, just a badly run organization Plus loads of bad luck. Generational talents wasted, and increasingly injured and unable to contribute down the stretch.

It's a damn shame, such a great season for ohtani. If he's able to keep hitting the way he has the rest of the way that'll be a decent consolation prize I suppose.

even if he doesn't play at all (hitting/pitching), he'd probably still win MVP, too, but yeah, such a bummer to see him get injured. pitchers will break your heart!

Yeah I don’t think they were ignorant (xps to clemenza), he has been dealing with this fatigue all month and for a while now. I didn’t realise till Steve Shasta said that he hadn’t started in twelve days!

I know I shouldn't be giving it a second thought, that there's a lot more at stake here, but I have been thinking about MVP. If he keeps DH'ing, he'll still win unanimously, I'm sure. If he doesn't, even though I could see a handful of writers dropping him to #2, he still should win easily. No one's even close right now in bWAR, and of the three guys within four games, Seager has also missed significant time, Seager and Semien play for the same team, and the third is Wander Franco. There's also precedent in Josh Hamilton in 2010, who didn't play between Sept. 4 and Oct. 1.

Josh hamilton, another member of the cursed group for the Angels

Ohtani 2023 will go down as a Grand Experiment but if he ever decides back to pitch again (after 2 TJ's) he'll be like Jake deGrom or Chris Sale or Clayton Kershaw... glimmers of greatness between long IL residences. Not sure if whomever he lands with in 2024+ will want to risk that.

i think he's likely to land with one of the owners with bottomless pockets, and they will want to risk it because ohtani the 2-way thing is the key to his legend (and merchandise/PR/attendance). DH-only ohtani is still awesome but it's just different

kinda harsh on Kershaw imo - he has 416 starts, that's 4th among active pitchers, and like 200 more than Sale or deGrom have (257 and 215)

Kershaw is the last of those types of workhorses though IMO? He and Verlander are the freaks, not the other guys. Pitchers are throwing harder, throwing more strikes, and getting Tommy John more regularly. I was looking at the all time strikeouts per nine leaderboard (min 1000 IP), look how many of the guys on it are current pitchers!

https://i.postimg.cc/NFDM0FSH/IMG-8246.jpg

the thing i'd keep in mind is that contract he has been building up to this offseason is predicated on him being a two way player. he'd still get a giant deal, prob the biggest in the game, if he was going to just be a hitter, but the eye-popping american sports record setting contract that was certainly coming requires him to be valued as a two way player. so my guess is that his people will be in no rush to say "yeah it's best if he never pitches again." even if, realistically speaking, that's where this is inevitably headed

personally i think he's too good of a pitcher to just never pitch again -- especially if he was on a team that genuinely had a chance to win the world series he'd be very valuable in a playoff setting. i could see a team coming up w/ a plan to get him enough starts in the regular season to stay sharp but not really pushing him as a SP until the stretch run/playoffs. or just converting him to a lights out 2 inning reliever.

I wonder if he might not sign a deal with an early opt-out - sign a big deal as a hitter, if he shows he can pitch again he opts out and signs a humongous deal as both?

On that photo gallery of strikeout leaders, I think the chronological divide between Koufax/Ryan and everybody else is two decades measured by debut--is Randy Johnson the third on that timeline?

Ah I see y'all are being a bit optimistic with Shohei's pitching future imho.

Which one of you googlers can tell me who has compiled the most WAR *after* two Tommy Johns?

Yeah, full page for reference is here: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/strikeouts_per_nine_career.shtml

Was just looking at Ohtani’s baseball savant page and there’s a very noticeable uptick in the % of breaking pitches he throws, wonder if that had an effect.

Ok here's the full list I have:

Pitcher - date of 2nd TJ
Nathan Eovaldi - 2016
Jameson Taillon - 2019
Daniel Hudson - 2013
Jason Isringhausen - 2008
Chris Capuano - 2008
Joakim Soria - 2012

In recovery from 2nd TJ:
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Walker Buehler

Was just going to post this--maybe your list is gleaned from the same source:

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2020-11-17/padres-second-tommy-john-surgery-mike-clevinger-nathan-eovaldi

Whoops, missed Clev. Ok, here's the "2nd TJ success stories" quick & dirty table:

Post-2nd TJ bWAR/fWAR:

Nathan Eovaldi - 12.0/12.5/ = AVG: 2.0/2.1
Jameson Taillon - 3.0/5.4 = AVG 1.0/1.8
Daniel Hudson - /4.5 = AVG /0.5
Jason Isringhausen - 1.8/-0.6 = AVG 0.2/-0.3
Chris Capuano - 2.6/6.6 = AVG 0.3/0.9
Joakim Soria - 5.8/7.6 = AVG 0.4/0.8

Also to note the obvious: these guys listed above were one-way players and their career depended upon their health only as pitchers.

Ohtani's value prior to this was gauged three-fold: pitcher/fielder/batter.

So it's safe to say Ohtani won't pitch again in 2023 and mostly likely 2024 and will more than likely only be a DH. He could possibly see 1B action as he will not have to make any overhand throws (similar to what Harper's doing now). So basically he's not pitching for at least one year or more, and will be relegated to DH and maybe 1B. This is going to cut his value down massively at the front-end of whatever contract he signs in the offseason.

Also of note, that coming out of high school in 2012 the LA Dodgers (Ohtani's top choice) would only sign Shohei as a one-way player which was more than likely the reason he chose the Nippon Ham Fighters instead of MLB.

just a thought about him playing 1B with a torn UCL...

Could he turn a 3-X-3 double play?

Will defer to the mookieproof on this.

bryce strictly DH'd last year w/ a torn UCL and then came back to play 1B this season before he was cleared for more intensive throwing. i think you *can* throw a ball on a torn UCL it would just hurt a lot & if there is a chance of worsening a non-full you wouldn't want to risk it.

w/ ohtani specifically you also have to consider the angels just called up their first round pick who plays 1B and ohtani is already acclimated to DH, i don't see why he'd step on the field this season if he doesn't sit out altogether

This is also potentially a blow to the game in general. Much as I hate the term--and believe me, I'm not blaming Trout here; I admired the way he shrugged off Manfred's admonishments--and also putting aside my carping about mlb.com's gushing early last year, Shohei has seemed to be more "marketable" than Trout. If he continues as a great hitter but not a pitcher, it just wouldn't be the same.

w/ ohtani specifically you also have to consider the angels just called up their first round pick who plays 1B and ohtani is already acclimated to DH, i don't see why he'd step on the field this season if he doesn't sit out altogether

― J0rdan S., Thursday, August 24, 2023 11:25 AM (eighteen minutes ago)

yeah sorry that scenario was more for whomever signs Ohtani in the offseason for 2024 and beyond.

Serious question: why is it so hard for pitchers to come back after TJ#2? I thought that TJ surgery actually made the arm stronger and more resilient? Obviously there's a long list of pitchers who dominated after TJ. What is it about the second surgery that makes it less successful than the first?

From the article Clem linked above:

“On average, the typical TJ revision isn’t as successful as the typical primary TJ,” Dr. Andrew Cosgarea, an orthopedic surgeon and professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, said Tuesday. “… The first time you drill a hole in the bone it is fresh and clean, but if it happens again you already have a hole there and that hole is filled with scar tissue. … Scar tissue isn’t as healthy as original tissue. It doesn’t have the same blood supply; (it is) not as durable.”

https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-to-keep-hitting-with-ucl-tear

Yet another reminder that the state religion of baseball writers is frequentism. Shohei Ohtani has broken every model yet people are convinced they can forecast his post-injury performance.

Shohei Ohtani has torn his UCL again and here's why that's a good thing...

and here's why that's bad news for the rangers

from the Otani alt thread:

Ohtani's Elbow:

Why would LAA want, or let Ohtani pitch this season after the elbow injury? Is there ANY reasoning behind this?

Jay Jaffe:

The Angels had almost nothing to lose by testing Ohtani's elbow. If he has the surgery now, there's a reasonable shot he can still DH for most/all of next season while not pitching, but if they waited until spring for the surgery, he'd be unable to do either.

Jeff Fletcher, who covers the Angels for the Orange County Register, put it well in a tweet:

"If Ohtani had TJ surgery on June 7, 2018 -- the day the sprain was discovered -- he'd be out till 2020.

"If he has it tomorrow, he'll be out till 2020.

"If he has it a week from now, he'll be out till 2020."

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, September 6, 2018 10:01 AM (four years ago)

re: 2xTJs. Ryu's been back for 4 starts, ERA+ of 226. hope he continues to pitch effectively

the thing i'd keep in mind is that contract he has been building up to this offseason is predicated on him being a two way player. he'd still get a giant deal, prob the biggest in the game, if he was going to just be a hitter, but the eye-popping american sports record setting contract that was certainly coming requires him to be valued as a two way player. so my guess is that his people will be in no rush to say "yeah it's best if he never pitches again." even if, realistically speaking, that's where this is inevitably headed

personally i think he's too good of a pitcher to just never pitch again -- especially if he was on a team that genuinely had a chance to win the world series he'd be very valuable in a playoff setting. i could see a team coming up w/ a plan to get him enough starts in the regular season to stay sharp but not really pushing him as a SP until the stretch run/playoffs. or just converting him to a lights out 2 inning reliever.

― J0rdan S., Thursday, August 24, 2023 12:58 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

yeah I’m sure the salary projections are going to have to be adjusted to account for the fact that he’s probably not throwing 180 innings year in and year out. but I don’t see why he wouldn’t keep pitching, as you said he’s really good at it and it’s not like it’s going to make him a worse hitter.

maybe this seems like the wrong time to bring this up but I also don’t really understand why he doesn’t play the field. the injury risk in right field or first base or whatever is minimal and if you really want to talk about the value of opening up a roster spot, why not let someone else DH who otherwise couldn’t add value in the field

should point out I didn’t read the posts that followed that one which mention him playing the field — for the record I was referring to before the injury and in a year or so once he’s recovered, I doubt it would be smart to do it any time in the next 12 months

Before the injury? I might be overthinking it but he wants to pitch. That’s really it. I could see him doing it until his arm falls off, honestly, it seems that important to him. He considers both aspects of his game to be so deeply important that he didn’t sign with an NL team, he calls his own game, and he has eight different pitches that he uses.

Jesus Christ

Of note: Angels GM Perry Minasian said that despite Ohtani suffering from cramping and arm fatigue that caused him to push back starts during this season, the team didn't do any related imaging on his arm until this past week.

— Laura Albanese (@AlbaneseLaura) August 25, 2023

When will the angels change?

That's incredible.

Don’t ask don’t tell generational talent edition