To What Extent Does Your Life Revolve Around Alejandro Kirk? (The 2023 Blue Jays Thread)

It was actually a terrible call by the third base coach Febles, he waved Maguire home cos he thought that ball was gone. Cora confirmed it after. But yeah, clownshow stuff from the Red Sox. At least Springer is out of that slump now.

The Jays' announcers said the same after seeing the reply, that the coach was sending him home. Here's the play if anyone hasn't seen it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPPL7NLr4dA

The guy narrating that clip says the coach was signaling to the runner on first, not waving McGuire.

McGuire, who represented the tying run, rounded the third base bag instead of holding up between second and third base to see if Kiermaier would catch it or not. Red Sox third base coach Carlos Febles, meanwhile, had his eyes on Luis Urías, the runner at first base, who represented the winning run.

“I think we all missed that one,” Cora said. “I think Reese took off and then Carlos was looking at Urías. Everybody thought it was going to be off the wall and it was a bad play — a bad baseball play.”

…
Cora said he thought Wong homered when the ball left the bat. Wong connected on a slider from Erik Swanson who had given up three straight singles with one out.

“We all thought it was gone,” Cora said. “Reese from the get-go. I was just talking to him. He thought it was gone. And then Carlos, he was looking at Urías. He just missed that one.”

pic.twitter.com/23vEp3YZlp

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) August 5, 2023

I don't think the pitcher thought it was gone, his job is to back up third or home depending on how the play develops. He walked in the direction of third until he knew where he needed to be.

The third base coach's actions were inexcusable though, if he was signaling to the runner on first, then he had plenty of time to correct it before McGuire passed him, and he didn't.

Yeah that might be a misread on my part re the pitcher cos to me it looked as though his head was down but yeah, the coach absolutely fucked up there. Plenty of blame to go round.

Davis “Vuk” “Babe” “Moustache” Schneider, drafted 849th, became the only player with 9 hits and 2 hrs in his first 3 games.

Guy’s injected this team with some much-needed energy after Bichette’s injury and a thoroughly deflating Baltimore series.

I get that you guys are very happy about him and that’s great but Belt personally remains my favourite 🥰 I will always love him!

"Oh my god, can I take my base now, I'm scared"

- Brandon Belt pic.twitter.com/WQs0TGDYol

— Brennan Delaney (@Brennan_L_D) August 6, 2023

(Seriously, great debut for Schneider).

Schneider's something else. Don't know long it will last (the just-being-good part; I expect the hitting-.800-part will end in a few minutes), but I hope he's got some of these guys looking over their shoulders.

Meaningless, I know, but this is kind of funny:

Vladdy - 109 games, 1.0 bWAR
Schneider - 3 games, 0.6 bWAR

I figured out why that made me laugh. Less to do with Vladdy and more do to with the fact that Schneider is pretty much exactly the kind of guy they had in mind when the idea of "replacement player" was developed. You're essentially saying he's worth an extra 0.6 wins above what you'd get if you replaced him with...Davis Schneider.

hadn't realized how quiet a season vlad is having. fangraphs likes him even less (0.3 fWAR, jeez)

still gonna finish his age-24 season with 700+ hits and 130+ homers tho

He's an enigma. I don't think anyone has figured out whether he's 2021 Vlad or 2019/20/22/23 Vlad. The concerning part is that those four seasons, two on each side, are all quite similar, clearly pointing you in one direction for the answer.

His slash line ranges for the other four seasons:

BA: .262-.274
OBP: .329-.339 (three of the seasons are exactly .339)
SLG: .433-.480

Not a lot of variance there. It's like four seasons of Nick Castellanos, one season of Manny Ramirez.

he still doesn't strike out much (relatively speaking)

i'm in awe of his line-drive homers but it kinda seems like, in general, he needs more launch?

i want him to rule

Its gotta be that tiny park in Buffalo they played at "home" during COVID.

That definitely helped, looking at his splits in 2020/21.

Kikuchi's got the lowest second-half ERA in both leagues at 1.24 (five starts). It has to be too good to last.

I'm sure I'm not the only person thinking this: they'd have a better lineup offensively if they play him on Saturday.

https://ca.yahoo.com/sports/news/jose-bautista-signing-one-day-contract-to-retire-with-blue-jays-121027733.html

Manoah optioned again.

I'm laughing, because I'm wondering if they had to do that to make room for Bautista...More seriously, I'm glad. It's so clear he's not ready to return, and they're fighting for a playoff spot.

I still think it was irresponsible to bring him back so early, he was effectively wild in a couple of starts but still not really near his best.

I wouldn't go quite that far--and I think most teams vying for a playoff spot would have crossed their fingers and done the same (if you're guaranteed to be in or out of the playoffs, maybe a different story). I know, Taylor Ward--which could easily have happened to the Manoah of last year, or to anybody on the mound. His six starts have been a mixed bag: four game scores in the 52-66 range (pretty good: ERA, 3.22), two poor.

I don’t blame Manoah for Ward at all. I just think something like that happening to a young player who’s had the kind of year he has had can be a more damaging experience than to any other pitcher and that’s why I don’t think he should have come back so soon. The mechanics look off but the mental approach is messy too.

Agree with all of that, I guess our difference is semantics. I'd say the Jays made a poor decision: "irresponsible," for me, is more like the Yankees and Rizzo.

If it turns out the Jays have known about some physical issue and brought him back anyway, I'd definitely move to irresponsible. When I wrote to James about Manoah a couple of months ago, part of his answer was "Your assumption that there is no underlying health issue seems very questionable to me. I would suggest that there almost certainly IS an underlying health issue; we just don't know what it is yet."

Oh yeah I take that point. I’m sympathetic cos I hadn’t realised how young he is and it’s not great to watch, you know? Maybe better semantically to say that the organisation didn’t handle him well.

It’s really difficult to guess as an observer but I always think that the mental aspect is such a huge part of the game - pitcher has the odds in their favour but they still have to believe that they’ll get guys out every time they step out on the mound. If the stuff isn’t doing what it used to for whatever reason, then that’s where you adjust and it might have been better for him to stay down in Florida longer doing that away from public view.

I’ve watched a few Manoah starts, maybe seven?, this season; the one I keep remembering is his first one in Boston in May. He was doing pretty well beginning the 4th inning, had only given up one hit and one walk with no runs, then there was a throwing error with one out in the inning, he started throwing wild, ended up giving up five runs between the fourth and fifth inning. Only two of those runs were actually earned; the other three were all attributable to throwing/fielding errors. Just couldn’t dig himself out of it.

You have watched him a lot more so you can say if the above was characteristic of him last season but it’s all interlinked ofc; highly probable that if he’s injured or mechanics are off it strongly affects his mental game.

His mental game is shot right now (made worse, of course, by the Ward injury). It's a chicken-and-egg thing, and I don't know the answer: did his confidence or his command vacate him first? His very first start of the season, he blew a 4-0 lead, I think.

First start: Jays jumped out 3-0 in the top of the 1st, then 3-1, then 4-1, then gave up 2 and then 2 more--he couldn't get out of the fourth inning.

Seemed obvious to me in that opener that he was working against the clock in a big way. the clock+mechanics+mental+injury(?) variables are maybe just all lining up, because he looks nothing at all like his old self. of course he always tended to lose that 2Seamer up armside (racking up HBPs), and often famously lost his cool. he shouldn't be up here. we've got a serviceable Ryu now, so

racking up HBPs

Led the league last year, and I suppose, if harnessed properly, that was a small part of his success. But after the Ward injury--undergoing reconstructive surgery right now--I could see where that could mess him up permanently.

Small factor in his success, I should have said...you know what I mean: Bob Gibson, Nolan Ryan, effectively wild.

It's so exhausting to root for a team that constantly falls behind in the early innings.

I already have next year's thread title: Alek Manoah, Where Have You Gone You Gorgeous Squeezy Thing?

Big ceremony for Bautista today as they put his name up on the "Wall of Excellence" (from which Alomar's was taken down last year). Lots of people and video footage from 2015, of course--seems almost as ancient as the two WS teams. Justin Smoak? Ryan Goins? Who are these guys? Stroman spoke in the video tribute two or three times; I completely forgot about him being in the other dugout today till he popped out at one point. Edwin got the second-biggest reception--him or Gibbons--and he'll be next. (Probably Gibbons too.) I really wish they'd put Henke up--this continues to baffle me.

Meanwhile, Jays made it all the way to the 4th inning today before falling behind 4-1.

Time for a break.

I do have to complain about one thing. (Plus I'm at Tuesday's game, so it wouldn't be much of a break anyway.) MLB.com has front-page stories on ceremonies today for Fernando and for Felix Hernandez, but, unless I'm missing it, nothing on Bautista.

Gibbons is not getting put up on the Level of Excellence.

Watching the ceremony yesterday, I realized that there aren't any Cal Ripken Jr. types in the LOE, that is, HOF (or Hall of Very Good) talents who spent 10-15 or more years with the team as a franchise player. Even the 80's and 90's guys had 6-7 year runs at most and tended to move on, not unlike Bautista. Is it because the Jays have been stingy on the free agent market? I can't think of a single superstar Jays player who was signed to a significant extension in their prime. Perhaps Stieb is the only exception?

Delgado? Because of the immense goodwill to anybody connected to 2015, I could easily see Gibbons going up there; he's second to Gaston in games and wins. Would you put Henke up?

Martinez obviously, probably Howarth too.

Delgado was a regular for nine years, about the same as Bautista. Vernon Wells got the mega-extension in his prime, and we know how that turned out.

My Keltner-list type criteria for the LOE would include: can you write a concise team history without mentioning him? If so, then he's not on the LOE. Was he ever the best player on the team? Did he factor (positively) into a number of pennant races and playoff runs? And so on. I don't think Henke or Gibbons make the cut.

At some point today, I will marshal some numbers and make my case for Henke.

The best relievers in the game during Henke's '85-92 Jays window:

Pitcher       ERA       FIP       WHIP       K/BB       Saves       WAR
Henke         2.48      2.53      1.025      3.88        217        16.8
Reardon       3.51      3.65      1.169      2.88        271         9.4
Smith         2.89      2.65      1.236      2.90        275        15.9
Franco        2.47      3.15      1.259      1.93        222        14.2
Thigpen       3.09      3.99      1.308      1.62        200         8.7

(Thigpen's rookie year is '86.) To me, unless you're fixated on saves, Henke is the best in that group, a little ahead of both Franco and Smith. The complicating factor is that Eckersley isn't converted to a closer until 1987, and then from '88 to '92 he redefines the job. Eckersley for '87-92:

Eckersley     2.18      2.21      0.844      8.93        236        15.5

So: Henke is either the best reliever in the game if you require the full eight-year stretch, or the second-best if you loosen that. He was, I'd say, absolutely the final piece of the puzzle in getting the Jays to the finish line in '85; finding a closer was an ongoing nightmare in '83 and '84. He was still the closer in '92, when they won their first WS (even though he couldn't close out G6, he had a decent WS). He had a rough ALCS in '85, was dominant in his other three ALCS's (didn't give up a run in 10 IP).

Was he ever the best player on the team? Probably not, but he's boxed in a bit by his position there--he was pretty great in '89-90. Did he factor (positively) into a number of pennant races and playoff runs? Definitely--in seven of his eight years in Toronto, the Jays either won the division (four times) or finished 2.0 games out (three times) in all but one season.

To this day, he's still the best closer they ever had.

You make some good arguments, so I'll respond with the full Keltner List, adapted for Henke/LOE. This isn't a putdown of Henke, I remember his arrival in '85 and the way he was celebrated as a folk hero by becoming the shutdown closer the team never had. OTOH, he never shows up in video clips of all-time great Jays moments. You don't see clips of him shutting down the Braves to win the 1992 WS because he blew the save in G6 to send the game to extras. I'm not saying he wasn't very good at what he did, but let's hold him up to the standard:

Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

No. He picked up some downballot MVP votes, but never a CY vote.

Was he the best player on his team?

No, and in many of his years with the Jays, he wasn't even the best relief pitcher on his team, mostly because he didn't pitch many innings. Mark Eichhorn had an all-time great relief season in 1986, and Duane Ward had some outstanding seasons as Henke's setup man, throwing 100+ IP each year with K totals that would be elite even today. Ward also took over the closer's job in 1993 and arguably had a better season than Henke ever did.

Was he the best player in baseball (or in the league) at his position?

No, and once again, his prime overlapped with the peak of overrated closer mania, when CY awards and votes were being handed out like candy every year. And he never earned a single CY vote.

Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Yes, he was a consistently good to great closer during the best sustained run of success the Jays ever had.

Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

Yes, and he retired having hardly lost a step. Consistency is a big plus in his favour.

Is he the very best player in Jays history who is not in the LOE?

There's Encarnacion, possibly Donaldson (nearly as many WAR in four years as Henke, plus an MVP), and perhaps 2-3 of the guys currently on the team when all is said and done.

Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the LOE?

The only pitchers in the LOE are Halladay and Stieb, who are obviously on another level.

Do the players numbers meet LOE standards?

Tough to say because it's not a big sample of players, but everybody in the LOE either a) won a major award with the team, or b) won multiple divisions/pennants with the team, or c) featured in all-time great moments. Henke was a key player on a lot of winning teams, but would they have won without him? Again, they had many great relievers over the years who could have done the job. And I still maintain that you can tell the history of the franchise without mentioning his name. It's impossible to talk about the Jays without mentioning Delgado, Bautista, Halladay, etc.

Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

I think the statistics tell a fair story. Clem's comparison to other closers is revealing but by picking arbitrary start and end points, it leaves out Eck and other closers who did more to define the role.

Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the LOE but not in?

By these criteria, yes.

How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

The likes of Steve Bedrosian won the CY because he racked up 40 saves, which was a hallowed number in those days. If that's the CY/MVP standard, then Henke was there, but I think these days we tend to laugh at those awards.

How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the LOE?

Henke was selected to one All-Star Team while with the Jays. Yes, in those days they didn't stack the ASG rosters with middle relievers like they do today. But the superstar relievers did make the teams, Quisenberry was chosen in three straight years, Eck in five straight years, etc.

If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

No. Closers play a limited role, but that's kind of the point, isn't it?

What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

He was very good for over a decade (eight years with the Jays) but didn't redefine the position or anything.

Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the LOE, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

He was a class act and a solid hand, no doubt.

To clarify on the 40 saves deal: Henke never saved 40 with the Jays. But obviously in terms of value (WAR, every day dominance), at his best he was as good as the guys winning the CY's. But because he never hit that magic number, he didn't get CY support, which is of course stupid. So if the question is, was he good enough to win major awards, compared with the performances of other contemporary closers, then yes, he had some CY-type seasons.

But the voters were dumber back then.

Fair points, and as the Jays post-game show guys said yesterday, the team has never gone back into the past to reevaluate someone--you either go up when your time comes or you don't. Just a couple of quibbles though. The end-points I picked weren't really arbitrary; that's when Henke was a Jay. Just about any comparison you do is going to be arbitrary in that sense--calendars rarely line up. And I tried to be up-front about Eckersley, rather than sneakily omitting him. (As far as the stats I chose, those six seem pretty basic to a closer--would you have gone with something different?) I'd also say--and you kind of acknowledge this--that two questions on the Keltner Test, the two that are connected to the idea of being the best player on your team, are hard to apply to closers. I'm not even sure Mariano was ever the best player on the Yankees--how could he be?

I think Henke never getting a Cy Young vote (something I pointed out in a "Hey Bill" once, I think about the greatest retirement-seasons ever; Henke's is among them) is so silly when guys like Bedrosian and Mark Davis were actually winning.