2022-23 Hot Stove thread

40 years old, but weird how he just took a nosedive with the Rays; he was having another great season up to that point.

was he injured last year? a decline is to be expected, but after posting an ISO above .200 for 14 straight years, it crashed to .103 in 2022.

betting against Cruz at this point is possibly a bad idea, and i would actually root for him to get to 500 HR, but it's gonna be a tough road i think.

he could have just hit a wall similar to the one sheffield hit in 2007 w/the tigers (seriously check out the first and second half splits for him that year, it's mind-boggling.)

“One thing I learned throughout the whole process is that doctors have differences of opinions. I had a lot of doctors tell me that I was fine, some doctors that said it wasn't so fine."

- Carlos Correa pic.twitter.com/ubgYRzgvOY

— SNY (@SNYtv) January 11, 2023

Carlos Correa was "very surprised" that the Giants, and then the Mets, balked at signing him to a deal: pic.twitter.com/neRfmhdjma

— SNY (@SNYtv) January 11, 2023

When the Twins traded him, he was at .294/.370/.537; then .226/.283/.442 with Tampa. (I did notice in his game log he had been in a two-week slump before the trade, so maybe the Twins were on to something.)

Posnanski's theory (about which I have no opinion whatsoever):

My guess — and it’s entirely a guess — is that the Giants and Mets did see something troubling in the physical report, but that really they were feeling buyer’s remorse. The Giants’ interest in Correa seemed relatively tame; they REALLY wanted Judge. They REALLY wanted Turner. I get the sense that Correa felt a bit like a door prize to them — a $350 million door prize — and when they saw a distressing medical report, they saw a way out.

The Mets are a little bit harder to explain, but again, as a guess — Correa’s signing seemed a rash impulse buy from Cohen, not unlike Elon Musk and Twitter. It happened so incredibly fast (and while Cohen was on vacation in Hawaii), and I think when morning came, Cohen was like: “Wait a minute, what have I done here?” When the medical report popped up the way it did, I think Cohen was like: “OK, I still want him, but only on our terms.”

And then Minnesota swooped back in because the Twins REALLY want him.

It’s no surprise that his physical in Minnesota was fine.

That's complete BS. We're supposed to believe that this "buyer's remorse" -- which apparently has never happened ever in 50 years of baseball free agency, spanning who knows how many overpriced players -- happened twice in less than a month?

after the DFA last week, Bauer was unconditionally released today. so if he's going to sign with a MLB team, i suppose we'll find out soon.

The Yankees and Mets have no plans to pursue Bauer, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Padres are also uninterested, per Bryce Miller of the San Diego Union-Tribune, and the same goes for the Guardians, per Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets that the Twins also have no plans to speak with Bauer.

i imagine he might go overseas

(xpost) I'm sure buyer's remorse is not unprecedented, but unless there's something tangible to hang it on, we'd never hear about it. I'm not saying he's right, but I don't find it utterly implausible--no more than any other theory as to why two teams deemed him a physical risk and a third team didn't.

The third deal was for half the number of years.

You’d also imagine there’s legal constraints on “buyer’s remorse” given that these are extremely public deals with repercussions for reputations for both clubs and players.

(xpost) I know, but if the physical issue is an immediate and present danger, it's not like the Twins will get six years of service. Anyway, I really don't know what happened. I thought the theory was interesting, and as valid as anything else I've read on the matter.

(xpost) If the Giants and Mets said publically "We're second-guessing ourselves here," sure. But this gray area on the physical gave them opening--I think that was his point. ("My guess — and it’s entirely a guess — is that the Giants and Mets did see something troubling in the physical report...)

https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/z/resonance-tuning-fork-which-reflects-vibration-one-tuning-fork-struck-other-tuning-fork-will-also-vibrate-217563806.jpg

Am I Tuning Fork A, Tuning Fork B, or those pretty blue and green lines?

Neither!

yeah there's no way either the giants or mets would cross scott boras over a non issue medical so i'm not really sure what posnanski is on about

seems fairly obvious to me that the giants and mets have the ability to be in every free agent conversation and can afford to pass on a player of correa's caliber if the medicals worry them whereas the twins are rarely in free agent conversations and thus have more incentive to accept the risk of the medicals

That's what I was thinking. Twins really aren't going to get someone of his caliber normally in free agency.

pos just going on feelings there; that's true blogging

perhaps not entirely unlike his biography of joe paterno

Last thing I'll say, because it's not that big a deal. Posnanski has things to lose too when he posts; he's coming off a hugely successful baseball book (a rather pricey book that made the Times bestseller list and won awards), with the follow-up set for release in a few months. I don't think it's in his best interest to send wild conspiracy theories out into the world. I just took it as an attempt to make sense of a bizarre story.

I also did see the Giants or Mets getting cold feet. There has to be something up with his ankle as he only ended up with a six year guarantee.

Do NOT

I'm breaking my promise not to say anything more...Posnanski's not treating the two things as mutually exclusive: "...and when they saw a distressing medical report, they saw a way out." They can publically acknowledge one of those two things--the distressing medical report--the other they would never, for reasons you all mention, so we can only guess.

I.e., maybe what he's saying is just painfully obvious: they saw a distressing medical report and got cold feet/a case of buyer's remorse.

i don't think it's a big deal either . . . but!

much like matt yglesias, he's now a substack blogger. people pay him and expect him to hold forth on the issues of the day, even if he has no particular knowledge of them.

as a well-connected sportswriter, he might have done some actual reporting on the matter? but instead, perhaps due to the demands of producing content for his subscribers, he's just making guesses. his guesses are probably better than ours, but that's a pretty low bar

my understanding is that posnanski has been completely up his own ass for years so guessing is probably all he's capable of

Did you read The Baseball 100?

Can't recommend it enough, although obviously you're not going to read an 800-page book if that's your frame of reference.

i have delved into portions of the baseball 100 and i think it's great and fun and have recommended it to people. it also has zero to do with carlos correa

my understanding is that posnanski has been completely up his own ass for years so guessing is probably all he's capable of

Seeing as The Baseball 100 was published within the past year, there does seem to be a vague connection between that comment and the book.

Serenity now.

how many active players are profiled in the 100? (i believe the answer is three)

his ability to make baseball history come alive, which i very much appreciate, has, again, nothing to do with his random unreported guesses about carlos correa's contract negotiations

Which we were talking about, yes, until it became a referendum on Joe Posnanski. I think he's a great writer, so if people say what I think are silly things about him, I'm going to defend him. And the comment I was responding to suggested he's been terrible for years.

i mean 'he wrote beautifully about willie mays' doesn't mean 'he fathoms the depths of steve cohen's mind'

xp ok

I think what bothers me is the way you and others are trying to frame what he wrote. 1) The idea that he ignores the legitimate concerns the Giants and Mets had. He doesn't--he very specifically refers to the "distressing medical report(s)" they saw, more than once I think. 2) The idea that he passes the blog post off as "fathoming the depths of Steve Cohen's mind." Pretty sure he really emphasizes that he's only guessing. As to whether he should be doing that or reporting, well, I'm going to guess he knows his audience a lot better than you do. I pay for the blog. If he were doing dry reporting that I can get dozens of other places, I wouldn't bother. He's a writer. Writers speculate.

he's only guessing

indeed

Jesus, he writes a blog! If you know he's guessing, and I know he's guessing, and he knows--and says--he's guessing, explain to me again what we're arguing about, and how this one column is emblematic of what a bad baseball writer he is. Are you saying that, coming out of this amazing story, he shouldn't be writing about it unless he has some hard, verifiably true inside information? That isn't what he does.

Maybe I should have led with a disclaimer: "This is only Joe's Posnanski's opinion. He's only guessing. He'll say that three times, but I want to make sure you know."

maybe i should have bolded indeed

fwiw i have literally met joe posnanski; he was very briefly a colleague and seemed like a nice guy.

anyway i know you feel like i'm picking on you, and i wish you didn't feel that way, because i don't mean it that way and i truly enjoy your posts. (contrast this conversation with basically any interaction i have with user table.) i just think you are being overly protective of pos in a situation in which he doesn't really deserve it

That's great that you've met him. If it's not too personal, what do you mean by colleague? You actually worked together in some fashion? (I know this isn't the right thread...answer that, and we can drop the matter.)

(Yes, I do get defensive with certain writers. I go through the same thing with--obviously--James, also Marcus, Kael, and, to a lesser extent, Christgau.)

he briefly worked for 'sports on earth' (as did emma span, who is now a Major Editor at the athletic, and also jay jaffe's wife) which was at that time under the MLB umbrella

there were so many brief stabs at relevance! at least none of those i was involved with included betting odds, i guess?

Interesting...don't even get me started on professional sports' new love affair with gambling.

Zaidi said SF checked in with Correa when Mets deal fell apart. Said he doesn't feel vindicated by a second failed physical & called whole situation "unfortunate." Zaidi: "I'm happy for Carlos, he's one of the great players in the game. He seems happy with where he's going."

— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) January 12, 2023

Zaidi is playing it close to the vest and won't leak anything, respect that. I do wonder what they offered after the fact.

Interesting...don't even get me started on professional sports' new love affair with gambling.

I agree, I'm not a gambler and hate this trend. MLB Network is almost unwatchable with all its gambling aspects on it.

Whereas for me, trying to watch football matches when like 90% of teams have shirts sponsored by betting companies and there are constant ads - baseball is almost refreshing in comparison.