2022-23 Hot Stove thread

Was not expecting that one

Correa back to the Twins haha wtf

Star shortstop Carlos Correa and the Minnesota Twins are finalizing a six-year, $200 million contract, pending a physical, after weeks of discussion to salvage a deal with the New York Mets broke down, sources familiar with the situation told ESPN.

The stunning turn caps a whirlwind month for Correa, who agreed to a 13-year, $350 million contract with the San Francisco Giants on Dec. 13. After the Giants raised concerns about Correa's surgically repaired right leg, he pivoted quickly to the Mets, who offered him a 12-year, $315 million contract. The Mets flagged his physical as well, and efforts to amend the deal fell apart, leading Correa back to Minnesota, where he signed after a topsy-turvy offseason last year, too.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35419701/sources-carlos-correa-finalizing-twins-mets-talks-fizzle

More money for less work than the other offers, you have to tip your cap really. And he doesn’t have to bother packing!

Wait a second, I was too fast to say that

pending a physical

$33.3M AAV for those first 6 years, and the unreliable jon heyman adds that there are a series of vesting options that could add another 4 years and $70M onto the contract, if reached.

the gigantic, bad idea giants offer was about $27M AAV, and the mets offer was about $26.25M AAV

WTF, shocked but expected.

Glad it'll be MN (probably), aside from the drama Correa going to NYM to play 3B for 13 years is just the most boring outcome

Well Correa's 13 year and 12 year deals have fallen apart. Not sure if the Twins 10 year deal is still on the table but right now I don't think any team should sign him for more than six years. IMO, the Giants did the right thing by pulling that contract despite what Giants fans think. Spending wisely is way more important even if it puts them behind yet another year.

― Bee OK, Saturday, January 7, 2023 3:58

Called it, at least for the amount of guaranteed years.

Curious how Twins fans will react: "Welcome back" or "Wow, you really did your damnedest to get out of here, didn't you?"

If they win then it won't matter.

Why didn't (or couldn't) the Mets or Giants turn around and try to negotiate a shorter deal?

it's not like correa walked away from the twins for less money... they initially offered $285m and he had at least two offers of $300m+. i'm sure the fans will understand

Why didn't (or couldn't) the Mets or Giants turn around and try to negotiate a shorter deal?

it certainly seems like this was happening w/ the mets. i'd be curious to hear what their offer was... i wouldn't be shocked if he turned down like 3/120 or something from the mets based on the verlander and scherzer contract. but i think we're free to assume that this twins offer had the best combo of AAV and length of deal.

If they win and/or he plays at an All-Star level, agree, they'll forget immediately. If he gets off to a bad start, I can see them being brutal. If he gets hurt, well, he won't be there to hear it.

The Giants never got a chance as Bores ran to the Mets immediately.

Heyman adds that the Mets offered a guaranteed six years at $157.5MM — half the original term of their original offer.

Xpost

The Twins (I think) were reported as saying when the initial hitch came up with the Giants that they hadn’t examined Correa thoroughly since the beginning of the season so anything that the Giants and the Mets balked from wasn’t necessarily known to them. I’m really interested in how this physical goes.

If he gets off to a bad start, I can see them being brutal.

yeah but this happens when you're a high priced FA regardless of whether you flirted w/ other teams or not

I'm officially proclaiming Carlos Correa the wildest free-agent saga ever.

One team scheduled a press conference.

A second team's owner talked about why they needed him - on the record.

And he didn't end up signing with either team!

There's never been anything quite like it

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) January 10, 2023

Definitely the wildest thing I remember since Charlie Finley tried to sell off Vida Blue, Rollie Fingers, and Joe Rudi midway through the '76 season.

(xpost) Sometimes, but I don't think always. I'd have to give it some thought, but I think I remember Jays' fans being patient with certain FAs who started slow. Maybe it's a given in New York...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmILgLJaYAQw4y_?format=png&name=240x240

They should just let him skip the presser if he passes the physical and resigns. “Of course, I always wanted to stay with the Twins…”

I'm really curious to know what the Twins know (or think they know) such that they're willing to spend $200M on a player with tuning forks for legs who has already failed two physicals.

looks like the vesting options are all based on 502+ PAs in the previous season:

If the deal is finalized, Correa will receive an $8MM signing bonus (paid out between 2023 and 2024) and annual salaries of $36MM in 2023-25, $31.5MM in 2026, $30.5MM in 2027 and $30MM in 2028. The vesting options are valued at $25MM (2029), $20MM (2030), $15MM (2031) and $10MM (2032) and each become guaranteed if Correa reaches 502 plate appearances in the preceding season.

those vesting options are kind of interesting, because there's no opt-out, right? if Correa gets 502+ PAs during the 2031 season (his age 36 season), this forces him to take a $10M salary for 2032. i'd assume $/WAR will be at least $10M by then, so if he's capable of producing more than 1 WAR he'll be forced into taking a very team-friendly deal for that final season. something tells me he'll either be injured or will find a way to be injured in 2031, heh

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35420485/red-sox-trevor-story-elbow-surgery-miss

jeez

lol ok

Carlos Correa to the Twins is done. Physical passed. Deal official.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 11, 2023

This feels like the Twins being a small market team unlikely to land a player as good as Correa in free agency, so maybe willing to cross their fingers.

I honestly wonder where correa’s head is at now, like if he’s going to be a good vibes teammate after missing out on SF and NY and going through a pretty humiliating free agency and returning to MN on a deal that is less than their initial offer. It’s a really strange situation for all parties.

I dont think correa is a headcase in the way that (remember a guy here) needs to be thought of as the biggest swingin dick in the room

Pretty sure he won’t be some kind of major weirdo, it’s just such a singular kind of thing. MN actually seems like generally a good vibes squad so it probably is the best place to come back to.

He can just blame Boras tbh

he did get more per year on this deal than he would have w/ the twins initial offer... he should be fairly happy w/ how this played out & frankly it seems like the twins really did him a solid at best or were reckless out of some sense of desperation at worst. which isn't to say it wasn't a humiliating process but it's not like he's back there on a 1/15 contract or something

Also one thing I expect is that twins fans were probably fully expecting him to be gone and now that he’s back they’ve got to be pretty happy. Also seems likely that this was the best he was going to get, though I’m wondering why no other team matched the twins here.

Honestly, two different clubs having concerns about the physical and the duration of all this dragging on probably spooked them.

Padres signed Nelson Cruz. Not sure there's much left there, but if he surprises, he may get another season out of it and 500 HR...5-10%?

382 since his age-30 season. If you could combine that with Ken Griffey Jr. 19-30 (438), you'd have 820 HR and the record.

298 if you want to do that the other way around.

Honestly, two different clubs having concerns about the physical and the duration of all this dragging on probably spooked them.

― bit high, bitch (gyac), Wednesday, January 11, 2023 11:29 AM (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah true just kinda surprised there wasn't a third suitor beyond NY and SF but Boras maybe advised him that the direction it was trending was not great, and another troublesome physical with another team might make everything worse, so may as well revisit Minny. at least the six years plus incentives could wind up as the long-term one he was seeking.

298 if you want to do that the other way around--hadn't considered that! You get either Barry Bonds+ or Steve Finley-.

I'm thinking Nelson Cruz isn't gonna surprise anyone this season, he started to decline upon arrival in Tampa in 2021. Might be a useful plug-in power bat but i kinda anticipate a season more in line w/the worst of Pujols' late Angels period.

40 years old, but weird how he just took a nosedive with the Rays; he was having another great season up to that point.

was he injured last year? a decline is to be expected, but after posting an ISO above .200 for 14 straight years, it crashed to .103 in 2022.

betting against Cruz at this point is possibly a bad idea, and i would actually root for him to get to 500 HR, but it's gonna be a tough road i think.

he could have just hit a wall similar to the one sheffield hit in 2007 w/the tigers (seriously check out the first and second half splits for him that year, it's mind-boggling.)

“One thing I learned throughout the whole process is that doctors have differences of opinions. I had a lot of doctors tell me that I was fine, some doctors that said it wasn't so fine."

- Carlos Correa pic.twitter.com/ubgYRzgvOY

— SNY (@SNYtv) January 11, 2023

Carlos Correa was "very surprised" that the Giants, and then the Mets, balked at signing him to a deal: pic.twitter.com/neRfmhdjma

— SNY (@SNYtv) January 11, 2023

When the Twins traded him, he was at .294/.370/.537; then .226/.283/.442 with Tampa. (I did notice in his game log he had been in a two-week slump before the trade, so maybe the Twins were on to something.)

Posnanski's theory (about which I have no opinion whatsoever):

My guess — and it’s entirely a guess — is that the Giants and Mets did see something troubling in the physical report, but that really they were feeling buyer’s remorse. The Giants’ interest in Correa seemed relatively tame; they REALLY wanted Judge. They REALLY wanted Turner. I get the sense that Correa felt a bit like a door prize to them — a $350 million door prize — and when they saw a distressing medical report, they saw a way out.

The Mets are a little bit harder to explain, but again, as a guess — Correa’s signing seemed a rash impulse buy from Cohen, not unlike Elon Musk and Twitter. It happened so incredibly fast (and while Cohen was on vacation in Hawaii), and I think when morning came, Cohen was like: “Wait a minute, what have I done here?” When the medical report popped up the way it did, I think Cohen was like: “OK, I still want him, but only on our terms.”

And then Minnesota swooped back in because the Twins REALLY want him.

It’s no surprise that his physical in Minnesota was fine.

That's complete BS. We're supposed to believe that this "buyer's remorse" -- which apparently has never happened ever in 50 years of baseball free agency, spanning who knows how many overpriced players -- happened twice in less than a month?

after the DFA last week, Bauer was unconditionally released today. so if he's going to sign with a MLB team, i suppose we'll find out soon.

The Yankees and Mets have no plans to pursue Bauer, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Padres are also uninterested, per Bryce Miller of the San Diego Union-Tribune, and the same goes for the Guardians, per Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets that the Twins also have no plans to speak with Bauer.

i imagine he might go overseas

(xpost) I'm sure buyer's remorse is not unprecedented, but unless there's something tangible to hang it on, we'd never hear about it. I'm not saying he's right, but I don't find it utterly implausible--no more than any other theory as to why two teams deemed him a physical risk and a third team didn't.