machado has and seems likely to use an opt-out after next season, which no doubt had a bearing on the padres going after bogaerts
saw it claimed somewhere that the sox offer to him was under $200m (!)
― mookieproof, Thursday, 8 December 2022 17:52 (one year ago) link
The suspense is killing me slightly discomfiting me re: Dansby. I can't help but feel (without evidence) he's peaked and the Barves would be better served with a good-enough SS and a big push on LF improvement. (If they've already done something about LF plz ignore.)
― DPRK in Cincinnati (WmC), Thursday, 8 December 2022 17:57 (one year ago) link
can't imagine what Correa is going to get, being two years younger and better than Bogaerts. Swanson is sort of the poor man's Bogaerts, he's not bad if you need a SS but he worries me yeah. I think the Cubs will land one of those guys, I'd prefer it to be Correa for sure.
― omar little, Thursday, 8 December 2022 18:04 (one year ago) link
Honestly don’t see the Twins reaching deep enough to bring back Correa. It’s probably Swanson or someone more replacement level (the consensus is the braves aren’t bringing him back, no?)
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 8 December 2022 18:08 (one year ago) link
dansby's coming off a big season and he's a good player, but also his career wRC+ is 94. i don't see him getting a deal anywhere near bogaerts/correa/turner level
― mookieproof, Thursday, 8 December 2022 18:19 (one year ago) link
was surprised to see Correa's career bWAR as high as it is, considering how much time he's missed, but per 162 games he's averaging 7.2 -- which is way above the likes of Machado and Harper and some others.
― omar little, Thursday, 8 December 2022 18:34 (one year ago) link
Just to cheer up tracer hand:
Chaim Bloom inherited 27 year old Mookie, 27 YO Bogaerts, 25 YO Benintendi, and 23 YO Devers and so far has turned them into: Alex VerdugoJeter DownsConnor WongFranchy CorderoJosh WinckowskiGrant GambrellLuis De La RosaFreddy ValdezDevers still here, but not extended— Michael Dyer (@Mike_Dyer13) December 8, 2022
― clemenza, Thursday, 8 December 2022 23:48 (one year ago) link
devers will hit free agency next winter having just turned 27
― mookieproof, Friday, 9 December 2022 00:47 (one year ago) link
bloom is the leonardo dicaprio of GMs, all his serious relationships have to be terminated by age 27
― Tracer Hand, Friday, 9 December 2022 01:15 (one year ago) link
― mookieproof, Thursday, December 8, 2022 12:52 PM (seven hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
I mean, is this really so insulting? we will see how good a 30 year old SS with an average glove and average power looks in 5 years…then in 11 years
― k3vin k., Friday, 9 December 2022 01:28 (one year ago) link
dunno about insulting -- i just think it's notable that their offer wasn't even in the same ballpark, so to speak, as san diego's
saw a quote today (from farhan zaidi i think) to the effect that if you act rationally about free agents, you'll always finish third in getting them. there are no prizes for financial efficiency
― mookieproof, Friday, 9 December 2022 01:37 (one year ago) link
Bogaerts has had a couple of superstar level seasons but mostly I want to say he’s felt maybe just a little disappointing, at least over the last couple years. he made leaps in 2018 and 2019 but seems to have taken a step back.
― omar little, Friday, 9 December 2022 01:59 (one year ago) link
Not that he is anything other than a good shortstop but it really is going to be interesting to see how this contract looks in a few years.
― omar little, Friday, 9 December 2022 02:00 (one year ago) link
tbf all the contracts are going to look bad in a few years. someone pointed out that judge's deal is basically the same as prince albert's deal with the angels, adjusted for inflation/increased revenue
but hey, it's not my money
― mookieproof, Friday, 9 December 2022 02:05 (one year ago) link
One difference w judge I think is he’s coming off his best season (and one of the best hitting seasons in recent memory) while pujols signed the deal after the first season of his decline phase. I mean looking back on that final year with the Cardinals, red flags were all there.
Admittedly judge maybe just be signing before the first season of his decline phase but he’s in better shape than Albert was. I want to believe. 🛸
― omar little, Friday, 9 December 2022 02:10 (one year ago) link
Nimmo, 8 years 162 million.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 9 December 2022 02:22 (one year ago) link
Good lord
― omar little, Friday, 9 December 2022 03:50 (one year ago) link
happy for him but yeah
― mookieproof, Friday, 9 December 2022 03:53 (one year ago) link
Nimmo's deal reminds me of Jayson Werth's with the Nationals about ten years ago, at a time when people thought 4-5 WAR outfielders were the new market inefficiency.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 9 December 2022 17:10 (one year ago) link
Nimmo is a good player but he’s also turning thirty soon, how much better do they think he’ll get? The deal makes sense if he was in his mid-twenties and they were trying to lock him down.
― omar little, Friday, 9 December 2022 17:30 (one year ago) link
definitely seems like the trend this offseason is players getting (over)paid. pretty much every deal has been high. otoh life is more expensive in general now
― na (NA), Friday, 9 December 2022 17:52 (one year ago) link
The money seems kind of meaningless if you start to think about it. It’s a boring rant but I still can’t normalize stuff where people hold out for an extra $125 Million and it comes across as being justified.
― Michael F Gill, Friday, 9 December 2022 19:22 (one year ago) link
I mean a lot of right thinking teams have their core kids locked up for eternity that FA money is going to go somewhere
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 9 December 2022 20:39 (one year ago) link
minor league deal with the dodgers for jason heyward. is kyle hendricks the last cub standing from the 2016 world series team?
― na (NA), Friday, 9 December 2022 20:50 (one year ago) link
Senga to the Mets. Pretty crazy the amount of spending they are doing but they did basically have their entire starting rotation / bullpen on an expiring deal. I also assume some of this was supposed to be Degrom money.
― Michael F Gill, Sunday, 11 December 2022 15:34 (one year ago) link
I can’t recite the exact numbers - but what they’re going to be paying in luxury tax is larger than some teams payrolls!
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 11 December 2022 16:20 (one year ago) link
i wasn't thrilled with the willson contreras signing at the time. 5 years for a catcher in his 30s who is likely to play more at DH in the last few years of the contract
but i can see how it was the best of several options. i think most fans were hoping for a trade for sean murphy, or a blue jays catcher. the trade proposal for murphy reportedly was lars nootbaar, brendan donovan, and gordon graceffo (#3 SP prospect ETA 2023/24). 2 starting position players that could be sleeper all-star candidates + one of the best pitching prospect in the system for a team that will lose 4/5th of the rotation after 2023. that seems steep, but given the free agent market and player valuation trends this offseason, maybe that's just how it is? i don't know.
and on the free agent side, you see these 11-year deals and nimmo making bank and suddenly 5-years for an older catcher starts to look like a deal!
― Karl Malone, Sunday, 11 December 2022 21:27 (one year ago) link
With what’s happened in the FA market, Contreras was a pretty solid deal.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 11 December 2022 22:33 (one year ago) link
You know how poker players have "tells"? MLB.com has one too: when they start posting pieces about Old Hoss Radbourn, that's a tell that awards are over and off-season player movement is about to slow down.
https://www.mlb.com/news/old-hoss-radbourn-unbreakable-baseball-records
― clemenza, Sunday, 11 December 2022 23:14 (one year ago) link
Lotta moves this winter. Wasn't it just last year that people were like, who's going to blink first? The players or the owners, who aren't signing anyone? Well they are now. I'm going to need a cheat sheet to remember who everybody plays for. Feels like a kind of post-COVID reset for a lot of teams.
― Tracer Hand, Sunday, 11 December 2022 23:38 (one year ago) link
i forget the exact timeline but there was the lockout last offseason, too, basically from early December 2021 to early March. i don't remember the exact rules for trades and FA stuff, but i think most of it wasn't allowed during that time period.
― Karl Malone, Sunday, 11 December 2022 23:49 (one year ago) link
Many of the big name free agents signed before the lockout (Scherzer, Semien, Seager). Once the lockout ended there was a rush to sign everyone who was left.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agency-refresher-pre-lockout-signings-hirings-and-moves-you-may-have-forgotten-as-baseball-returns/
The freeze in signings was more from the 2019-2020 offseasons, when the owners were essentially gearing up to screw over the players as much as possible before the inevitable work stoppage.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 12 December 2022 08:06 (one year ago) link
There's still Correa:
https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa-rumors
I've lost all context as to the meaning of "massive" at this point.
― clemenza, Monday, 12 December 2022 15:24 (one year ago) link
Bassitt to jays; murphy to barves
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Monday, 12 December 2022 21:48 (one year ago) link
that murphy trade was pretty complicated. three teams and nine players (OAK, MIL, and ATL), and somehow the brewers received the second-best Will* Contreras (William, who may outhit Willson this year) along with pitching depth in exchange for Esteury Ruiz
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 13 December 2022 17:35 (one year ago) link
it's really puzzling how the brewers ended up w/ contreras i really don't get it... i wonder if the teams have diff statistical models than what is publicly available that devalue him or something bcuz otherwise i can't really get my head around it
― J0rdan S., Tuesday, 13 December 2022 17:41 (one year ago) link
Contreras not yet 25 years old and seems to have a shot at being the better Contreras offensively as Karl noted, it seems at best an even trade (with Murphy being 3 1/2 years older too.) Braves gave up six players to get him, am I reading that right?
― omar little, Tuesday, 13 December 2022 17:58 (one year ago) link
https://i.imgur.com/u8kJr8j.png
yes. i thought for sure they got someone else in return, in addition to murphy. but no.
also, what's weird is that imo catching was already a position of strength for the braves? they had william c but also they still have travis d'Arnoud, who was a top 10 catcher, maybe even top 5, last year? i don't know, maybe there's some platoon shit i'm not thinking of from the braves perspective
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 13 December 2022 18:17 (one year ago) link
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/three-teams-nine-players-one-surprising-winner-examining-the-sean-murphy-blockbuster/
it is weird but it sounds like murphy is a better all-around catcher than contreras or d'arnad
― na (NA), Tuesday, 13 December 2022 18:21 (one year ago) link
i feel like the brewers were just standing there grabbing a free william contreras for some reason!
i'm glad the contreras brothers will be playing in the same division, though, i suppose the schedule for 2023 makes that less notable than it once was
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 13 December 2022 18:22 (one year ago) link
no idea how they came up with these numbers but it doesn’t *feel* unreasonable
As reported, today's three-team deal:ATL: Sean Murphy, $51.3M median trade valueMIL: William Contreras, $37.3M; Payamps, $0.0M; Yeager, not yet in systemOAK: Muller, $7.1M; Ruiz, $4.9M; Salinas, $2.5M; Tarnok, $2.2M; Piña, -$2.6M ($14.3M total)Deal rejected by the model.— Baseball Trade Values (@BaseballValues) December 12, 2022
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 13 December 2022 18:24 (one year ago) link
also ross stripling to the braves, two years but with an opt-out after one
(who was the first player to get a deal with an opt-out?)
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 13 December 2022 18:28 (one year ago) link
sorry i meant stripling to the GIANTS
was it a-rod?
Boras also negotiated the first such opt-out clause, inserting it into Alex Rodriguez’s landmark $252 million deal with the Rangers in December 2000.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/03/07/opt-out-clause-contract-david-price-jason-heyward
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 13 December 2022 18:35 (one year ago) link
ah, of course it was a boras thing
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 13 December 2022 18:45 (one year ago) link
My god. Correa signed. This off-season…
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 14 December 2022 05:13 (one year ago) link
350 million/13 years
― omar little, Wednesday, 14 December 2022 05:14 (one year ago) link
Correa's going to the Giants; $350M/13 years.
https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/carlos-correa-13-year-deal-san-francisco-giants-1.1892986
Monster deal, not massive as reported earlier.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 14 December 2022 05:14 (one year ago) link
The length of some of these deals is just wild
40's the new 27.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 14 December 2022 05:16 (one year ago) link