HOT STOVE LEAGUE 2K4/2K5

as for kelly/sheff -- i don't care if it happened long after i was dead, i would not want a tape of my wife grooving on kelly's no-cry-shampoo scented cock. talk about being shamed!

She is 28 years old and the incident happened "more than 10 years ago".

Also note - he's only 28! (I just did a quick PECOTA check, & hoped to find Tom Glavine's name on his list, but no dice. HOWEVER, 1998's Jon Lieber (link!) is #3 on his list of comparables.)

They better make RFK into Shibe Park or the Polo Grounds. With a water-slide in the field of play. And mascots (filibusters!) running onto the field at random times to interfere with balls in play.

i'd guess the nl-to-al thing is 90% conventional wisdom, but i'll leave that to morbius.

chances are his era will be closer to 4.30 than 3.00, but in b/w the two, agreed?

If I'm reading the charts right, CP's bullpen support was among the worst (3.63) in '03 and decent (-0.83) this year:

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sp_pen_support2004.html

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sp_pen_support2003.html

Keep in mind Pavano's 2000 surgery meant he didn't have 30 (or even 25) starts in a year til 2003. Will Carroll, BP's injury guru, greenlights him:

"Carl Pavano (GREEN) - Here's a test case for pitchers. Pavano never pitched more than 136 innings before age 27, then jumped up to the 200-inning mark in his next two seasons. He pitched for a World Series winner, then got better the next season. He has a classic pitcher's frame, good mechanics, and everything but a strikeout pitch. If BP built a pitcher, Frankenstein-style, there'd be some Pavano parts in the mix. You have to be damned good to dump Alyssa Milano. (prediction: Orioles)"

The full Carroll free-agent report (non-premium!):

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3622

Kent has been healthy even as he's aged, assuming he can be kept away from "car washes." (Cubs)

Views
The Tigers now have two closers. They recently picked up the $4-million option on Ugueth Urbina's contract for 2005. You can expect they will be asked about this at their upcoming press conference; it's quite possible Urbina will be traded at baseball's winter meetings. Percival was reportedly being pursued by up to 12 teams, most notably the Indians, who will now likely focus their attention on landing free agent Armando Benitez as consolation. Percival's fantasy value will suffer a little in Detroit, as he will have fewer save opportunities than he's had in Anaheim, but will be pitching in a better pitcher's ballpark. The main concern with the 35-year-old Percival remains his health, as he has battled various ailments the last couple years and is certainly past his prime.

Vizquel made $6.25M in 04, he will make $4.08M in 05 (-35%)
Percival made $7.8M in 04, and will make $6M in 05 (-23%)

Those are some pretty significant pay decreases which do not look out of line for guys in their mid-30s who can still play reasonably well.

Vizquel: $15M/2yrs : $12.25/3 yrs = -45%
Percival: $16M/2yrs : $12M/2 yrs = -25%

http://www.movieactors.com/photos-sf/cocoon.jpeg

Beltran won't come to Chicago, I know there is some delusional thinking that it might happen, but I don't see it happening. Major free agent stars don't decide to play for either Chicago teams, it just doesn't happen.

I do think Jeff Kent might end up a Cub. Nomar won't be back, but I could see Chicago going after Cabrera, especially if they get Kent. They really need another left handed bat, but neither of these guys are one, so that trade for Sosa for Green could be good. I still have a feeling Sammy will be playing for the Cubs next season.

The Giants need to get with the stick and sign Moises Alou to complete the ancient ones.

The Twinkies also have a couple of ancients in their midst they could deal to the Giants with Terry Mulholland and Pat Borders.

They need to bring back Benito Santiago, he was the perfect catcher for their team. They would look like an Allstar lineup from 1993!

but there has to be some market for moderately-priced 2b/of guy w/ good average & obp, huh?

on another note: anyone see espn's ranking of fa's and projected suitors?

kinda silly.

i would bet that carlos delgado has become their prime offensive target. it seems that the magglio ordonez talk has cooled quite a bit.

hairston and roberts are basically the same guy. matos and bigbie are basically the same guy. gibbons seems to injury prone to make an impact.

markakis is a couple years off and has good power potential as does this other guy...walter something or other.

I guess Oakland is in talks with Pittsburgh, maybe Zito for Kendall?

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/nyspken214050892nov21,0,7933337.column

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ny-spken214050892nov21,0,7933337.column

Regardless, seeing the A's weather the supposed debilitating loss of their superstar has been quite remarkable. They lose Tejada, but get capable production from Crosby, see a spike in production from Durazo & Chavez, get a full year of Eric Byrnes' goodness and a damn good year from a (finally!) healthy Mark Kotsay. If it wasn't for Arthur Rhodes (& other bullpen pitchers not named Octavio Dotel or Justin Durscherer) blowing up in their face, and the Big 3 doing #2 on the mound for a short portion of the year, they would've played the Red Sox in the DS.

Is Jermaine Dye off their books yet?