aaron judge needs his own thread

I assume that the idea that Shohei is the MVP, rather than Judge, is a minority opinion, but curious to see whether the minority is 5% or 40%. So who is the best player in the AL?

People who respond by arguing that there is a difference between MVP and best player are morons.

— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) October 6, 2022

A minority of almost 60%...Surprised--maybe the MVP will be a lot closer than I thought.

silliness

Hey, where were you four days ago when it me vs. Tracer Hand and the world?

I wasn’t really interested in the AL record discussion, but the question of who should win MVP seems pretty settled to me. I wouldn’t take bill james’s selected twitter following of confused dads to portend much when it comes to actual voting

I meant more the question of whether they were legitimately pitching to Judge during that 20-game stretch, and whether--intentional or not--the strategy was working. Anyway, it's all moot now.

The interesting thing about the James tweet to me was just that he started out assuming one result and got the other...I wouldn't characterize James's Twitter following that way; honestly, to me the result suggests the opposite. I think old-fashioned baseball people--and I'll include myself here to a degree--see Judge running away with it; more analytical-leaning fans foresee a close vote.

I always find it, sincerely, incredibly confusing when people with analytical backgrounds like Bill James and Elon Musk do a Twitter poll and appear to take the results seriously. With Musk, there’s an explanation - he knows it’s completely unreliable but he is always trolling the world. What is James’ excuse?

I mean, I run a Twitter poll every once in a while because it’s funny but it absolutely absurd to take the results seriously. It breaks all 194228 rules of statistical methodology

James should never, ever have gone on Twitter. I don't keep up with anyone there, but from what he posts on his own site--where he constantly complains about Twitter--he just seems completely ill-suited. He's always talking about blocking people for rudeness, which I suspect amounts to them disagreeing with him. James is an old-fashioned, voice-of-God writer; I say it, you agree. He didn't start out that way; three decades of deification will do that. Even in the "Ask Bill" section of his own site, there is a sort of deference built into most questions.

Yeah I think he’s overstayed his welcome, tbh. I guess if anyone’s earned a right to be crabby and frequently and self-righteously wrong, it’s him

nobody's earned that right!

“If”!

Death to Bill James!

Seven strikeouts and counting in two games--looks lost right now.

I was lost, and now I'm found.

From a Jayson Stark column today:

Check this out. It’s the Yankees’ mountainous masher through 47 games in 2023 versus that same mountainous masher through 47 games in 2022. It’s mind-blowing.

HOME RUNS

2023 — 18
2022 — 18

MULTI-HR GAMES

2023 — 4
2022 — 4

MULTI-HIT GAMES

2023 — 13
2022 — 13

RUNS SCORED

2023 — 41
2022 — 39

RBIs

2023 — 39
2022 — 38

EXTRA-BASE HITS

2023 — 28
2022 — 27

PA/HR

2023 — 11.2
2022 — 11.3

SLASH LINE

2023 — .298/.410/.679/1.088
2022 — .303/.371/.657/1.029

Aaron Boone said he expects Aaron Judge to return this season but stopped short of guaranteeing it. “That’s an absolute. I can’t say that about anyone.”

— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) June 24, 2023

Yeah the second I read about the second toe injection, it was a bad vibe. Does Aaron Judge even have a toe anymore?

Torn ligament in his toe. Can’t walk without pain. Fucking hell.

Genuinely surprised that last night was his first 3-HR game.

As measured by games, fastest ever to 250 HR.

https://sports.yahoo.com/aaron-judge-becomes-mlbs-fastest-player-to-250-career-homers-034419437.html

Two homers yesterday, 3-4 with a homer and a double tonight--slugging over .700 now, and hitting just under .400 since he bottomed out in late April.

On pace for a 50 HR and 50 2B season, 11.5 bWAR, and so on. It seems like he's going to lock down that HOF spot fast.

Would have to check, but I think the last (maybe even only) 50/50 season was Albert Belle--in the strike-shortened '95 season, no less. And he didn't win MVP.

Yeah 52 doubles and 50 HR. Imagine if he'd had 19 more games. Almost did it again in his second year with the White Sox too, 48 doubles and 49 HR.

i guess you have to throw him junk, despite his [img=https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GPqDZ5RWAAAuPvy.jpg:small]slugging .642 against off-speed stuff[/img]? no good answer apart from walking him

.419/.542/1.043 over the last 30 days

Judge's OPS for his last 32 games (1.553) is the best 32-game stretch since Bonds in '04, and the best Yankees stretch since Ruth in 1924.

(I have him at 1.585 for 33 games...I think Kevin has a mistyped zero in there.)

third slash is slugging

that’s “days” not games and via fangraphs as of when I posted it

Oops, wrong--you're doing BA/OBP/SLG, of course.

is Aaron Judge possibly...underrated?

He's very scrappy, so yes.

sometimes he plays like if Edgar Martinez accidentally teleported into Richie Sexson's body

Was looking at some things he might accomplish this year, and one of them would be the highest single-season OPS+ by a 20th-century MLB player not named Bonds, Williams, or Ruth. Hornsby (222), Mantle (221), and Gehrig (220) are all bunched together; Judge is at 220. A real longshot to keep this up.

The really interesting thing I noticed, though--bREF's list of course includes 19th-century players and Negro Leaguers--is that Lyman Bostock is on the list for 229 in 1941, his age-23 season. Yes, as you might guess: the other Lyman Bostock's father, who would outlive his son by almost 30 years.

(21st-century, too.)

https://i.postimg.cc/tJvJtBnk/judge.jpg

Harry Heilmann!

Surprised by the absence of Williams, which probably speaks to his consistency.

I think I internally assume he'll cool off and don't check in on him for a few days, but clearly he hasn't. Right now, he has his highest BA, OBP, and SLG ever, and he's headed for another 60 HR and 150 RBI.

On June 18, I posted that graphic above on the hottest streaks ever. Here's what he's done from June 18 to yesterday: 37 AB, 5 HR, 18 RBI, .432/.523/.865.

mark my words: this kid is going places.

the kind of streak that the all star break will cool down?

As phenomenal a season as he's having, I came across mention of a Triple Crown yesterday, which was a little bizarre--he's 50 points behind Steven Kwan in BA.

It’s also barely halfway through the season. I blame MLB & various social accounts for constantly pushing “Cy Young/MVP watch” this early in the season.

As the biggest gun-jumper on this board, I must sit this one out. (But even I can see Judge is not winning a TC.)

replace BA with SLG and he'd probably get it though - it's him, big drop, then Ohtani, another big drop, then everyone else

I don't know if this ever went anywhere, but there is ineed a sabermetric TC.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/9/27/2450607/the-saber-triple-crown

Ohtani probably has a better chance this year tbh

Judge has a decent lead over Ohtani in all three right now; I think the bigger problem would be Judge or anybody beating Soto in OBP.