aaron judge needs his own thread

I was plugged in enough to know about Stanton but I don't think it got any attention outside of baseball media. Maybe Sportscenter did a segment or two about it. I actually remember thinking "huh, maybe 50 HRs isn't a big deal anymore"

it's still a big deal in that it's a target that doesn't get hit by anyone in the league a lot of years

I think Aaron Judge definitely fits the criteria of the fabled MVP candidate who carries his team to the postseason.

There was a little fanfare for stanton back then but it may have just been on the internet. It felt like way less of an inevitability though - judge reached 59 HR in 14 fewer games.

It was also the 2017 hitting environment where every team had at least 8 players who hit 30 homers so it may have registered as less of an individual achievement.

I do wonder what the narrative would be like if it were a famous player on a big market NL team this year, with the exact same offensive season as judge. Like if it were Harper or Betts reaching 55 with a full month left. They'd have to come up with something.

anyway real asterisk heads know that judge merely tied the *true* AL record of 60. ruth hit 60 in a 154-game season; judge didn't hit his 61st until game 155

I don't actually follow baseball anymore, but I have been following the Judge HR chase since I saw an article about it in the New York Times a few weeks ago. At the time I went to Baseball Reference to look at the single-season leaderboard and was astonished to see the Stanton 59-HR season on there, since I hadn't been aware of it when it happened (and Stanton himself is only vaguely familiar to me).

They'd have to come up with something.

they'd have to be more explicit about steroid-era records not *really* counting. this AL record stuff lets them elide that

Is there a parallel here with Rocket Richard's 50 goals in 50 games? That's been done a number of times now (5? 10?), and Gretzky scored 50 in many fewer. But Rocket Richard--maybe because he was first, and it was science-fiction-like when he did it--is still remembered for 50 in 50. Maybe when my generation of fans is dead, Ruth's 60 will be forgotten. But until then, I don't think so. One thing I'll never forget is the ending of Robert Creamer's chapter on the '27 season, with Ruth yelling "60! Let's see some son of a bitch top that!"

ruth is allowed to prorate his 60 to a current season length so the actual record is 63.12

ruth played before integration, though. don't think he'd have quite as many HRs if he was playing against all of the best pitchers.

this is why the true HR record can only be determined in a giant clean room cube, no wind, identical field for all players, 1,000 games played with all players rotating between teams for perfect equal competition. each "season epoch" will take 8 years

(xpost) That reminds me of some player in Ball Four (Danny Cater?) who was famous around the league (and ridiculed) for being able to calculate his batting average to four decimals as he ran down to first.

anyway real asterisk heads know that judge merely tied the *true* AL record of 60. ruth hit 60 in a 154-game season; judge didn't hit his 61st until game 155

― mookieproof, Thursday, September 29, 2022 2:44 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

judge has fewer plate appearances !!1!11

xp the room cube should be rotating too to spice things up a bit

And everyone should drink, smoke and whore as much as Ruth

Mike Greenburg is pretty much wrong on everything but I had the AM radio on eating lunch in my car a couple weeks ago and I wanted to hit him with a brick as he kept going on and on and on about how Judge deserved some more attention because Bonds was on 'roids. I kept thinking to myself the whole time, 'hey ahole Babe Ruth did not have to play against black or latin players' how about an asterisk for him too. Times change and the world moves on.

xp the baseball room cube should rotate very slowly and in every direction (like tommy lee's drum riser hovering above the crowd during a solo) so that over the course of 1000 games the cube has encountered every shadow/daylight possibility an exact equal number of times for each player

finally, we will be able to compare every player on an equal playing field

Saw one of the walks today, and honestly, it was infuriating. Bottom of the 7th, Judge leading off. The Yankees are up 4-0, the game is meaningless to both teams. First three pitches, outside and not even close, not one of them. The fourth pitch was very hittable: outside strike, good for getting your arms out, but Judge fouled it off. Next pitch, outside and not even close.

As with the Jays and a few of their walks, the Yankees go on to a big inning (four runs). Unless you're terrified of giving up #62, why wouldn't you go right at him? I checked the run expectancy matrix, and none out and a runner on 1st yields 0.831 runs. Judge homers once every nine AB this year, hits a single once every 6.5 AB, gets a double once every six AB; he makes out 69% of the time. I don't know how to put all that together, but the walk seems like a bad move percentage-wise. And even it's a slightly better move, who cares? Your team is out.

let us at least get to 82 wins first before we have to sacrifice ourselves to the legend of the One True Yankee

Fair enough--getting over .500 would be important to a surprise team. I probably assumed without thinking about it that they were already there.

But even as a percentage move, walking the leadoff batter when you're down four runs seems very iffy. (And believe me, the Jays were pulling exactly the same kind of stuff.)

well brandon hyde does also just strike me as the kind of manager who would view it as a personal failure if 62 was hit off his team

All the walks have probably kept him in the Triple Crown picture. Bogarts has dropped to .307; Judge is a couple of points behind Arraez. He's unlikely to have one of those 0-4 or 0-5 nights that could effectively end any chance; two walks a night, then he either goes 0-2 or 1-2. He needs to sneak in a three-hit game or two on a night he gets five PA.

i just want never to hear about roger maris jr. ever again

in their last 20 games, Judge and Pujols have both hit 6 HRs

or wait, actually Pujols hit one today, so make that 7-6 Pujols. take that Aaron Judge!

If I'm the Rangers manager, I'm gathering my pitchers together and summoning the voice of Casey Stengel: "You need to give this fella a chance--I want you pitchin' to him."

they should pitch however they think will best win them the game. no one should bow to the yankees

I don't see it as bowing to the Yankees--I'd say the same with anybody on any team. I'm not saying groove one, just that the games are meaningless, give the guy a chance; challenge him.

rather than try to win the game? okay

Pitching to someone means you're not trying to win the game? These guys are all professional baseball players, right? Pitchers included? Time and again the past two weeks teams have set up multi-run Yankee innings by needlessly walking Judge when either no one was on or there was a runner on first. I really and truly don't see where you're coming from. Texas is 66-92 right now. They're going to pull out all the strategic stops, stupid ones included, so they can what--finish 68-94?

If Judge gets all of six AB in the next four games, I see a sport pointlessly shooting itself in the foot--par for the course when it comes to baseball.

wait you think pitchers are self-defeatingly refusing to give judge balls to hit? out of like, malice?

what i think is that judge, like all truly fearsome sluggers before him, rattles pitchers who have to face him to the point where they can barely think. ruth and bonds were both consistent walk leaders. not because pitchers were intentionally shooting themselves in the foot. but because they were so good pitchers were scared to put it down the middle. it’s judge’s skill that provokes the walks. which as you have noted, are productive - so… if he’s sparking rallies then… wgaf?

i haven't watched any of the recent games. i assume since the rest of the lineup is struggling, opposing teams are happy to pitch around judge

i'm not sure if or how it affects things, but i don't the yankees think of these games as meaningless. they made the playoffs, sure, but everyone knows they've sucked badly in the second half. surely they are trying to win a few games and try to get some momentum heading into the playoffs (? maybe not)

maybe i just don't understand what "pitching to someone" means, but i watched most of the blue jays/yankees games people on here were complaining about recently, and i did not see pitchers trying to pitch around judge. they were trying to hit the edges of the zone and sometimes missing, but it wasn't fear-based, it was trying to avoid leaving a pitch in the middle of the zone where he could clobber it. judge has clearly been pushing too hard for the past week or two - he probably needs a break tbh.

Possibly Judge is just freezing up a bit, and waiting for that perfect pitch and is pressing, but I think he’ll get one or two more yet.

We didn't see the same AB then. I mostly saw pitchers giving him one or two pitches per AB, the rest not even close. Anyway, I'd be interested if these answers would be the same if it were your favourite player on your favourite team.

Could be just a situation where a pitcher doesn’t want to be posterized as it were. And the pitchers might be a little nervous in that respect too. Hard to say. I don’t think there’s a low key conspiracy.

Orioles took 2 out of 3 from the Yankees after playing pretty dismal ball against them all year, so I'm not gonna second-guess Hyde here; I promise you, Orioles fans care about these games when we're 50-100 and we care about these games when we're having a winning season, like now. Having watched this team all year I can tell you for sure that our pitchers losing the strike zone is in no way restricted to Aaron Judge.

I should say -- took 2 out of 3 by holding the Yankees to 2 runs in the 2 wins, so yes despite Voth's disaster of a start in the middle game I think the Orioles were pitching the Yankees the way a team that wanted to beat the Yankees would pitch them.

I looked at all the games since Judge tied the record in Pittsburgh (meaning last game of the Pirates series, then Boston/Toronto/Baltimore. (He didn't walk in the second Boston game.) Counting only runs scored after Judge walks:

Pitt - 1 walk, 2 runs

Bos - 3 walks 0 runs
Bos - 1 walk, 1 run
Bos - 1 walk, 0 runs

Tor - 2 walks, 0 runs
Tor - 4 walks, 3 runs
Tor - 1 walk, 3 runs

Bal - 2 walks, 0 runs
Bal - 2 walks, 4 runs
Bal - 1 walk, 1 run

You can decide for yourself whether whatever it is they're doing is working: 10 games, 18 different innings, 14 runs. He also was hit by a pitch in one of the Baltimore games; three runs scored after the HBP, which would make it 17 runs in 19 innings of giving him first base.

I'm sure everyone on this board, based on a mountain of evidence, would agree that the IBB is not a good strategic move except in extreme cases, like the one extra-inning game against the Jays. I find it curious how if teams don't flash four fingers, but kinda-sorta IBB him anyway, it's suddenly a good strategy.

(That should read since he hit #60 in Pittsburgh.)

Could be just a situation where a pitcher doesn’t want to be posterized as it were.

A few of you--not sure if omar was one of them--spent a couple of days arguing that the A.L. record was no big deal, which, if you're right (and again, I disagree), would seem to guarantee the pitcher is quickly forgotten.

I was thinking about this today, and I think in general the long-lasting infamy of pitchers who give up iconic HR is overstated. I remember that Al Downing gave up Aaron's 715th (and that Tom House caught it)--I was young, and that was a big one. I of course remember that Mitch Williams gave up Carter's HR, that Sam Dyson gave up Bautista's, and that Ubaldo Jiminez gave up Encarnacion's (though I did have to double-check his name). What I remember even more is who didn't give up Encarnacion's: Zach Britton.

Pitchers I don't remember: McGwire's 62nd, Sosa's 62nd, McGwire's 70th, Bonds' 71st, Bonds' 73rd, Bonds' 756th, Bonds' 762nd. I'm a little embarrassed to say that I don't remember who gave up Fisk's Game 6 HR, ditto Bucky Dent's.

jesus christ it’s not difficult, pitchers nibble against judge because he’s god-like this year, they miss a lot, end of story. it’s not a “strategy” or a conspiracy!

First 144 games, 94 walks; next 10 games, 17 walks. Don't think I ever used the word "conspiracy," but if you don't detect any kind of a change there...

Maybe the pitchers should conspire; the Texas pitchers and all the other pitchers can have a meeting before this next series to discuss their top-secret strategies that have been getting Judge out in 69% of his AB over the season.

And again, my bigger question: intentional, not intentional, nibbling, whatever--is this working? When they were walking Judge much less frequently, and he was hitting a ton of HR, were the Yankees scoring at a rate of 17 runs in 19 innings?

And if it isn't working, would it maybe a good idea to walk him less frequently?

clemenza. if they throw ball over plate more judge hit ball go far. if miss on heart of plate judge still hit ball go far. pitcher try no throw over heart of plate! maybe judge at this stage season more fearsome than early on! maybe reputation force weakness, error, who know! nothing "work" against hitter like judge! only less bad outcome!

If they were getting a, uh, less bad outcome, I might agree. You refuse to address that the outcome they're getting since #60 is terrible.

I know that your stubborness about this has absolutely nothing to do with you being a Red Sox fan, and that if it were Rafael Devers instead of Judge, you'd be every bit as understanding.