aaron judge needs his own thread

No doubter. he makes it look so easy

Worst thing is, on a night the Jays can move to within four, he's sparked this 9th-inning rally.

Thanks, Judge.

officially the triple crown leader now, too

I wasn't kidding the other day--I hate this.

https://www.mlb.com/news/college-student-catches-aaron-judge-60th-home-run-ball

You don't owe Judge or Cooperstown or the game or fandom anything; keep it and get as much as you can.

In six or seven years, this guy could have a family and a mountain of student debt. His five minutes with Aaron Judge may not seem so special anymore.

It’s so great that the two MVP contenders are just legend types like him and Ohtani. And if Trout didn’t miss time he’d be in the top three I’m thinking.

Wonder if we’re entering a new era of peak value consideration weighing more on HOF chances than accumulated value, and if it’ll benefit a guy like this. Judge has suffered injuries but the three seasons he’s been healthy he’s been ridiculous.

Probably a similar argument can apply to DeGrom, though Judge being younger has more time to pad out his numbers and I trust his health more going forward.

I may have said it in this thred but if i catch a meaningful HR ball im making it extremely clear that im shaking down the team/owner and not the player

Right--no malice towards Judge at all, who seems as likeable and as humble as can be. I just don't think you owe the "game" anything at all. I mean, the fans are almost the last consideration of the league anytime a decision is made.

(xpost) Yes to all of that. I suggested Judge as a possible HOF candidate on some thread in May, when he just seemed like the MVP favorite.

Agree that he probably wouldn't go in for bulk career numbers; was thinking more of a concentrated peak period. But, again, if he can stay healthy for seven or eight seasons, maybe he'd get to 450 HR by the time he's 37, which'd give him a shot at 500 (if that still means anything by then). But a couple of MVPs and a couple of WS would probably be a more viable path, and he's got a pretty good jump on both this season.

― clemenza, Thursday, May 19, 2022

I think the peak value Hall of Fame arguments for Votto/Posey/Mauer are going to work in their favor so I actually think similarly Judge doesn’t even necessarily have to reach any of the more fabled trad milestone totals. I think he might, though. His skill set is likely gonna age better than people think, he’s a big dude but he’s not Ryan Howard or Chris Davis.

The baseball Hall of Fame is moving more towards what they do with the NBA and NFL HOFs, which really reward peak value more and tend to value compilers less. Guys like Tracy McGrady and Terrell Davis getting the hall call in their sports are good examples.

trying and failing to imagine aaron judge on roids

give him speed and roids and he'd have 200 home runs this season

The safest path to the HOF is to start early (20/21), pile up a whole bunch of HOF seasons before you're 30, and build up a cushion that allows you to coast through your 30s--still playing, but probably only intermittently at All-Star level.

There might be a hidden advantage with someone like Judge, though, that will help you when you're up for induction. You got a late start, so you have to keep playing at an All-Star level deep into your 30s--36 or 37, maybe. The one thing you won't have then is that prolonged decline phase that Pujols and Cabrera and others have had. There just isn't enough time.

Adrian Beltre, Paul Molitor, and David Ortiz are good examples; they were great almost right till the end.

in his last season Ortiz hit 48 HR and led the league in doubles, RBI, slugging and OPS

nelson cruz is probably not making the hall of fame though

judge would need at least a couple more 6 WAR seasons i think before his peak is actually impressive by the current HoF standards

at which point hes not that far from having a worthy full career WAR anyway

Best season ever in the shittiest era of baseball.

At lunch, I had the AM sports talk on and they were going on about Bonds record not counting etc. ESPN made millions off that crap and said nothing about the roids at the time.

Don't have anything against Judge, he seems to be a very unique athlete. I was always impressed on how he moved in the outfield for such a big dude. He's definitely not Big Donkey Adam Dunn out there.

two doubles and a walk tonight

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/will-aaron-judge-gets-his-300-million-deal/

judge is having an all-timer season but i feel sorry for whichever team takes his next contract

(although, maybe i don't. everyone and everything has so much money now. maybe "losing" on a contract isn't a big deal like it used to be)

Before we go, however, there’s one other factor to consider that does help Judge’s cause, and that is Mets owner Steve Cohen. The parsimonious nature of owners hasn’t yet hindered Cohen and while he hasn’t been explicit, hints have dropped about the team’s payroll reaching anywhere from $300 million to $345 million. That leaves room for the Mets to get into a Judge bidding war, and I doubt the idea of signing the crosstown rival’s MVP winner makes that prospect less enticing.

yeah, money is no longer a factor. it matters, but not really. i need to update the way i think about contracts

(xposts) Would seem to be in an ideal spot to chase the TC.

1) Big HR lead, doesn't matter if he's walked or pitched around a lot.

2) Big RBI lead, people getting on base ahead of him doesn't matter.

3) Team has basically clinched the division.

So two doubles and a walk is a great game.

i think he should hit some more dingers

bit of a fuss because friday’s yankees game is exclusive to apple tv, seriously restricting the audience for potential record tying/breaking

classic mlb, really

you only need an apple tv login (which is free) to watch those games, you don't have to be paying for the service. which seems less restrictive than paying for mlbtv or espn or cable

literally the only ways i can watch a baseball game on tv without paying for it in chicago are apple TV, youtube broadcasts, and the free games on mlbtv

oh maybe you're just saying fewer people watch games on apple tv? sorry if i'm misinterpreting the issue

ya it's a real problem. I have a good streaming plan but Brewers games aren't a part of it since they got moved to Bally Sports, so I don't really follow them anymore. instead I just get my updates from 3-4 Brewers accounts on Twitter, which isn't exactly an engaging way to follow the sport. I don't really know who half the players are on the team anymore. even when I just had it on in the background I'd at least watch certain at-bats, hear certain names over and over, get engaged by the last few innings, etc. etc. feel like one of MLB's top priorities should be to get the games in as many homes as possible and for some reason they seem to be doing the opposite.

the current leadership are fucking morons if you hadn’t noticed and it’s been this way for some time

Re: his upcoming massive deal, I don’t see Judge turning into a Pujols type as he ages, he’s a more athletic player than Pujols, and seems like a guy with a skill set that will age gracefully rather than depressingly. Not saying he’ll ever do this again obv, and also obv anything can happen.

that said i kinda like the appletv deal, it makes mlb “cool” in a way and apple has to be pretty thrilled at the coincidence of this game being important in some way. but yes in general linear tv still matters and the rsns aren’t doing a good enough job either with their coverage or promoting it (with a few exceptions)

i have good memories of watching pretty much every yankees game of the 1998 season on wpix for free, it just became part of my life

xpost agree but the history of tall dude hitters isn’t usually one of graceful ageing

i think he will hit 50 HR at least once more again. 60 probably not, that doesn't happen much

you only need an apple tv login (which is free) to watch those games, you don't have to be paying for the service. which seems less restrictive than paying for mlbtv or espn or cable

(this is hypothetical for me) but if i were a yankee fan who shelled out for YES on cable all season, i would be bitter that, at best, i had to jump through hoops to see tonight's game

i didn't know that you could watch free on apple tv! but i'll bet a lot of other people don't know that either, or aren't prepared for the setup, or only discovered the issue tonight

it's just really poor that you can pay for cable or for mlb.tv all season long and now there's a different scenario for possibly the biggest regular-season game of the year

the main problem with apple tv is that the broadcast is just awful. maybe i'm being too critical but the games i saw with newport, young and keyser were catastrophically hard to watch. actively making it worse with every word, and constantly talking. there's also a west coast apple tv team that includes hunter pence (?!). i haven't heard them before but the cards/dodgers game tonight is also on apple tv, so i think that'll probably be them.

also it's a minor thing but the apple games use some sort of machine-learning probability thing that is constantly telling you weird things in the corner of the screen that technically make sense but are not illuminating or thought provoking at all, like:

RBI PROBABILITY: 19%

like, who the fuck cares about that? and i'm a stat nerd, relatively, i think?

it's besides the point, but also i think fangraphs did a short article looking into how accurate the apple probability shit in the corner is, and found that it was uh not good at all lol

oh dear i actually know keyser and had no idea she was doing this

i have no opinion on her work in general but was unaware that she had any background in broadcasting

(iirc she was one of the female reporters in front of whom that one *especially* assholish astros exec made a point of celebrating roberto osuna)

I was interested to see what sort of innovation Apple would bring to the table for the broadcast. Apart from the hilariously austere Apple graphic sensibility - which sat strangely in a sport better known for its love of retro baroqueness - that 'on base probability' text was the only really noticeable attempt at doing something different. Strangely they removed it for the Judge ABs I saw. Might have been funny to pop up "HR probability" for him. Start him out at 8% or whatever. I don't think it added much - although for newbies it might have been illuminating? Though if that were the point, a graphic might have been more effective. Like a bar that rises and falls, changing color as a hit gets more likely or less likely. But a real innovation for an interactive service surely should be the ability to turn this stuff on or off?? I would love to be able to turn on or off the strike zone box, for instance. Or call up all manner of stat-head nonsense - launch angle, spin rate etc - when I want, turn it off when I want. Seems like a real missed opportunity for Apple to show what a tech-first company can bring to live sports.

"Unfortunately I am unable to celebrate the successes of ANY Yankees, but I do have to grudgingly admit that Aaron Judge is perhaps the greatest player I have ever seen. PERHAPS; I said. Don't take it to the bank."

A guy who used to be in the Red Sox analytic department...He also calculates Judge at 43 Win Shares, best non-PED-related total this century.

Six walks in two games now. The IBB last night, sure--otherwise, hate that Toronto's doing this.

so lame

It was weird - a bunch of those ABs they got him to two strikes and then decide to start playing hard to get with the strike zone. I don’t know what’s up with that, but if they’re going to pitch to him, fucking pitch to him

I just checked. He has a .699 OPS on the season with two strikes - so I have no idea why they starting acting like they’re too shy to ask strike three to the dance all of the sudden.

Mandatory “Judge is unreal,” but …

I’m fascinated by the number of articles written on the premise that Judge isn’t using PEDs. I don’t know whether he is or isn’t but I do know I wouldn’t trust MLB’s drug testing program that much to a frame a story like that.

And please don’t read that as a sly defense of Bonds or whoever. It isn’t.

Long Judge piece by Robert Christgau of Fangraphs:

https://robertchristgau.substack.com/p/awaiting-62?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Judge will probably get two more home runs this season by accident so I think 62 or more is happening.

Bill James is crazy w that opinion upthread which isn’t to say this single season couldn’t be easily argued as the best he’s witnessed.